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BillyHills

2019 PGA Championship

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PGA starts Thursday

Trends - source Betfair

  • Six of last 10 US PGA winners had registered a top 10 in the event previously
  • Eight of last 10 US PGA winners had registered a top 20 in the event previously
  • Five of last 10 US PGA winners were American
  • Seven of last 10 US PGA winners were in their 20s
  • No player older than 37 has won in the last 10 years
  • Seven of last 10 US PGA winners were in the world's top 25
  • Nine of last 10 US PGA winners had posted a top 20 in one of their two previous starts
  • None of the last 10 winners were the defending champion
  • Seven of last 10 US PGA winners hadn't won a major previously.

Selections

Ricky Fowler EW 18/1 Betfair (first 10)
also backing Dustin Johnson EW 10/1 (first 10)

 

 

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Very much looking forward to this. 10 places on offer too. I expect low scores this week and not a big -16 winner like last year with Koepka. Only 2 par-5s. Will need to be a long drive and somebody that stays true because hitting bunkers here will give you bogeys, for sure. I can't see this going any better than single figures. Putting wont be massively important and more greens in regulation.

My first pick is Koepka. So solid and playing well. We all know what a machine he is at the majors and although I don't like backing a player to retain a title and quite short odds, I have to back him here. He looked good at the Byron Nelson despite it not being a major which makes me think he made that extra effort to make sure he was playing well.

Next up Molinari. awesome start of year and recent major winner. Also a recent golfer of the year and has T20s in 5 of his last 6 starts in the majors. Matt Kuchar is my next. Runner up at the match play and Heritage, he's rested and ready to go. Most important here is Matt is 2nd for greens in regulation

Sergio Garcia is a big price this week. Seven T10s this year. He's my next pick. Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner complete my 6 choices this week. Schauffele hasnt won a major but you would have to say it's when and not if he does. He has every chance of getting close here and has had strong results in the majors. Kiser and Pieters are my 2 big outsiders.

2pts E/W B.Koepka 10/1 Coral [10 places]
1.5pts E/W F.Molinari 25/1 boylesports [10 places]
1pt E/W M.Kuchar 40/1 betfair [10 places]

1pt E/W X.Schauffelle 28/1 betfair [10 places]
1pt E/W S.Garcia 50/1 betfair [10 places]
0.5pts K.Kisner 80/1 betfair [10 places]
0.5pts T.Pieters 150/1 betfair [10 places]

 

 

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Brooks Koepka is a good shout after his success last year. It seems Tiger Woods is building some momentum and confidence once again so he's a fair call at 13.00 with Bet365. I've been backing Dustin Johnson to win a major to add to his 2016 US Open for a couple of years now. It's not come yet but at 11.00 I'm very tempted.

In terms of each way bets, I'm drawn towards the likes of Jordan Spieth at 51.00, Patrick Reed at 76.00, and an outsider like Zach Johnson at 201.00.

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Fader- I think you mean High Scores.

I do agree can't see any player getting to double digits around here as a winning score.

Long could be the key but you also need to be accurate.

Torrey Pines South Course and Quail Hollow look to be the 2 courses that are most similar and have form lines tied in with players who have done well at Bethpage in the past.

So the easy starting point is Justin Rose who won at Torrey Pines and was 3rd at Quail.

Jason Day won both those tournaments last year but has not been completely at his best this year so far.

One player that really interests me is Joel Dahmen- 9th at Torrey Pines and 3rd at Quail. His average length off the tee is 291yds T113 on the Tour BUT apart from Paul Casey who sits 77th in driving distance he is the only player in the Top 20 for driving accuracy. He is from Washington which is another big plus and his 2nd at Quail shows he is not only playing the best golf of his Pro career he could also be suited by this course. Looking at the weather forecast with the overnight rain not due to stop until 6am this could give the afternoon Tee times an advantage on the first day.

350/1 + on Betfair

175/1 1/5 first 10 Skybet (150/1 1/5 first 10 Betfair)

20/1 Top 10 and 13/2 Top 20 all look good prices.

Gary Woodland and Justin Harding are also worth some £'s too.

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I'm going for Brooks Kopeka at 11/1. Justin Rose 20/1. Xander Schauffele 28/1 and the Major MC Machine that is Sergio Garcia at 50/1. Good luck all. 

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32 minutes ago, wichuda said:

Fader- I think you mean High Scores.

I do agree can't see any player getting to double digits around here as a winning score.

Long could be the key but you also need to be accurate.

Torrey Pines South Course and Quail Hollow look to be the 2 courses that are most similar and have form lines tied in with players who have done well at Bethpage in the past.

So the easy starting point is Justin Rose who won at Torrey Pines and was 3rd at Quail.

Jason Day won both those tournaments last year but has not been completely at his best this year so far.

One player that really interests me is Joel Dahmen- 9th at Torrey Pines and 3rd at Quail. His average length off the tee is 291yds T113 on the Tour BUT apart from Paul Casey who sits 77th in driving distance he is the only player in the Top 20 for driving accuracy. He is from Washington which is another big plus and his 2nd at Quail shows he is not only playing the best golf of his Pro career he could also be suited by this course. Looking at the weather forecast with the overnight rain not due to stop until 6am this could give the afternoon Tee times an advantage on the first day.

350/1 + on Betfair

175/1 1/5 first 10 Skybet (150/1 1/5 first 10 Betfair)

20/1 Top 10 and 13/2 Top 20 all look good prices.

Gary Woodland and Justin Harding are also worth some £'s too.

Woodland is another I liked. Along with Day and Perez. Rose is a good shout.

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58 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Brooks Koepka is a good shout after his success last year. It seems Tiger Woods is building some momentum and confidence once again so he's a fair call at 13.00 with Bet365. I've been backing Dustin Johnson to win a major to add to his 2016 US Open for a couple of years now. It's not come yet but at 11.00 I'm very tempted.

In terms of each way bets, I'm drawn towards the likes of Jordan Spieth at 51.00, Patrick Reed at 76.00, and an outsider like Zach Johnson at 201.00.

I think DJ has a great chance but I didn't want to back both short favourites. He will be great for the big long par 4s. Him and McIlroy will really benefit with their drives.

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I'll be on Woods outright at 16's on the exchanges and also McIlroy outright at 14's with Betfred. Tiger's driving is a cause for concern with such a premium on finding the fairway - but he's such a competitor and no mean scrambler as well and given that a single figure under par score is likely to get it done here he really should be in contention at the very least, especially off the back of his remarkable Masters showing. Whether he's able to withstand the physical challenge is another question, but as he hasn't played since the Masters I'm assuming that he arrives here in good shape and able to give it everything for (hopefully) four days.

McIlroy obviously ticks a lot of boxes in terms of driving distance and collateral course form at Quail Hollow, but the main reason I like him is that putting isn't likely to be the most important stat on this course and from what I saw of McIlroy at the Masters it was putting that was his major problem. The rest of his game looks fine to me and of course his form this season is good - he did fall away when last in contention the other week but I'll forgive him that as it's just something that happens now and then even to the very best players. 

I'm also going to tail @BillyHills again and back Fowler as that worked out pretty well at the Masters :ok

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A side bet I like is for there to be no hole-in-one. There's 1.91 available for this generally, but I'd have it shorter as only one of the par 3's is under 200 yards. I can't see it being like the Masters where the talk was about how many aces there might be.

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Interesting I heard the Tiger 4 majors this year was 1000/1 :P personally can't see him winning another one and certainly not a player i like this week but 1000/1 nevertheless.

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A couple to add for me :

I've stuck with big hitters this week as most have. I think An has every chance at such a big price for Top Asian. Obviously the favourite is Matsuyama but I find him so hit and miss and although the putter isn't going to be THAT important this week, I still think the price is good on An.

I'll take Rahm as 1st round leader. In good form. Rested and in the later tee time. Hits long and normally starts well. Which is the same kind of reasoning for Bradley. Piercy is looking bang on form right now and although I can't see him winning this week, I think he could start very well with the confidence he is playing with.

2pts B.An (Top Asian) 9/1 paddypower
1pt J.Rahm (1st round leader) 30/1 paddypower
0.5pts K.Bradley (1st round leader) 100/1 bet365
0.5pts S.Piercy (1st round leader) 100/1 ladbrokes

 

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5 hours ago, Fader said:

A couple to add for me :

I've stuck with big hitters this week as most have. I think An has every chance at such a big price for Top Asian. Obviously the favourite is Matsuyama but I find him so hit and miss and although the putter isn't going to be THAT important this week, I still think the price is good on An.

I'll take Rahm as 1st round leader. In good form. Rested and in the later tee time. Hits long and normally starts well. Which is the same kind of reasoning for Bradley. Piercy is looking bang on form right now and although I can't see him winning this week, I think he could start very well with the confidence he is playing with.

2pts B.An (Top Asian) 9/1 paddypower
1pt J.Rahm (1st round leader) 30/1 paddypower
0.5pts K.Bradley (1st round leader) 100/1 bet365
0.5pts S.Piercy (1st round leader) 100/1 ladbrokes

 

:lol It's funny seeing you post Keegan Bradley up as a selection. When I lived in my old house they were doing work next door and the bloke who was doing the carpentry for it was big into his betting. Always had a bet on Bradley at every tournament he was in. Bloody loved the guy.

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