Snoopdog

Week 5 Results
WOW what a great weekend! A perfect 5 from 5 against the spread yielded a profit of 365.63 points turning the YTD loss into a nice profit.
Week 5 Results ATS
Picks 5 Won 5 Lost 0, Staked 30 points. Returned 395.63 points for a profit of 365.63 points
ATS YTD record
Picks 25 = W14 D2 L9 - staked 150.00 points – returned 411.17 points resulting in a seasonal 2023 profit of 261.17 points
1. Jets to win ATS +2.5 points @ 10/11 – Jets win by 10 (31-21) WON
The Jets have played some strong opponents. Denver will be a nice change. Their defence will enjoy feasting on Russell Wilson and in a low scoring game give me the Jets with the points.
2. Bengals to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11 - Bengals win by 14 (34-20) WON
I shall stick with the Bengals even after last week’s poor performance. A loss in this game would mean their season is over.
3. 49Ers to win ATS -3.50 points @ 10/11 – 49Ers win by 32 (42-10) WON
The 49Ers are extremely talented. At home they e almost invincible.
4. Steelers to win ATS +4.0 points @ 10/11 – Steelers don’t need the spread winning outright (17-10) WON
I cannot believe I am picking the Steelers again after last week’s inept performance. Previous games against the Ravens are always close. Home advantage, a mean defence and injuries to the Ravens give the advantage to the Steelers.
5. Dolphins to win ATS -12.0 points @ 10/11 – Dolphins win by 15 (31-16) WON
Playing in the heat of Miami is always tough. The Giants could not stop Seattle sacking Daniel Jones 11 times last week. I am expecting Miami to go big (32-35 points).

I stopped using PP when they cut back on offering BOG for most meetings. Lo and behold, I get offered BOG on all UK and Irish racing. No idea how many get it.
Now in the habit of using B365 generally.
PP offers can be good; eg money back on 2,3,4 - but usually at poorer prices. I often use instead of each-way.
I understand overdoing use of offers is a good way to get shut-down.

I stopped using PP when they cut back on offering BOG for most meetings. Lo and behold, I get offered BOG on all UK and Irish racing. No idea how many get it.
Now in the habit of using B365 generally.
PP offers can be good; eg money back on 2,3,4 - but usually at poorer prices. I often use instead of each-way.
I understand overdoing use of offers is a good way to get shut-down.

Really looking forward to the new season.
My lad usually comes round and we have a takeaway while watching RedZone.
My selections will be guided by NFL.com Power Rankings and, after about 4 weeksa to settle down top picks from the Westgate Hilton Supercontest (published before the games). People have to pay ~ $1K to enter the contest, so there are some smart minds to gudie the way

Really looking forward to the new season.
My lad usually comes round and we have a takeaway while watching RedZone.
My selections will be guided by NFL.com Power Rankings and, after about 4 weeksa to settle down top picks from the Westgate Hilton Supercontest (published before the games). People have to pay ~ $1K to enter the contest, so there are some smart minds to gudie the way

Really looking forward to the new season.
My lad usually comes round and we have a takeaway while watching RedZone.
My selections will be guided by NFL.com Power Rankings and, after about 4 weeksa to settle down top picks from the Westgate Hilton Supercontest (published before the games). People have to pay ~ $1K to enter the contest, so there are some smart minds to gudie the way

Really looking forward to the new season.
My lad usually comes round and we have a takeaway while watching RedZone.
My selections will be guided by NFL.com Power Rankings and, after about 4 weeksa to settle down top picks from the Westgate Hilton Supercontest (published before the games). People have to pay ~ $1K to enter the contest, so there are some smart minds to gudie the way

I'm continuing to work on my back, then Green-up system,
The following are my daily pix with B365 prices at ~ 8.30am. In square brackets [ ] are B365 prices at ~10.30. We'll see the results and SPs.
BRI 2.40 Cobalt Blue 5/4 [EV]
LING 6.20 Topo Chico 11/8 [5/6]
6.50 Cajero 6/4 [11/10]
7.20 Belo Horizonte 8/13 [4/9]
7.50 Sparked 3/1 [11/4]
BANG 4.30 The Big Jetaway 13/8 [11/10]
5.00 Al Zaraqaan 6/4 [13/8]
5.30 Slate Lane 4/5 [8/13]
8.05 Police Acadamy 13/8 [13/8]

Following on from Siamor's Lay thread and the suggestion one of our regular's about backing certain horses in the morning, then laying before the off, expecting it to be shorter.
I've just backed Lexingtom Belle at 4/5, Wolves 2.15.  It strikes me as the kind of horse that will shorten.
We'll see what the Betfair SP is.

Following on from Siamor's Lay thread and the suggestion one of our regular's about backing certain horses in the morning, then laying before the off, expecting it to be shorter.
I've just backed Lexingtom Belle at 4/5, Wolves 2.15.  It strikes me as the kind of horse that will shorten.
We'll see what the Betfair SP is.

Following on from Siamor's Lay thread and the suggestion one of our regular's about backing certain horses in the morning, then laying before the off, expecting it to be shorter.
I've just backed Lexingtom Belle at 4/5, Wolves 2.15.  It strikes me as the kind of horse that will shorten.
We'll see what the Betfair SP is.

The big handicap at Goodwood on Friday is the Golden Mile. This heritage handicap is open to 3-year-olds or older and, as the name suggests, is run over exactly 1 mile. The off time is 15.00.
22 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
If you back a horse that is not drawn low you might as well tear your betting ticket up! There have been 103 horses drawn in stalls 8 or higher and they have all lost.
Shorter priced horses have a good record. Those with odds of 6/1 or less have 4 wins from 14 runs with a profit of 14 points.
Horses that did not finish in the 1st 11 last time have a record of 0 wins from 42 runs.
 
This leaves just 1 horse.
LATTAM 4/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

I think I was incorrect in stating earlier that the back market overround was an exchange profit. On further thought, I don't think it is. It's merely a reflection of available back prices. It has to exist - or you could back every horse in the race and make a profit. (Similar in lay market.)

I think I was incorrect in stating earlier that the back market overround was an exchange profit. On further thought, I don't think it is. It's merely a reflection of available back prices. It has to exist - or you could back every horse in the race and make a profit. (Similar in lay market.)

For yourself ' lays ' should be easy to identify,  you do it most days when you discard runners that don't fit the criteria to whatever system your using . 
Another angle is using habitual front runners , their price usually contract a few points .
Short price favs are a good source,  back early and chances are they will ' green up' before the race for a profit . Otherwise £20 on at , lets say 2.2 before the off, £30 order @ 1.46 in running = £10 profit assuming its matched of course which it should be . Whether they win or not isn't important as long as they ' green up ' 

Yes! There can never be money available to back and lay at the same price at the same time as they will always get matched against each other. It’s not like a bookie who can choose to offer evens each of two about a coin toss (I’ve literally seen that done on the Super Bowl). The prices are determined by the backers and layers and there can never be unmatched money to back and lay at the same price.

Maybe (and I could be thick straying into this territory) think of it like the bid and offer price with shares, one has to always be higher than the other. 

Years ago bookmake, Barry Dennis used to put up his "Bismarks" on Channel 4 Morning Line.
They could have made a lay strategy, though he was only advocating "avoidance".
They were short priced (reducing lay liability). Sometimes he would give 2 horses "coupled" in the same race to produce a suitably priced shortie.
I also recall a "Binchy's Lays" thread on this forum which ran for about a year.
It is an interesting subject but more difficult than it first appears. Stats gurus should be able to get their teeth into it.

just seen the above comment on Derby winner.......vibe on course from friend in text was also that he wasnt going to win!......
nb.....just spoke to him, said in paddock was on edge / not relaxed like Epsom, no huge late on course bets from pros.....so be interesting to see what connections say!.......just watched interview with Tabor on itv +1hr, he knew.....
other thing friend said, the money was for Westover on course late! 
nnb....no way he said ground was 'good, good to soft in places', he could see how it was cutting up, so again agree with above comment. ......
wish id been there guys, would have posted on here via mobile what ground was! 
 

So "red headgear" is OK to race in; but why choose red given the other use of red for pacifier hoods? So many colours to choose from!

So "red headgear" is OK to race in; but why choose red given the other use of red for pacifier hoods? So many colours to choose from!

Recently there seems to have been a proliferation of this kind of race - and I don't see why ???
I used to think of level weights stakes races as a bit better than handicaps but these are the bottom of the barrel.
Take today's 1.50 at Southwell as an example. The bottom three in the betting are rated 42, 43, 42 and are priced at 80/1, 80/1, 125/1. They have very little chance against the favourite rated 49. Why would the trainer enter them ???
Surely these low quality horses have more chance in a 0-60 handicap - even if a few punds out of the bottom of the handicap.

Owner wins £206 for 5th place, £413 for 4th , £826 for 3rd .

I think they're a useful addition to the calendar for very low grade horses
If you look at today's favourite ...... Destinado. He won a Classified Stakes last time but prior to that had run in 7 handicaps off marks in the 40s and couldn't win one. There must be a lot of horses rated in the 40s who are never going to win handicaps against 50s and 60s horses even getting weight from them. These classified stakes give them an oportunity to run against horses of around the same level
Of course there will be horses like the 66/1 shots here that are never going to win any kind of race ....... but it's cheap to enter your horse in a c;lassified stakes (£40) and maybe the owner doesn't want to spend much but wants a day at the races with an owner's badge and to see his horse take part. And there's always the hope that conditions of trip, track, surface might be ideal for your horse on the day and if he could just improve by 4 or 5 lbs, a length or two over a mile, he might .......... you know, win ! The whole sport is based on Hope !
 

A Class 3 Handicap should be well within the range of Hickory on the all weather at Southwell tomorrow, 3.35 race. A winner of all three of his starts to date and quite impressively too, especially so his most recent win over this distance at Kempton 71 days ago. He wont that day by less than a length but his win was a very cosy one and could have been further if needed. Giving a stone to a 73 rated horse that day and the manner of the victory says to me that he is still ahead of the handicpper of his new mark of 87. Couple his form along with the stable form of Fanshawe, 4 winners form his last 7 runers and the current price of 7/4 at the books or 3.1 on the exchanges looks very fair to me.............poor effort, finished fourth.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.