Racing Chat- Saturday 29th July

[Tedthewolf]

1pt e/w  3.00 Ascot-FOOLS RUSH IN 66/1 Corals bog 6places 1/5odds

[richard-westwood]

3.00 ascot 

Vafortino  9.0 11/1     4.16

Biggles   8.9  6/1        7.14

Northern express  8.6 13.5     3.70 

Bless him  8.2 

Safe voyage   8.2 

Very very competitive race ....safe voyage and bless him are lively outsiders at big prices but stakes at the end I'll try top 3 ...15pts outlay ...35pts profit any winner 🏆 

[The Brigadier]

Ascot and York are the day’s feature meetings with the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes run at 15.40 the day’s feature race, and what a cracker we have this year. A real race to savour. The ground is soft at both tracks so we’ll be looking for horses that love to get their hooves into the turf. Here’s my thoughts on the day’s seven races with selections to help beat the bookies.

 

 

Ascot 13:50

We start the days terrestrial coverage off with an eleven runner 6F Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for two year old fillies only.

There’s very little soft ground form here with the Amo Racing owned Komat the only horse to comprehensively prove his effectiveness on soft ground having won at Redcar in April on soft. I’m not quite sure she’ll be good enough to win this mind.

George Boughey’s Soprano is the current favourite but he ran to at Sandown on Thursday so has to be deemed doubtful one would think.

Clive Cox saddles an interesting runner here in the once raced Symbology who beat the more experienced Nighteyes 3/4L at York on her debut a fortnight ago on good ground looking a nice prospect in the process and can run well along with Charlie Johnston’s Sacred Angel who impressed when winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago on fast ground.

The Godolphin runner Dazzling Star doesn’t look anything too special having won a modest (by Newmarket standards) 6F maiden a month ago which hasn’t worked out that well.

There’s no stand out filly here especially with question marks over the ground for most but I’ll take a chance on the Cox runner Symbology each way to small stakes who, although winning on good ground, may appreciate some cut in the ground like his sire and dam who both won on soft ground.

 

SYMBOLOGY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

York 14:05

York’s ITV coverage kicks off with a nineteen runner class 4 5F ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap, a unique race where national hunt jockeys get the chance to ride the sprint track on the Knavesmire.

It has a very open look about it with local sprint specialist Paul Midgley saddling six runners, the best of whom may well be the Sam Twiston Davies ridden Glory Fighter.

2021 winner Soul Seeker, trained by David O’Meara has plummeted in the handicap since and races here off of a handicap mark some 17lb lower than that victory. He has little form on a soft surface however so is overlooked for that reason alone.

In a race where stakes are most definitely kept small the pick may well be the David O’Meara trained Speedacus who is ridden by the current leader of the national hunt jockeys championship Sean Bowen, who actually won on the flat at Pontefract for his father Peter last week with Supposedtobe. Relatively lightly raced for his age, this Slade Power chestnut gelding proved his liking for soft ground when winning at Doncaster a week ago for which he’s been raised 4lb for. In an open contest he’s worth a small each way bet.

 

SPEEDACUS 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 14:25

Ten fillies or mares line up for this 1M Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes.

The Irish challenger Cadeau Belle, trained by Johnny Murtagh, is unbeaten in two starts having won a Gowran Park maiden on soft ground and a listed race at Navan. This is a further step up in class but shes done nothing wrong and could play a hand in the finish with Jamie Spencer in the saddle.

Also over from the Emerald Isle is the Joseph O’Brien trained Thornbrook, a listed winner in France last time out who is could also be in the mix here.

Roger Varian saddles an interesting runner in the four year old Ameynah who we haven’t seen since finishing 6th in last season’s 1000 Guineas and is also untested on easy ground so is overlooked for those reasons alone.

Six of the 10 runners are three year olds including Cadeau Belle with the Andrew Balding trained Vetiver stepping up in grade but only 10lb behind the top rated and has won three times on soft ground so has her under foot conditions here.

The one I feel they all have to beat though is the Ed Walker trained, Saffie Osborne ridden Random Harvest. The five year old mare has won twice on soft ground and was probably out of her depth last time out when 6th of 8 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. She had previously gone down by short margins in group 3 and 2 company at Epsom and Ascot and as the highest rated of the ten looks the bet here.

 

RANDOM HARVEST 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

York 14:40

A competitive fifteen runner 6F class 2 handicap is up next and has a typical York sprint look about it. Karl Burke’s Lethal Levi heads the weights here and ran well on the all-weather at Newcastle last time when 3rd to Batal Dubai. He has claims along with a whole host of others including the only three year old in the field in the shape of Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who makes her first start in a handicap having had her wind operated on since last seen when down the field in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket in April. This represents a drop in grade for the Dark Angel filly and she can run well.

Kevin Ryan’s Hambleton Racing owned seven year old Magical Spirit is an interesting runner who won in the mud at Doncaster in April prior to an excellent third of 21 over course and distance 18 days later to Bielsa. His latest run on the all-weather can be forgiven and with conditions to suit looks the pick here to small stakes and an additional place.

 

MAGICAL SPIRIT 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 15:00

A wide open renewal with 27 spread across the 7F straight track. Biggles comes here in fine form, likes soft ground and has to make the short list with Ryan Moore on board.

Last year’s winner Fresh is another who can be competitive as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing whilst that wont worry Baradar who can’t have it soft enough.

One of only two three year olds in the race, the Richard Fahey trained Ramazan can also be competitive from what may turn out to be a favourable high draw.

At a monster price don’t be surprised if Fools Rush In outruns his odds and could hit the frame at a very big price.

A wide open race with Biggles the most likely winner with just a 3lb penalty for his cosy Bunbury Cup victory and with Ryan Moore on top. The only negative is his stall 6 which in the past has been a negative so for that reason the vote goes to the mud lark Baradar berthed in stall 24 and the three year old Ramazan in stall 21.

 

BARADAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

RAMAZAN 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345

FOOLS RUSH IN 1/2 point each way 66/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

 

York 15:15

Just the five go to post for this 1M 2F 56 yards Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes.

The warm favourite and easily the most likely winner is the William Haggas trained My Prospero who is taking a drop in grade here having run in Group 1 company on his last three starts. His best effort to date was at last season’s Champions Day in the Qipco Champions Stakes when finishing third (beaten 1/2L) by Bay Bridge and Adayar with the great Baaeed behind in fourth. He found the mile of the Lockinge at Newbury on his re-appearance too short for him in May and was not disgraced when fourth of 6 in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal meeting at Ascot in June (beaten 6 1/2L). A reproduction of any of those three runs should see him take this contest on ground that he’s proven on.

Roger Varian’s Royal Champion took the Wolverton at Royal Ascot but this is a step up in class for him whilst Owen Burrow’s Alflaila has a 294 day layoff to overcome as well as question marks over his ability to handle soft ground.

Johnny Murtagh sends over Mashoor from his County Kildare base in Ireland and is chasing a four timer with his best effort coming at Curragh last time out in the Group 3 International Stakes when running out an impressive 4 3/4L winner from Al Riffa. He looks the danger to the favourite if coping with the soft ground on the Knavesmire.

 

MY PROSPERO 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 15:40

The feature race of the day is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, a Group One race run over 1M 4F and has attracted an excellent field of eleven this year and looks like being one of the best renewals for many a year.

The two three year olds taking on the nine elders are Aiden O’Brien’s Epsom and Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the Roger Varian trained Derby runner up and Royal Ascot winner King Of Steel. There was only 1 1/2L between them at Epsom and as that was the latter’s first run of the season I would expect there to be little between them here despite Auguste Rodin’s trainer expressing concerns about very soft ground lets not forget he ran out a comfortable winner of the Vertem Futurity on heavy ground as a juvenile.

The soft ground has come in favour of the Owen Burrows runner Hukum whose form figures on ground with the description soft in reads 1131. Last seen beating Desert Crown at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May he looks a major player now stepping back up in trip.

Last year’s winner Pyledriver is back to defend his title having prepped with a victory in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but this year’s renewal looks a lot classier than last years.

The Gosden’s Emily Upjohn was a major disappointment in this race last year when pulling too hard but has bounced back to form this season with two solid efforts although soft ground may be her downfall.

An interesting outsider is one of the Aiden O’Brien quartet in Point Lonsdale who’s unbeaten in five starts on soft ground and could hit the frame at a monster price.

A race to savour but with plenty in his favour its Hukum for me.

 

HUKUM 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill

POINT LONSDALE 1/4 point each way @ 80/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

[Zilzalian]

Speed Figures for the King George

pyledriver                 136

augustus rodan        135*

emily upjohn             132

king of steel               131*

luxembourg              128

Probably one of the best races of the year so far,

* I have a niggling doubt about this years derby it my be an outlier with regards the figures, i say this having watched the race several times and the way the race was run on good to firm ground was always going to produce a fast time. so for me the three i am interested in are Pyledriver, Luxembourg and emily upjohn, at the prices it will be Pyledriver and Luxembourg. Pyledriver being the only horse in the field that has run 130+ on more than 1 occasion (4). Sometimes you just have to go with what you know and not what "they" say and we know all about Pyledriver.

 

[MCLARKE]

A good result for the stats last time with winners at 33/1 and 9/1 from 6 selections.

This Saturday’s big heritage handicap is the Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot. The race is open to horses aged three years or older. It is run over 7 furlongs and the off time is 15.00.

27 go to post and with many bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Those horses drawn in stalls 11 to 15 have produced 5 wins from 38 runs with a profit of 196 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder produced 4 wins from 171 runs with a loss of 141 points.

The first four in the forecast betting have provided 5 winners 39 runners. The remaining 170 runners have produced just 3 winners.

The ideal rest period from the last run is 15 to 38 days. These horses have recorded 7 wins from 83 runs with a profit of 143 points.

The best weight range is 9st to 9st 7lbs with 6 wins from 67 runs.

 

Only 1 horse matches these criteria.

VAFORTINO 10/1

I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

[Tedthewolf]

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY)

REUSE SELECTION

 

 

 

4(4)

 

Magical Spirit10/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4

14:40 York

14:40, 29 Jul

 

 

Extra Place

Best Odds Guaranteed

PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3

WATCH & INSIGHTS

 

 

 

10(14)

 

Intrinsic Bond20/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4

17:25 Ascot

17:25, 29 Jul

 

 

Extra Place

Best Odds Guaranteed

PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3

WATCH

 

 

 

16(8)

 

Soul Seeker18/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5

14:05 York

14:05, 29 Jul

 

 

Extra Place

Best Odds Guaranteed

PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4

WATCH & INSIGHTS

 

 

 

21(19)

 

Fools Rush In66/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5,6

15:00 Ascot

15:00, 29 Jul

 

 

Extra Place

Best Odds Guaranteed

PAYING 6 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4

WATCH

0.1pt e/w l15 =3pts invested

[ivans82]

Kodiac Thriller 1315 Ascot.......got left many lengths first time up at Windsor , still 2nd last  just over a furlong and a half out and still nearly mowed them down    

Alflaila  1515 York   just a massive price for a horse with it`s turn of foot   , My Prospero been disappointing this season , let`s hope it continues .

[yossa6133]

2 year old Ascot double.

Symbology 1:50

Sunway 4:15

Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.

 

That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

Edited July 29, 2023 by yossa6133

[richard-westwood]

525 asc 

Existent 8.7  10/1 

Significantly   8.5 6/1 

Arecibo  8.0  25/1 

Top 2 are a bit in front so I'll try 5pt ew  both ....arecibo is lively outsider if he runs to his best but he's in and out 

[kensland]

York.

Double. 

2.40. Lethal Levi    13/2    unpl

5.10. Dubai Crystal         15/2   unpl

singles & double. 

stk 6.00      rtn  159.00

Good luck all. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

Qipco ascot 340 

Pyledriver   9.0 

Westover  9.0 

Emily upjohn  8.8 

Very close at top but the standout bet for me is Westover at 12/1 !!.....seems plenty of value in that .....

@Zilzalian....he seemed to run a very fast time last time ???....or Am i miscaluating ??

10pt ew Westover 12/1 

[Zilzalian]

46 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Qipco ascot 340 

Pyledriver   9.0 

Westover  9.0 

Emily upjohn  8.8 

Very close at top but the standout bet for me is Westover at 12/1 !!.....seems plenty of value in that .....

@Zilzalian....he seemed to run a very fast time last time ???....or Am i miscaluating ??

10pt ew Westover 12/1 

I am totally ignoring french times simply because if i believe them then i also have to believe the 6 fastest horses ever have all run this year in France. Below average times on good to soft ground? That's impossible. Also Emily Upjohn and Pyledriver have beaten Westover comfortably in the past so i wouldn't go mad on it, i will stick my neck out and say not in first three against these.

[Moneymaker 777]

Ascot 13:50 - Lunar Shine (8/1)

Ascot 15:00 - Northern Express (16/1)

Newmarket 15:25 - Bondi Bay (11/4)

3 x 2 Units e/w Doubles = 12 Units

3 Units e/w Treble = 6 Units

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Moneymaker 777
Stake

[richard-westwood]

Exciting days racing for a change ....that 340 race is building into the race of the decade ...win or lose its looking like a fantastic days racing ....Good luck everyone 😃

[Brahmin]

Morning all, top class racing today with great selection to choose from, our fav at Ascot and also York. Again interesting and informative analysis from you guys. And from The Brigadier / Zilzalian / Mclarke / richard-westwood lots to help me with selections, of my own and choose from yours over the coffee / croissants now. Good luck to all today.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Brahmin

[Sporting Sam]

Gowran park

1:25

could well  be a case of after the Lord Mayors show for me today as seven winners  yesterday from 16/1 and 14/1 down always means a poor following day.

 THE FOG HORN

win

course and distance winner

switches to turf and could do anything on this heavy ground. Colin Keane rides at the top of his powers. Up twelve pounds for win here but there is always a little kept in reserve in Ireland.

The big outsider I fancy also is

 SALT WHISTLE BAY

each way

a nine year old but still won in June last year at Limerick.

but also won in the teen years back in the day off a mark of 83 at Yarmouth and also has similar period win including on this day at lingfield in 17.

if he could get it together he’d be almost 30 lb to the good here.

 

Ascot 3pm

Fresh won this race last year and for good measure followed up here in September. The mark won off last year was improved  on in September and while over last julys mark today is still under September’s.
For good measure, flesh’s warm up race was at royal ascot over an inadequate six and made up good ground.
As to the physics, fresh is weighted under a runner carrying a penalty and benefits.
For all that, I’m backing fresh each way.
The other intriguing runner for me in this contest is the horse who was badly hampered and lost all chance when last seen Escobar Frankies final ride in this race. It is inconceivable that this horse has not been laid out specifically for this occasion and if Dettori doesn’t go off too quickly should make a bold bid from the winningmost stall in recent years. There are also aspects of traverse law to support the top weight with so many runners running on penalties.
FRESH
EACH WAY
ESCOBAR
EACH WAY

Because of the shameful profiteering the price of Escobar will likely be in single figures at the off time so now is the time to back not at 2:55.

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by sporting sam

[Brahmin]

Sporting sam.......  ''could well  be a case of after the Lord Mayors show for me today as seven winners  yesterday from 16/1 and 14/1 down always means a poor following day''

you enjoy your racing like me, so hope all goes well today too 🏆

Not complaining as i did your last 3 selections with small stakes late last night 👍 with laptop on coffee table while we watching F1 film 'Rush' ......bit like me last Saturday with my best ever days with wins / placings and profit sooooo i had week off more or less and just done football few days this week!  ( thank god not done Sweden v Italy now, as was going to do 0-0 and a draw 😱 ....ITS 3-0 at HT! ).........

[calva decoy]

Just the one for me in what looks like a superb race & not over hyped for once , my cash is on the greenest 6 year old on the planet PYLEDRIVER 15/2 eway sky ( 4 places ) Ascot's 3.40 .

[ivans82]

Just watched back the Wokingham from this year and FRESH took the eye  .  For a 7 furlong specialist run a blinder , right at the back with 2 to run blocked and switched a couple of times and flew home  . 8-1 generally .

[black rabbit]

Spirit Of Light                              -            3 00 Asc/               1/40th of apt ew     40/1   ( punted yesterday ) 

Arecibo                                         -            5 25 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew   25/1

Timebar                                        -           1 15 Asc/                1/40th of a pt  ew        14/1

La  Guarida                                  -           1 50 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt ew        40/1

Tacarib  Bay                                        -            3 00 Asc/                 1/40 th of a pt ew    33/1

Bless Him                                     -           3 00 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt  ew    20/1

Barefoof Angel                            -           2 40 Yrk/                 1/40th of a pt  ew     16/1

Rodaballo                                     -          4 50 Yrk/                  1/40th of a pt ew      28/1

Rosallion                                       -          4 15 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt win     10/1

Outrace                                         -          8 00 Wns/               1/40th of a pt win     10/1

 

 

 

 

P/L     + 164.20  pts    

Edited July 29, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Zilzalian]

2yo races  speed figures, worst year i can remember for the 2yo here we are at the end of July and still the 2yo are well down on runs Royal Ascot was the first indicator with most the runners only having run twice and its not improved much since but we can only go off what we have so-

150 Ascot

1 La Guarida           123    28/1 (was 40/1)

2 Sacred Angel       120    14/1

3 Symbology          119+   9/2

400 York

1 Ganesha                         125     3/1

2 The Good Biscuit          116      2/1

[Zilzalian]

27 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

Spirit Of Light                              -            3 00 Asc/               1/40th of apt ew     40/1   ( punted yesterday ) 

Arecibo                                         -            5 25 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew   25/1      

Not touched spirit of light today so its bound to win i have followed it over a cliff this year 🤣

[black rabbit]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Not touched spirit of light today so its bound to win i have followed it over a cliff this year 🤣

well your a good judge so if youve had an eye for it over previous runs i would not desert him just yet 😀 

" Cairn Gorm" finely delivered at york last night  i did have a small bet  on it  was in simular position

to your "off a cliff comment"  i had punted it over the past 2 seasons  with zero return

"be lucky"

[Brahmin]

Ascot 1.50         Symbology  9/2       &       Sacred Angel    12/1  EW    Won 16/1

York   2.05        Sampers Seven    7/1 EW        &       Sound Reason    11/1 EW         &         Resilience    28/1  EW             5 places

Ascot  2.25       Cadeau Belle    9/4             &         Random Harvest       7/2     Won

York 2.40           Magical Spirit   9/1 EW          &          Music Society      12/1  EW           &       The Green Man      16/1 EW    3rd        4 places

Ascot  3.00        Vafortino     8/1 EW            &          Ramazan     12/1 EW          &         Northern Express   16/1  EW      4th          6 places

 

2 wins 🏆 🏆 and 2 EW places, a nice day so take that profit 👍

Edited July 29, 2023 by Brahmin

[azzybear]

timbar 1.15 ew 

[kensland]

Salisbury 

Double. 

6.45. Task Force       7/4        1st 

8.45. Seahouse          5/1

singles & double 

stk 6.00    33.00

 

Ascot. 

Northern Express          14/1      2nd 

stk £2  ew      rtn 32.00

Star of Orion       20/1     

stk £2  ew      rtn 52.00

Good luck all.  

Edited July 29, 2023 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

2yo races  speed figures, worst year i can remember for the 2yo here we are at the end of July and still the 2yo are well down on runs Royal Ascot was the first indicator with most the runners only having run twice and its not improved much since but we can only go off what we have so-

150 Ascot

1 La Guarida           123    28/1 (was 40/1)

2 Sacred Angel       120    14/1

3 Symbology          119+   9/2

400 York

1 Ganesha                         125     3/1

2 The Good Biscuit          116      2/1

150 ascot winner 16/1 and third is no bad result.

[Sporting Sam]

Newmarket 

2-15

Aablan

Win

not my usual but chas Appleby has won this race the last three years and the breeding hopefully will produce a repeat.

&

Aablan
to win by 2+ lengths 

Edited July 29, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

Have had a 2 pt L15 on the dally

3.00 Asc Vafortino 3 pts win at 11.5 (out of RW Growth fund) can't do the others but I hope that Richard @richard-westwood gets the winner.  Looks like he is trying to win around 9/4 for a 15 points bet.  Had 1 pt win on Star Of Orion at 21.00 (my hopeful PL Nap) and  0.50 ew on Arecibo at 16/1 for 7 places = 5 pts staked

3.40 Asc Can't back Westover as @Zilzalian doesn't think it will get in the first 3, so best to leave it I feel.  I agree about being wary of Aiden O'Brien's other runners so I'll have 0.50 ew at 125/1 4p (it will probably run better than a true 125/1 shot)

5.25 Asc Significantly 4 pts win at 7.6, Existent 2 p ew at 15 = 3 p on Betfair and chucked in Arecibo 0.50 ew 22/1 4 p = 9 points staked

= 17 points staked

Would like to do another couple of L15's if I get time.  Much more fun than singles bets

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

150 ascot winner 16/1 and third is no bad result.

Well done.  Did you back it along with top-rated or others?