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Racing Chat- Saturday 29th July

Tedthewolf
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Qipco ascot 340 

Pyledriver   9.0 

Westover  9.0 

Emily upjohn  8.8 

Very close at top but the standout bet for me is Westover at 12/1 !!.....seems plenty of value in that .....

@Zilzalian....he seemed to run a very fast time last time ???....or Am i miscaluating ??

10pt ew Westover 12/1 

Can't believe it ...beaten a head ....but I'll take that ...gutted 

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I am totally ignoring french times simply because if i believe them then i also have to believe the 6 fastest horses ever have all run this year in France. Below average times on good to soft ground? That's impossible. Also Emily Upjohn and Pyledriver have beaten Westover comfortably in the past so i wouldn't go mad on it, i will stick my neck out and say not in first three against these.

Well @richard-westwood Just shows, it nearly did it. Very strange race indeed Tabor knew Rodin wasn't going to win how? bit strung out the others. Can't really argue with HUkum its a very hard horse to get a line on. Race time will be interesting.

The Race times at Ascot tell me that it was soft and the softer side of soft at that. Good to soft was the official going description which was naughty and not fair on punters.

Edited by Zilzalian
update
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Brahmin

Brahmin

Posted
Posted (edited)

just seen the above comment on Derby winner.......vibe on course from friend in text was also that he wasnt going to win!......

nb.....just spoke to him, said in paddock was on edge / not relaxed like Epsom, no huge late on course bets from pros.....so be interesting to see what connections say!.......just watched interview with Tabor on itv +1hr, he knew.....

other thing friend said, the money was for Westover on course late! 

nnb....no way he said ground was 'good, good to soft in places', he could see how it was cutting up, so again agree with above comment. ......

wish id been there guys, would have posted on here via mobile what ground was! 

 

Edited by Brahmin
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

Newcastle 5pm

AMOURIE

SHIFTER

Both win

amourie stopped suddenly when last seen a beaten favourite. Trainer said he hadn’t stood too much racing. Out since April. Yard without a winner since April and horse three pounds above last winning mark. That is surmountable just as opening mark still five pounds higher.

Edited by sporting sam
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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
On 7/28/2023 at 5:11 PM, Tedthewolf said:
LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY)
REUSE SELECTION
 
 
 
4(4)
 
Magical Spirit10/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
14:40 York
14:40, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3
 
 
 
10(14)
 
Intrinsic Bond20/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
17:25 Ascot
17:25, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3
 
 
 
16(8)
 
Soul Seeker18/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5
14:05 York
14:05, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4
 
 
 
21(19)
 
Fools Rush In66/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5,6
15:00 Ascot
15:00, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 6 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4
0.1pt e/w l15 =3pts invested

 Great effort ted 👍

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Brahmin

Brahmin

Posted
Posted (edited)

Worth a shot to see if can win free Indian takeaway for later 😎

york 5.45    Just Janet     5/1 EW         &       Craven   15/2  EW     2nd        &     B Assosiates     14/1 EW             5 places 

 

Edited by Brahmin
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Have had a 2 pt L15 on the dally

3.00 Asc Vafortino 3 pts win at 11.5 (out of RW Growth fund) can't do the others but I hope that Richard @richard-westwood gets the winner.  Looks like he is trying to win around 9/4 for a 15 points bet.  Had 1 pt win on Star Of Orion at 21.00 (my hopeful PL Nap) and  0.50 ew on Arecibo at 16/1 for 7 places = 5 pts staked

3.40 Asc Can't back Westover as @Zilzalian doesn't think it will get in the first 3, so best to leave it I feel.  I agree about being wary of Aiden O'Brien's other runners so I'll have 0.50 ew at 125/1 4p (it will probably run better than a true 125/1 shot)

5.25 Asc Significantly 4 pts win at 7.6, Existent 2 p ew at 15 = 3 p on Betfair and chucked in Arecibo 0.50 ew 22/1 4 p = 9 points staked

= 17 points staked

Would like to do another couple of L15's if I get time.  Much more fun than singles bets

No luck so far.  Have posted another L15 on the daily and have included the remaining two on the first L15 = 2 points

19 points staked so far

Very well done to @The Brigadier today he has done his followers proud

 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
On 7/28/2023 at 8:12 AM, The Brigadier said:
Ascot and York are the day’s feature meetings with the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes run at 15.40 the day’s feature race, and what a cracker we have this year. A real race to savour. The ground is soft at both tracks so we’ll be looking for horses that love to get their hooves into the turf. Here’s my thoughts on the day’s seven races with selections to help beat the bookies.
 
 
Ascot 13:50
We start the days terrestrial coverage off with an eleven runner 6F Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for two year old fillies only.
There’s very little soft ground form here with the Amo Racing owned Komat the only horse to comprehensively prove his effectiveness on soft ground having won at Redcar in April on soft. I’m not quite sure she’ll be good enough to win this mind.
George Boughey’s Soprano is the current favourite but he ran to at Sandown on Thursday so has to be deemed doubtful one would think.
Clive Cox saddles an interesting runner here in the once raced Symbology who beat the more experienced Nighteyes 3/4L at York on her debut a fortnight ago on good ground looking a nice prospect in the process and can run well along with Charlie Johnston’s Sacred Angel who impressed when winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago on fast ground.
The Godolphin runner Dazzling Star doesn’t look anything too special having won a modest (by Newmarket standards) 6F maiden a month ago which hasn’t worked out that well.
There’s no stand out filly here especially with question marks over the ground for most but I’ll take a chance on the Cox runner Symbology each way to small stakes who, although winning on good ground, may appreciate some cut in the ground like his sire and dam who both won on soft ground.
 
SYMBOLOGY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365
 
York 14:05
York’s ITV coverage kicks off with a nineteen runner class 4 5F ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap, a unique race where national hunt jockeys get the chance to ride the sprint track on the Knavesmire.
It has a very open look about it with local sprint specialist Paul Midgley saddling six runners, the best of whom may well be the Sam Twiston Davies ridden Glory Fighter.
2021 winner Soul Seeker, trained by David O’Meara has plummeted in the handicap since and races here off of a handicap mark some 17lb lower than that victory. He has little form on a soft surface however so is overlooked for that reason alone.
In a race where stakes are most definitely kept small the pick may well be the David O’Meara trained Speedacus who is ridden by the current leader of the national hunt jockeys championship Sean Bowen, who actually won on the flat at Pontefract for his father Peter last week with Supposedtobe. Relatively lightly raced for his age, this Slade Power chestnut gelding proved his liking for soft ground when winning at Doncaster a week ago for which he’s been raised 4lb for. In an open contest he’s worth a small each way bet.
 
SPEEDACUS 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 14:25
Ten fillies or mares line up for this 1M Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes.
The Irish challenger Cadeau Belle, trained by Johnny Murtagh, is unbeaten in two starts having won a Gowran Park maiden on soft ground and a listed race at Navan. This is a further step up in class but shes done nothing wrong and could play a hand in the finish with Jamie Spencer in the saddle.
Also over from the Emerald Isle is the Joseph O’Brien trained Thornbrook, a listed winner in France last time out who is could also be in the mix here.
Roger Varian saddles an interesting runner in the four year old Ameynah who we haven’t seen since finishing 6th in last season’s 1000 Guineas and is also untested on easy ground so is overlooked for those reasons alone.
Six of the 10 runners are three year olds including Cadeau Belle with the Andrew Balding trained Vetiver stepping up in grade but only 10lb behind the top rated and has won three times on soft ground so has her under foot conditions here.
The one I feel they all have to beat though is the Ed Walker trained, Saffie Osborne ridden Random Harvest. The five year old mare has won twice on soft ground and was probably out of her depth last time out when 6th of 8 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. She had previously gone down by short margins in group 3 and 2 company at Epsom and Ascot and as the highest rated of the ten looks the bet here.
 
RANDOM HARVEST 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365
 
York 14:40
A competitive fifteen runner 6F class 2 handicap is up next and has a typical York sprint look about it. Karl Burke’s Lethal Levi heads the weights here and ran well on the all-weather at Newcastle last time when 3rd to Batal Dubai. He has claims along with a whole host of others including the only three year old in the field in the shape of Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who makes her first start in a handicap having had her wind operated on since last seen when down the field in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket in April. This represents a drop in grade for the Dark Angel filly and she can run well.
Kevin Ryan’s Hambleton Racing owned seven year old Magical Spirit is an interesting runner who won in the mud at Doncaster in April prior to an excellent third of 21 over course and distance 18 days later to Bielsa. His latest run on the all-weather can be forgiven and with conditions to suit looks the pick here to small stakes and an additional place.
 
MAGICAL SPIRIT 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 15:00
A wide open renewal with 27 spread across the 7F straight track. Biggles comes here in fine form, likes soft ground and has to make the short list with Ryan Moore on board.
Last year’s winner Fresh is another who can be competitive as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing whilst that wont worry Baradar who can’t have it soft enough.
One of only two three year olds in the race, the Richard Fahey trained Ramazan can also be competitive from what may turn out to be a favourable high draw.
At a monster price don’t be surprised if Fools Rush In outruns his odds and could hit the frame at a very big price.
A wide open race with Biggles the most likely winner with just a 3lb penalty for his cosy Bunbury Cup victory and with Ryan Moore on top. The only negative is his stall 6 which in the past has been a negative so for that reason the vote goes to the mud lark Baradar berthed in stall 24 and the three year old Ramazan in stall 21.
 
BARADAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345
RAMAZAN 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345
FOOLS RUSH IN 1/2 point each way 66/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
 
York 15:15
Just the five go to post for this 1M 2F 56 yards Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes.
The warm favourite and easily the most likely winner is the William Haggas trained My Prospero who is taking a drop in grade here having run in Group 1 company on his last three starts. His best effort to date was at last season’s Champions Day in the Qipco Champions Stakes when finishing third (beaten 1/2L) by Bay Bridge and Adayar with the great Baaeed behind in fourth. He found the mile of the Lockinge at Newbury on his re-appearance too short for him in May and was not disgraced when fourth of 6 in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal meeting at Ascot in June (beaten 6 1/2L). A reproduction of any of those three runs should see him take this contest on ground that he’s proven on.
Roger Varian’s Royal Champion took the Wolverton at Royal Ascot but this is a step up in class for him whilst Owen Burrow’s Alflaila has a 294 day layoff to overcome as well as question marks over his ability to handle soft ground.
Johnny Murtagh sends over Mashoor from his County Kildare base in Ireland and is chasing a four timer with his best effort coming at Curragh last time out in the Group 3 International Stakes when running out an impressive 4 3/4L winner from Al Riffa. He looks the danger to the favourite if coping with the soft ground on the Knavesmire.
 
MY PROSPERO 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill
 
Ascot 15:40
The feature race of the day is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, a Group One race run over 1M 4F and has attracted an excellent field of eleven this year and looks like being one of the best renewals for many a year.
The two three year olds taking on the nine elders are Aiden O’Brien’s Epsom and Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the Roger Varian trained Derby runner up and Royal Ascot winner King Of Steel. There was only 1 1/2L between them at Epsom and as that was the latter’s first run of the season I would expect there to be little between them here despite Auguste Rodin’s trainer expressing concerns about very soft ground lets not forget he ran out a comfortable winner of the Vertem Futurity on heavy ground as a juvenile.
The soft ground has come in favour of the Owen Burrows runner Hukum whose form figures on ground with the description soft in reads 1131. Last seen beating Desert Crown at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May he looks a major player now stepping back up in trip.
Last year’s winner Pyledriver is back to defend his title having prepped with a victory in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but this year’s renewal looks a lot classier than last years.
The Gosden’s Emily Upjohn was a major disappointment in this race last year when pulling too hard but has bounced back to form this season with two solid efforts although soft ground may be her downfall.
An interesting outsider is one of the Aiden O’Brien quartet in Point Lonsdale who’s unbeaten in five starts on soft ground and could hit the frame at a monster price.
A race to savour but with plenty in his favour its Hukum for me.
 
HUKUM 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill
POINT LONSDALE 1/4 point each way @ 80/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

well done brig ! 👏

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No luck so far.  Have posted another L15 on the daily and have included the remaining two on the first L15 = 2 points

19 points staked so far

Very well done to @The Brigadier today he has done his followers proud

 

Crappy day.  2 pts win on Jax Edge at 9.2 in the 8.15 Sals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Complete blank day.  Therefore - 21 points

L15 MTD  -18.26 YTD  +89.24

RC MTD +6.22 YTD  +24.76

RW Growth fund -12 = MTD  +27.53 (Poss 11 pts to be staked on next events).  @richard-westwood was spot on with Westover.  Should have had a reverse forecast with @TheBrigadier's selections.  Isn't hindsight wonderful.

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Spirit Of Light                              -            3 00 Asc/               1/40th of apt ew     40/1   ( punted yesterday ) 

Arecibo                                         -            5 25 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew   25/1

Timebar                                        -           1 15 Asc/                1/40th of a pt  ew        14/1

La  Guarida                                  -           1 50 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt ew        40/1

Tacarib  Bay                                        -            3 00 Asc/                 1/40 th of a pt ew    33/1

Bless Him                                     -           3 00 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt  ew    20/1

Barefoof Angel                            -           2 40 Yrk/                 1/40th of a pt  ew     16/1

Rodaballo                                     -          4 50 Yrk/                  1/40th of a pt ew      28/1

Rosallion                                       -          4 15 Asc/                 1/40th of a pt win     10/1

Outrace                                         -          8 00 Wns/               1/40th of a pt win     10/1

 

 

 

 

P/L     + 164.20  pts    

      one  winner  and place return one other

Edited by black rabbit
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 7/28/2023 at 5:11 PM, Tedthewolf said:
LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY)
REUSE SELECTION
 
 
 
4(4)
 
Magical Spirit10/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
14:40 York
14:40, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3
 
 
 
10(14)
 
Intrinsic Bond20/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
17:25 Ascot
17:25, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3
 
 
 
16(8)
 
Soul Seeker18/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5
14:05 York
14:05, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4
 
 
 
21(19)
 
Fools Rush In66/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5,6
15:00 Ascot
15:00, 29 Jul
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 6 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4
0.1pt e/w l15 =3pts invested

A nice return with a 25/1 & 20/1 winners ( r4 10p) and 66/1 placed.  Magical Spirit ran well but could only mange 6th i'm a bit annoyed because it was close between it and 4th placed  summerghand   choose the wrong one would have been nice to have got the 4 placed  however it is a very decent 113,38 pts returned

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ivans82

ivans82

Posted
Posted

Auguste Rodin just scraped home all out in the Irish Derby , maybe went to the well once too often .

Paddington also has had a hard season especially it`s last run , so i`d be wary at Goodwood , although the opposition isn`t that strong .

Kinross and Coltrane the weeks bankers .

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