Maiden Race Selections 2021

[santos_]

Hi all, used to frequent these forums a while back and had a few succesful threads such as ratings and a maiden race thread. Have a bit more time to get back to doing this now so thought I'd start it up again for this year. 

To keep things simple all bets will be to a 1pts win with BOG. 
Hopefully it can be as succesful as it was previously. 

Cheers  

[vikki37]

welcome back and good luck. ??

[MCLARKE]

Welcome back. Looking forward to your selections.

I used to be quite successful with maidens but then I think the structure of racing changed a bit a few years back when novice races were introduced.

[santos_]

3 hours ago, vikki37 said:

welcome back and good luck. ??

Thanks! no maidens today though!,  so will post up start of week

[santos_]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Welcome back. Looking forward to your selections.

I used to be quite successful with maidens but then I think the structure of racing changed a bit a few years back when novice races were introduced.

Yeah it did change a bit, Also won't bet in every race if I'm not that keen have zero ideas about newcomers etc 

[Trotter]

I had a bit of luck sticking up 2 year old maiden runners in the Nap of the Day thread so I might post a few selections here

It's a different test than the usual races for older horses ...... not much, if any, form to go on so you're mainly at looking at breeding and  trainer patterns, eg if they get them ready first time, if they improve with racing, if they have favourite tracks to introduce their better horses etc

[Villa Chris]

I avoid maidens like the plague. Reason being I need more info to go off, and looking at the breeding side of things doesn’t interest me. Some enjoy it which is fair enough, but it’s not my gig. 

[santos_]

Ayr 1.00 - Fille De La Lune (1pts win, 4/1 Bet365 BOG)
Was green on debut, started slowly and got a long way back before gradually making up ground. Finished 2nd of 7 and 5 lengths off the leader but should have come on for that run and can make a bold bid here.  

Windsor 8.10 - Future (1pts win, 1pts win, 2/1 Bet Victor BOG)  
Ran ok on debut when sent off a 10/1 shot at Chelmsford finishing 4th of 12. Finished off the race well and even though there are 14 runners here I don't think theres too much else that makes appeal to me.  

[Trotter]

I like to look at two year olds having their 2nd run, who showed promise on their first run and who's trainers likes to 'leave a bit to work on' with debut runners*

A big plus factor is horses who made their debuts at Newbury or Ascot and are now running at lesser tracks

*when I was following this a few years ago I made notes on trainers (approximately two hundred of them) with a quick summary of their usual methods with first time runners, whether they had two year old winners, any quirks of track or going which suited their horses best etc. But that was a few years ago and the trainer ranks have changed since then as some retire and new ones come along, Plus some trainers just change their modus operandi. ....... so my notes are a bit outdated

I also check out how horses that finished around todays riners in their debut races have fared since

 

Ayr 1.00

Now a NR so only 4 go. Two runners are having their second outing ..... Fille de la Lune (K Burke) as flagged up by Santos and Turn Back Time (M Johnston)

There is a clear form line with this one ........ the horse that beat Fille de la Lune by 5L was beaten next time out by Turn Back Time in his debut race. Also my (out of date) notes indicate that Burke's horses are usually pretty straight first time whereas Johnson's do improve for a run. 

So I'm going for Turn Back Time at 13/8 bet365

 

 

[Trotter]

7.05 Windsor

Two horses catch my eye ....... both ran in the same maiden race at Newbury on debut and having their second runs today

Hersilia finished 5th
Piffle finished 7th

Both are 2/1 at bet365

Normally I would back the one that finished in front but I have a feeling the places might be reversed so I'm going with 

Piffle 2/1 bet365

By the way that Newbury form hasn't particularly worked out so ther might be some value in one of the bigger priced ones or an EW shot

So how about EW - Petal Power 28/1 bet365 - ran at Newbury on debut, second run today, Mick Channon trained

[Trotter]

30 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Ayr 1.00

Now a NR so only 4 go. Two runners are having their second outing ..... Fille de la Lune (K Burke) as flagged up by Santos and Turn Back Time (M Johnston)

There is a clear form line with this one ........ the horse that beat Fille de la Lune by 5L was beaten next time out by Turn Back Time in his debut race. Also my (out of date) notes indicate that Burke's horses are usually pretty straight first time whereas Johnson's do improve for a run. 

So I'm going for Turn Back Time at 13/8 bet365

 

Turn Back Time just run out of it by the more experienced favourite, Chelsea Annie 

 

[Trotter]

7 hours ago, Trotter said:

7.05 Windsor

Two horses catch my eye ....... both ran in the same maiden race at Newbury on debut and having their second runs today

Hersilia finished 5th
Piffle finished 7th

Both are 2/1 at bet365

Normally I would back the one that finished in front but I have a feeling the places might be reversed so I'm going with 

Piffle 2/1 bet365

By the way that Newbury form hasn't particularly worked out so ther might be some value in one of the bigger priced ones or an EW shot

So how about EW - Petal Power 28/1 bet365 - ran at Newbury on debut, second run today, Mick Channon trained

Piffle won ..... I didn't catch the race live but just watched the replay on the Sporting Life site ...... something obviously happened here as there was a couple of non runners then 5 other horses 'withdrawn' ...... which usually means 'withdrawn at the start'

Don't know why but it only ended up with 4 runners from 11 declared when I posted earlier today

[gbettle]

From RP: "

Non-runners: Daysleeper (vet's advice), Estefan (self certificate), Gypsy Lady (upset in stalls), Hersilia (upset in stalls), Psychic Change (self certificate), Sulevia (reared over behind stalls), You Are Everything (upset in stalls)

Rule 4: Sulevia and Hersilia and Gypsy Lady and Daysleeper and You Are Everything were withdrawn. Prices at time of withdrawal 11/2 & 15/8 & 12/1 & 100/1 & 14/1. Rule 4 applies to bets struck prior to withdrawal but not to SP bets - deduction 45p in the Pound.

"

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, Trotter said:

I like to look at two year olds having their 2nd run, who showed promise on their first run and who's trainers likes to 'leave a bit to work on' with debut runners

When I backed maidens I used to only look at those who had had at least 2 runs and had combined form figures from their last 2 runs of 6 to 10 (i.e. 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 33 etc).

Over the last few years these have produced 1,337 winners from 7,661 runners with a BSP profit of £828 and an AE of 1.05.

 

[santos_]

23 hours ago, santos_ said:

Ayr 1.00 - Fille De La Lune (1pts win, 4/1 Bet365 BOG) - Unpl
Was green on debut, started slowly and got a long way back before gradually making up ground. Finished 2nd of 7 and 5 lengths off the leader but should have come on for that run and can make a bold bid here.  

Windsor 8.10 - Future (1pts win, 1pts win, 2/1 Bet Victor BOG)  - 2ND
Ran ok on debut when sent off a 10/1 shot at Chelmsford finishing 4th of 12. Finished off the race well and even though there are 14 runners here I don't think theres too much else that makes appeal to me.  

No dice on Tuesday Future just edged out of it late. 

[santos_]

Ffos Las 3.05 - Nadein (1pts win, 2/1 Bet365 BOG)  
Valley Forge is going to go off a very short favourite for this one and has shown gradual improvement and has been beaten by some useful looking types, but I think it's possibly too short here. I'm taking a chance on Nadein who was third at Haydock on second run but ran a funny race, looked green and jockey said she didn't settle. Looks a straight shootout between these two. 

[santos_]

On 7/20/2021 at 4:35 PM, santos_ said:

Ffos Las 3.05 - Nadein (1pts win, 2/1 Bet365 BOG)  - 2ND 
Valley Forge is going to go off a very short favourite for this one and has shown gradual improvement and has been beaten by some useful looking types, but I think it's possibly too short here. I'm taking a chance on Nadein who was third at Haydock on second run but ran a funny race, looked green and jockey said she didn't settle. Looks a straight shootout between these two. 

Nadein had every chance but was just edged out of it late by the short priced fav. 

[santos_]

Catterick 2.20 - Clifford (1pts win, 6/1 Bet365 BOG) 
Showed marked improvement last time out when 2nd at Brighton after never featuring on debut. Turn Back Time who was back in 3rd ran well earlier this week when 2nd in another maiden and form looks okay from that race (4th has won a maiden). He is the preference of those who have run. 

Bath 2.30 - Aradena (1pts win, 13/2 Bet365 BOG)
Favourite Point Louise has had a few goes and may be vulnerable here and I have sided with Aradena. Sent off 8/1 lto at Kempton she never really got involved. Hood on today and first run on turf could bring about some improvement.  

Sandown 6.30 - Porsche Cavalier (1pts win, 5/1 Bet365) 
Ran two races in Ireland at Tipperary and Cork to a decent level finishing 4th both times. The form of that debut run looks good with Quick Suzy (2nd) winning the G2 Queen Mary at Ascot. The 3rd, 5th have also won.  

[Trotter]

Catt 2.20

A couple of horses catch my eye here .....

Timbukone 5/1 bet365
Coligone Kate 8/1 bet365

both having their second outing and in both cases the horse that finished immediately behind them last time has won next time out

Coligone Kate probably had the better debut but Timbukone's yard is in better form now

If I have to plump for one I'll go .....

Coligone Kate 8/1 bet365

[Trotter]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

Catt 2.20

If I have to plump for one I'll go .....

Coligone Kate 8/1 bet365

Ran on from the back to finish 3rd

[santos_]

15 hours ago, santos_ said:

Catterick 2.20 - Clifford (1pts win, 6/1 Bet365 BOG) - Unpl
Showed marked improvement last time out when 2nd at Brighton after never featuring on debut. Turn Back Time who was back in 3rd ran well earlier this week when 2nd in another maiden and form looks okay from that race (4th has won a maiden). He is the preference of those who have run. 

Bath 2.30 - Aradena (1pts win, 13/2 Bet365 BOG) - 2ND
Favourite Point Louise has had a few goes and may be vulnerable here and I have sided with Aradena. Sent off 8/1 lto at Kempton she never really got involved. Hood on today and first run on turf could bring about some improvement.  

Sandown 6.30 - Porsche Cavalier (1pts win, 5/1 Bet365) - 1ST (11/2) 
Ran two races in Ireland at Tipperary and Cork to a decent level finishing 4th both times. The form of that debut run looks good with Quick Suzy (2nd) winning the G2 Queen Mary at Ascot. The 3rd, 5th have also won.  

A winner landed with Porsche Cavalier at 11/2, Aradena improved but again we found a 2nd! Clifford was poor. 

[santos_]

Sandown 1.35 - Kings Guard (1pts win, 7/2 Bet365 BOG)    
Two runs for two seconds over 6f trips, most recently when 6/5 fav at Kempton beaten 1 length. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which could tap into some further improvement. 

[Offramp]

1 hour ago, santos_ said:

Sandown 1.35 - Kings Guard (1pts win, 7/2 Bet365 BOG)    
Two runs for two seconds over 6f trips, most recently when 6/5 fav at Kempton beaten 1 length. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which could tap into some further improvement. 

Kings Guard is a non runner (and nor is Monets Sunrise). 

That makes Dukedom (Dettori) the fave @8/11 out of the 11 remaining horses. 

But MAJALH (Crowley) at 11/1 is a reasonable EW bet. 

[santos_]

16 hours ago, santos_ said:

Sandown 1.35 - Kings Guard (1pts win, 7/2 Bet365 BOG)  - NR
Two runs for two seconds over 6f trips, most recently when 6/5 fav at Kempton beaten 1 length. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which could tap into some further improvement. 

Non Runner 

[santos_]

Newcastle 2.10 - Freddy Robinson (1pts win, 5/2 Bet365)  
Third over 6f last start at Haydock and still looked green when he was asked to go and challenge. Third time up today and has progressed nicely, has been finishing off his races pretty well so stepping up to 7f could bring about further improvement.

Newmarket 3.05 - Desert Angel (1pts win, 5/1 Bet365)   
Looks a pretty open race here, siding with Desert Angel who was third at Ascot in a novice race last time, only going down by a length and leaving an ordinary debut run behind. 

Salisbury 6.35 - American Star (1pts win, 6/4 BetVictor)  
Two runs at Newbury so far wasn't beaten far on debut and then ran second last time behind Bosh in a novice event and I think the form of that race looks decent enough. 
*All bets BOG
 

[santos_]

17 hours ago, santos_ said:

Newcastle 2.10 - Freddy Robinson (1pts win, 5/2 Bet365)  - Unpl 
Third over 6f last start at Haydock and still looked green when he was asked to go and challenge. Third time up today and has progressed nicely, has been finishing off his races pretty well so stepping up to 7f could bring about further improvement.

Newmarket 3.05 - Desert Angel (1pts win, 7/1 Bet365) - 3rd
Looks a pretty open race here, siding with Desert Angel who was third at Ascot in a novice race last time, only going down by a length and leaving an ordinary debut run behind. 

Salisbury 6.35 - American Star (1pts win, 6/4 BetVictor)  - 1ST
Two runs at Newbury so far wasn't beaten far on debut and then ran second last time behind Bosh in a novice event and I think the form of that race looks decent enough. 
*All bets BOG
 

American Star the onnly winner on te day at 6/4 advised, Desert Angel ran a place after going off SP 7/1. 

[santos_]

Slowish start with 2 winners and a handful of placings from the week. 

RACES = 9
1ST = 2
2ND = 3
3RD = 1
UNPL = 3
WIN% = 22%
PLACE% = 66%
P/L = -0.1PTS
ROI = -1.1

[santos_]

Leicester 5.35 - Magnolia State (1pts win, 6/4 Bet365)
Second on debut at Haydock when not having a staright forward run throughout. Winner of that race has gone on to win again. With a clearer run this time she wouldn't need to improve much to land this.  

Leicester 7.35 - Waleyfa (1pts win, 2/1 Bet365)
Two runs for two thirds and not done too much wrong so far. I think her last run can also be marked up slightly after making up ground well. 
*All bets BOG

[santos_]

22 hours ago, santos_ said:

Leicester 5.35 - Magnolia State (1pts win, 6/4 Bet365) - Unpl
Second on debut at Haydock when not having a staright forward run throughout. Winner of that race has gone on to win again. With a clearer run this time she wouldn't need to improve much to land this.  

Leicester 7.35 - Waleyfa (1pts win, 9/4 Bet365) - 2nd
Two runs for two thirds and not done too much wrong so far. I think her last run can also be marked up slightly after making up ground well. 
*All bets BOG

Hit another second yesterday but no winner. 

[santos_]

Nottingham 1.25 - Rufaafa (1pts win, 11/4 BetVictor)
Newcomer from the Charlie Hills yard with smart looking pedigree, Could be bang there if ready to go first up. 

Nottingham 2.35 - General Sago (1pts win, 3/1 Bet365)
Had plenty of goes but does bring a solid level of experience/form here. Has gone close a few times and I'm not sure there is that much depth to this race. 

Goodwood 4.45 - Helene (1pts win, 13/2 Bet365) 
Really wide open race with 18 runners so plenty of chances. I'll side with Helene who has placed 3rd in both starts to date, step up to 7f may suit.
*All bets BOG