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Systemight

Golden Rules..

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As the majority of us are awaiting the "real" racing to start again,i wondered if Punters Lounge members would like to join me in putting up one "Golden Rule",that they would advise to newcomers of the sport to help them to make their betting pay?.

 

Out of everything I’ve learnt about betting over the last 8 years, there is one thing that stops people winning more than anything else.It’s nothing to do with bankroll management, which bookmakers you use or any of the usual things.

For some reason people think they have not yet discovered the best system or strategy. If they look hard enough, a better system for making money is out there.We naturally believe that somebody knows a “better way”.

People that act on this belief are constantly searching for a new and better strategy. They get sucked in to every fad going. Buying method after method that promises them something new,it rarely works.
This is what the best professional bettors do. They don’t get caught with the latest magic bullet.

So my "Golden Rule" is...

Find a method that you are comfortable with.Promise yourself that you are going to stick by this method through thick and through thin,Revise it three months down the line and see where/if you can make any improvements.Only abandon it once all avenues have been exhausted and you feel it is not profitable to continue. 
 

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Avoid short priced favourites

Obviously they'll win quite often but they'll never win often enough to make a profit

I think favourites are nearly always poor value because a lot of punters are naturally drawn to 'the favourite' regardless of it's chance of winning ……. it's human nature !

so the favourite not only carries money which reflects it's chance but also extra money merely by being 'favourite' and that extra money doesn't reflect the horses chance

 

actually I'm brim full of golden rules …. some of which are probably contradictory !

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One little aphorism or saying that I read years ago stuck with me

Don't try to find the winner of a race, look to see if there's a winner 'in' the race

At first sight it's a bit 'Confucius he say...…..' but what it means is to decide what kind of horse should win a race like the one you're looking at and then check the runners to see if any of them fit the bill

If none of them fit the bill then don't bet ……… 

An example might be in a sprint handicap you might think a horse dropping in class, down a few pounds in the weights and returning to it's ideal conditions of track, trip, going from running in less than ideal conditions last time out……. check the entries to see if there's a horse like that in the field. if there isn't one move on to the next race !

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I could easily give a dozen here, but here's a quick 3 fer.

1. Beware those extra bets: If you're like me, you make your pix ~ 9am when the mind is fairly sharp. Think twice about being influenced by the TV when coverage starts at 1.30 (3 drinks later).

2. Beware "money back specials", eg " Money back all losers if the fav wins". It often means the bookie feels he can get the fav beat . There was a classic a couple of weeks back when the fav was ~ 6/4, and there was co 2,3,4 favs at ~7/2 each. Without checking a Dutching calculator, That's probably shorter than 6/4. The fav failed. That said, in a different race (same offer) Josie's Orders (the fav) won for me on Sunday.

3. Think twice about each-way and place only. If you do it because you feel it's not good enough to win, it may well finish down the field. Only do if you feel nailed-on for the place. If you've backed the fav to win, to also do each-way on your second choice is backing against yourself, so do place only - or consider the forecast.

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1. Take advantage of "money back specials" but only when the odds are in your favour.

2. When using free bets do not back favourites.

3. Level stakes only.

4. Very low stakes until you are showing a profit and then gradually increase stakes.

5. Limit stakes to a maximum each day.

 

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We have seven excellent "Golden Rules" to date from the Punters Lounge fraternity,would be nice if we could to get to 10 or 12...

 

1. Don't keep changing your approach when on a losing run - Systemight

2. Always take the best price available - Torque

3. Avoid short price favorites - Trotter

4. Don't chase your losses - Ralphie7

5. Make your selections when your mind is sharp(i.e before alcohol) - Snoopdog

6. Take advantage of "money back specials" but only when the odds are in your favour - MClarke

7. Keep records of every bet - most punters don't! - Pirate53

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Get to know the tracks

Years ago I started keeping notes on all the tracks …… whether they were right-hand, left-hand or straight, sharp or galloping, flat or undulating, uphill finish or 'easy' finish, length of home straight on turning tracks, stiff or yielding fences for chases, long run or short run from last obstacle

Unfortunately I no longer have those notes …… but it's all now in my head. Well until I start losing my marbles which probably isn't that far off now.

With younger horses who haven't raced much it doesn't add much value because they haven't run enough on different tracks for any pattern to emerge. But once you get to seasoned handicappers you can often see a pattern as to which 'type' of track they perform best at

old saying - Horses for Courses

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Pay attention to "class"....one of the things that seems to get ignored time and time again ....my friends open the paper ...see form figures 0 1 1 and say yep that's the one ....class of race is a huge factor ....id say 40 -50% of a horses chance in any race ...I've always likened it to an athletic sprinter winning races all over London then suddenly hes thrown into 5 nations against best sprinters from France..Germany...Spain etc .....doesnt mean he cant win but it means the form pool is much deeper and more likely that someone is gonna be better than him now and I've lost count how many times I've seen a horse that can perform form figures 2 1 1 at class 5 then suddenly raise him to class 4 and hes 0 6 4 .....I've lost count so it's a huge factor that's widely ignored and in many cases horses are jumping up 2 or 3 classes and have no chance before they've even jumped out the gates .....I've always considered it the secret formline because a lot of people just overlook it 

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On 15/02/2019 at 7:54 AM, richard-westwood said:

Pay attention to "class"

I'd go a bit further and say (example) class 4 chase form at Cheltenham, Aintree, Newbury, etc counts for a lot more than class 4 chase form at Plumpton, Fontwell, Fakenham, etc. Mostly because the lesser  courses can't attract the best horses.

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On 2/11/2019 at 8:30 PM, Systemight said:
As the majority of us are awaiting the "real" racing to start again,i wondered if Punters Lounge members would like to join me in putting up one "Golden Rule",that they would advise to newcomers of the sport to help them to make their betting pay?.

 

Out of everything I’ve learnt about betting over the last 8 years, there is one thing that stops people winning more than anything else.It’s nothing to do with bankroll management, which bookmakers you use or any of the usual things.

For some reason people think they have not yet discovered the best system or strategy. If they look hard enough, a better system for making money is out there.We naturally believe that somebody knows a “better way”.

People that act on this belief are constantly searching for a new and better strategy. They get sucked in to every fad going. Buying method after method that promises them something new,it rarely works.
This is what the best professional bettors do. They don’t get caught with the latest magic bullet.

So my "Golden Rule" is...

Find a method that you are comfortable with.Promise yourself that you are going to stick by this method through thick and through thin,Revise it three months down the line and see where/if you can make any improvements.Only abandon it once all avenues have been exhausted and you feel it is not profitable to continue. 
 

I don't entirely agree with this although you do need to weather the storm when a system isn't going according to plan.

The part I especially don't adhere to is relying on someone else to find a better strategy for you. By all means pick up hints and tips for inspirational purposes from others but it's imperative to create your own systems because otherwise you'll never going to learn much about gambling on horses.

Also, always look to improve and create a better system even when you're still betting off another. Keep looking for trends from the data you've collated. What makes a horse win. What makes a horse lose.

At the end of the day, a darts player will become a better darts player by practising more. A gambler of horses will become a better gambler of horses by studying more.

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13 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said:

One golden rule that everyone has missed. Probably the most important too.

Always use a staking plan. ;)

I've been betting for over 30 years and have not found anything better than level stakes.

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13 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said:

I don't entirely agree with this although you do need to weather the storm when a system isn't going according to plan.

The part I especially don't adhere to is relying on someone else to find a better strategy for you. By all means pick up hints and tips for inspirational purposes from others but it's imperative to create your own systems because otherwise you'll never going to learn much about gambling on horses.

Also, always look to improve and create a better system even when you're still betting off another. Keep looking for trends from the data you've collated. What makes a horse win. What makes a horse lose.

At the end of the day, a darts player will become a better darts player by practising more. A gambler of horses will become a better gambler of horses by studying more.

Hi E.C,

I am not sure if you are suggesting that i was advocating "relying on someone else",if you were then you may need to re-read as this is most certainly not the case.

 For clarity,i was suggesting that people seem to think that there is always a better way, and when things start to get tough look to get involved in the next  popular fad going. Professional bettors never do this,thus avoid subscribing to the next magic bullet. 

As you rightly say,the best way forward is to find your own approach,one that you are comfortable with.Promise yourself you will stick to it,analyse the data,look to make improvements and hopefully watch it evolve.Only when you have explored all avenues to improve and you are convinced it is not going to be profitable should you look to move on.Personally i have five systems and will stick by them all for twelve months,at the end of which i will re-evaluate.

As an aside may i recommend bettin.gs as a very easy way of recording your bets.Yes there is a small monthly cost(and no i don't get anything for giving them a plug),but the information it provides (for me at least) is invaluable.Most importantly however your data is recorded in minutes and you can get on with your day...

 

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18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I've been betting for over 30 years and have not found anything better than level stakes.

Totally agree.If you method isn't making a profit at level stakes,no staking plan(over time) will be of much use..

 

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8 hours ago, Systemight said:

Hi E.C,

I am not sure if you are suggesting that i was advocating "relying on someone else",if you were then you may need to re-read as this is most certainly not the case.

 For clarity,i was suggesting that people seem to think that there is always a better way, and when things start to get tough look to get involved in the next  popular fad going. Professional bettors never do this,thus avoid subscribing to the next magic bullet. 

As you rightly say,the best way forward is to find your own approach,one that you are comfortable with.Promise yourself you will stick to it,analyse the data,look to make improvements and hopefully watch it evolve.Only when you have explored all avenues to improve and you are convinced it is not going to be profitable should you look to move on.Personally i have five systems and will stick by them all for twelve months,at the end of which i will re-evaluate.

As an aside may i recommend bettin.gs as a very easy way of recording your bets.Yes there is a small monthly cost(and no i don't get anything for giving them a plug),but the information it provides (for me at least) is invaluable.Most importantly however your data is recorded in minutes and you can get on with your day...

 

Bettin gs! Hmm...never come across this site before. Don't get me wrong it seems like a useful tool although I wouldn't pay for the service judging by the one minute video. Is that all it does? Records transactions?

If this is the case they shouldn't be charging people. It should be free and they should make their money from advertising etc.

They don't mention how much it costs and when sites fail to do this I become sceptical.

Out of interest, what is the price?

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9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I've been betting for over 30 years and have not found anything better than level stakes.

Going from what you wrote in the other thread, you're not solely betting at level stakes because you're increasing your stake at regular intervals. If my maths serves me correctly on average you up the stakes with your system every three weeks. I would call it more of a combination but nonetheless that kind of strategy is one I can certainly concur with.

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9 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said:

Bettin gs! Hmm...never come across this site before. Don't get me wrong it seems like a useful tool although I wouldn't pay for the service judging by the one minute video. Is that all it does? Records transactions?

If this is the case they shouldn't be charging people. It should be free and they should make their money from advertising etc.

They don't mention how much it costs and when sites fail to do this I become sceptical.

Out of interest, what is the price?

Yes its pretty much all records and transactions,but as its set out in predictive text it doesn't take long at all to input your daily records.

I found this invaluable,as the problem for me with keeping records was always the inputting of data following a bad day- particularly after a day in which i spent a good part of it travelling to some obscure racecourse somewhere.Knowing it takes little over five minutes to input everything  makes it all seem like less work and easy to keep on top of.

Nowadays i have stored over some 6,000 bets and its easy to see where you are going right and wrong.

For example I used to love sports betting,but was a lot worse at it than i realized,all weather racing too,which meant no more Saturday nights at Wolverhampton for me..lol 

The cost is about £9 a month,it may seem a lot but its really just the price of a Racing Post every Saturday... and its saved me from losing lots,lots more.No doubt if you look hard enough there will be better or cheaper options out there,but Bettin.gs is quick and easy and works for me...and you can sign up for free with no obligation.

Edited by Systemight

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I have been betting for 30 years and i have tried many systems.

i have one now that i have developed and it gives me a win strike rate of 66%-75% per month . With a 100% +ROI each month.

I can only use on the exchanges due to having restrictions placed on regular bookmakers. Betting exchanges do not care if you keep winning, so which bookmakers you use can be an issue with a winning system. Most people give up on systems if they have a run of losers and think the system has failed. 

I use 5% of my bankroll on each bet,as the bankroll increases so does the unit stake. ( month one-£500 bankroll £25 bet unit. Month two- £1000 bankroll £50 bet unit etc)

a winning system is about finding an edge in your favour , it may only be a small edge but as long as its in your favour then you will win in the long run. This week i had 21 bets with my system and had 15 winners 6 losers.

But i could of had 6 losers in a row, many would give up , but because i know by sticking to the system and i have a statisical edge, that i will win back my losses and then move into profit.

the main rules are - do you have an edge over the odds on offer ? Is there value in your bets? If not then dont bet.

its like the green zero in roulette that gives the house a small edge , they will always win in the long run.

find a system which gives you the edge and you cant lose.

It took me a long time to find one but believe me it can be done. It wont make you a millionaire but it feels good.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Systemight said:

Yes its pretty much all records and transactions,but as its set out in predictive text it doesn't take long at all to input your daily records.

I found this invaluable,as the problem for me with keeping records was always the inputting of data following a bad day- particularly after a day in which i spent a good part of it travelling to some obscure racecourse somewhere.Knowing it takes little over five minutes to input everything  makes it all seem like less work and easy to keep on top of.

Nowadays i have stored over some 6,000 bets and its easy to see where you are going right and wrong.

For example I used to love sports betting,but was a lot worse at it than i realized,all weather racing too,which meant no more Saturday nights at Wolverhampton for me..lol 

The cost is about £9 a month,it may seem a lot but its really just the price of a Racing Post every Saturday... and its saved me from losing lots,lots more.No doubt if you look hard enough there will be better or cheaper options out there,but Bettin.gs is quick and easy and works for me...and you can sign up for free with no obligation.

In comparison I spend about the same amount of money for the service I use and that includes the downloading of spreadsheets with all the days runners and an whole array of info to boot.

As for recording one's bets, I find a spreadsheet to be perfectly feasible and it only takes a few minutes to input the data.

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4 hours ago, Fazman said:

I have been betting for 30 years and i have tried many systems.

i have one now that i have developed and it gives me a win strike rate of 66%-75% per month . With a 100% +ROI each month.

I can only use on the exchanges due to having restrictions placed on regular bookmakers. Betting exchanges do not care if you keep winning, so which bookmakers you use can be an issue with a winning system. Most people give up on systems if they have a run of losers and think the system has failed. 

I use 5% of my bankroll on each bet,as the bankroll increases so does the unit stake. ( month one-£500 bankroll £25 bet unit. Month two- £1000 bankroll £50 bet unit etc)

a winning system is about finding an edge in your favour , it may only be a small edge but as long as its in your favour then you will win in the long run. This week i had 21 bets with my system and had 15 winners 6 losers.

But i could of had 6 losers in a row, many would give up , but because i know by sticking to the system and i have a statisical edge, that i will win back my losses and then move into profit.

the main rules are - do you have an edge over the odds on offer ? Is there value in your bets? If not then dont bet.

its like the green zero in roulette that gives the house a small edge , they will always win in the long run.

find a system which gives you the edge and you cant lose.

It took me a long time to find one but believe me it can be done. It wont make you a millionaire but it feels good.

 

 

How many bets is that over and what are your average odds roughly?

I've only created one system in fourteen years that has surpassed 100% ROI over a month before (215 bets approx.). I began "paper trading" with this particular system six weeks ago in the second week of March. For the first fortnight the average losing run was 1.23. This week has been awful though and has included an 18 long losing streak and the past four days have all churned out negative profit. Because it's still early days and the ROI% exceeded 100 I kinda expected a downturn in results somewhat but not to the extent of 18 losers on the trot. That got me really pissed.

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12 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said:

In comparison I spend about the same amount of money for the service I use and that includes the downloading of spreadsheets with all the days runners and an whole array of info to boot.

As for recording one's bets, I find a spreadsheet to be perfectly feasible and it only takes a few minutes to input the data.

clearly our needs differ as downloading the days runners etc,etc would be of no use to me whatsoever...

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