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BillyHills

Royal Ascot 2019 - Tips and Trends

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Less than a week to go before the Royal meeting, if you have any views on anything Royal Ascot and what you are going to back then stick them in here.

I will be doing some trends on the big handicaps and adding some ratings along the way.

Tues: Ascot Stakes
Wed: Hunt Cup
Thurs: Britannia Stakes
Fri: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
Sat: Wokingham Stakes

:ok

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Tuesday:
17:00: Ascot Stakes (Handicap) 2m 4f

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-06-12 at 09.58.17.png

Trends

9/10 Rated 95 or less
8/10 Aged 7 or below
8/10 Ran within 45 days
7/10 Drawn 11 or less
7/10 Carried 9st 7lbs or less
17/22 Placed in first 4 last time (10 won)
16/22 Ran no more than twice this season
15/22 Had won over 2m+ previously
20/22 Had Ran over 2m+ previously

 

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15 hours ago, Alastair said:

Billy,

Just to point out that up to 2014 this race was a 0-95 handicap so the first of those trends above is not really surprising

Good point Alastair, Reminds me of a trend I once saw where it stated you had to be drawn in single figures. When I looked 6/10 races had 9 runners or less:lol

Pity as when i saw you had replied i thought you were giving us a tip, well I suppose you did;)

I do my best to keep things going:lol

 

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Wednesday
5:00: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-06-13 at 10.26.39.png

Trends

9/10 Aged 6 or under (7 4yo's)
9/10 Ran within 60 days
8/10 Drawn 11 or higher
7/10 rated 99 or more
7/10 Carried 9st or more
15/22 Placed in first 4 last time
18/22 Ran no more than 3 times this season
18/22 Won over a mile or more previously
22/22 Had ran over a mile at least previously


 

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Thursday

5:00: BRITANNIA STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) runners 1m 

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 10.18.29.png

Trends

9/10 rated 96 or less
9/10 Carried 9st 1lb or less
9/10 ran within 50 days
7/10 Drawn double figure stall
17/22 first 3 last time out
20/22 Ran no more than 3 times this season (12 had ran twice)
19/22 Had won over 7f+ previously
17/22 Had ran over a mile previously



 

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Friday 

05:35 PM The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) 3+ £90,000 One mile, four furlongs

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 13.28.14.png

Trends

10/10 4 or 5yo
9/10 Carried 9st or more
10/10 Drawn double figures
9/10 Ran within 50 days
18/22 Placed in first 3 last time (10 won)
11/22 Ran more than twice this season
16/22 Won at the trip before
18/22 Ran over the trip before

 

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Saturday

05:00 PM The Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 3+ £175,000 Six furlongs

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 13.28.21.png

 

Trends
9/10 Aged 6 or under
8/10 Rated 98 or more
8/10 Ran this season
8/10 Drawn double figure stall
8/10 Carried 9st 3lbs or less
20/22 Placed in first 4 last time
18/22 Won at the trip
21/22 Won at 6f or more (1/22 was a maiden)
19/22 had ran over 7f or more

 

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5.00 Tues: Ascot Stakes

Trends Selections
8/10 Aged 7 or below
We lose Snow Falcon, Arctic Fire, Kerosin, Mixboy, Fun Mac


8/10 Ran within 45 days
We lose Mengli Khan, Jukebox Jive, Ulster, Buildmeupbuttercup


7/10 Drawn 11 or less
WE lose Time To Study, The Grand Visr, Not Never, Percy Street, Mancini


17/22 Placed in first 4 last time (10 won)
We Lose Gunnery, Batts Rock, The Cashel Man


16/22 Ran no more than twice this season
We lose Cosmelli

 

Selections:
1pt Coeur De Lion 8/1 bet365
1pt EW  Yabass 33/1 Hills

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Wednesday
5:00: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m

9/10 Aged 6 or under (7 4yo's)
We lose Mitcham Swagger, So Beloved, Rasing Sand, Circus Couture, Breden, 


9/10 Ran within 60 days
We lose Key Victory, Afaak, Chilean, Cion Coulis, Vale Of Kent


8/10 Drawn 11 or higher
We lose Comin Through, Settle For Bay, New Graduate, Roc Angel, Kynren, Beringer


7/10 Carried 9st or more
We lose Styelhunter, War Glory, 


15/22 Placed in first 4 last time
We lose Mordin, Robin Of Navan, Glendevon, Zwayyan, 


18/22 Ran no more than 3 times this season
We lose Cardsharp, Red Starlight

Not Won at A Mile :Chief Ironside

5 left:  Kings Field, Seniority, Whats The Story, Petrus, Zhui Feng,

Selections

1pt EW Seniority 16/1Corals 6 places
1pt EW Petrus 25/1 PP 5 places
1pt EW Whats The Story 22/1 BetVic 5 places

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Royal hunt cup ive narrowed to 3 horses ...

Affaak 

Raising sand 

Circus couture 

Could go ew 5 or 6 places but ill take the enhanced ew prices for 3 places 

Afaak 5pts ew 33/1 bet365 3 places 

Raising sand 5pts ew 11/1 3 places

Circus couture 5pts ew 45/1 3 places 

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not sure what happened here ....... I though I posted this a few hours ago but apparently not !

Royal Hunt Cup

filtered the runners by age, having won over a mile, having run within 3 months, no negative comment in the racing post, trainer having a decent RTF %, and lastly 'hunch'

ended up with a short list of half a dozen but I'm nailing my colours to Mordin who has a 2nd in a big field handicap and has won on Soft

Mordin - EW at 20/1

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Thursday

5:00: BRITANNIA STAKES 

9/10 rated 96 or less or 9/10 Carried 9st 1lb or less

We lose Top 15 Horses

7/10 Drawn double figure stall
We lose Velorum, 


17/22 first 3 last time out
We lose Dark Jedi, Aweedram, Victory Command, Athmad, Mordred, Barristan The Bold, Allmankind


20/22 Ran no more than 3 times this season (12 had ran twice)
We lose Sameem, Finoah


19/22 Had won over 7f+ previously
We lose King Ademar,

7/22 Had ran over a mile previously
We lose Boimetric

14/22 Ran within 30 days
We lose Tulfarris,  Migration

Selections (Cant split 3)

EW Hero Hero 14/1 Coral (6 places)
EW Awe 16/1 Coral (6 places)
EW Davydenko 16/1 PP (6 places)

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23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Royal hunt cup ive narrowed to 3 horses ...

Affaak 

Raising sand 

Circus couture 

Could go ew 5 or 6 places but ill take the enhanced ew prices for 3 places 

Afaak 5pts ew 33/1 bet365 3 places 

Raising sand 5pts ew 11/1 3 places

Circus couture 5pts ew 45/1 3 places 

Well that was pretty special ...1st and 3rd ...about 230 pts returned 

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Friday

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

Trends

10/10 4 or 5yo
We lose Byron Flyer, Spark Plug, Top Tug

10/10 Drawn double figures
We lose Pivoine, Secret Advisor, Arthurian Flame, Collide, Downdraft, Corgi, Johnny Drama

9/10 Ran within 50 days
We lose Ben Vrackie, Kasperenko

18/22 Placed in first 3 last time (10 won)
We lose Aquarium, Lethal Steps, Sevann Star, All reserves

18/22 Ran over the trip before
We lose Lucius Tiberius

Selections:
1pt Baghdad 7/1 bet365
1pt Fujaira Perince bet365

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37 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Friday

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

Trends

10/10 4 or 5yo
We lose Byron Flyer, Spark Plug, Top Tug

10/10 Drawn double figures
We lose Pivoine, Secret Advisor, Arthurian Flame, Collide, Downdraft, Corgi, Johnny Drama

9/10 Ran within 50 days
We lose Ben Vrackie, Kasperenko

18/22 Placed in first 3 last time (10 won)
We lose Aquarium, Lethal Steps, Sevann Star, All reserves

18/22 Ran over the trip before
We lose Lucius Tiberius

Selections:
1pt Baghdad 7/1 bet365
1pt Fujaira Perince bet365

I have those 2 top of my ratings too ....i really like the look of them at 7/1 both too ....gotta play that ..

Fujeira prince 10pts win 7/1 wh

Baghdad 10pts win 7/1 sky 

Good luck billy

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Friday

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

I really fancy a big outsider in this seems to have been overlooked SEVENNA STAR 50/1 E/W  1/5odds 5 Places Ran a lot better than last run suggests at a trip too far and ground to firm this former John Gosden inmate can upset the apple cart here  and run a mighty race won a really good 3yo race at Sandown last April had a couple of really decent horse behind that day over 1m2f on GS ground which looks likely today is in stall  15 which ticks another box for me  IMO this horse is a  must e/w back! at a ridiculous 50/1 price tag!!!

The only other horse i would like to mention is TOP TUG who  probably wont win but can get in the places with 5 up for grabs.

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Saturday 5:00 The Wokingham Stakes 

Trends
9/10 Aged 6 or under
We lose Spring Loaded, Intisaab, Merhoob, Danzeno, Cenotaph, Watchable, Sir Maximillian


8/10 Rated 98 or more
We lose Fighting Irish


8/10 Ran this season
We lose Bacchus


8/10 Drawn double figure stall
WE lose Vanburgh, Gunmetal,  Foxtrot Lady, Corinthia Knight, Gossamer Wings


8/10 Carried 9st 3lbs or less
We lose Top 16 runners


20/22 Placed in first 4 last time
We lose Perfection,  Raucous


19/22 had ran over 7f or more
We lose Tis Marvellous, Summerghand, Recon Mission

Selection

1pt EW Soldiers Minute 16/1 Ladbrokes (first 6)

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Duke of Edinburgh

Following my usual pattern for these big field top handicaps I've filtered the horses by age, Distance win, draw, hunch ......... and Basically come up with Baghdad but he's very short and and I'll bypass him in favour of a couple of others

Ben Vrackle at 7/1 bet365

Kasperenko 33/1 EW bet365

 

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Wokingham ......i narrowed to 4 

Cape byron 

Tis marvellous 

Summerghand 

Soldiers minute

I always want to be drawn towards a rail either side and the nearest 2 are cape byron and soldiers call so at 9 and 16 they will do nicely

Cape byron 10pts win  9/1 bet365

Soldiers minute  10pts win 16/1 b365 

Edited by richard-westwood

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