Mindfulness

No bets for me so far but I will talk about a couple of games:
 
Lazio V Udinese
Initially I was looking at Udinese on + AH line here but this is perhaps the game where Massimo Oddo's good run will come to an end. A lot will depend on whether Ciro Immoblile is fit enough to start for Lazio, if not they may have to play a false 9 in the form of Anderson or Milinkovic-Savic. Metrics give Lazio around a goal advantage heading into this game while ELO gives them over a 2 goal advantage for last 2 games!
Udinese are also experiencing difficulty in the wing-back positions with Adnan and Widmer both doubts while CM Behrami is injured. I feel Behrami is really important for this type of match as Lazio may find it easier to overwhelm Udinese's midfield without him.
A difficult game to call with so many question marks over who's going to play. My advice would be to wait for the starting lineups and look at the prices then.
 
Sampdoria V Roma
Metrics favour Sampdoria here but that is not the whole story. Much depends on which players are available for the respective managers. Will Dzeko and Perotti start for Roma? Will Quagliarella start for Samp? A lot hinges on these guys.
Despite being in a difficult moment, Roma do have certain characteristics which can trouble Samp here. Sampdoria play an aggressive attacking style which is highly entertaining but can sometimes look naive against a composed opponent who knows how to counter effectively. If Roma were at full strength and in-form then they could confound the metrics and cause the home side problems but this is far from certain as things stand.
As with the Lazio V Udinese match my advice here is to wait for the starting lineups and then see what the Sampdoria price is doing. Home team on +0.75 AH line would be my preference but Quagliarella must start and Roma need to be without Dzeko or Perotti, preferably both.
 

West Ham Utd V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.25 AH @ 1.83 Betvictor
Haven't run the numbers for this one yet but don't have time as markets will move quick now this has made the news:
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11685/11219325/west-ham-trio-andy-carroll-manuel-lanzini-and-marko-arnautovic-set-for-spells-on-sidelines
Palace were on my shortlist for this gameweek anyway, I'm getting my money in early before value evaporates. Haven't done full analysis yet but ELO ratings suggest level match + Palace get to rest on FA Cup 4th round weekend where as West Ham face quick turnover of matches.

No bets for me so far but I will talk about a couple of games:
 
Lazio V Udinese
Initially I was looking at Udinese on + AH line here but this is perhaps the game where Massimo Oddo's good run will come to an end. A lot will depend on whether Ciro Immoblile is fit enough to start for Lazio, if not they may have to play a false 9 in the form of Anderson or Milinkovic-Savic. Metrics give Lazio around a goal advantage heading into this game while ELO gives them over a 2 goal advantage for last 2 games!
Udinese are also experiencing difficulty in the wing-back positions with Adnan and Widmer both doubts while CM Behrami is injured. I feel Behrami is really important for this type of match as Lazio may find it easier to overwhelm Udinese's midfield without him.
A difficult game to call with so many question marks over who's going to play. My advice would be to wait for the starting lineups and look at the prices then.
 
Sampdoria V Roma
Metrics favour Sampdoria here but that is not the whole story. Much depends on which players are available for the respective managers. Will Dzeko and Perotti start for Roma? Will Quagliarella start for Samp? A lot hinges on these guys.
Despite being in a difficult moment, Roma do have certain characteristics which can trouble Samp here. Sampdoria play an aggressive attacking style which is highly entertaining but can sometimes look naive against a composed opponent who knows how to counter effectively. If Roma were at full strength and in-form then they could confound the metrics and cause the home side problems but this is far from certain as things stand.
As with the Lazio V Udinese match my advice here is to wait for the starting lineups and then see what the Sampdoria price is doing. Home team on +0.75 AH line would be my preference but Quagliarella must start and Roma need to be without Dzeko or Perotti, preferably both.
 

It's a bumper week of Serie A action with a couple of midweek matches adding to the usual weekend carnage. I use the term "carnage" is the loosest of terms because, let's face it, Italian football is rarely the cauldron of excitement and drama on the pitch! Anyway, some big bets to be placed here. I'll tag you all in this thread twice to remind you of the games coming up in midweek and at the weekend. For the time being, let's hear your tips for the games coming up in a couple of days time. 
@Pep004, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @the bastardian, @thegeneral55, @Mindfulness, @stephen m, @teddybear3011, @jamiedavies02, and @scommetix, what are you guys looking at?

@StevieDay1983
Any chance of getting the next Serie A thread started soon? My shortlist is looking more promising for that round. Be good to see the ELO ratings for that one + I think there is a game this Wednesday between Lazio and Udinese.

I know that Arsenal V Palace is on the next card but I have just taken Palace +1.5 AH @ 1.75 for that game in light of the Sanchez situation.
It's true that we don't know what's going to happen yet but if Sanchez does not play for Arsenal V Palace then it's a big boost for the away side who are already in good form. We played Arsenal at Selhurst a couple of weeks back and Sanchez was the major difference between the two sides, game could easily have finished as a draw had he not scored those 2 incredible goals.
Obviously I haven't done any analysis for the match yet and no ELO available at this time but if Sanchez does leave Arsenal this week then the Palace price could collapse and opportunity maybe lost. If worst comes to the worst and Sanchez stays, analysis and team news goes south then I don't mind cashing out or laying off with a small loss as I think we are being presented with a worthwhile opportunity here.

Right I’m typing this on my phone so it will be very brief. At big odds I think Hendon and heybridge are worth backing in the Fa Trophy. Havant are over priced especially given their away form in the big game in the NLS. Hampton look a great bet at odds against as more than happy to continue to oppose Eastbourne. Whitehawk worth another go at long odds and the very much in form leatherhead are worth backing in the bostik premier.
Hendon 1pt
Heybridge 1pt
Havant 1pt
Hampton 3pts
Whitehawk 1pt
Leatherhead 3pts 

Genoa V Sassuolo
Sassuolo +0.50 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
In a game of fine margins the markets have Sassuolo priced up a bit bigger than what I can make them here. Both these teams have improved since changing their respective managers and both are on a similar level right now.
When looking at the metrics I feel Genoa 0 AH line should be around 1.75 while Sassuolo 0 AH line should be around 2.25. Instead we're getting around 1.5 and 2.5 respectively so there is some slight value on away side at current prices in my view.
If we look at the ELO ratings we can also see that Sassuolo have more than a half goal advantage heading into this game which is encouraging.
Beyond the metrics we can see that Genoa are tough to beat but they struggle to win home games. Sassuolo are not too shabby on the road and if you try to force the game against them they can hurt you with forwards who are useful on the counter-attack. Genoa will also miss CB Izzo and CM Veloso for this game while FW Taarabt is not in the best condition - all are first teamers.
To summarise, this should be a closely contested game but markets are slightly off in my view. There is just about enough value for me to get involved here so I will back the away side on +0.50 AH line.

A small loss to end 2017, but it has been a hugely successful calendar year and hopefully 2018 will be just as good. The weather looks better so hopefully that shouldn't be an issue and I have 8 bets in total.
AFC Fylde v Tranmere
Tranmere are really finding their feet now and are looming large as they continue their rise up the table. They are the best side in the division for me and finally everything is clicking and they are looking really impressive. They win their game in hand and they would be in 2nd place behind Macclesfield. They have now won 5 on the bounce in the league and have just one defeat in their last 10 league matches. Now their away form has been a bit in and out, but they only played one away league game in December and that was the impressive 3-1 win at Sutton. Prior to that they drew 2-2 against Macclesfield when the home side equalised in injury time. Having put 4 past Fylde on Boxing Day you would be hopeful they can get another 3 points. The home side got a good win on Saturday coming from a goal down against Maidenhead and they have lost just two home league games all season. Having said that prior to playing Ebbsfleet on December 23rd their last home league game was November 18th. Micky Mellon said Fylde made it hard for them on Boxing Day despite the scoreline and I am sure they will again, but I think they are value to keep the winning run going. Marathon have them at 6/4 to do so.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Leyton Orient
Sounds like Dagenham deserved a point against Ebbsfleet even if the equaliser did come late on. Even so I think what I wrote in that preview still holds true and I just can't get over the price on Orient here. They were really unfortunate to lose 1-0 to Bromley on Saturday having gone down to 10 men early on as they had numerous chances to at least get an equaliser. Justin Edinburgh has really improved them and as Boxing Day proved Orient look a play-off challenging side rather than a team near the relegation zone. After beating them 2-0 a week ago it makes little sense to have them at 7/2 (Marathon) to win this game. Granted playing over 80 minutes with over 10 men isn't ideal, but for me that is more than factored into the price.
Solihull Moors v Maidenhead
The home side have definitely improved since Mark Yates took over and it was a close game between these two sides which Maidenhead won 1-0. Solihull then got a cracking victory at Barrow on Saturday and on the back of that I think they can pick up another 3 points here. As mentioned above Maidenhead blew a 1-0 lead on Saturday to Fylde and as their record suggests they are a very in and out side. With home advantage I am surprised Moors are 41/20 to win this because I would probably just about make them favs.
Bromley v Ebbsfleet
This is the live game on Monday and it does seem a bit of an odd pick although I am hoping the away side edge it. Granted their away form hasn't been the best and they have picked up just 2 points in their last 5 away games, but again as mentioned above that is a bit misleading because the Fylde game was their only away league game last month and I think they are playing better than they were in November. Bromley still don't really convince me and they look a mid-table side. As mentioned above they had luck on their side against Orient in that win and I can't make them such strong favs to win this. Ebbsfleet look decent value at Bet 365s 21/10.
Alfreton v Stockport
Now Stockport have only won two away league games all season, but they have only lost one of their last five on their travels which was a 3-2 defeat a Brackley. Travelling to Alfreton is going to be a very different story as they have lost their last 5 home league games and conceded 13 times in those games. That Brackley defeat is Stockport's only loss in their last 7 league games whereas Alfreton have lost 7 of their last 8 league games which tells its own story. At 143/100  with Marathon Stockport look a nice price.
Bognor Regis v Havant & Waterlooville
These two teams drew 0-0 on Boxing Day, but as regular followers will know Havant's away form is way better than their home form. It reads won 8, drawn 2 and lost just 1. They are unbeaten in 10 league games now as well and I fancy them to win this. Bognor have drawn their last 3 games, but they have only won once in their last 10 and they haven't won in their last 9 home matches. The vast majority of bookies are either odds on or evens about an away win which makes Marathon's 117/100 a real stand out bet.
Eastbourne v Whitehawk
I have to back Whitehawk again as I did on Boxing Day as they were all over Eastbourne, but just couldn't score and they were defeated 1-0 and the Eastbourne goal was a penalty. I am clearly not the only person who thinks Whitehawk might get their first win of the season as they have been backed, but they are still value for me at Marathon's 73/20 as there is nowhere near the gap in class between these two sides as the betting suggests, in fact I would have them pretty much the same price.
Merstham v Worthing
You never really know what you are going to get from the home side as prior to losing their last two games, they were unbeaten in 4, but prior to that they had lost 4. Losing 3-1 to Tooting on Saturday was a poor effort and I just have to back Worthing again. I know they only drew against Lowestoft, but they played well again and the fact remains they are making themselves very hard to beat at the moment. No way should they be 31/10 (BetVictor) to win this and they have to be backed.
Tranmere 1.5pts @ 6/4 with Marathon
Leyton Orient 1pt @ 7/2 with Marathon
Solihull Moors 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
Stockport 2pts @143/100 with Marathon
Havant & Waterlooville 3pts @ 117/100 with Marathon
Whitehawk 1pt @ 73/20 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor

Thanks Tiffy, appreciated. Let's stay focused and keep improving to make it a good 2018.

You're making a fortune out of the mighty BHA this season!   Just wait till we sign a couple of strikers in Jan, we will be turning those bore draws into wins hopefully!,
Youve had some good selections recently, hope it carries on into next season.
Happy New Year to everyone on here

Liverpool played defensively and cautiously in the first half against us, basically as Klopp was saying they would in his pre-match press conference. The need to play defensively first and foremost, etc. This comes after the loss of the game in the mad five minutes against arsenal.
I can see the same approach here, with Liverpool playing ultra-cautious and reserved until they or Leicester get that first goal.
Funnily enough, and not like themselves at all, Leicester have of late been really going for it a lot more since their new manager took over. Lots of games seeing one or two goals from them by half time.
Leicester to win the first half at 6/1 screams value to me, as does Liverpool to win from behind 11/2. 

Initially I liked Leicester here, the form of both sides is polarised and this is reflected in huge ELO advantage for Leicester. Leicester are also level or slightly ahead in some other important metrics so I was scratching my head as to why away team were available on +0.25 line!!!
My concern for this match is that Doucoure and Zeegelaar return for home team and they really are key players for Watford. They allow Marco Silva's side to play with much greater intensity and so Leicester can no longer expect to just show up and win - they will have to put in a high level performance here. Other issue is that Leicester have problems at RB and may have to field a 3rd choice player, they could find it tough going against Zeegelaar and Richarlison. 
On top of all that, Leicester price has now shortened so this has become a no bet situation for me. Not trying to put off those backing Leicester in some form as the play makes a lot of sense in a lot of ways, but the price is just not juicy enough imo. GL if you do decide to get involved

West Ham Utd V Newcastle Utd
Newcastle Utd +0.50 AH @ 1.81 Betvictor
There's really not much between these two sides but I think diverging form has skewed the odds in West Ham's favour here.
David Moyes has done a good job thus far at West Ham. He has made the team more disciplined, industrious and confident - just what the doctor ordered. Problem is they are essentially benefiting from recent opposition being too cavalier or too complacent. The Stoke game was a case in point as Mark Hughes side played an insanely high defensive line after going a goal down and that played right into West Ham hands, enabling them to come away with a 3-0 victory.
I don't see the same level of insanity comming from Benitez's Newcastle side. Results have been very poor of late but they perhaps deserved to nick something from Arsenal at the weekend and in general their performances have not dipped to the point where they are dead in the water. They will surely see the West Ham game as a decent chance to end this run of losses and register a positive result.
We talked about West Ham's fitness and work rate being their key strength but that may start to dip this week as they have to play a league cup quater final at the emirates tonight. Crucially, Manuel Lanzini will be absent for that encounter and the Newcastle game as his ban has been upheld. This is a major blow for the hammers as he is their key creative force right now. West Ham also have injury doubts over a number of other important players and if they miss out on Saturday then I expect the Newcastle price to shorten.
Personally I think it will be a tough ask for West Ham to break down a well-drilled Newcastle side in optimum conditions, let alone the situation they are dealing with now. The metrics are close and the ones where West Ham are ahead are only by a small margin. ELO gives Newcastle a three quater goal advantage over the last 2 games which backs my view on their recent performances.
Newcastle's away form has been poor this season and West Ham are in good spirits but those are the only factors which support such a big price for Newcastle. Metrics and present circumstances suggest this game can be an opportunity for Newcastle so I will back them on the +0.50 line here.

Udinese V Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona +1.0 AH @ 1.71 Betvictor
Hellas have picked up recently with only 1 defeat in their last 4 league games and surely the margin of victory over Milan last week would have given them a lot of confidence. I can't say I'm suprised by an upturn in form as Fabio Pecchia is a good coach and his team are now beginning to believe.
Udinese have also been on a good run since the appointment of Massimo Oddo which includes an impressive victory at Inter in the last round. I just feel that Hellas can make life difficult for Udinese in this situation as this is a match the home team is expected to win and so the pressure is on them to make the game. Generally speaking I see Udinese as a disruptor rather than a constructor and so I prefer to oppose them in matches like these. Looking at the metrics we can see that Udinese have a marginal advantage in most areas but not so much that it justifies Hellas being available on the +1 asian line here. The ELO ratings are clearly favourable to the away side with Hellas having a 1.5 goal advantage over the last 2 games which is a significant margin.
The only issues we have going into this match are the absence of midfielder Buchel for Hellas while forward Cerci is an injury doubt. On the flipside, Udinese have to play at Napoli in the cup tonight so they will have less recovery / preparation time for the match against Hellas.
Ultimately I feel the Hellas Verona price is a bit too generous given the circumstances so I will back the away side on the +1 AH line here.
 

West Ham Utd V Newcastle Utd
Newcastle Utd +0.50 AH @ 1.81 Betvictor
There's really not much between these two sides but I think diverging form has skewed the odds in West Ham's favour here.
David Moyes has done a good job thus far at West Ham. He has made the team more disciplined, industrious and confident - just what the doctor ordered. Problem is they are essentially benefiting from recent opposition being too cavalier or too complacent. The Stoke game was a case in point as Mark Hughes side played an insanely high defensive line after going a goal down and that played right into West Ham hands, enabling them to come away with a 3-0 victory.
I don't see the same level of insanity comming from Benitez's Newcastle side. Results have been very poor of late but they perhaps deserved to nick something from Arsenal at the weekend and in general their performances have not dipped to the point where they are dead in the water. They will surely see the West Ham game as a decent chance to end this run of losses and register a positive result.
We talked about West Ham's fitness and work rate being their key strength but that may start to dip this week as they have to play a league cup quater final at the emirates tonight. Crucially, Manuel Lanzini will be absent for that encounter and the Newcastle game as his ban has been upheld. This is a major blow for the hammers as he is their key creative force right now. West Ham also have injury doubts over a number of other important players and if they miss out on Saturday then I expect the Newcastle price to shorten.
Personally I think it will be a tough ask for West Ham to break down a well-drilled Newcastle side in optimum conditions, let alone the situation they are dealing with now. The metrics are close and the ones where West Ham are ahead are only by a small margin. ELO gives Newcastle a three quater goal advantage over the last 2 games which backs my view on their recent performances.
Newcastle's away form has been poor this season and West Ham are in good spirits but those are the only factors which support such a big price for Newcastle. Metrics and present circumstances suggest this game can be an opportunity for Newcastle so I will back them on the +0.50 line here.

I am thinking about Swansea @5,60 or +0,85 @1,90. 
p.s. Well done @Mindfulness  

Adding 1pt Harrogate @ 3/1 with William Hill to beat Wrexham. Team news based this as Wrexham only have 4 players who started last week in the team this afternoon. Very much the look of a reserve side lining up and Harrogate good enough to take advantage of the weakened line up.

2nd gameweek in a row where the card doesn't have much to offer imo. December is always a tough month for some reason, don't know why.
Agree with @andrewcalo on Brighton V Burnley and @Pep004 is right to highlight the difficulties for Palace today. In terms of general play there is not much between the two sides but Leicester are just better at either end of the pitch. Palace have very poor chance conversion and cannot claim to have a keeper on Schmeichel's level. This is why the two teams are where they are in the table. Pep has also mentioned Palace's missing players and if Ward and Fosu-Mensah are both out then I expect Demarai Gray to cause havoc down that flank. For me personally the game is a no bet situation (like so many others on this card) but I cannot argue with those who are backing Leicester.
My two selections for this round:
Brighton & Hove Albion V Burnley = X @ 3.00 Paddy Power
Stoke City V West Ham Utd = X @ 3.40 Betfair

2nd gameweek in a row where the card doesn't have much to offer imo. December is always a tough month for some reason, don't know why.
Agree with @andrewcalo on Brighton V Burnley and @Pep004 is right to highlight the difficulties for Palace today. In terms of general play there is not much between the two sides but Leicester are just better at either end of the pitch. Palace have very poor chance conversion and cannot claim to have a keeper on Schmeichel's level. This is why the two teams are where they are in the table. Pep has also mentioned Palace's missing players and if Ward and Fosu-Mensah are both out then I expect Demarai Gray to cause havoc down that flank. For me personally the game is a no bet situation (like so many others on this card) but I cannot argue with those who are backing Leicester.
My two selections for this round:
Brighton & Hove Albion V Burnley = X @ 3.00 Paddy Power
Stoke City V West Ham Utd = X @ 3.40 Betfair

Accumulator
Crystal Palace V Watford = BTTS
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester Utd
3.24 @ Betfair

Burnley V Watford
X @ 3.25 Unibet
These two teams are 7th and 8th in the table respectively and may just cancel each other out here. We know that Watford travel very well while Burnley are hard to beat and it's hard to imagine either team winning this encounter. Watford price has shortened to the point where an AH play is no longer viable on the away side imo. ELO ratings are close so X seems to be the way forward here.
 
Manchester Utd V Manchester City
X @ 3.6 Betfair
What happens when an unstoppable also-ran meets an immovable yawn feast? Well not a lot probably which is why I like the draw here. Man Utd have a flawless home record in the league, City have a flawless away record in the league. City are of course the better team but they've staggered of late and this should be a tough game for them. On the other hand I doubt Man Utd can get the 3pts they actually need in this fixture. ELO ratings are ridiculously close so I will go for X here.

Accumulator
Everton V Huddersfield Town = Under 3.5
Watford V Tottenham Hotspur = BTTS
Crystal Palace +0.50
Manchester Utd +0.50
AC Milan
6.52 @ Unibet

Accumulator
Everton V Huddersfield Town = Under 3.5
Watford V Tottenham Hotspur = BTTS
Crystal Palace +0.50
Manchester Utd +0.50
AC Milan
6.52 @ Unibet

The final round of Champions League group stage game take place next week. The odds and ratings are available to view here. Let's see what you're predicting. Before you do that, what is the state of play in each group?
Group A
Manchester United need a point against CSKA Moscow to top the group. It's going to take a loss and a win for Basel away to Benfica for them to fail to qualify. Whoever misses out from United, CSKA, and Basel will enter the Europa League.
Group B
PSG and Bayern Munich have already qualified for the next phase. Celtic will qualify for the Europa League barring a catastrophic defeat to Anderlecht in their final game.
Group C
Chelsea have qualified for the next round with a game to spare. They need to beat Atletico Madrid to seal top spot. Atletico need to win and hope Roma fail to beat Qarabag. It's a lot to ask! It seems Atletico are looking more likely to advance to the Europa League.
Group D
Barcelona have qualified for the next round and should be joined by Juventus. The Old Lady must equal or better Sporting CP's result when they take on bottom-placed Olympiakos. It's a tall order for Sporting CP who look destined for Europa League action next year.
Group E
It's wide open in this group. Liverpool were on the brink of qualifying but those hopes were scuppered by Sevilla last week. Those two sides and Spartak Moscow will battle for the top two spots with just 3 points separating the three sides. The losing side will advance to the Europa League. Liverpool and Sevilla will certainly be expecting to be favourites to qualify for the next round but who knows what will happen?!
Group F
Manchester City have made light work of this group having already qualified with a 100% record. They will be hoping to carry that on in to the last game. They will be joined by either Shakhtar Donetsk or Napoli. Napoli must beat Feyenood and hope City do them a favour by beating Shakhtar. Otherwise, the Ukrainian side progress and the Italian side are condemned to the Europa League.
Group G
Besiktas have defied the odds to qualify and are looking to finish top of the group. Porto and RB Leipzig will fight it out for the second placed qualification spot. Both teams are tied on the same points but Porto edge it on goal difference. Porto are favourites but it's going to be tight.
Group H
Tottenham and Real Madrid have both qualified for the next round already. Borussia Dortmund and APOEL will still be competing for the Europa League spot.
Right then, let's hear your tips for this final round of group games! 
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