Torque

This looks like quite a difficult card comming off the back of the international break which does not help matters.
Important to consider that the sword of damocles looms over Di Francesco (Sampdoria), Giampaolo (AC Milan), Andreazzoli (Genoa) and possibly Tudor (Udinese). There may have been one or two managerial changes by the time this league restarts on the 19th, which again can muddy the waters even more.
Both Brescia and Sassuolo will have had a 3 week gap between Serie A fixtures as their match was postponed on Friday. Brescia at least will play a club friendly this weekend.
I have my shortlist drawn up, will track price movements and team news but no early bets so far. The Italian landscape remains foggy for now.
 

Thanks Torque, but unfortunately that’s that after the first bet! Knox was one ahead with 3 holes to play and found the water in 2 of the 3, finishing bogey, bogey, double  bogey. I would say that’s unlucky, but the other bets I was contemplating today were goals in the arsenal game and Scott to be the highest Australian in the golf, neither of which came in so I’ve come to the conclusion it ain’t going to happen for me...
Good luck with your attempt torque. I’ve been following ‘offline’ and you play it well, being patient with well thought out reasoning in your bets, just been unlucky a few times now. My only advice would be to bank a bit of the money if you do get on a bit of a roll. Best of luck.

BOL @League1_punter. You can definitely do it - I've turned 100 into 1000 more than once - but there's no doubt it's hard to do.

Week 8
*Every week i deal with over 130 bets made by the players of this competition, manually settled and entered onto a spreadsheet. Each week is copy and paste the odds and produce league tables, mostly accurate?. Oh and dont forget the £2000 per year prize money we give away.
In return all we ask is for the members to choose some teams, quote the odds and add their stake, its not asking too much is it??
Players have 5 days to perform this act, not 5 minutes on a Saturday.
On a brighter note, well done to Runadrum who landed a monster 40/1+ draw treble this week
* A lot of Monday bets still to sort out.
Overall Table

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

@Rey86 Of course anything can be learned if you have the will and discipline to do it, but sports betting is different.
Blackjack Basic Strategy - lots of people think they know this, but you'll be amazed how many get it wrong and you only need to make a handful of wrong decisions to make that low 0.25% house edge roar into a 5% edge. I was sat next to someone in the MGM a couple of years back who said he knew how to play basic strategy, yet refused to surrender or take another card every time when he had 16 against the dealers 10, or JQK  
Poker - there's a hell of a lot of skill here, but to be honest you're often playing the player not the cards.
Sports Betting - oh jeeesus where do I start!  
One thing you must have is discipline or you're doomed, this means managing your betting bank properly and being patient. The other major thing you must have which can take quite a long time, is the understanding of value, overround and how to compile your own odds, which is often a gut feeling to an extent, but of course based on stats and form.
I've often tried to explain in quite simple terms what value is, and I'll repeat it again here.
Liverpool are playing Norwich at home and are fully expected to win....
Would you back Liverpool at 1.01? If not, why not.
Would you back Liverpool at 1.05? If not, why not.
Would you back Liverpool at 1.10? If not, why not.
Basically, there is always a point where you will back that team and the odds dictate the bet, not the team. So where's the line? Apply that to each bet and you won't go far wrong.

This is (unfortunately) not correct

Matteo Berrettini (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 2.00 with Pinnacle
Going against Murray once again. Granted, Berrettini shouldn't pose him the same fitness issues as De Minaur, but he's a better player overall and he's been crunching it for a while now. Motivation shouldn't be an issue at all and he shouldn't have too many nerves after facing both Monfils and Nadal with reasonable success in the US Open, so I think Murray is going to suffer another defeat here. He just doesn't seem to be in a competitive shape at the moment.

It's been a disappointing start but I'm not deterred by it.  Looking through the past results there are many losing streaks and it only takes a few wins to get back on track.  I will keep posting the selections and results.  There's nothing for tomorrow and it doesn't look like there are any possible selections for the following few days.

Thanks for your interest Blinking Spirit. Looking back over at least 55 years of betting how things have changed over that time. At the start my main information came from the Sporting Life and such characters as Prince Monolulu. All very basic stuff. Today with the internet how much easier it is. With all my present day bets I do varying amounts of study. How I envy all the 'maths' punters who can work out stats etc at the drop of a hat. My way is a lot more basic. I usually look at recent results in football and do a varying amount of different kinds of bets to suit the situation. For instance: Arsenal can't defend, Newcastle can't score etc. In golf and cricket the weather plays a big part so I look at the weather forecasts for these events. Despite all this studying I still 'chase' my losses and do silly bets in a moment of stupidity. As for the England/Tonga game I thought the bet was a 'good thing' but I didn't anticipate the number of substitutions England would make which broke up the game. Over the years I've made good money and lost good money but at least it's not been boring. My record on this site has been patchy to say the least but I am hopeful of getting it right this time. 

I didn't see it but I'll be opposing Murray. Physically I don't think he's up to playing professional singles tournaments - what I mean is I think his body needs more time to recover between matches than he's getting. I'm convinced that's the explanation for his poor performance against Viola in Mallorca after he'd beaten a far better player in Gombos.

I didn't see it but I'll be opposing Murray. Physically I don't think he's up to playing professional singles tournaments - what I mean is I think his body needs more time to recover between matches than he's getting. I'm convinced that's the explanation for his poor performance against Viola in Mallorca after he'd beaten a far better player in Gombos.

And motivation issues it looked and sounded like as well 

Normally I try to put up a few words about why I'm backing something before the off, but I didn't get a chance tonight so instead I'll do it retrospectively and also reflect on how the bet panned out...
San Marino against Belgium pitted the worst international team in the world against the best, and the discrepancy between the two teams was highlighted by the fact you couldn't even back Belgium for the win on the exchanges as nobody wanted to lay them. With a win for Belgium a virtual certainty, the next question was how many would they win by. Ahead of the start, the line I was looking at was over 3.5 goals at about 1.10. I wasn't keen to back that many goals though, because as much as it was highly likely there would be a lot of goals ultimately there's little incentive for a big favourite to run up a big score - if it happens it happens, but if not and as long as the win is secured then it's no big deal. The over 2.5 goal line was about 1.03 and that felt to me like the minimum number of goals Belgium would get as a 1-0 or 2-0 win against such limited opposition would be slightly embarrassing for the best team in the world. As 1.03 was shorter than I wanted to back at, I requested 1.05 in-play and hoped for a slow start to the match and within about 10 minutes the bet was matched.
As expected, Belgium were dominating in all the key stats but they hadn't yet scored and that continued until about five minutes before half-time when they finally broke the deadlock. At this point the bet I bought at 1.05 was now trading at 1.15 - still very likely to win but much less likely than before the match started - and I wasn't feeling confident as I wondered if Belgium might just get a second goal and then sit back for a comfortable win. Fortunately, and this was one of the reasons I took the bet, the Belgian manager is attack-minded and was no doubt unhappy with the lack of goals and so sent on a couple of substitutes and it was those substitutes that quickly scored the goals needed for my bet to land. At this point I didn't care what happened during the rest of the match, but I kept an eye on it to see if the over 3.5 goal line would land. Heading into injury time it looked like there would only be three goals, but with almost the last kick of the game Belgium got a fourth. I'm glad I didn't back four goals or more though - I'm trying to find things to back that win comfortably and that definitely wouldn't have been a comfortable win if I'd been on it.

Some bondage on his left leg after just 7 games' you still go with Medvedev? 
Bandage not bondage sorry???

https://www.essentiallysports.com/stan-wawrinka-isnt-optimally-fit-before-for-his-quarterfinal-encounter-the-us-open-2019/
I think this is important information 

Kristie Ahn (+1.5 sets) to beat Elise Mertens at 2.09 with Pinnacle
I have no idea what these odds are all about. Sure, Mertens is the better player of the two, but they've met four times and Ahn has managed to win two of those encounters, so I think that she's going to be biting hard given her form.
Rafael Nadal (-2.5 sets) to beat Marin Cilic at 1.91 with Pinnacle
Fine margins here obviously, but Cilic doesn't seem to be in any sort of form to trouble Nadal. He's given up many break points against Isner and he's going to give up many more against Nadal, who I still see as the main favorite for the title.

Das stimmt wohl, selbst bei djokovic oder Federer würde ich nie auf einen 3-0 Sieg Wetten, weil es denen eben nichts bedeutet, wenn die mal einen Satz abgeben.

well, sinner is a much better player than lorenzi. anyways i don't like betting on straight-sets victories respectively minus games handicaps at all. 
in the end the players just need to win their matches to advance. they don't care about our bets. in germany we got a proverb that goes like this:
a good horse jumps only as high as it needs to.

Probably should expand a bit... First thing Evans has to do is get into a winning position which I don't think happens. Then, having got into a winning position he's got to close out and in a pressure cooker situation I don't think he's able to do it. I'm thinking back to Wimbledon and also a bit further back when he got to the Delray Beach final. 

Me neither. But Townsend was amazing today, her volleys were like good old Llodra or Stepanek, though she was helped by the fact that Halep apparently doesn't know what lobs are and what they are used for.

I watched her yesterday and she looked like she had cement shoes on. Definitely injured, and very lethargic.
Damn, my brother has 4 x $550  courtside stadium tickets for Tuesday next week at Arthur Ashe. Wish I was going. Lucky guy, but it's a full day trip up to NY from Philadelphia, but seriously worth it. 
One thing to check before betting is the weather. If you get a stinking hot day, go for the player who comes from a warm weather background. They are far more used to the heat, and won't fade. Today is 23 degrees.
Three  woman's macthes that I think are pretty solid. Petra Martic over Ana Bogdan, Karolina Muchova over Hseith and Mladenovic over Ferro.
 
 

Nice steady progress here Torque, keep up the good work! 

That really was atrocious from Berdych. He made Brooksby look like Djokovic. Incredible to think he's five years younger than Fed. He looks done to me - wouldn't be surprised if he calls it quits soon.

That really was atrocious from Berdych. He made Brooksby look like Djokovic. Incredible to think he's five years younger than Fed. He looks done to me - wouldn't be surprised if he calls it quits soon.

Not sure what is going on we are usually 3-0 down by now  
On a serious note this is a big improvement from us but will be amazed if this ends 0-0
Ohhhhhh Pepe you have to finish that