harry_rag

You are correct in my opinion, Singles are always a better option, for me the fc and tc are more like fun bets simply because i think if i speed rate a race and i am correct with my figures i like to do fc and tc when the odds are big because i think to myself why do all that work if your not going to use it. it can get expensive so i stick to 2yo pattern races mainly. i like multiples too (lucky 15 because of the double odds for one winner) but again i agree the bookies love them for a reason and its a long time between drinks. okay when your on form but horrendouse at those times you cant buy a winner which happens to us all.

I remain to be convinced that multiples or forecasts etc are a better option than singles.
You are unlikely to get the best prices because an individual bookie is unlikely to be offering the best odds on every selection.
Your average stakes will also need to be lower to maintain your bank, therefore your total winnings will be lower.
There must be a reason why bookis like multiple bets.

It's a bit more nuanced than that (and I speak as someone who tends to stick to singles these days, for practical reasons).
Sticking to singles will preserve the bank longer if you are a losing punter (as the bookies have the edge and doubles etc. would multiply your disadvantage). If you are making a profit with singles then playing doubles etc. should multiply your edge. I suspect some people would respond to your statement with "I suppose it depends on whether you can be bothered working out the optimum way to stake your selections to get the best return or just prefer to keep it simple with singles".
My anytime goalscorer system is (for the time being, at least) back in profit but it wouldn't be viable to even consider playing doubles because most of the bets are on the exchange and there's rarely two bets at a time with the same bookie. That's my excuse for sticking to singles! 

All seems very messy, I just stick to win singles, I think long term this is the most profitable option, especially if you don't  want to drain the bank.
I suppose it depends on whether you want the buzz of an occasional big win

What happens is there is a message that says something like "multiple bets are restricted".  This is on Bet365.  Betfair Sportsbook wouldn't even let me combine two selections from two races.  They all seem to be very wary of combination bets, especially at big odds.  I will give it a go-to do them separately but I only have two betting accounts and tbh I don't want to start opening up a number of accounts with my modest betting bank. I rather fear that once I started to arrange the bets one after the other on the Bet365 it would probably block me from doing so with the same message.  It may be worth setting up perhaps one or two more different bookies accounts though.  Do you know which ones I could use which would give me BOG and has competitive prices? I don't know why I don't get BOG with Bet365, I am not exactly bleeding them dry am I? 
 

How do they “seem to stop you”? Do they just not allow you to put the bet on in one go, so that you could just put the separate doubles on? Takes a bit longer but might still let you get the required coverage?

Kilbeggan : Bonarc 1st @ 7\1, Ballybaun Star 2nd @ 16\1, Upping the Anti 1st @ 6\1, 
Leopardstown : Simply Glorious 2nd @ 13\2 
Navan
14.40 Wild Eyed girl @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
15.15 Primo Uomo @ 12\1  1/5 1-3
15.50 Teddy Boy @ 5\1  1/5 1-6
16.25 Selador @ 15\2  1/4 1-2
17.00 Isaiah @ 40\1  1/5 1-6
17.35 Paris Lights @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
Wexford
15.05 Herculaneum @ 10\1  1/5 1-4
15.40 So Scottish @ 5\1  1/5 1-4
16.50 Clarabello @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

Win Only

I'm going to try and start this again.  I haven't been betting much over the last few weeks at all, just following random bets on here.  
Anyway, I'll stick £10 on Ukraine to win Eurovision.  

Chelsea vs Liverpool
The 2021/22 FA Cup Final is finally here and it will see Chelsea play Liverpool in a 4:45pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon from Wembley Stadium. Now, call me old-fashioned but what is wrong with a proper classic 3pm BST kick-off? The game's gone! Anyway, on to the more important matter at hand. Who will prevail victorious in this battle between two of the biggest clubs in European football right now?
Chelsea have experienced what can only be described as a rollercoaster of a season so far. The club have already lifted two trophies in the shape of the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup but they have also suffered defeat in the EFL Cup Final, fallen some way short of challenging for the Premier League title, and failed to defend their Champions League title. Oh, they have also lost Roman Abramovich as their owner. Can Thomas Tuchel's men give the Blues supporters something positive to end their season on by lifting a 9th FA Cup trophy and first since 2018? Chelsea have only failed to score in 1 of their last 17 matches across all competitions so the fire power is potent right now. The team have also kept clean sheets in their previous two FA Cup matches.
Liverpool know that the dream of an unprecedented quadruple is on the verge of dying after their disappointing 1-1 draw with Tottenham that appears to have left title rivals Manchester City on the brink of retaining the Premier League crown. Jurgen Klopp's side still have a chance to make history here by winning the club's first FA Cup trophy since 2006. We all remember that classic against West Ham don't we? The Reds still have a highly-anticipated clash with Real Madrid to come later this month in the Champions League Final so a very prestigious treble is still on target thanks to their EFL Cup win over Chelsea earlier in the year. Liverpool come into this game having scored in each of their previous 15 games across all competitions and have won 7 of their last 8 matches in all competitions.
I appreciate that once again the FA Cup is being contested between two clubs that aren't unfamiliar with trips to Wembley but the fact Chelsea have only won this competition once in the last 10 seasons and Liverpool haven't won it since 2006 means it's at least being fought between two clubs that aren't overly used to winning it. I have to say that with the last three meetings ended in draws over 90 minutes I wouldn't be surprised to see the same here. I think fatigue has started to hit with some players and I wouldn't be surprised if we go all the way in this one.
Draw @ 3.60 with Betfred
BTTS @ 1.80 with VBet

My average fair odds are 2.67. If they were accurate then you'd have expected 37.45% of the players to have scored one or more, or 557 so we're certainly in the right ballpark on that basis. Taking poisson as a guide, the expectations for 2 or more or a hat trick look like this:
Brace: 8.12% or 120 versus actual number of 94
Hat trick: 1.22% or 18 versus actual number of 17
I'd say the figures for 2+ illustrate the expected shortfall while the hat trick figures are a small sample related blip. Let's compare that to a real example from today's games:
Harry Kane's fair odds to score would be 2.62 versus best bookie odds of 6/4 (not unusual for Kane to be hard to get at a value price; I struggle to get him at fair + 10% edge on the exchanges).
His fair odds for a brace would be just shy of 11/1 versus best odds of 10/1. The hat trick is 76/1 versus 66/1.
Those figures aren't as emphatic as I'd expected but the true odds as a % of the fair odds does decrease (95.45 for anytime, 91.7% for brace and 88.2% for hat trick). I'd say Sky Bet are unusually out of line here with the multi goal prices and the next best prices of 7/1 and 50/1 are more typical and make the point more.
I should probably have looked for a better example but the point is, it seems harder to find apparently value prices in the multi markets compared to anytime.

My average fair odds are 2.67. If they were accurate then you'd have expected 37.45% of the players to have scored one or more, or 557 so we're certainly in the right ballpark on that basis. Taking poisson as a guide, the expectations for 2 or more or a hat trick look like this:
Brace: 8.12% or 120 versus actual number of 94
Hat trick: 1.22% or 18 versus actual number of 17
I'd say the figures for 2+ illustrate the expected shortfall while the hat trick figures are a small sample related blip. Let's compare that to a real example from today's games:
Harry Kane's fair odds to score would be 2.62 versus best bookie odds of 6/4 (not unusual for Kane to be hard to get at a value price; I struggle to get him at fair + 10% edge on the exchanges).
His fair odds for a brace would be just shy of 11/1 versus best odds of 10/1. The hat trick is 76/1 versus 66/1.
Those figures aren't as emphatic as I'd expected but the true odds as a % of the fair odds does decrease (95.45 for anytime, 91.7% for brace and 88.2% for hat trick). I'd say Sky Bet are unusually out of line here with the multi goal prices and the next best prices of 7/1 and 50/1 are more typical and make the point more.
I should probably have looked for a better example but the point is, it seems harder to find apparently value prices in the multi markets compared to anytime.

And, in a similar vein, how many scored the first goal, but I don't record that at the moment. In terms of numbers of goals scored (from my overall data sample, matched or not) I can say the following:
From 1487 players, 562 scored one or more goals (37.97%). My actual bet strike rate lags that at 32.96%.
469 scored exactly 1 goal, 77 scored twice, 13 managed a hat trick and 3 have scored 4 or more goals.
I'll check this out later but my opinion (based on years of betting in these markets) is that you are likely to find value in the anytime price more often than you find it in the brace or hat trick markets. You probably get more "mug" money in the multi goal markets, i.e. the sort who just see a "big price" and equate that to value, allowing the bookies to apply a bigger margin.

4 out of 7 yesterday (Lukaku, Vardy, De Bruyne and Sterling)
119 winners from 361 bets (32.96%) for a profit of 20.72 points.

Would be interesting to look back over your scorers so far to see how many got a second or third goal.

Wonder what the odds were for De Bruyne scoring three. I'm surprised you don't look at braces and hat-tricks - more losers obviously, but when the wins come they can be sweet.

10 points each on Foden at 3.05, Sterling at 2.82 and De Bruyne at 3.064

Very pleased to confirm that the bank closed yesterday at €2,022, so we achieved the bank doubling on this cycle.
So we have
Cycle 1 -€579
Cycle 2 +€1,022
A nice profit to date overall I think we can all agree. We bank our profits and go onto Cycle 3, we start again with €1,000; stake is 3% of the banks opening balance at the start of that day. If our bank doubles before it halves this cycle we will likely look to use some of our banked profits to start with a slightly higher bank and look to compound our money.

Ok, let's call it 20 points (bank doubled) after 46 bets. (Might be 20.01 depending on rounding of commission).
From here on in I'll stake 10 points per bet which will give me the option of having 2 selections in play at the same time. Not likely to happen often but as the objective is consecutive bets I might as well do it that way.

Max Homa keeps his cool and wins! Well done to @Xtc12 indeed.
I do believe Cameron Young ran into a placed effort with a good final round for you as well mate. Superb tipping.

A winner I see (at second glance). I think I looked at the shots off target stats which were 4-6 rather than 6-4 so thought we just had a push.
20-10 and 4 pushes for a 7.877 point profit so far with an ROI of +23.51%

A winner I see (at second glance). I think I looked at the shots off target stats which were 4-6 rather than 6-4 so thought we just had a push.
20-10 and 4 pushes for a 7.877 point profit so far with an ROI of +23.51%

That was quite the game!  

Hull +2 Asian handicap corners v Forest, 1pt at 1.9 with 365

That’s not even a limit, that’s “make hay while the sun shines”.
@four-leaf is being genuinely limited. 

No offence. My answer was bad too! Im not here to promote myself. Im here trying to find something useful to help the community. Fight the bookers is my objective. Not fighting my comrades! Have a nice day!