harry_rag Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 ...and tilting at the proverbial windmill of the consecutive bets leaderboard. Dodging bullets in as much as that's the view I've always tended towards for this sort of short odds betting, watching paint dry as this could take an exceedingly long time. I won't be looking for these bets (at least until I potentially get hooked on betting this way) but will post them when I find them (as per the opening salvo which follows shortly). 10 points stake and all in initally. Here goes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Bet 1 - 10 points on <8.5 cards shown in Barcelona v Elche at 1/200 with PP (I feel dirty just typing that price). This comes out of my study leading to the bet on <40 points as posted in the Spanish footy thread, Better value would be to sell bookings 70-ups at 1 with SPIN (win 1 x stake as long as bookings don't go >70, lose 1 x stake for every point of they went over) but, as the aim here is just racking up consecutive winners I'll take the worse price for the extra headroom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Bet 1 - 10 points on <8.5 cards shown in Barcelona v Elche at 1/200 with PP (I feel dirty just typing that price). This comes out of my study leading to the bet on <40 points as posted in the Spanish footy thread, Better value would be to sell bookings 70-ups at 1 with SPIN (win 1 x stake as long as bookings don't go >70, lose 1 x stake for every point of they went over) but, as the aim here is just racking up consecutive winners I'll take the worse price for the extra headroom. I’m not sure if those odds count Good luck harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, JdsGooner90 said: I’m not sure if those odds count If you're going to get down and dirty you might as well go all the way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 (edited) About time you joined in, good luck ? Edited December 18, 2021 by aldric Typo harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 19 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 1 - 10 points on <8.5 cards shown in Barcelona v Elche at 1/200 with PP (I feel dirty just typing that price). Won (4 yellows). 10.05 points carried forward. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds") Interesting ref appointment in Aydinus, career average of 52.3 points but latest 3 seasons just 37. He averages 70 across 8 renewals of this head to head (with 2 as low as 30 and 2 over 100). I'd say the ref has eased off his card flashing over his long career. I could make a case for selling bookings 100-ups at 1.5 (wins as long as bookings don't go >100) but, with this fixture, anything can happen even with a mellowing ref. Ultimately this is a fixture that doesn't seem to pass off without both sides seeing at least one card and I'll take a chance on that tradition continuing today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card in Fenerbahce v Besiktas at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds") Interesting ref appointment in Aydinus, career average of 52.3 points but latest 3 seasons just 37. He averages 70 across 8 renewals of this head to head (with 2 as low as 30 and 2 over 100). I'd say the ref has eased off his card flashing over his long career. I could make a case for selling bookings 100-ups at 1.5 (wins as long as bookings don't go >100) but, with this fixture, anything can happen even with a mellowing ref. Ultimately this is a fixture that doesn't seem to pass off without both sides seeing at least one card and I'll take a chance on that tradition continuing today. Be helpful if I stated the fixture I suppose! aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card in Fenerbahce v Besiktas at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds") The third yellow (and first for the hosts) arrived after 75 minutes. 10.35 points carried forward. 5 now, split 2-3, in the time it took me to type this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 With mentioning points for your bet stake do I assume there is no money involved? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 45 minutes ago, Skittle said: With mentioning points for your bet stake do I assume there is no money involved? I don't know, do you? No, there is money involved, I'm just very much used to posting my stakes as points because one man's vulgar large stake is another man's pathetic insignificant amount. I don't necessarily want to do away with all the mystery but you might as well assume that 1 point is a quid for the purposes of this thread. I wouldn't feel it was worth trying this out as a paper trade exercise. peanut peanut 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Levante v Valencia: "Correct Score 2 Home" market, 10.35 points on any unquoted at 1.02 on BF Bet wins unless Levante win scoring 4, 5, 6 or 7 goals with Valencia scoring 0, 1 or 2 in reply. (So 4-3 etc. would be ok) A bit of a convoluted market born out of me chasing prices relating to Valencia +4 or Levante <4 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glennhughes Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 That market always confused me a bit... Is that a Lay of Any Unquoted or a Back? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glennhughes Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 In Correct Score 2 Home, Back is 1.02 and Lay is 1.03 so I assume you're backing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glennhughes Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just read your explanation again, sounded more like a Lay, it's gone to 1.04 now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, glennhughes said: That market always confused me a bit... Is that a Lay of Any Unquoted or a Back? Took me a while to get my swede round it! 14 minutes ago, glennhughes said: In Correct Score 2 Home, Back is 1.02 and Lay is 1.03 so I assume you're backing? Yes, I suppose I could have explicitly stated that though a lay at those odds would be a back at 50/1 which is hardly conducive with the thread. Happy to be corrected but I'd say "x points on y at z" clearly implies a back and a lay would be expressed as "lay x for (stake) y at (price) z". 15 minutes ago, glennhughes said: Just read your explanation again, sounded more like a Lay, it's gone to 1.04 now I'm effectively laying the specific scores I mentioned in the explanation by backing any unquoted in this market. Anything where Levante score less than 4 or more than 7 is a winner. Even if they manage between 4 and 7 I still win if Valencia score 3 or more. See what you lot have got me doing! glennhughes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2-0 now so getting a tad uncomfortable! The 1/16 for both teams carded that I briefly entertained has already landed too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Levante v Valencia: "Correct Score 2 Home" market, 10.35 points on any unquoted at 1.02 on BF Valencia’s 3rd goal sees the bet settled as a winner. 10.55 points carried forward to bet 4. glennhughes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Bet 4: 10.55 points on 20+ booking points at 1/100 in Sevilla v Barcelona with Sky Bet If price was a factor then 1+ cards for each team at 1/14 or backing either team to get one at 1/50 or 1/40 respectively might make some appeal. As the aim is simply racking up consecutive winning bets then I guess the correct approach is take the safest option regardless of price. I need 2 cards but don't care which team gets them. With a bookings expectation around the 60 mark the hosts aiming to beat a vulnerable Barca team I don't see this being too low on cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I'm liking the analysis, although lots of effort for the low odds bets! ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, aldric said: I'm liking the analysis, although lots of effort for the low odds bets! It's coming out of the study I'd do when looking for a potential bookings bet, e.g. checking the ref stats and trawling for prices. I only have to widen my gaze slightly beyond what I'd be doing anyway so it's not entirely additional effort. On busier days I might not have time to look as closely so there probably won't be any bets in this thread. I'm surprised at the breakneck pace (one a day) so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 4: 10.55 points on 20+ booking points at 1/100 in Sevilla v Barcelona with Sky Bet Weighed in after 35 minutes as the 2nd yellow arrives (one for each team). 10.66 points carried forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Weighed in after 35 minutes as the 2nd yellow arrives (one for each team). 10.66 points carried forward. Easy win.. looks like a nice bet, shame betfair don't do more with bookings. Off to a solid start, well done ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Bet 5: 10.66 points on 20+ booking points at 1/150 in Granada v A Madrid with Sky Bet From a value perspective it pains me to take that price rather that 1/16 for each team being shown a card but I keep reminding myself it would be poor form to take that bet when there's an option at shorter odds which wins if that does but could also win if it doesn't. (The last meeting between the teams saw all 5 cards go to the same team). It's hard to see this ref failing to flash a card at both teams or showing any less than 3 in total. PP's 13/10 for >6.5 cards is a backable price. (Probably better than my "system" bet on 4-6 cards at similar odds to be honest). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 5: 10.66 points on 20+ booking points at 1/150 in Granada v A Madrid with Sky Bet Not a bet I was expecting to take 67 minutes to land, phew! 10.73 points carried forward. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Bet 6: 10.73 points on 20+ booking points at 1/250 in Porto v Benfica with Sky Bet A new low for a price in this thread but, as I keep having to remind myself, price isn't the key factor here. PP bet builder offering ok odds for 1+ cards each if you prefer. If this was a league game then you could make a case for this outcome being genuinely "no offers". Even in a cup game I can't see it not happening. Decent ref booking in Fabio Verissimo. He has been known to show less than 2 cards in a cup game but pretty much never in a league game (and this is at least on a par with the average Portuguese league game in terms of bookings expectation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 6: 10.73 points on 20+ booking points at 1/250 in Porto v Benfica with Sky Bet In after 22 minutes. 10.77 points carried forward. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 Bet 7: 10.77 points on Man C >0.5 corners in each half v Leicester at 1/40 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds") Big odds (though not the biggest) for this thread! I just can't see City not gaining at least one flag kick in each half. Just realised I might have missed a trick here though, could've probably done >0.5 total in each half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2021 Author Share Posted December 26, 2021 2 minutes in and it's now simply a bet on City getting at least one 2nd half corner. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: 2 minutes in and it's now simply a bet on City getting at least one 2nd half corner. Didnt take long.. Loads of corners in this game! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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