Jump to content
Announcements
** April Poker League Result : 1st Rhino_Power, 2nd muttley, =3rd Elliott Sutcliffe & Rav **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st Soi Bongkot, 2nd Power900, 3rd Gazza's United, 4th Trotter, 5th Rainbow **
** April Naps Competition Result: 1st PercyP, 2nd daisychain, 3rd Costello, 4th silver fox. KO Cup Winner Kingdom for. Most Winners bymatrix: **

Dodging Bullets Whilst Watching Paint Dry...


harry_rag
 Share

Recommended Posts

...and tilting at the proverbial windmill of the consecutive bets leaderboard.

Dodging bullets in as much as that's the view I've always tended towards for this sort of short odds betting, watching paint dry as this could take an exceedingly long time. I won't be looking for these bets (at least until I potentially get hooked on betting this way) but will post them when I find them (as per the opening salvo which follows shortly). 10 points stake and all in initally.

Here goes! :unsure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 1 - 10 points on <8.5 cards shown in Barcelona v Elche at 1/200 with PP (I feel dirty just typing that price).

This comes out of my study leading to the bet on <40 points as posted in the Spanish footy thread, Better value would be to sell bookings 70-ups at 1 with SPIN (win 1 x stake as long as bookings don't go >70, lose 1 x stake for every point of they went over) but, as the aim here is just racking up consecutive winners I'll take the worse price for the extra headroom.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 1 - 10 points on <8.5 cards shown in Barcelona v Elche at 1/200 with PP (I feel dirty just typing that price).

This comes out of my study leading to the bet on <40 points as posted in the Spanish footy thread, Better value would be to sell bookings 70-ups at 1 with SPIN (win 1 x stake as long as bookings don't go >70, lose 1 x stake for every point of they went over) but, as the aim here is just racking up consecutive winners I'll take the worse price for the extra headroom.

 

I’m not sure if those odds count :lol 

Good luck :hope 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds")

Interesting ref appointment in Aydinus, career average of 52.3 points but latest 3 seasons just 37. He averages 70 across 8 renewals of this head to head (with 2 as low as 30 and 2 over 100). I'd say the ref has eased off his card flashing over his long career.

I could make a case for selling bookings 100-ups at 1.5 (wins as long as bookings don't go >100) but, with this fixture, anything can happen even with a mellowing ref. Ultimately this is a fixture that doesn't seem to pass off without both sides seeing at least one card and I'll take a chance on that tradition continuing today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card in Fenerbahce v Besiktas at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds")

Interesting ref appointment in Aydinus, career average of 52.3 points but latest 3 seasons just 37. He averages 70 across 8 renewals of this head to head (with 2 as low as 30 and 2 over 100). I'd say the ref has eased off his card flashing over his long career.

I could make a case for selling bookings 100-ups at 1.5 (wins as long as bookings don't go >100) but, with this fixture, anything can happen even with a mellowing ref. Ultimately this is a fixture that doesn't seem to pass off without both sides seeing at least one card and I'll take a chance on that tradition continuing today.

Be helpful if I stated the fixture I suppose! :eyes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 2 - 10.05 points on both teams being shown at least 1 card in Fenerbahce v Besiktas at 1/33 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds")

The third yellow (and first for the hosts) arrived after 75 minutes. 10.35 points carried forward. 5 now, split 2-3, in the time it took me to type this!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Skittle said:

With mentioning points for your bet stake do I assume there is no money involved?

I don't know, do you? ;)

No, there is money involved, I'm just very much used to posting my stakes as points because one man's vulgar large stake is another man's pathetic insignificant amount. I don't necessarily want to do away with all the mystery but you might as well assume that 1 point is a quid for the purposes of this thread.

I wouldn't feel it was worth trying this out as a paper trade exercise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Levante v Valencia: "Correct Score 2 Home" market, 10.35 points on any unquoted at 1.02 on BF

Bet wins unless Levante win scoring 4, 5, 6 or 7 goals with Valencia scoring 0, 1 or 2 in reply. (So 4-3 etc. would be ok)

A bit of a convoluted market born out of me chasing prices relating to Valencia +4 or Levante <4 goals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, glennhughes said:

That market always confused me a bit... Is that a Lay of Any Unquoted or a Back? 

Took me a while to get my swede round it! :)

 

14 minutes ago, glennhughes said:

In Correct Score 2 Home, Back is 1.02 and Lay is 1.03 so I assume you're backing?

Yes, I suppose I could have explicitly stated that though a lay at those odds would be a back at 50/1 which is hardly conducive with the thread. Happy to be corrected but I'd say "x points on y at z" clearly implies a back and a lay would be expressed as "lay x for (stake) y at (price) z".

 

15 minutes ago, glennhughes said:

Just read your explanation again, sounded more like a Lay, it's gone to 1.04 now 

I'm effectively laying the specific scores I mentioned in the explanation by backing any unquoted in this market. Anything where Levante score less than 4 or more than 7 is a winner. Even if they manage between 4 and 7 I still win if Valencia score 3 or more. See what you lot have got me doing! :lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 4: 10.55 points on 20+ booking points at 1/100 in Sevilla v Barcelona with Sky Bet

If price was a factor then 1+ cards for each team at 1/14 or backing either team to get one at 1/50 or 1/40 respectively might make some appeal. As the aim is simply racking up consecutive winning bets then I guess the correct approach is take the safest option regardless of price. I need 2 cards but don't care which team gets them.

With a bookings expectation around the 60 mark the hosts aiming to beat a vulnerable Barca team I don't see this being too low on cards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, aldric said:

I'm liking the analysis, although lots of effort for the low odds bets!

It's coming out of the study I'd do when looking for a potential bookings bet, e.g. checking the ref stats and trawling for prices. I only have to widen my gaze slightly beyond what I'd be doing anyway so it's not entirely additional effort.

On busier days I might not have time to look as closely so there probably won't be any bets in this thread. I'm surprised at the breakneck pace (one a day) so far!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 5: 10.66 points on 20+ booking points at 1/150 in Granada v A Madrid with Sky Bet

From a value perspective it pains me to take that price rather that 1/16 for each team being shown a card but I keep reminding myself it would be poor form to take that bet when there's an option at shorter odds which wins if that does but could also win if it doesn't. (The last meeting between the teams saw all 5 cards go to the same team).

It's hard to see this ref failing to flash a card at both teams or showing any less than 3 in total. PP's 13/10 for >6.5 cards is a backable price. (Probably better than my "system" bet on 4-6 cards at similar odds to be honest).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 6: 10.73 points on 20+ booking points at 1/250 in Porto v Benfica with Sky Bet

A new low for a price in this thread but, as I keep having to remind myself, price isn't the key factor here. PP bet builder offering ok odds for 1+ cards each if you prefer.

If this was a league game then you could make a case for this outcome being genuinely "no offers". Even in a cup game I can't see it not happening. Decent ref booking in Fabio Verissimo. He has been known to show less than 2 cards in a cup game but pretty much never in a league game (and this is at least on a par with the average Portuguese league game in terms of bookings expectation).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet 7: 10.77 points on Man C >0.5 corners in each half v Leicester at 1/40 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds")

Big odds (though not the biggest) for this thread! I just can't see City not gaining at least one flag kick in each half. Just realised I might have missed a trick here though, could've probably done >0.5 total in each half! :eyes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...