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Dodging Bullets Whilst Watching Paint Dry...


harry_rag

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17 minutes ago, aldric said:

Didnt take long..

Loads of corners in this game!

Yeah, a nervy 8 minute wait after the break! City on 12 (split 9 x 3) so far.

 

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 7: 10.77 points on Man C >0.5 corners in each half v Leicester at 1/40 with Hills (via "Build Your Odds")

11.04 points carried forward.

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Can't quite get my groove on with the QPR v Bournemouth game and no point in forcing it. If you twisted my arm, QPR >0.5 corners in both halves at 1/8 is probably value if you were more concerned with the price than the "certainty" of the bet winning. 1/66 for >1.5 home and >0.5 away corners will probably land as will <8.5 cards shown at 1/200 though that price stinks a bit. (Same ref showed 8 yellows when the teams met earlier in the season but "never" shows more than that!)

It's a no bet game for me.

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Bet 8: 11.04 points on 20+ booking points at 1/150 in Maritimo v Vizela with Sky Bet

A Portuguese game with a bookings expectation in the high 60s, what's not to like! Ref Hugo Silva has only handled 10 top flight games, showing 3, 3, 5. 5 and 2 cards last season and 4, 10, 8, 7 and 5 this season. A nice upward trend there, even allowing for the small sample size. In a mid-table clash where the away team are slight favourites it's hard to see him not dipping into his pockets on at least a couple of occasions.

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Bet 11: 11.4 points on 20+ booking points at 1/80 in AC Milan v Roma with Sky Bet

Ref Chiffi not the best for this bet (modest average for Serie A) but this fixture pushes the price up higher than his typical game. Hard to see there not being a couple of cards in a game between these two, though I'd have been happier with the sort of ref who would have seen the price be more like 1/200!

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On 1/12/2022 at 4:14 PM, harry_rag said:

Bet 14: 11.88 points on the same bet/market in the Mauritania v Gambia game at 1.01

Won, 12 points carried forward.

Bet 15: 12 points on >7.5 home corners in Liverpool v Arsenal at 1/50 with PP

Halftime, 6 so far, “no way” Liverpool don’t force at least 2 more when it’s goalless against 10 men.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Last bet won, there was another winning bet that I thought I'd posted but mustn't have submitted so I'm not counting that.

Bet 17: 12.36 points on >0.5 goals in Cameroon v Comoros at 1.03

The latter's Covid woes (having to play an outfield player in goal) should help this one over the line.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Last bet won.

Bet 19: 12.88 points on >0.5 home cards in Getafe v Levante at 1/80 with PP

Ref's first season and his 11 games so far average around 70 points. 20+ points is too short at 1/150 but should be at least one card for each team. Markets slightly favour the away team (e.g. in for 2 or 3 more points on the spreads and only 1/100 for >0.5) but, from a quick look at stats, I'm happy siding with the home team. Red card not a bad bet in this game if you can get close to 3/1 for it.

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Bet 22: 13.37 points on >0.5 goals in Tondela v Benfica at 1.04

I may regret this but I've decided to stick it in here rather than start another thread! (Was thinking about a thread for bets I like that aren't nicked off other people but aren't quite as nailed on as most I post in here).

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