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Dodging Bullets Whilst Watching Paint Dry...


harry_rag

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Bet 73: 10 points on 1 or more shots on target in Man C v Copenhagen at 1.01

(Matched for 9 so far, will confirm whether the rest gets matched before the off.) I'm no expert on this market but I'm pretty sure this isn't the match where you'd want to take 100/1 about both teams failing to register a single S.o.T.!

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10 hours ago, Skittle said:

That's some bet, which firm is doing that?

It’s on BF for certain games, perhaps just Champions League and the EPL at the moment, markets for 1 or more through to 20 or more. Doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of liquidity yet. Might be worth researching average shots on target to get a better understanding of what the prices should be. I believe 9 is fairly typical.

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Bet 75: 9 points on 1 or more shots on target in AC Milan v Chelsea at 1.01

Seems to be a bit of a theme of these bets getting taken just for the £9 though the first one was matched for the full £10 as was Everton v Man U which I didn't notice in time to post. I'm doing a bit of reading about shots stats but I think for most games that 1.01 is bigger than the true odds. (Apparently, when losing 3-0 to PSG in 2019, Real Madrid failed to register a shot on target for the first time in 587 games!)

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 75: 9 points on 1 or more shots on target in AC Milan v Chelsea at 1.01

Well that was the only one of today's 8 games I got matched on. I was also matched for a bit on 6+ SoT at 2.4 which seems ok as 365 have 9 or more as the coin toss line. A shade under £800 was matched in total for this game so there's not a huge amount of liquidity as yet.

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75 bets and bank stands at 23.77 points (from initial 10 point bank).

Given the current potential bets in the SoT market there's the possibility for a few more bets to be in play at any one time. With that in mind I'm going to top the bank up by 90 points (so it's a 100 point start bank rather than 10 point and, currently, 13.77 points profit). It's either that or more bets to smaller stakes. Doesn't really matter when the aim is consecutive bets but might as well stick with the target tenner stakes.

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I was also matched for a bit on 6+ SoT at 2.4 which seems ok as 365 have 9 or more as the coin toss line.

That bet lost, came up one short. I'd still say it was value at the price and probably scuppered by Milan's red card.

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