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FA Cup Predictions > May 14th

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  • 2 weeks later...

Chelsea vs Liverpool

The 2021/22 FA Cup Final is finally here and it will see Chelsea play Liverpool in a 4:45pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon from Wembley Stadium. Now, call me old-fashioned but what is wrong with a proper classic 3pm BST kick-off? The game's gone! Anyway, on to the more important matter at hand. Who will prevail victorious in this battle between two of the biggest clubs in European football right now?

Chelsea have experienced what can only be described as a rollercoaster of a season so far. The club have already lifted two trophies in the shape of the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup but they have also suffered defeat in the EFL Cup Final, fallen some way short of challenging for the Premier League title, and failed to defend their Champions League title. Oh, they have also lost Roman Abramovich as their owner. Can Thomas Tuchel's men give the Blues supporters something positive to end their season on by lifting a 9th FA Cup trophy and first since 2018? Chelsea have only failed to score in 1 of their last 17 matches across all competitions so the fire power is potent right now. The team have also kept clean sheets in their previous two FA Cup matches.

Liverpool know that the dream of an unprecedented quadruple is on the verge of dying after their disappointing 1-1 draw with Tottenham that appears to have left title rivals Manchester City on the brink of retaining the Premier League crown. Jurgen Klopp's side still have a chance to make history here by winning the club's first FA Cup trophy since 2006. We all remember that classic against West Ham don't we? The Reds still have a highly-anticipated clash with Real Madrid to come later this month in the Champions League Final so a very prestigious treble is still on target thanks to their EFL Cup win over Chelsea earlier in the year. Liverpool come into this game having scored in each of their previous 15 games across all competitions and have won 7 of their last 8 matches in all competitions.

I appreciate that once again the FA Cup is being contested between two clubs that aren't unfamiliar with trips to Wembley but the fact Chelsea have only won this competition once in the last 10 seasons and Liverpool haven't won it since 2006 means it's at least being fought between two clubs that aren't overly used to winning it. I have to say that with the last three meetings ended in draws over 90 minutes I wouldn't be surprised to see the same here. I think fatigue has started to hit with some players and I wouldn't be surprised if we go all the way in this one.

Draw @ 3.60 with Betfred

BTTS @ 1.80 with VBet

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Would you believe that, after tomorrow's result is known, the FA Cup will have been won by one of just 5 different teams in 24 out of the last 27 finals, those five being tomorrow's finalists plus Arsenal and the 2 Manchester clubs. The "big club" dominance is to be expected but the degree is perhaps surprising. 9 of the last 26 have seen both finalists come from those 5 teams and the average number of goals (90 minutes) in those games has just been 1.8. So it may be a game where we shouldn't expect too many goals or go overboard on the goalscorer betting. With that caveat in mind, here's some stats if you do fancy a goalscorer bet.

I've looked back over the games where each team have scored their last 25 goals to get a feel for who's hot and who's not. 

Chelsea have scored 26 goals in their last 13 games with one shut-out in that time, Liverpool have scored 25 in 11 with no blanks fired. These are the players to have scored 3 or more goals across those games.

  • Mount - 5 (in 4 games, i.e. he scored a brace in one game)
  • Lukaku and Werner - both 4 (in 3 games)
  • Pulisic - 3
  • Mane - 8 (in 7 games)
  • Diaz - 4 (in 3 games)
  • Konate - 3

Salah has scored just 2 goals (in 1 game) in that time and may make more appeal to get an assist at the respective prices though, of course, form is temporary etc.

No-one is on offer at a value price if I apply my anytime goalscorer system methodology although I only usually do that once the line-ups are known. At this stage I'd say 3/1 Lukaku and 23/10 Mane were the most appealing prices.

Worth commenting on Konate who is probably the least obvious player in the list; he scored in 3 consecutive games last month, all headers, against Benfica twice and Man City in the FA Cup semi. That doubled his career total, with other 3 coming when he played for RB Leipzig, making it 6 goals in 98 starts. 16/1 for him to score may be fair at best but 28/1 for him to score a header may overstate the chances that he scores any other sort of goal. For a reasonably priced interest in Liverpool's set pieces you could do worse.

5 points on Konate to score a header at 28/1 with Hills

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Chelsea vs Liverpool




Doubtful: Mateo Kovacic (25/2 m), N'Golo Kante (24/2 m)

Out (injuries/other): Callum Hudson-Odoi (15/1 f), Ben Chilwell (6/3 d)

Suspended: -



Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Fabinho (29/5 m)

Suspended: -


Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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On 5/13/2022 at 3:51 PM, harry_rag said:

Salah has scored just 2 goals (in 1 game) in that time and may make more appeal to get an assist at the respective prices though, of course, form is temporary etc.

One firm seems to have pushed him out to better than 2/1 and the exchange seems to have followed. Hopefully no-one knows anything I don't about his fitness (or him playing in defence) but I can't pass him up at 3.35. Also matched at 6.8 for him to get an assist which is quite a bit better than the best price I'd seen. A market I've been avoiding as a backer but that's tempted me in and it's a cup final so I'm willing to have a few "fun" bets.

Speaking of which; sell Mane minutes played at 86 with SPIN. He could well last the full 90 minutes but so little downside that I'm willing to take the chance. Average minutes played over his last 10 starts is 79 minutes.

Finally (pending a quick look round for anything standout), a small bet on Mount to have a shot on target at 2.4 on BF. Tipped by the RP at evens, I got partially matched at the odds I put up.

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