Teodore

Luton vs Rochdale
League One delivers the first preview tip this week with league leaders Luton welcoming relegation battlers Rochdale to Kenilworth Road for this 3pm kick-off this Saturday. The outcome seems like a foregone conclusion but is a home win as expected as we think it should be?
When Nathan Jones left Luton for Stoke back in early January many people, including myself, felt that the wheels could well come off their promotion train. In fact, it's quite the opposite. The club appear to have gone up to another level. Interim manager Mick Harford has overseen the club move up to the summit of the table with 6 wins and 2 draws from his 8 league games in charge. They are now 1st in the division and 5 points clear of 2nd placed Barnsley.
Keith Hill continues to keep Rochdale just above where you might ordinarily expect them to be. The club is languishing in 22nd place in the table and 2 points off safety. Three consecutive league defeats has put the fans into panic mode. A trip to the team at the top of the table won't help ease those concerns.
Yes, I'm aware Luton dropped points against Coventry in their last league game but we've said on here that Coventry are a team with the capabilities of doing that. I'm not very convinced that Rochdale are. Therefore I'm not only backing a Luton win to bounce back to winning ways but I can see them winning by 2-3 goals at least. It won't produce a win like my Portsmouth vs Barnsley tip last week but it's worth a crack!
Luton -1 @ 2.20 with Betfair
Luton HT/FT @ 2.20 with Blacktype
@Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, @Johnmccain, @Papa Lazarou, @VYA, @THEODORE-007, and @sajtion, what bets are you guys looking at this weekend here?
 

Serious? This is analys ?

Dundee v Hibs
I'm all over Hibs tonight, obvious improvements since getting rid of Neil Lennon, players look happy again.
Hibs win @ 1.80 is just enough for me.

Aberdeen are a far better team than St Mirrren and should really win this. No bet for me though at those odds. You can trust Hibs today though, as close to a certainty you can get.

@four-leaf this is so hard to put all 4 tips in one post ? 

@four-leaf this is so hard to put all 4 tips in one post ? 

Norrie has not played since the AO 1st round where he lost against Fritz 3-0.
Norrie record on clay: 7-7
On the other side, Cachin is a local player that has won the Qualification against Trungelliti and Quinzi in straight sets.
Cachin record on clay: 165-106
 
In resume, a clay-courter player already adapted on Cordoba's clay against a Hard surface player first clay match this year.
 
Cachin +1'5 sets at 1'58 with MarathonBet Stake 2'5/10

Bristol City vs Swansea
It might be a game where over 80 miles separate the two teams but Bristol City versus Swansea at Ashton Gate this Saturday afternoon at 3pm is as close to a local derby as it really gets for these clubs tonight. Both teams are in decent form but had relatively quiet January transfer windows. Who will prevail victorious?
Bristol City are blowing hot and cold all season. Lee Johnson's team managed to bring in Chelsea midfielder Kasey Palmer on loan earlier in the month but other than that it's been all quiet on the arrivals front. Funding for the stadium expansion is clearly still taking a huge chunk out of the transfer kitty. The Robins are 7th in the table and just 2 points outside the play-offs. An unbeaten run of 10 league matches including winning their last four league games consisting of three clean sheets has aided this rise up the table.
Swansea continue to deceive the analysts. On paper, Graham Potter's side should really be struggling. A flood of departures including Lukasz Fabianski, Roque Mesa, Ki Sung-yueng, Kyle Bartley, Alfie Mawson, Jordi Amat, Sam Clucas, Federico Fernandez, Andre Ayew, Jordan Ayew, Wilfried Bony, Tom Carroll, and Jefferson Montero has left Potter with a skeleton squad. Yet he is still managing to keep them competitive. The Swans are in 11th place and just 5 points off the play-offs on an unbeaten run of 5 league games.
This will be a brutal encounter for both sides. There is a lot to gain here if they show the willingness to win. A draw or loss for either team could see them drift even further away from the play-off picture. However, both managers will be keen to keep their impressive unbeaten runs in tact.
I just think the atmosphere around Swansea now is quite toxic. There's an obvious outrage at the management of the club at board level. Potter is doing a fantastic job but the rumoured departure of Daniel James to Leeds that never materialised will likely have caused further discontent. The opposite can be said at Bristol City. They are starting to gain real momentum and you get the impression they're starting to believe they can sneak up this season through the play-offs.
I think Bristol City will keep the momentum in this game. I am wary that the Robins are ranked 21st in the home table and Swansea are 8th in the away table. I just think when Johnson gets his teams going they're hard to stop. If Potter doesn't keep a lid on things then Swansea might be in danger of free falling. For the time being, he's keeping them afloat but for how much longer?
Bristol City to Win @ 2.38 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.87 with MarathonBet

. Not a great end, but it was a nicely profitable event otherwise.

Yeah, the odds for Nadal went up as a result of Djokovic crushing Pouille, but I don't believe that the reaction is adequate. I don't fancy Nadal as much as I was fancying him yesterday (when the bet was posted) anymore, but I still have him as a marginal favourite. If you're betting now, I'd still have a lean on Nadal at everything above evens. No bet on Osaka/Kvitova, so I'll be waiting only for Nadal and hope that he brings the bet in.

Disappointing that Telford couldn't get the win last week, but at the end of the day I am confident it was the right bet to have and it was just one of those results which defies logic and goes against us. If Blyth had scored an injury time penalty then we would have been in profit for the day as well despite the max bet losing. At the moment I am just putting the one bet up but there will be more to follow tomorrow at some point.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Aldershot
If Gary Waddock can keep Aldershot up I think it will be the biggest achievement of his managerial career because they are awful. It isn't all his fault because there have been budget cuts at the club, but you have to fear that if they go down to Step 2 they won't be coming back in a hurry. It has been 10 games since they last won in the league and they have picked up just 3 points in that spell. That last win also came against bottom of the table Braintree. Scoring goals is a huge problem for them as they have scored just 24 all season and if we narrow that down to the last 10 games then they have only scored 5, 3 of which came in the 4-3 loss to Maidenhead on Boxing Day. Away from home it is a really grim picture as they have won just once, drawn twice and lost 11. Dagenham didn't play well against Maidstone last week, but Maidstone basically gifted them all 3 goals thanks to some shocking defending. Given how much I have written about Dagenham of late there is no real point of repeating myself, but at the very least they should be no bigger than 4/6 for this and probably even shorter than that. I just can't understand how they are only very slightly odds on for this. Dagenham ought to only need 1 goal given how goal shy Aldershot and they look a cracking bet.
Dartford v Concord Rangers
Concord will be keen to get the 3 points they have lost for fielding an illegible player here, but I think the home side offer a bit of value. Dartford's home form has been very impressive as they have lost just twice. Wealdstone beat them early on in the season when they weren't in great form anyway and the only other team to beat them is Torquay and they played well that night despite losing. They have got themselves into play-off contention and it is mainly thanks to their performances at home. Concord's away form has picked up of late having drawn at Bath and won at East Thurrock and Welling before losing their last away game to Hungerford. Take the Welling win away though and the only teams they have beaten on their travels are Dulwich, East Thurrock and Weston all of whom are struggling. Dartford are nearly as big as 6/4 to win this with Marathon and that represents value to me.
Dulwich Hamlet v Chelmsford City
I'm hoping to get to this game on Saturday and it will be my first visit to Champion Hill since Dulwich returned their last month. Usually I want them to win, but given Gloucester are in a relegation battle with them I'm not sure I really do (although I do hope both survive) and I think Chelmsford are worth backing to win. I have only seen Dulwich in the flesh twice this season both when they played Gloucester. Back in August Gloucester beat them 1-0, but I was really impressed with Dulwich and thought there is noway they would struggle this season. Then just before Christmas they looked a completely different side and not a very good one at that. It is hard to know what has gone wrong really, but I suspect that the team had got used to winning games of football and now they aren't they are finding it very tricky to play their usual passing style of football because they don't have the confidence to do so. I thought returning to Champion Hill would see a big improvement in form, but after winning on Boxing Day in their first game back they have picked up just 1 point in their next 5 games and that game in a desperate affair at East Thurrock last Saturday. Having seen East Thurrock earlier this month I can imagine how bad a game it was. Chelmsford are much better than East Thurrock and although their good away form from earlier in the season has left them I would say out of the 4 defeats in their last 6 on the road the only poor loss was to East Thurrock. I'm surprised to see Chelmsford on the drift as Dulwich look really low on confidence at the moment and at just over 6/4 with Marathon the away side look a solid bet.
Southport v AFC Telford
No doubt Telford will go and win now I am taking them on, but Southport are worth a bet despite losing their unbeaten record at Altrincham last week. They certainly played well and I can seem bouncing straight back here. Telford might be very strong at home, but it has been a very different story on their travels. They have only won 3 away games and two of those came against FCUM and Nuneaton and both of those are in the bottom 3. Following Southport has been pretty profitable for us in recent weeks and I am surprised they have drifted out to 121/100 with Marathon as I would have them nearer even money myself.
Whitehawk v Carshalton
Those of you who have been following me for a while may remember that a year or so again backing Whitehawk became a rather profitable system despite the fact they were bottom of the table and still ended up going down and I just wonder if they are about to go on another good run of form. They have improved the side this month and their last two results have been superb. First of all they got a draw against Dorking who are 2nd in the table and then last week they were really impressive in beating Kingstonian last week. If they can repeat those two efforts then they should be more than capable of beating a Carshalton side who have only won 2 of their last 8 league games and have lost 5 on the bounce away from home. Every chance they will have one eye on their FA Trophy match at Barnet next week as well. At 19/10 with BetVictor they are well worth backing.
Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 49/50 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2pts @ 38/25 with Marathon
Southport 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon
Whitehawk 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor
 
Not surprisingly the price has come in on Dagenham although I still think the price is on the right side of value.

Guys, 
Aberdeen 2, Hearts 1 and St. Johnstone 1x ? Can we trust them ?

As you wroten "few years ago", now i think its not so good. You are right also with odds ...but for double.

There is no topic for this weeks challenger so i will use that one.
Challenger Koblenz
Michal Przysiezny @ 1.854 Pinnacle 5/10
Przysiezny only played 8 matches in 2018, last one in April but he had a very good pre season and is in really good shape and i expect him to play a good tournament here in Koblenz where he had some success in 2017 winning four matches in a row. Przysiezny also worked as a training partner for Caroline Wozniacki in the second half of 2018 and also trained with her as a prep for the new season so he wasn't far away from the sports although he didn't play officially. I expect a strong performance here as he said his goal is to come back Top 200 soon and if he is fit he definitely has the tools to do so. His opponent Barranco is a clay only player, he NEVER played on indoor hardcourt before, one tournament on indoor carpet in Italy last year where he was defeated by Neuchrist in two clear sets. I do not expect him to some damage here to be honest. 
Benjamin Hassan @ 2.23 Pinnacle 5/10
This is Benjamin Hassans home tournament. He played great tennis here in the past winning sets vs. Gabashvili and De Schepper and beating Gulbis with a great performance. Hassan is underrated but he needs to play like this the whole year, he usually shows his best tennis at home and i do expect great tennis here. Serdarusic isn't something special on the other side, can't say i am convinced he makes it back to the Top 200 soon, he lacks consistency and i watched his match vs. Griekspoor last week and i am pretty sure if he plays like that he will lose this.

Offtopic: i dont what is "walton casuals", who are they etc but i will start to support them  they play on Fred Perry or Stone Island tshirts ? 
 
 
:)))))
 
Edit: checked, Nike. So rather more like russian mafia than casuals 

Offtopic: i dont what is "walton casuals", who are they etc but i will start to support them  they play on Fred Perry or Stone Island tshirts ? 
 
 
:)))))
 
Edit: checked, Nike. So rather more like russian mafia than casuals 

Noah Rubin to beat Akira Santillan at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Rubin was quite convincing in his first tournament of the season, while Santillan lost against Safwat, a guy that I don't rate highly at all. On top of that, Rubin has many good memories of the AO and the surface was working well for him in the past, so I reckon that he should be winning this more often than not. Santillan dropped in 2018 imo, while Rubin bounced back - and that should show here.

You mean versus Dundee?
Aberdeen should beat Dundee but the odds are too short. Dundee are a tougher team now with the new manager though, it's not a game I would touch.

Don’t think I’ve ever had them all draw before and at least I tipped up the draw in one of the games. If those 3 had held on we would be looking at a profit instead of a loss. Not a good end to the month but hopefully Saturday will be better.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Kevin Anderson at 2.74 with Pinnacle
Anderson has already qualified for the ATP Finals and might want some rest despite the week break, as he's played some matches in Vienna and doesn't really have all that much to play for here. The fact that he's now qualified might also dawn on him a bit and he might not be focused enough. On top of that, Basilashvili pushed him close last week and should have enough motivation, so I like the odds. It looks more or less like a 50/50 match to me.

Yep, I'm glad that the tennis forums are up and running in 2018 again as well, a great year...and 2019 might be even better!
Kamil Majchrzak to beat Stefan Kozlov at 1.46 with Pinnacle
The odds aren't great for this one, but some slim value nonetheless imo. Kozlov has been largely non-existent for a long time now, his last match against Choinski was a true disaster, while Majchrzak has been rising steadily, even making a Challenger final recently.

Melzer wins 76(6) 75 

Great job Darran!

It is FA Cup weekend and yet again the bookies have been slow to price those matches up. Bet365 and BetVictor have so I will wait to see if we get any more prices before putting anything up. As it stands I have 4 bets in the National League for Saturday.
Aldershot v Halifax
On the face of it the home side probably look on the short side at 5/4 to win this, but I think they look a fair price to do just that. Gary Waddock hasn't minced his words at times this season, but not surprisingly he has been a bit more upbeat of late and he certainly was after Aldershot had got their first away point of the season at Hartlepool last Saturday. It was a good performance from them and Waddock was right to highlight the fact that the new squad are starting to improve and get things together. As I mentioned in the Maidstone preview last week Aldershot battered Maidstone but still lost in their last home game, but that was actually only their 2nd defeat at home this season and they have won 4 of their 6 home games. That is key for me that despite their poor start to the season that has been pretty much down to their away form rather than their pretty solid home form. Halifax have had some tough away games and draws at Sutton and Wrexham are good efforts, although that Sutton match was a dire game in general. Their only win on their travels remains the opening day win at bottom of the table Braintree and given they only managed 2 shots on target against Bromley they were slightly fortunate to get a point last weekend. I think this game is tougher and with Aldershot solid at home and performances improving I think they can continue their rise up the table here.
Chesterfield v AFC Fylde
The price on Fylde has come in from the silly opening quotes from the bookies which had them as the outsiders for this. The plus is they are unbeaten on the road, but the negative is that they have drawn 6 of their 7 away matches. Strangely given how strong they are going forward at home they can't score on their travels. They have only scored 5 times and 3 of those came in one game at Ebbsfleet. Surely in this game Dave Challinor has to make sure his side are a bit more attacking minded given Chesterfield are making some really poor defensive errors of late. I read a preview last weekend which suggested Chesterfield have defended OK of late, which is just bizarre because as I pointed out last weekend they have certainly not defended OK in recent matches. It has been a comedy of errors really and although they only conceded once against Maidstone it was a bad one to concede. Surely the likes of Danny Rowe are going to be gifted a few chances against a Chesterfield side who don't really look like winning anytime soon. 6/4 is still available with Skybet and Sportingbet and it is still a high enough price for me to want to play.
Dover v Salford
Another team who have shortened up are Salford which again isn't a surprise. Football can make fools of you sometimes, but I just don't see how Dover can get anything out of this game. They have looked a really poor side in most of their games this season and they were especially bad against Barrow last weekend. Maybe the players will raise themselves for this one, but even so they just don't look good enough and manager Chris Kinnear pretty much hinted at that after the game. Salford on the other-hand are threatening to run away with the league and some of the football they have been playing is some of the best I have seen in this division for a few years. They have just got stronger as the season has gone on and they comfortably beat Maidenhead 3-0 last weekend in what could have been a tricky game for them. As long as they don't drop their standards and get complacent they could really batter Dover this weekend. I think at the very least they should cover the -1 handicap and that is a big price at 12/5 (Betfair/Paddy Power) and looks the best bet in the division this weekend.
Ebbsfleet v Harrogate
There was a much improved performance from Ebbsfleet last Saturday, but it did come against Dagenham so how much do we read into it? I do think the signing of Reise Allassani who is a player I know well having been at Dulwich last season is a very good one and he was man of the match in the Dagenham game. The big problem for them though has been their home form and given they play a Harrogate side who aren't really showing any signs of slowing down after their flying start to the season I am happy to take Ebbsfleet on. Harrogate were the first team to defeat Boreham Wood at home last weekend and Wood are always hard to beat at home so that is no mean feat. Skybet and BetVictor are 2/1 about an away win and that is too big for me.
Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet
Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power
Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor

St Mirren v Hibernian, Edinburgh City v Cowdenbeath.
It's a little bit lazy of me I know but I'm going to stick with the 2 teams that have made me a few quid the last couple of weeks, I see no reason at all why they can't both win for the 3rd week in a row. The bookies have the odds for the single wins just about right I think but I'm very confident of the double, I think it could be a very comfortable afternoon for both sides.
Hibs and Edinburgh City double @ 2.56. 
Hibs -1 and Edinburgh City -1 double @ 6.53.
Kilmarnock v Motherwell.
Kilmarnock are overpriced here, they're a side that plays football the right way, always looking to go forward and score goals. They should have too much for Motherwell here, the awful artificial pitch gives them a clear edge over the visitors.
Kilmarnock @ 2.10 is a value bet.