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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 4 - February 10

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Tsonga to win the ATP Montpellier at 10.00 with 888

I will not watch the tournament so my only personal prediction here will be the final winner. From all the players that compete here Tsonga is the player who was playing better, he did not have a long run in the AO because he had to face Djokovic in his second match there after beating Klizan 3-0. He lost against Nole (6-3, 7-5, 6-4) but he was the player who put in more troubles to Nole, more than Nadal did in the Final. Tsonga was playing so well (he did semifinal in Brisbane) and his serve was working very well (this tournament is played in hard indoor courts so benefits big serving players). The 3 favorite players to win here are Berdych (5.00), Pouille (6.00) and Goffin (6.50). Goffin is in the other part of the draw but he’s far from his best form and I can’t see him playing his best tennis here now. Pouille is the defending champion and he will be with a lot of confidence after the AO but I personally see Tsonga better than him (if they face each other that will be in the Semifinals). The last year Tsonga did semifinal here but he retired for an injury after he won against Pouille the first set 6-1 (I almost sure the Tsonga would have won that match if he had not been injured). Berdych is a real threat, for sure, but he’s in the other part of the draw so if they face each other that will be in the Final. I think that the more dangerous players are in the other part of the draw (Berdych, Goffin, Karlovic, Shapo,…). The way of Tsonga till the Final will be: Humbert, Simon, Darcis/M.Zverev/Chardy and Pouille/Vesely/Gulbis/Hurkacz/Albot/Kohls.

Like I said i will not watch any match this week so I only will post this one, a pre-tournament bet. I will just follow your predictions. Good luck. I EDIT because at 888 is paid at 10.00

Edited by darko08

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Does anybody have information about Wawrinka's motivation in Sofia ATP 250?

He will play again Marius Copil (#56) and 1.5 for Wawrinka looks really good. Copil does not look to be in good shape 1 games won out of 4 in 2019. Wawrinka played against better opponents in 2019 (Kachanov, Bautista Agut, Raonic..) and won 3 games out of 5.

I found some infos that Wawrinka is not going to participate at Davis Cup because he wants to focus on his ranking rise. He also mentioned at the press conference that he is in good shape now, comparing with 2018 at the same tournament.

I think that Stan is a generally much better player and has more weapons than Marius Copil (whose the only weapon seems to be his 1st serve). The only thing I'm afraid of is his motivation to move on in an ATP 250 level competition.

Anyway, 

ATP 250 Sofia (Bulgaria)

Marius Copil - Stan Wawrinka

Stan Wawrinka to win at 1.50 (Betano)

Edited by vvararu

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Well, he should be motivated given that he doesn't really have all that many ranking points in his wallet at the moment. The only bet that I'm taking tomorrow is Tsonga to beat Humbert at 1.33 with William Hill. There's not much to be said and the value is slim, but Humbert doesn't seem to be mature enough to get such a big win at this point. Tsonga should be motivated and he's been playing surprisingly well so far in 2019. If you want to follow though, try to follow with a bookie that voids retirements, you never know with Tsonga.

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I think the odds are right. The last year here he did Final and he also did Final in Basel beating there the two Zverev brothers, Lajovic, Harrison, Cilic and Fritz so when Copil plays on indoor hard courts is very dangerous because he has a big serve like you said. Wawrinka is the favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised if Copil beats him.

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Karlovic + Tsonga at 1.89 with SportingBet

"Dr. Ivo" has impressed me in the early part of the season, having made the final of ATP Pune (and then only losing in 3 tight sets to Anderson) and going out in 5 sets to Nishikori in the Australian Open. Obviously the court surface favours Karlovic here, and he has a 3-1 H2H record against his opponent. @CzechPunter has already covered the play on Tsonga, so I won't repeat it here.

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Alessandro Giannessi to beat Thiago Seyboth Wild at 1.57 with Paddy Power

Is this a trap or what? Giannessi had to qualify for this event and he beat some good players while doing so, while Seyboth Wild has been out-of-form for a while now and he's yet to break the top 400. Count me in and let's hope this isn't going to be one of those mysterious losses in which the favorite gets beaten easily :loon.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Alessandro Giannessi to beat Thiago Seyboth Wild at 1.57 with Paddy Power

Is this a trap or what? Giannessi had to qualify for this event and he beat some good players while doing so, while Seyboth Wild has been out-of-form for a while now and he's yet to break the top 400. Count me in and let's hope this isn't going to be one of those mysterious losses in which the favorite gets beaten easily :loon.

:hope it's not another Chela v Schwank

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7 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

For me Norrie is a bit high (@1,78), but I don't know much about his opponent.

Any thoughts?

 

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, Norrie could very well be worth a bet there, depends on how he feels on the Cordoba clay, which might be rather specific. He's better than Cachin though, that's for sure.

 

Norrie has not played since the AO 1st round where he lost against Fritz 3-0.

Norrie record on clay: 7-7

On the other side, Cachin is a local player that has won the Qualification against Trungelliti and Quinzi in straight sets.

Cachin record on clay: 165-106

 

In resume, a clay-courter player already adapted on Cordoba's clay against a Hard surface player first clay match this year.

 

Cachin +1'5 sets at 1'58 with MarathonBet Stake 2'5/10

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Dimitar Kuzmanov to beat Robin Haase at 7.00 with 888

I want to try this one. Haase played recently 3 matches for his country in the Davis Cup. He played against Rosol 4 days before (6-2, 6-4), Lehecka 3 days before (6-4, 2-6, 6-3) and the doubles match in the same day against Rosol/Vesely (7-6, 3-6, 7-6). 3 matches played (1/2 February). The last year Haase lost here in the first round against Copil (6-7, 4-6). He plays against a local player (R: 336) that is so far away from the level of Haase but I like the odds considering the situation explained. Sorry guys a made an error, the 3 matches played were on hard indoor not clay. Anyway the main reasons are that Haase can be tired after playing 3 matches recently and that he lost in the first match the last yeat here.

Edited by darko08

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Struff + Monfils to win (Sofia) @ 1.866 bet365

The odds are not great on the singles especially considering the matchups but it still looks like both Struff and Monfils should come ahead.

Not much to say...

====

Monfils vs Troicki

Monfils looked a bit tired/injured against Fritz at AO but on sheer talent and h2h he should win if no massive injury.

Troicki is still capable of some good performances (eg he beat a few good players indoor last year) but having watched him drop a set to King at AO I don't think he has enough to win vs Gael

====

Struff vs Travaglia

Struff is pretty good indoor and has started the season relatively well. (not sure how fast the court is there)

Travaglia doesn't look too good indoor and still looks behind Struff in terms of quality

 

==

any thoughts on Basic vs Klizan?

Basic looked terrible at AO

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17 hours ago, MAGA_Trump said:

Cachin +1'5 sets at 1'58 with >MarathonBet Stake 2'5/10

Victory in straight sets for Cachin.

 

Today in Cordoba - Argentina I just like Giannessi against Seyboth Wild. The reasons more or less like yesterday in Norrie - Cachin game:

Seyboth Wild has played not so many matches on clay and he has never won a match in ATP category on clay.

Seyboth Wild record on clay: 11-13

On the other side, Giannessi is an italian player that has won the Qualification against a local in straight sets and his fellow Lorenzi 2-1.

Giannessi record on clay: 178-153

 

In resume, a clay-courter player already adapted on Cordoba's clay against a low ATP ranking player non used to play on clay.

 

Giannessi to win at 1'57 with Betfair Stake 2'5/10

Giannessi 2-0 at 2'35 with Unibet 0'75/10

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1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Struff + Monfils to win (Sofia) @ 1.866 bet365

The odds are not great on the singles especially considering the matchups but it still looks like both Struff and Monfils should come ahead.

Not much to say...

====

Monfils vs Troicki

Monfils looked a bit tired/injured against Fritz at AO but on sheer talent and h2h he should win if no massive injury.

Troicki is still capable of some good performances (eg he beat a few good players indoor last year) but having watched him drop a set to King at AO I don't think he has enough to win vs Gael

====

Struff vs Travaglia

Struff is pretty good indoor and has started the season relatively well. (not sure how fast the court is there)

Travaglia doesn't look too good indoor and still looks behind Struff in terms of quality

 

==

any thoughts on Basic vs Klizan?

Basic looked terrible at AO

Quite dangerous Basic vs Klizan for tomorrow the 6th. Isn't it?

Basic:

- The 1st of February playing Davis Cup in Australia. 1 day on plane plus the jet lag.

- No change of surface. Davis Cup was Hard Outdoor and this is Indoor

- Horrible performance against De Minaur in Davis Cup 6-3 7-6(0) and lost in 1st round in AO

- Basic is defending 250 points due to last year victory in this tournament

 

Klizan:

- Played the weekend on clay Davis Cup in Slovakia (not far away). So, he's changing the surface.

- Lost easy against Tsonga the 1st Round in AO

 

If I had to bet, I'll be with Basic to win a set @ 1'69 at Pinnacle

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Marcos Baghdatis to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.48 with Pinnacle

Zsombor Piros to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.62 with William Hill

On the men's side of things, Czech tennis is currently going through a serious crisis, with only Berdych delivering - and who knows for how long. Of course, that doesn't mean that both Vesely and Kolar are going to lose, but I'm going to chance their defeats nonetheless. Vesely got injured in the Davis Cup and the doctors were saying that things are going to be at least uncomfortable for a while, so I'm not sure what he's even doing in Montpellier. He might not play, but, if he does, he's going to struggle imo. meanwhile, Piros is rising through the ranks and has way more talent than Kolar, so I'll be on him at an even better price as well.

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Robin Haase/Dimitar Kuzmanov over 2.5 sets at 3.10 with Unibet

I think it's likely to see a three set match in this one because I don't see Robin as an outstanding indoor hardcourt player and he's the fav to win this easily but it seldom goes that easily when Robin plays and he played some matches over the weekend and didn't look convincing enough for me to able to think he can win this in straight sets. He dropped a set to youngster Jiri Lehecka on Saturday and beat Lukas Rosol in two on friday. It's defenitely possible that he can play a three set match here so I think I'll go for the overbet here.

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Pablo Cuevas to beat (-1.5) Facundo Bagnis at 1.71 with Unibet

I like how Pablo have started this season and I think he's good to go here although he hasn't played any matches on clay yet this season. This is a perfect matchup for him to start with because these two have met five times and Pablo have covered the handicap in all of the five times they've met. Pablo is a almost falling out of top 100 nowadays but in this match I think it's possible he'll outplay his opponent like he's done before. Facundo isn't at his best nowadays either. Anyways it feels like going with Pablo to cover the games handicap is the right way to go.

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I think it's a big mistake to bet on the well ranked players in such ATP 250 competitions. I think they just come to play the first game, to get a couple of $$$ (travel for free and visit the city) and a small amount of points. Basilashvili, Wawrinka... awful. Either it's a motivation issue or they gain more from fixing the games that from actually playing and winning.

I think I have more chances to guess a combination of 3 soccer draws than a ATP 250 game :(

I'd go with them in at least ATP 500 and up...

Edited by vvararu

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