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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 14 - February 3

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There is no topic for this weeks challenger so i will use that one.

Challenger Koblenz

Michal Przysiezny @ 1.854 Pinnacle 5/10

Przysiezny only played 8 matches in 2018, last one in April but he had a very good pre season and is in really good shape and i expect him to play a good tournament here in Koblenz where he had some success in 2017 winning four matches in a row. Przysiezny also worked as a training partner for Caroline Wozniacki in the second half of 2018 and also trained with her as a prep for the new season so he wasn't far away from the sports although he didn't play officially. I expect a strong performance here as he said his goal is to come back Top 200 soon and if he is fit he definitely has the tools to do so. His opponent Barranco is a clay only player, he NEVER played on indoor hardcourt before, one tournament on indoor carpet in Italy last year where he was defeated by Neuchrist in two clear sets. I do not expect him to some damage here to be honest. 

Benjamin Hassan @ 2.23 Pinnacle 5/10

This is Benjamin Hassans home tournament. He played great tennis here in the past winning sets vs. Gabashvili and De Schepper and beating Gulbis with a great performance. Hassan is underrated but he needs to play like this the whole year, he usually shows his best tennis at home and i do expect great tennis here. Serdarusic isn't something special on the other side, can't say i am convinced he makes it back to the Top 200 soon, he lacks consistency and i watched his match vs. Griekspoor last week and i am pretty sure if he plays like that he will lose this.

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3 minutes ago, aussietennisexpert said:

I was looking at the michal match last night.

he was down a set and paying around 8 to win. Wish I had a stream to check how he was playing would’ve been a huge win haha.

Yeah, he looked decent even in the first set but made some typical errors after being out for such a long time. I put some money on him while he was a set and a break down, nice win to start a week. He played very good in the third set. 

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On 2019-01-14 at 12:28 AM, opole said:

There is no topic for this weeks challenger so i will use that one.

Challenger Koblenz

Michal Przysiezny @ 1.854 Pinnacle 5/10

Przysiezny only played 8 matches in 2018, last one in April but he had a very good pre season and is in really good shape and i expect him to play a good tournament here in Koblenz where he had some success in 2017 winning four matches in a row. Przysiezny also worked as a training partner for Caroline Wozniacki in the second half of 2018 and also trained with her as a prep for the new season so he wasn't far away from the sports although he didn't play officially. I expect a strong performance here as he said his goal is to come back Top 200 soon and if he is fit he definitely has the tools to do so. His opponent Barranco is a clay only player, he NEVER played on indoor hardcourt before, one tournament on indoor carpet in Italy last year where he was defeated by Neuchrist in two clear sets. I do not expect him to some damage here to be honest. 

Benjamin Hassan @ 2.23 Pinnacle 5/10

This is Benjamin Hassans home tournament. He played great tennis here in the past winning sets vs. Gabashvili and De Schepper and beating Gulbis with a great performance. Hassan is underrated but he needs to play like this the whole year, he usually shows his best tennis at home and i do expect great tennis here. Serdarusic isn't something special on the other side, can't say i am convinced he makes it back to the Top 200 soon, he lacks consistency and i watched his match vs. Griekspoor last week and i am pretty sure if he plays like that he will lose this.

Easiest money so far on tennis this week. Ben Hassan totally awesome and fully deserving his straight sets win 6-4 6-2 and Michal wasn't to bad either.

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Mikael Ymer to beat (-4.5) Zsombor Piros at 2.01 with Betsson

Looks like Mike is finally coming strong. He was impressive when he won in Noumea and I expect some more great stuff from him in Koblenz. I really don't mind indoor hard isn't his favourite surface. It's clay but he can play equally well on hard, indoor hard, grass and clay. He hasn't played mutch on grass though but reached the Wimbledon final as a junior losing to Reilly Opelka. But this match versus Zsombor should be all about Mike and I think he's worth taking on the handicap.

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Challenger Koblenz

Begemann/Junaid + Melzer/Polasek @ 2.31 Sportingbet 3/10

Solid parlay. Like them both, took Melzer/Polasek yesterday at even odds and they played really well, they're looking like a doubles team that can do damage even at higher level imo. Begemann/Junaid should be too solid and motivated for Kolar and Pavlasek.

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1 hour ago, eros said:

Mate, any idea on the single matches today?

I like Ortega-Olmedo to beat Maden. 

Roberto Ortega-Olmedo @ 3.91 Pinnacle 4/10

Spaniard has a couple of decent results on hardcourt / indoor hardcourt and he gave Maden a good fight two years ago on Madens best surface clay so i do not see why Ortega should not able to beat him indoor as the Spaniard likes to play on fast surfaces. Maden also is coming back from an injury, he had no real off season with a training camp or something. His first round opponent was a bum.

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M15 Naples, Fl.

Nicolas Alvarez @ 2.51 Sbobet 3/10

Looks like a 50/50 match to me. Alvarez is a very talented guy, as a junior he beat guys like Moutet or Fritz and he decided to go for a college career but he finished it before his senior year as he turned full pro last year. 

https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/08/nico-alvarez-to-forgo-final-year-of-eligibility-for-duke-mens-tennis

He beat Sakamoto on clay before, a couple of months ago in Sakamotos home country Brazil so i don't know why he should not be able to beat him again.

Sakamoto is decent but in terms of talent i do rate Alvarez higher. If he brings his A-game i think he should win this.

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Victor Estrella to beat Collin Altamirano at 1.79 with Pinnacle

This looks like a must play to me, Estrella was brilliant against Kwiatkowski and he was apparently working hard in the off-season, while Altamirano is yet to hit the courts this year and was in a really bad form at the end of 2018. He might be quite good in the future, but, as things stand right now, I wouldn't have the veteran above 1.53.

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Elias Ymer to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2.20 with Unibet

Bit of a risky bet but I think there's value on Elias here. Elias is apparently in good form on hardcourts having won two straight challenger hardcourt tournaments and he is bidding for a place in the top 100 this season. He is pushing for it and Ricardas I think has reached his highest level already when he was ranked 50 three years ago. Ricardas is a good indoor hardcourt player but so is Elias acctually and I think Ricardas will not be able to dig deep enough for those extended rallies in this match which will come since Elias return game is quite fine right now. Ricardas often tries to shorten the points when he plays but in this match he could fail to do so and then his game becomes more vulnerable. Elias is playing well from the baseline and from there he doesn't make many UEs either so he's looking good and is confident that he can reach top 100 soon.

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Elias is doing the opposite of making few UEs.. Ricardas is playing mutch better and is right now cruising for the straight sets win.

Edit: it was probably just wishful thinking by me that Elias would be able to beat Ricardas.

Edited by four-leaf

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Maria Sharapova to beat Daria Gavrilova 2-0 at 1.83 with Bet365

I'm not a big fan of set betting in women's tennis, but this looks like a good price to me given how poor Gavrilova has been so far in this season in home conditions. She'll have some pressure off now that she's elsewhere, but Sharapova is a quality opponent and I don't see her being lackadaisical kicking off a home event.

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Dayana Yastremska to beat (-1.5 sets) Arantxa Rus at 1.82 with Unibet

Dayana shouldn't have any problems taking out Arantxa in straight sets. I don't see any obstacles for this favourite not to win this in two since she is the far better player. Arantxa seems to have gone on a bad streak to not winning as mutch as she'd wanted last few months and Dayana is clearly a player on the rise since last season.

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Hsieh Su-Wei -2.5 games to beat Monica Niculescu 1.80 Bet365

One of the more in form Asian players in the game right now, and quite underrated. Niculescu's style should not trouble Hsieh, who has enough variety (unorthodox) and intelligence around the court in her game to counteract the typical Niculescu style (slowing the points down, slices here and there). The players who are usually troubled by Niculescu are the players who don't have the variety in their game and base their game around all out attack, power, or limited in their repertoire.

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33 minutes ago, KennyDelight said:

Hsieh Su-Wei -2.5 games to beat Monica Niculescu 1.80 Bet365

One of the more in form Asian players in the game right now, and quite underrated. Niculescu's style should not trouble Hsieh, who has enough variety (unorthodox) and intelligence around the court in her game to counteract the typical Niculescu style (slowing the points down, slices here and there). The players who are usually troubled by Niculescu are the players who don't have the variety in their game and base their game around all out attack, power, or limited in their repertoire.

Monica Niculescu is the opposite of not having variety in her game. Her game is more or less based on her awkward style and variety. You can forget Monica to be a player who plays with power or is limited in her repertoire.

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@four-leaf I don't think that KennyDelight was implying that Niculescu is such a player, at least from what I can read.

Victor Estrella to beat Liam Broady at 2.25 with William Hill

I'm giving Estrella one more chance after that big disappointment from last week. He wasn't all that poor, he just missed a couple of BPs, gave away his first one and fell apart. Broady isn't as good or talented as Altamirano though, no interesting recent results, and the only thing that can give him some hope here is his serve. Things are probably not going to be easy, but I'd have the odds the other way around here.

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I was thinking to bet Yastremska to win this tournament at 13.00. Yastremska has played and won against most of the favourites to win this tournament: Muguruza, Shuai Zhang, Tomljanovic and Saisai Zheng. The only of the 5 favorite players to win that has not played against Dayana is Caroline Garcia (6.00) but she’s so far from her best form. If Dayana and Muguruza win their first two round they will meet each other in quarterfinals (I think that the winner of that match will win the tournament). Finally I didn’t the bet, let’s see if I regret this.

Edited by darko08

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

@four-leaf I don't think that KennyDelight was implying that Niculescu is such a player, at least from what I can read.

Victor Estrella to beat Liam Broady at 2.25 with William Hill

I'm giving Estrella one more chance after that big disappointment from last week. He wasn't all that poor, he just missed a couple of BPs, gave away his first one and fell apart. Broady isn't as good or talented as Altamirano though, no interesting recent results, and the only thing that can give him some hope here is his serve. Things are probably not going to be easy, but I'd have the odds the other way around here.

You trust a guy who played only one indoor match for about 5 years with the claycourt season coming in a few days where he can probably play the qualification in Cordoba at the weekend?! and you say he should be the FAVORITE in that matchup??? No way Estrella is the fav here...

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Anyone has watched recently some match from Lisicki? I remember that she had one of the best serves I ever seen in the WTA. I know that she is absolutely far away from the player she was but I would like to know if she conserves her serve at least. I can’t remember the last time I watched her.

Edited by darko08

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Well, apparently I do, because I don't think that he would have the desire to go to Cleveland to throw his first match away and go for more travels, I don't think that he's getting an appearance fee :loon. He can crash and burn, everyone can, that's part of the risk, but I'm getting well above evens against a guy that won three games against Van De Zandschulp last time out and that ended 2018 by losing to complete no-names in India, so I'll go for that. Feel free to post your tip on Broady at 1.80.

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Sabine Lisicki (+5.5 Games) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.93 with 888

Well, I have no response but I finally decided to put my confidence in Lisicki to cover this line (at first was priced around 1.70 but now is at 1.93 and I like it). Muguruza is not in her best but she recovered some form in Australia winning against Saisai Zheng (6-2, 6-3), Konta (6-4, 6-7, 7-5) and Bacsinszky (7-6, 6-2). She finally lost against Pliskova (6-3, 6-1). If you check the last results of Muguruza you will see that she suffers against big hitting players like her (Pliskova, Wang, Yastremska, Sabalenka and Siniakova are the last players who won against her, all of them big hitters). Lisicki is far away from the player she was when she won 4 WTA titles and did Final in Wimbledon but I expect some resistence from her here. Her last results are awful except for the Final she did in Taipei in November. Basically, what I expect from this match is that Lisicki will show us some of her good serves and powerful shots to give some fight.

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41 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, apparently I do, because I don't think that he would have the desire to go to Cleveland to throw his first match away and go for more travels, I don't think that he's getting an appearance fee :loon. He can crash and burn, everyone can, that's part of the risk, but I'm getting well above evens against a guy that won three games against Van De Zandschulp last time out and that ended 2018 by losing to complete no-names in India, so I'll go for that. Feel free to post your tip on Broady at 1.80.

1. He had to plan his tournaments months ago and he would get sanctioned if he would pull out late without an injury so yeah, he had to go to Cleveland, no matter if he wants or not or has other plans for the weekend.

2. I watched the match vs Zandschulp last week as it was a tournament in the region i live in Germany and obviously he was tanking because he knew he has to travel to the US for the next few tournaments. As Estrella broady had to plan his year early a couple of months ago and if you pull out of a tournament you have to bring a proof that you are injured or having private reasons not to play, otherwise you would get a fine. He had no intention to win there.

3. What has A to do with B? I said Estrella has absolutely NO VALUE for me and Broady is the favorite but i didn't say Broady has any value at 1.6-75 right now. Only because one bet has no value it obviously doesn't mean the other bet makes sense or has any kind of value. In my opinion odds are perfectly fine here and Estrella is the underdog but obviously Broady is struggling a bit recently so odds are a bit shorter than they should be if Broady has a good streak or shape. 

Touching Estrella indoors must be a perfect matchup and a perfect situation and big odds. 2.25 is too short to back a guy who might have other plans at the weekend plus almost no experience on fast indoor courts in the last 5 years. This makes no sense obviously. I wish you good luck as i do not have bet placed here so i hope you'll win your bet.

Edited by opole

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Broady might've been tanking, I don't know about that, thanks for the info, but you could you please tell me how you came to the conclusion that he could be playing in Cordoba? There might be some main draw wild cards left, but it's not his home country and his ranking is rather low, so I don't think that he's getting that. As for qualifying, the latest entry list that I was able to find doesn't have him among the alternates, with both WCs taken. I'm just asking if you perhaps have better sources than myself.

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5pts C.Garcia (-3.5 games) to beat J.Brady Evens Coral
Brady, Ranked 115th Vs Garcia, ranked 19th. Not sure why Garcia has odds of evens on her to win (with -3.5 handicap). Brady hasn't even had much of a start to the season. She's gone out of Brisbane in Qualifcation, out of the Australian Open to Maia and despite winning her qualification matches easy here, she hasn't beaten anybody remotely close to Garcia's standard. I would expect Garcia to beat her in straight sets like she has done the 2 times these have met in the past.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Broady might've been tanking, I don't know about that, thanks for the info, but you could you please tell me how you came to the conclusion that he could be playing in Cordoba? There might be some main draw wild cards left, but it's not his home country and his ranking is rather low, so I don't think that he's getting that. As for qualifying, the latest entry list that I was able to find doesn't have him among the alternates, with both WCs taken. I'm just asking if you perhaps have better sources than myself.

He is ALT #11 or #12 i think and there are already a few guys in from the ALT list out as for example Arguello and Collarini who are both on the ALT list received MDWCs (like Londero who is also on the Q list right now) so they are out of the ALT list, same for Cachin who received a QWC and probably doesn't need it as he gets in directly. So wouldn't be shocked if he gets in there as some other ALTs are won't come to Cordoba and will pull out like Evan Song or Tak Khun Wang. Furthermore Cordoba is the official replacement of Quito Open and we all know which big success Estrella had there so i won't be surprised if he maybe gets in or receives a wild card for qualies as Cachin as i said who received one should get in directly. He may have some contacts here which help him.  Not 100% sure of course but i wouldn't shocked as said. It isn't a reason to bet against Estrella but everyone who thinks about taking Estrella should take this into account imo. Still i would not bet on Broady here as i said, it's a classic no bet situation imo. But i didn't want to make something bad here, only some additional thoughts for you and everyone who wants to follow.

Edited by opole

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Well, that's certainly useful info, none of the entry lists that I was able to find had more than ten alternates, any chance you could share a link? Because obviously ATP and WTA are retarded enough not to have it as public info, so one always has to google things and get incomplete data.

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