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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 7 - January 13

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I need to apologize here, somehow I managed to read the starting time wrong and put this bet for next week. I've just woken up and the match is in progress right now, with Kadhe seemingly injured, up a set and down a break :loon. I don't even remember something like this happening before, sorry.

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Li Zhe to beat Marc-Andrea Huesler at 1.67 with Pinnacle

In the off-season, Li Zhe won the AO wild card in a tournament and he's lost just once since, producing a 4-1 run last week. He's certainly the bigger talent of the two and I'd have him closer to the 1.44 mark here all things considered. To my eyes, Huesler is just one of those average players who are benefiting from having a lefty serve. He's certainly not as classy as many of the players Zhe has defeated recently (including Vanni, Duck Hee Lee, and Y. Chung).

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Auckland

Peter Gojowczyk @ 1.854 Pinnacle 4/10

Gojowczyk has to defend a quarterfinal from 2018 here and i expect him to play a better match than vs. Marterer in Doha this week. Another reason why i prefer Gojowczyk here is because of Pella pulling out of singles and doubles competition in Doha due to back problems. It must be some serious pain as Pella had to defend a semifinal in Doha and I can't see him going 100% a few days later. Even if his back is better, the Australian Open are starting next week and i do not think he will risk anything before.

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Canberra challenger Qualifications

Fancutt T.- Benchetrit E. bet: 1 @5,59 (Pinnacle)/ stake 6/10

I am quite surprised with odds here- maybe Thomas Fancutt is not the guy who is capable to beat top players (or even top 200) but with Elliot Benchetrit he should have bigger chances then odds suggest us. Mainly because he is local guy and all life spent on those kind of hard courts. Benchetrit completly opposite- he used to be a very solid and no doubt talented junior but he spent all career playing/practicing on clay grounds, rarery on hard surfaces. He started current season in Noumea and proved that he is just average on those fast courts. Generally he beated there Escoffier and Robredo, but hard to say it was something special: Escoffier lost his server 7 times and had 13 double points which is absolutely strange, on other side Benchetrit lost then his serve 5 times what is also a lot. In second round it looked better but his opponent was Tommy Robredo, 36 years old veteran who actually never was strong on hard courts. Finally in 3rd round he was eliminated by Delbonis (who next round was outplayed by Mikael Ymer)- lost 6:3 6:2 in very bad style: just 3 aces comparing to 6 double faults, lost his serve 4 times. On other side Tomas Fancutt already played here in Canberra one match- in first round of qualification he beated very comfortably Zihao Xia 6:3 6:2, looked there really solid, especially on serve so I think he is able to repeat it tonight and do a possible surprise.

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WTA Hobart Outright  Winner Maria Sakkari @16/1 ew (half the odds to reach the final) with Bet365

Maria has just had a very good Hopman Cup including beating Belinda Bencic who is the 2nd favourite here and in the other side of the draw. Maria also ended last season as runner up at San Jose on hard so is clearly on the up.

:hope

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WTA Sydney Outright Winner Anastasija Sevastova @16/1 ew (half the odds to reach the final) with Bet365

Anastasija is definitely in the easier half of the draw and like Maria Sakkari ended last season well with a semi final at the US Open and a runner up in Beijing. She also reached the quarter finals in Brisbane last week so a reasonable start to this season too.

:hope

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3 minutes ago, DrO said:

What type of a player is Ilga Swiatek from Poland?
Is she strong on hard courts?

@CzechPunter? Anyone?

She is comparable to Aga Radwanska I would say. Has a very good defensive game and can find winners from difficult angles even on faster surfaces but clay seems to be her favourite surface since she almost exlusively played on clay as a pro last season but she won the Junior Wimbledon 2018 title beating the talented Whitney Osuigwe in first round. Seems like she is quite an allround player so I think she is probably strong on hard courts.

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Thank you so very much @four-leaf

The thing is..Olga Danilovic will play her R1 match of the AOQ tonight. Against Swiatek. Now..Olga is from Serbia and i follow her career closely. She's very talented and she became the first female player born after Year 2000 who won a WTA Tournament. It was event in Moscow last year.
Yes it whas on clay and yes Olga still didn't prove herself on hard courts,but since i never heard anything about this girl from Poland i thought that value lies on Olga's side tonight. Olga has hired a proven coach couple months ago - Petar Popovic. Petar achieved decent results in the past with the players like Filip Krajinovic,Ivo Karlovic and Andrea Petkovic. I know him in person and i can tell you that he's very ambitious,hard working and dedicated guy. That's why i think that this "collaboration" will be good for young Danilovic.
They've made a strong preparations for the upcoming season in Los Angeles and i expect Olga to continue her tennis progress. 

But now after what you wrote,i think it's better to stay away from this match. 
 

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8 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'd say that Swiatek is way more aggressive than Radwanska, at least from what I managed to see last year. While the vast majority of WTA players are scared to even look at the net, Swiatek isn't afraid to approach it.

Iga won Wimbledon juniors just like Aga Radwanska so that's where she is comparable to Aga so maybe not so mutch comparable with her game. Anyway Olga Danilovic have met Iga Swiatek on hard as a junior and Iga won but after losing first set and in second set Olga retired. So I think Olga should be out for revenge here. 

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Olga Danilovic to beat Iga Swiatek at 2.34 with Unibet

Seems like pretty good value on the higher ranked player here even if she hasn't been to good on hardcourts yet but Iga hasn't done anything special on hardcourt so far either. Clay is where both players have done their best so far but there's no reason to have Olga as this kind of underdog.

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27 minutes ago, DrO said:

Thank you so very much @four-leaf

The thing is..Olga Danilovic will play her R1 match of the AOQ tonight. Against Swiatek. Now..Olga is from Serbia and i follow her career closely. She's very talented and she became the first female player born after Year 2000 who won a WTA Tournament. It was event in Moscow last year.
Yes it whas on clay and yes Olga still didn't prove herself on hard courts,but since i never heard anything about this girl from Poland i thought that value lies on Olga's side tonight. Olga has hired a proven coach couple months ago - Petar Popovic. Petar achieved decent results in the past with the players like Filip Krajinovic,Ivo Karlovic and Andrea Petkovic. I know him in person and i can tell you that he's very ambitious,hard working and dedicated guy. That's why i think that this "collaboration" will be good for young Danilovic.
They've made a strong preparations for the upcoming season in Los Angeles and i expect Olga to continue her tennis progress. 

But now after what you wrote,i think it's better to stay away from this match. 
 

I would take my chances with Olga

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Marta Kostyuk to beat Jana Cepelova at 1.84 with Unibet

Have to give Marta a try here, after all she won Aussie open juniors 2017 and reached the second round of AO in her first attempt last season so she seems to like it down under and has all those points to defend so I think she will give this a try and see if she can start with at least winning her first quali match. She will go out and do her best to reach the maindraw again, Jana is nothing special.

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Olga lost to Hradecka in Brisbane and that's also what scares me a little bit. Because these days Hradecka almost gave up on her career in singles and focused much more on doubles.
Then again..courts in Melbourne should be slower than those in Brisbane and that will suit Olga's style of game more... 

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Rebecca Marino to beat Caroline Dolehide at 1.88 with Unibet

Did go against Caroline last week or not last week but in the qualies to last week when she faced Harriet Dart in Brisbane and she lost 6-0 6-2 and I will do so again because Caro is in really bad form. Rebecca is certainly a player who's been on the rise again ever since she came back in the beginning of last season. She did very well to reach her second Quebec quarterfinal last season and she's probably motivated to get into top 100 again this season so I think it could be smart to side against Caro Dolehide again.

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8 minutes ago, DrO said:

Olga lost to Hradecka in Brisbane and that's also what scares me a little bit. Because these days Hradecka almost gave up on her career in singles and focused much more on doubles.
Then again..courts in Melbourne should be slower than those in Brisbane and that will suit Olga's style of game more... 

Have a try on Olga and see where it gets you but don't go crazy on the stakes.

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