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Tennis Tips - February 11 - February 17

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Gael Monfils to beat David Goffin at 1.83 with Bet365

Taking this early, I expect odds to drop on Gael here. David is only a shadow of his former self right now and he needs a lot more to be done to be able to produce his best tennis and I don't see it coming in Rotterdam.

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Ivo Karlovic to beat Radu Albot at 1.71 with Betsson

I saw Radu playing in Montpellier and he wasn't bad but he still travels to New York after reaching the semifinal in Montpellier and it's always tough with a trip after going far in a tournament the week before and it doesn't get easier when you're facing Dr. Ivo and his serve. I think we'll see Radu struggling more than he did in Montpellier but not as mutch as he stuggled when he lost to J-W Tsonga but enough to lose. They have never met but Radu will have that serve to deal with and nobody gets away easy on grass/hard when Ivo is playing. He is many times not even easy to deal with on clay. I expect Ivo to make a better effort than he did in Montpellier first round where he lost to Marcel Granollers in 3 tie-breaks.

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Malek Jaziri to beat David Ferrer at 3.25 with Betsson

David is ending his career on clay in Madrid in May and not mutch more to say about it. Malek played a bad match in Cordoba when he lost to Pablo Cuevas and he's not going to do mutch better in Buenos Aires but he can beat this soon to be retired player. Huge stake on Malek here as there is a big chance that David will not be competitive.

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Jordan Thompson to beat Noah Rubin at 1.85 with William Hill

Yeah, I agree that Thompson is somewhat better and should be a somewhat bigger favourite here. I would be very confident outside the US, but I think the odds are worth it even with the home conditions factored in.

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Noah Rubin @ 2.15 5dimes 5/10

Fully expect Rubin to play a great tournament here and with Thompson he has a winnable first round. This is Rubins home tournament in New York City. He skipped the last week in Dallas and decided to prepare in New York at home so he is fully fit and ready for the tournament and last year he played a great match vs. Nishikori. Rubin had a close match with Thompson a couple of months ago, i think he will edge it this time. Thompson on the other side had some minor issues before Davis Cup, so he played only doubles there, i think he should be fine here but still without a competitive match for almost four weeks. 

Edited by opole

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10 hours ago, opole said:

Noah Rubin @ 2.15 5dimes 5/10

Fully expect Rubin to play a great tournament here and with Thompson he has a winnable first round. This is Rubins home tournament in New York City. He skipped the last week in Dallas and decided to prepare in New York at home so he is fully fit and ready for the tournament and last year he played a great match vs. Nishikori. Rubin had a close match with Thompson a couple of months ago, i think he will edge it this time. Thompson on the other side had some minor issues before Davis Cup, so he played only doubles there, i think he should be fine here but still without a competitive match for almost four weeks. 

I forgot to check where Noah comes from and I read he's from Long Island. To bad I missed that.

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Franko Skugor (+4.5) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Jeremy Chardy (+1.5 sets) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.96 with Pinnacle

The conditions in Rotterdam looked rather quick in the qualifiers and that might help Skugor and Chardy to get something from their matches. Skugor has always had a very decent serve and even that could be enough for him to cover the line against Shapovalov, especially since he knows how the surface plays with two qualifying wins under his belt. Meanwhile, Medvedev could be somewhat tired after a long week in Sofia and the conditions look different enough for him to be possibly troubled, as Chardy is no pushover.

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Challenger Bangkok

Tiurnev to win against Kuzmanov - odds around 3.4

I looked at the odds for this match just because Kuzmanov played (and lost) against Robin Haase in Sofia last week. Haase is a in bad form (just lost in Rotterdam) and so must be Kuzmanov. I checked his record in 2019 - he has lost all 3 matches that he played. Apart from Haase, he played 2 players ranked around 540 (Artem Dubrivnyy and Manuel Guinard).

Tiurnev's current rank is 540. He has won 4 and lost 2 matches this year. Already played a qualifier in Bangkok, so he has warmed up.

Anything can happen in this match, so I expect there's some value in backing the underdog. I have not placed a bet yet, because I would normally use bet365 and they do not offer it for some reason.

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Hyeon Chung at 1.84 with 888

Basilashvili lost in the first round in Sofia against Brands and retired from the doubles so looks like he had some kind of problem but that was 1 week ago and he should be fit for this one. Chung did nothing remarkable since he reached the semifinals the last year in the AO. This year he lost against Herbert in the second round in what was an expected early loss from him considering his form and lost in the first round in Chennai (Gulbis: 7-6, 6-2) and Auckland (Rubin Statham: 7-5, 6-3).

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Aljaz Bedene to win the 2nd Quarter at 12.00 with bet365

At first i have to say that this bet is very complicated but i would like to try it. In the second quarter we have: Schwartzman (1.72), David Ferrer (2.50), Albert Ramos (8.50), Bedene (12.00), Jaziri (17.00) and Andreozzi (23.00). Bedene reached the Final the last year here winning against Vesely, Albert Ramos, Schwartzman and Delbonis (he lost in the Final against Thiem) so we have 2 players (Schwartzman and Albert Ramos) in this quarter that he beat the last year here.

Bedene will play against Andreozzi in the first round (his victory against him is paid at 1.36). Andreozzi was destroyed in the previous tournament in Cordoba by Munar (6-1, 6-4). Schwartzman is the most dangerous player here and Bedene will face him in the second round. I watched Schwartzman in Cordoba against Giannessi and he played horrible, he lost the first set but finally he won that match because Giannessi had some physical problems. Then, Schwartzman lost his second match there against Pella in straight sets. Surprisingly, Bedene has win the 4 matches that he has played against Diego, including his victory against him of the last year in this tournament by a double 6-4. The final player will be Albert Ramos, Jaziri or Ferrer. Bedene played decently in his previous tournament (Cordoba) beating there Marterer (6-3, 6-4) and Fognini (6-1, 6-4) and losing against Cuevas (7-6, 6-1) who played well there reaching the Semifinals. I repeat, this a hard bet but i like it for the reasons that I have explained here.

Edited by darko08

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Joao Sousa to beat Juan Ignacio Londero at 1.72 with betfair

Londero had an amazing week winning in Cordoba but I can’t imagine him doing another deep run here after playing 5 matches in 5 days. He will play against another good claycourter with more experience and he should be tired after his 5 matches in Cordoba. The only problem here is that Sousa is not in his best (he lost recently his 2 matches against Bublik and Kukushkin in the Davis Cup) but he’s better ranked (41) and has more experience so I expect him to win against a player that should be tired.

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Aljaz Bedene (-3.0) to beat Guido Andreozzi at 1.70 with Marathonbet

I already posted the reasons to go with Bedene here but i will repeat the reasons. He reached the Final the last year (winning against Vesely, Albert Ramos, Schwartzman and Delbonis) so he defends 150 points here and will fall like 20 positions if he lose in the first match. He won against Marterer (6-3, 6-4) and Fognini (6-1, 6-4) in his previous tournament in Cordoba, losing against Cuevas (7-6, 6-1) in the quarterfinals (that 6-1 in the second set suggest me that after losing the first set in the tie-break he was thinking in this tournament during the second one). Anyway, he looks well prepared for this important week for him. The only problem here is that he faces a local player but looks like the last year that was not a real problem for him considering that he won against 2 better local players (Schwartzman and Delbonis). Andreozzi has lost in straight sets in his previous two tournaments played this year on clay (6-1, 6-4 against Jaume Munar in Cordoba and 7-6, 7-5 against Emilio Gómez in Punta del Este).

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Londero to beat Sousa 2.50 Pinnacle

Londero is the new prodigy on clay. The guy beat so many clay good players last week. During 2018 he played 18 matches on clay on 3 challenger tounaments. Won one of them and reached the semifinals on the two others. Sousa just lost twice on Davis cup. His results on clay in the last few yeas aren't so good. He is losing a lot in the first round.

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20 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Londero to beat Sousa 2.50 Pinnacle

Londero is the new prodigy on clay. The guy beat so many clay good players last week. During 2018 he played 18 matches on clay on 3 challenger tounaments. Won one of them and reached the semifinals on the two others. Sousa just lost twice on Davis cup. His results on clay in the last few yeas aren't so good. He is losing a lot in the first round.

You forget that Joao won Estoril open last season beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinal so he is quite alright on clay. I think Juan will run out of steam here and lose pretty easily.

Edited by four-leaf

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Jelena Ostapenko to beat Elina Svitolina at 3.70 with Unibet

Elinas record in Doha isn't good and Jelena has already played a match and is well prepared to face her opponent. Jelena has beaten Elina two times already in straight sets and it could happen again. We all know Jelena is a dangerous player to face who can win easily if she has a good day.

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Jelena Ostapenko (+1,5 Sets) to beat Elina Svitolina 2.06 with Marathonbet

Anett Kontaveit to beat Angelique Kerber at 2.62 with betfair

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.61 with betfair

This time I have no time to explain the bets. The Jelena match is already explained by fourleaf. Kontaveit leads the h2h against Kerber 2-0 and has already played one match here so I expect her to put Kerber in more troubles than the odds suggest. The tricky player Hsieh should be too much for the young Muchova.

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Back Albert Ramos-Vinolas to beat David Ferrer at 2.50 with WillHill

I somewhat agreed on the previous calls against Ferrer, but opted to just spectate his match with Jaziri. This time is different, at these odds I have no choice but back Ramos-Vinolas :) He might not be in his best form, that's a fact, but should still have a very good chance here against a player who struggled well enough during his previous encounter.

I also see some nice set handicap options, in my opinion, Mayer, Ostapenko (as also mentioned above by some of you), Shapovalov, Suarez Navarro and Blinkova should all have a decent chance to take at least a set.

FYI: I rarely post my picks over here, but when I do they usually lose... xD 

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Brayden Schnur to beat Steve Johnson at 3.20 with Paddy Power

On a bit of a losing streak at the moment, but I suppose that was expected given the nice winning run at the start of the year. Nevertheless, I still want to play Schnur, especially after going through Johnson's record book that has so many recent losses that it's almost unbelievable. Of course, Schnur is a guy he could finally beat, but he's played some decent matches here already and has enough talent to stay there with Johnson. At 3.20, I think the bookies are underestimating Schnur's chances here.

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