Leaderboard

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times. I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times. So my revised method is :- 1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time. 2. Convert these into seconds per mile. 3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class. 4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment. 5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting. 6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance. This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :- 1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10. 4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2. 6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution. 7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1. 8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1. 9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2. 10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2. 11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2. 12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races). 13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1. A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.

AW selection Southwell 5.00 WONDERFUL EAGLE

Most winners Congratulations to @Alastair who wins for the 11th time (unless he loses his marbles). The Real Madrid of the competition !

Rated Frontal assault 9.0 33/1 Minella cocooner 8.8 25/1 Mac's charm .8.3. 25/1 Was looking for some value and ratings didn't disappoint .....I'm liking frontal assault as his fourth in the portestown reads well now dropped 4lbs ....5 PT Ew all three ....any thoughts on race ??

A few proviso's here. I could only rate Runners from Britain, Ireland, Meydan, and Jebel Ali. Which leaves out Japan and the USA. So a bit of caution is advised. 12:05 1 Isolate 129 3rd 2 Remorse 129 3 Swing Vote 127 12:40 1 Coltrane 143 2 Enemy 134 3 Tower of London 133 won 1:30 1 Danyah 136 2 Emeraaty Anna 136 3 Dilligent Harry 132 3rd 1:50 1 Mendelsson Bay (my best guess) 2:25 1 Leading Spirit 132 2 Mouheeb 131 3 Tuz/Colour up 130 won 10/1 /up 3:10 1 Luxembourg 145 2 Real World 135 3 Nashwa 134 4:00 1 August Rodin 143 2 Spirit Dancer 133 3 Emily Upjohn 131 4:35 1 Military Law 126 2 Derm Sotogaki 125 3 Laurel River 123 won 17/2 Made a bit of profit on the day by way of my Tadhg O'Shea double on my O'Shea (L15) and a few bits and bobs on the places/extra places. but overall as usual at this meeting there were some iffy results so can't really complain.

Lingfield 1.30 The first of eleven races covered by ITV cameras today on All-Weather Finals day is this sixteen runner BetUK All-Weather Vase Apprentice Handicap, a class 4 event run over 1M 4F. Many have chances but its the Brandon Wilkie ridden Siempre Arturo that catches my eye. Trained by one of my favourite training duos in Daniel & Claire Kubler, this lightly raced four year old has only had had four racecourse starts, winning two of them including last time out at Wolverhampton when defeating Sense Of Worth by a length. The 3rd and 4th from that race have both won since to frank the form and with just a 4lb rise to contend with and the extra 2 1/2F likely to be in his favour looks the value play in this tight knit handicap. SIEMPRE ARTURO 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5 12345 Newcastle 1.53 Thirteen go to post for the 2M 56 yard class 2 BetUK All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap. The Ralph J Smith trained Palace Boy looks a value play here. He started out for Smith at Wolverhampton following a 288 break in which he ran over hurdles for Fergal O’Brien when he actually ran in the 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The seven year old ran out a very easy 6L winner off of what was obviously a very lenient handicap mark of just 68 and following another success at the midlands track and a good second to the re-opposing Spartan Army finds himself on a mark 18lb higher. Spartan Army looks a threat here but on 7lb better terms for a 1 1/4L defeat Palace Boy can turn the form around and run a big race under George Rooke, who’s been in the plate on all three starts so far for Smith. PALACE BOY 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5 1234 Lingfield 2.05 A maximum field of fourteen go to post for this class 3 BetUK All-Weather Vase Middle Distance Handicap run over 1M 2F. Another open looking handicap although Karl Burke’s Bystander had Inspiritus a length and a half behind over course and distance last time and although 4lb worse off won a tad cosily that day despite drifting out to his right on the run to the line. Brandon Wilkie was on board that day and is again in the saddle and could provide the promising young jockey with a Lingfield brace with his mount Siempre Arturo holding a good chance in the opener. The Daniel & Claire Kubler trained Al Rufaa is well berthed in stall 5 and may prove to be the danger in this open handicap. BYSTANDER 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5 1234 Newcastle 2.25 The class 2 6F BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Handicap has attracted just eleven runners and like many of the races today has an open look about it. Bar a disappointing run at Lingfield on his penultimate run, Andrew Balding’s Fire Demon would be an even shorter price than he already is. A well related Juddmonte entire, he bounced back to form last time at Kempton when beating the re-opposing Media shooter by 1 1/4L and a 5lb rise may not be enough to stop him from following up here for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. That form has already taken a boost by the runner up and sixth winning since and he should be thereabouts. FIRE DEMON 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365 Lingfield 2.40 A maximum field of twelve race for the class 3 BetMGM All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap. Dingle ran third in this last year and off of the same handicap mark can be competitive although the one to be with surely is the Gary Moore trained, Tom Queally ridden Cephalus. He comes here chasing a four timer having won under Queally at Kempton, Wolverhampton and Southwell. He was as impressive last time as in any of those victories and although he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty actually goes up 7lb in future handicaps so is effectively 2lb well in today. A draw of ten is not ideal but he may still be ahead of the handicap and is the bet here. CEPHALUS 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365 Newcastle 3.00 Just nine have declared for the £150,000 guaranteed BetMGM Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Handicap, a class 2 event run over 7F and 14 yards. Top weight Nine Tenths is a consistent four year old filly trained at Newmarket by William Haggas who appears to be the one they all have to beat here. Surprisingly left on the same handicap mark for a second and win on her last two starts in listed company she drops back into handicap company with the stable’s 7lb claiming apprentice Jack Enright taking over from William Buick. Enright has ridden five winners from 97 runners in Ireland and Britain over the past three seasons and was on board when Nine Tenths won at Wolverhampton back in December so knows the horse well enough. She may just be too classy for her eight rivals today. NINE TENTHS 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365 Lingfield 3.15 A stamina test awaits the maximum fourteen runners here in the class 3 2M BetUK All-Weather Vase Marathon Handicap. The race has a very open look about it and this is maybe a contest that can go to Ireland with the Denis Gerard Hogan trained Riyami. A Dundalk winner over 2M last month he went off a well backed 11/8 favourite at the same venue when, in a amateur riders handicap, was one of many jockeys that let the eventual winner get the best part of a furlong ahead before running on late to take second place some 15L behind. His jockey, along with eleven others was suspended for five days and that run can easily be forgotten. J M Sheridan is over to ride today and is maybe a bit of each way value. RIYAMI 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Coral 1/5 1234 Newcastle 3.35 Next up is the 6F BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap in which we have a maximum field of fourteen. Cover Up impressed me immensely last time and the step up to 6F may not hinder the Gosden runner although he has to deal with a very hefty 13lb rise in the weights and it may be worth looking elsewhere for the winner. One horse who does appear to be on a decent enough mark is Harry Charlton’s Batal Dubai. Owned by Middleham Park Racing he’s been placed in three decent class 2 6F handicaps this year and appeared not to really handle the track when third, coming wide around the bend, to the re-appearing Chipstead last time at Lingfield. 2lb better off now and with the long straight of Newcastle much more to his liking he can run a big race under Clifford Lee for a trainer who’s been amongst the winners recently. BATAL DUBAI 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5 1234 Lingfield 3.50 A maximum field of twelve declared for this class 3 6F BetUK All-weather Vase Sprint Handicap. This is a very open contest in which any of the participants could win. 5lb apprentice Brandon Wilkie could be in for a golden day and rides Hugo Palmer’s, Middleham Park Racing owned five year old How Impressive who has as good a chance as any. Nicely berthed in stall 5 he’s won three of his last four starts rising 13lb in the process and may appreciate dropping back to 6F having raced last time over 7F at Southwell. HOW IMPRESSIVE 1/2 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5 1234 Newcastle 4.10 Another maximum field go to post for this 1M 2F 42 yard BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap, a class 2 race that has a purse of £200,000 plus. Irish raider and top weight Elegant Man is interesting with some future group entries and he may be the one to be with here despite carrying a big weight. It’s quite possible that he is the proverbial group horse in a handicap. Mick Appleby’s prolific winner Penzance and Simon & Ed Crisford’s four timer seeking Oh So Grand both have decent claims with slight preference for the latter who has the assistance once again of Jack Mitchell, who’s been on top for his last three wins. He’s risen 18lb for those success’s which has included a victory here as well as a brace at Lingfield. Four from five on the all-weather he can give the selection Elegant Man the most to do. ELEGANT MAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5 1234 Newcastle 4.40 The final race on the card is the 1M 5 yard BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap, a class 2 event in which we have another maximum field of fourteen. Charlie Johnstone’s progressive Middleham Park owned top weight Dear My Friend has been a revelation this all-weather season and can complete a four timer here following success’s over course and distance and a brace of wins, including in listed company at Lingfield. He’s risen 16lb in the handicap for those wins and with Joe Fanning back in the saddle looks sure to be thereabouts. DEAR MY FRIEND 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

Beat the Edge 3:20 Wetherby (3/1 general). Missed the price (was 6/1 last night), but this looks to have a good chance. C/D winner here last year on soft and now 5lb lower, In form Hughes an eye catching jockey booking too. Gets lumps of weight from the 2 main dangers. Maskia probably has the best bit of form in the race, but that was on good ground and has been off for 2 year, so will probably need the run but one to keep an eye on on better ground. 1pt win Beat the Edge Rubbish, thought he was smuggling him into the race, but didn't pick up at all and the winner did it easy. P/L: -1.4pts.

700 S Turbo Command 11/1 Did best work at end of 7f lto Mulrennan's only ride won on trainers last runner

I'll take you on in the same race with the Simcock / Turner combination with TRADESMAN 3/1 bet365 . 2nd , good shout from @MCLARKE bagging the 8/1 winner 👏

15:55 Wetherby Good Luck Charm 0.5pts E/W @17/2 (4 places readily)

royal mer 3.20

+338.55 Time running out in my attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie ....... had 2 a few times and been denied the 3rd in photo finishes twice ....... time to try some short priced and odds on favourites 2.32 Fon - Copper Cove 11/8 3.42 Fon - In D'Or 4/5 4.30 Wet - Imperial Alex 8/11 prices skybet £5 Trixie

Won. BSP 12.32. 65 from 244, LSP 69.54

Dubai Is a great meeting to test your speed figures because of the limited population of horses. Only problem is, after Saturday no more racing until December. World cup night is a bit of an anomaly but the other dates are pretty consistent.

just noticed from your list that Chipstead is running tomorrow ....... Newc 3.35

Not had a bet but probably will do on the day , the 2 that interest me are both 7 year olds as are the last 2 winners & both open to improvement HARTUR DARC 9/1 PP ( 5 places ) YEAH MAN 10/1 PP ( 5 places ) the more rain the better for this one backing up the Haydock run .

800 S Em Jay Kay 25/1 Second time into a c4 8-11 Could go well off 66 with a good possy by Gordon.

@yossa6133 I always watch all the carnival meets on dubai racing, can get it: awaan.ae on live streams, will be on dubai racing 1,2 or 3. Had Giavellotto 1240 Meydan on my radar for while, was no good in this race last year which is a worry, but probably had career best last time in Saudi, beaten by Tower Of London and Enemy but was carrying 6lb more as it was a handicap, surely will be in the mix 10/1 paddy Power 5 places

I still don’t see it, as requested tell me how you would stake the bets in such a way that it makes sense, e.g. x points on this, y points on this etc (or are you suggesting level stakes on each bet?). We can’t have someone putting up every possible outcome as a “tip” in the absence of a viable staking plan.

I’m sorry, but I can’t see any logic in those bets. Please tell me how you’d stake those bets in a way that makes sense and gives you a chance of making a profit. You’re backing all the possible outcomes at odds that seem to preclude any way of making a profit, unless I’m missing something.

Lined up in the queue Norwich v Plymouth Over 0.5 Goals [email protected] to be matched

Will do,I have my eyes on a few tomorrow

Wetherby 5.40 Jupiter Des Mottes 15/2 WH

Day 91 +72

Waiting for Cadiz's odds to go up a little I like the Cadiz-0.25 around 1.9

I like it for tomorrow Burgos+0 but I'm waiting for the odds to go up About 1.90

Well i watch them on bet365, It was on terrestrial last year but not sure about this year.

Birmingham 3.75 Lens 3.5 15 double please

Wetherby 3.55 Montregard (7/1 wh)

Wetherby 3.55 Al Kalila 12/1 EW b365

1555WETH MONTREGARD 7/1 WH

Sir Benedict 16.25 Southwell 12/1 bet365 Each way

Hereford 1440 My monty 29 ew william hill

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

I'm trying to keep it simple but not being very successful ! With regard to calculating the going adjustment I have five options (at least) 1 Use all the races at a meeting 2 Ignore the slowest and the fastest 3 Take the 3 fastest 4 Only include the handicaps 5 Take the 3 with biggest fields I'll start with option 1 but will be interested in others opinions

I understand what you are saying but if there is over 0.5 goal then you win.