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Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
Tedthewolf and 6 others reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
Doncaster 1.50 The first of five races shown today by the ITV cameras and the first of the four day Doncaster St Leger meeting is this class 2 6F 111 yard fillies nursery which has attracted a decent sized field of sixteen. The race has a wide open look to it with the likes of Karl Burke’s Toomuchforme, making his handicap debut and George Boughey’s Beauty Nation also making his debut in a handicap holding as good a chance as any. It’s the type of race where it would be no shock were a big priced one to pop up so it may well be worth chancing Andrew Balding’s juvenile Ghost Run who will be ridden by the very much in form (when isn’t he?) Oisin Murphy. She made all when breaking her duck in a Newbury maiden in July and has’t been disgraced since in a similar grade nursery at Newmarket and a valuable sales race at York. She’s worth playing to small stakes and extra places. GHOST RUN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet354 1/5th 12345 Doncaster 2.25 With prize money down to tenth place this £300,000 guaranteed 6F 111 yard class 2 sales race has attracted a near maximum field of twenty two-year-olds spread across Town Moor. The Gimcrack form was given a boost by the third Symbol Of Strength winning at the weekend and we have the 5th and 6th re-opposing each other here in the shape of Caburn and Camille Pissarro.The former was 1 3/4L ahead of the latter that day and is 4lb better off as well. He can run well along with Edward Bethell’s Intrusively who is the highest rated of those that have an official rating. One horse who does look over priced is Charlie Hill’s Victory Sound. He had Intrusively 1L back in third when winning a Haydock maiden in June and although 5lb worse off surely shouldn’t be four times the price. His only run since came in the Group 3 Solario Stakes over 7F when weakening inside the final furlong finishing sixth (of 7) beaten 7L. This represents a drop in grade and with the trip half a furlong shorter than Sandown in his favour can run well at a big price with boy wonder Billy Loughnane in the saddle. He can be backed to small stakes with additional places. VICTORY SOUND 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Doncaster 3.00 Ten have declared for the Group 2 Betfred May Hill Stakes run over the straight mile for juvenile fillies. The warm favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Godolphin filly Desert Flower who’s looked a smart prospect in winning a maiden and novice stakes on Newmarket’s July course this summer. She had little to beat when coasting home at odds of 1/4 last time and as promising as she looks is a very short price for one taking a marked step up in grade. In fact official ratings have her, David Loughnane’s Anshada and Aidan O’Brien’s January all on the same mark. I’m happy to let her win at the likely skinny odds and find one to take her on each way. Aidan O’Brien saddles a a brace in the shape of the aforementioned January and Ecstatic. Ryan Moore has picked the latter prompting the bookmakers to cut her from 12/1 into 4/1 pushing out her stable mate January near enough the same odds the opposite way. A daughter of Ribblesdale winner Magic Wand she impressed when winning a Tipperary maiden by 3 1/4L last month and with her trainer having so much juvenile filly talent is worth backing each way. ECSTATIC 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Doncaster 3.35 Ten smart fillies race for the 1M 6F 115 yard Group 2 Betfred Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes. Andrew Balding’s Night Sparkle is the highest rated in the field although 6lb covers seven of the runners and it has an open feel to it. Last year’s winner Sumo Sam really needs the heavens to open to have any proper chance and the same can be said about Gather Ye Rosebuds. Hughie Morrison’s Mistral Star is maybe the bet here having shown form on all types of ground. Only out of the first four once in her ten race career she appeals as a good each way bet now stepping up to 1M 6F for the first time. A listed winner at Newmarket in July she matched that run when fourth of 8 in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks last time out when only a 11/1 chance. If she stays (and there’s no reason on breeding to suggest she won’t stay particularly well) she can be competitive under William Buick which is, obviously, a positive jockey booking. MISTRAL STAR 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123 Doncaster 4.10 A ten runner class 2 handicap run over 1M 2F makes up the quintet of terrestrial TV races today. Theres no standout horse in the field but there are a couple of interesting handicap debutants in Simon & Ed Crisford’s Victorious Street who beat the subsequent winner Skipper in a Southwell maiden last month. William Buick takes over from Ross Coakley and can be thereabouts whilst the Ed Walker trained Harper’s Ferry is equally as interesting. He beat the useful Poniros a length at Windsor back in April and was last seen when flying high in finishing down the field in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He re-appears here having been gelded. By a French Derby winner out of an Oaks winner he could be very well handicapped off of just 93 and is the one for me. HARPERS FERRY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1237 points -
Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
The Equaliser and 4 others reacted to Robski for a topic
Grey Cuban wins at 10/1.5 points -
Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
BBBC and 4 others reacted to black rabbit for a topic
Graphite 5 50Don 1/40th of a pt ew 38/1 Dear Cat 1 50Don 1/40th of a pt ew 10/1 Holder 2 35Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 14/1 -Won An Outlaws Grace 2 25Don 1/40th of a pt ew 16/15 points -
Racing Chat - Saturday 14th September
Wildgarden and 3 others reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
Doncaster 1.50 The first of five races covered by the ITV cameras on the third day of four of the Doncaster St Leger meeting is the Group 2 Betfred Champagne Stakes run over 7F for two-year-old cots and geldings. Six promising juveniles had declared with the John & Thady Gosden trained Chancellor heading the market. He’s won twice here at Town Moor this season from just three starts and must be a live player. Arguably the form horse is the Hugo Palmer trained Wolf Of Badenoch who’s second last time out at in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood has been franked by the horse that finished 1 1/2L behind him winning the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes since. The one horse though that really took my breath away on his debut was the Richard Spencer trained Righthere Rightnow who spreadeagled his field on his debut on Newmarket’s July course coming home 5L to the good. It was one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen this summer from a newcomer and even though the form hasn’t really held up (eight have run from the race and all been beat) he’s a must back for me with Rossa Ryan replacing Rab Havlin who is claimed to ride Chancellor for the Gosdens. RIGHTHERE RIGHTNOW 1 point win @ 7-2 BetVictor Chester 2.05 Eight stand their ground for the listed Virgin Bet Stand Cup Stakes run over 1M 4 1/2F with the race to be run on soft ground. The stand out bet here has to be the William Haggas trained La Yakel whose form figures on soft ground or worse read 121. He ran out a comfortable 2 1/2L winner of a valuable 1M 4F handicap on heavy ground last time out at Hamilton and with Adam Farragher coming in for the plum ride as the likes of Marquand and Fallon are riding elsewhere can win again. The biggest threat may come from last year’s winner Al Qareem who beat the smart Bluestocking in this last year. LA YAKEL 2 points win @ 7-4 bet365 Doncaster 2.25 The day’s big handicap is the 5F 143 yard Betfred Portland Handicap in which we have a maximum field of twenty two sprinters. As you would expect it’s a wide open contest with many holding claims. John & Thady Gosden’s Cover Up must be on the short list after a luckless effort last time out at York when fifth to Elmonjed along with last week’s winner Shahgreen although he has been re-assessed and is now 3lb higher in the ratings. My two against the field are the ultra consistent Jim Goldie trained American Affair who was third to the aforementioned Shahgreen a week ago at Haydock (now 3lb better off) having not had the cleanest of runs throughout and at a bigger price the Richard Fahey trained Vintage Clarets who’s on a winning mark and this is his time of the year. The main play is American Affair but I can’t resist a small ew saver on Vintage Clarets. AMERICAN AFFAIR 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 VINTAGE CLARETS 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 Chester 2.40 Thirteen runners go to post for this class 2 Livescore Bet Watergate Cup over just short of 2M. Two mudlarks who fought out the finish of the race last year, Tashkan and Emiyn are back again to renew rivalry and with conditions very much in their favour can both go close again. Last year Brian Ellison’s Tashkan beat Emiyn by a length but is now 2lb worse off and on that form there shouldn’t be much between them. Tashkan ran a shocker last time out mind and sports a first time visor here whilst Emiyn is a real track specialist having won three of his ten starts here by making all on each of those occasions. He’s bagged stall 1 today and even though this is a 2M race that has to be a bonus with the only three confirmed pace forcers drawn in stalls 11 and 13. Hopefully 3lb claiming apprentice Zak Wheatley, who knows him well having ridden him on eight occasions previously including two of his 3 wins here, can set the right fractions and take the spoils. He’s the selection but I can’t resist a small stakes saver on Tashkan. EMIYN 1 point each way @ 6/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234 TASHKAN 1/2 point each way @ bet365 1/5th 1234 Doncaster 3.00 The Betfred Park Stakes is a Group 2 contest run over 7F and has this year attracted ten runners. 2022 winner Kinross heads the market but I’m not entirely sure the seven-year-old is as good as he was and is opposable here. Lead Artist is lightly raced for the Gosden’s and looks a player though is dropping down a furlong today. Poet Master has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his Group 2 victory at The Curragh and there maybe some value in the Andrew Balding trained three-year-old Al Shabab Storm who’s won three of his last four starts including a Group 3 in Germany at Baden-Baden last month (he has no penalty for that win). His form this year is littered with horses that have gone on to win at pattern company with the likes of Quinault and Breege amongst them and with only officially 4lb to find with the top rated looks a value play each way especially with the firms who are paying four places. AL SHABAB STORM 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234 Doncaster 3.40 The final English classic of the season is the group 1 1M 6 1/2F Betfred St Leger which has attracted a field of just seven. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has three of the field including current favourite Illinois who to my eyes has the best form and stays well. A winner over this trip in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot he’s finished runner up in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris and Group 2 Great Voltigeur over 1M 4F and will relish stepping back up in trip. Wayne Lordan rode him last time and in the absence of Ryan Moore who’s over in Ireland takes the mount here. The dangers may well come from within with Grosvenor Square who made all to win unchallenged by 20L at The Curragh last time and Jan Brueghel who’s unbeaten in three starts including twice in Group 3 company and stepping up in trip here representing the master Irish trainer. It would be no shock to see him have a 1-2-3. The home contingent is led by the Ralph Beckett trained filly You Got To Me and on ratings she should be bang there but I’m not sure this test of stamina will suit this exuberant racer. ILLIONIS 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill4 points -
I enjoyed watching that and have subscribed to their channel .... Of course none of it concerns me 'cos I only bet a pound at a time ........ I'm an OAP !4 points
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Ratings 4.10 donny. Cuban grey 103 12/1. Perethean 98. 9/2. 2 pts win on both. 1pt e.way reverse forecast.cast. 5.50 donny. 101 graphite.22/1. Per contra 99 and Sara toga gold 99. 10/1 and 22/1. 1pt e.way all 3.and 1/2 point combi f.cast and tricasts.4 points
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Weekend Football Bets > 12th - 15th September
MinellaWorksop and 2 others reacted to CakeCakeCake for a topic
6 bets are shortlisted for this weekend - Aston Villa AH -1 1.88 - stake 1 unit - Newcastle win 2.18 - stake 1 unit - Sunderland win 1.86 - stake 1 unit - Sheffield United win 2.28 - stake 1 unit - Inter Milan AH -1.5 1.93 - stake 1 unit - Barcelona win 1.9 - stake 1 unit All price Betfair 0.5 unit split equally on 22 bets as 4/5/6 folds across the below Villa to win by 2+ Newcastle win Sunderland win Sheffield win Inter win by 2+ Barcelona win 6.5 units in play this weekend Good luck everyone on your bets this week!3 points -
To be fair I've made decent profits on football, again all statistics based and I've played the casinos to make me look more like a mug3 points
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DPWT Irish Open 2024
fd1972uk and 2 others reacted to CakeCakeCake for a topic
🤦♂️I missed shortlisting selections in time for tee off. Will wait until end of Day 1 and see if anything stands out in play Good luck this weekend!3 points -
Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
The Brigadier and 2 others reacted to Thornwick for a topic
It's belting it down 2mins from track thunder and lightning and hailstones3 points -
This looks like a tasty-looking tournament with a few early-round match-ups looking more akin to the latter stages. * With this being in Holland, I don't think you can rule out Barney having a good run. * I think I've had about as much as I can handle with Dobey so he's out of my shortlist (cue a win) * IF he brings the level of the recent few weeks, Wright has a nice draw. Wright has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads in the match-up with Chisnall. He'd then have Jeff Smith, Price/Menzies/DVD and then probably Rob Cross to make a final. You'll notice a couple of Dutch in here as I do like to follow a local "hero" I was also tempted by Nijman but I think DVD or Wright will get the better of him in the latter stages. 1pt e/w Wright 22/1 Bet365 1pt e/w DVD 40/1 Bet365 ------------------------------------------------ 0.5pts e/w Menzies 50/1 Bet365 0.5pts e/w Barney 125/1 Paddypower 0.5pts e/w Clemens 200/1 Skybet2 points
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Racing Chat - Friday 13th September
Wildgarden and one other reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
Doncaster 1.50 The first of five races covered by the ITV cameras on day two of the Doncaster Leger meeting is the eight runner class 2 Mallard Handicap run over 1m 6F. The race appears to revolve around the front three in the market in the Roger Varian York winner Shadow Dance, who’s trying this trip for the first time, James Fanshawe’s 2M Goodwood winner East India Dock and the Andrew Balding trained Subsequent. It’s the last named that gets the vote having won three of his last four starts including at Newmarket last time when trying this trip for the first time, running out a comfortable 1 1/4L winner from Calvert under Callum Hutchinson. A rise of just 4lb may not be enough to stop the Galileo gelding from scoring again with Oisin Murphy taking over in the saddle. SUBSEQUENT 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365 Doncaster 2.25 A small field of seven have declared for the listed 7F Flying Scotsman Stakes. It would be apt for the great trainer Sir Michael Stoute to score having decided to retire at the end of the season.He saddles the Juddmonte owned two year old Jonquil who made a winning debut at Sandown a fortnight ago under today’s jockey Ryan Moore. He was badly hampered a furlong out but showed his class when barging his way through and getting on top close home. He’ll need to step up again here but that is quite possible and although he’s short enough in the betting has to be the selection here. Charlie Appleby’s Symbol Of Honour hasn’t been seen since finishing sixth in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and has been gelded since. He may be the biggest danger to Jonquil. JONQUIL 1 Point win @ 11/8 Betfred Doncaster 3.00 The Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes is for two-year-olds and run over the minimum distance of 5F. A case can be made for a few here with just 4lb covering the top rated seven in the twelve strong field. Mick Appleby’s Big Mojo will appreciate dropping back to 5F having finished 4th in the Gimcrack at York (3rd won since) and should be thereabouts along with Archie Watson’s Aesterius who was only 3/4L behind him at Goodwood. The horse I like however is the Irish raider Magnum Force who’s neck second to the re-opposing Tropical Storm can be seriously marked up as he was racing on the much less advantageous near side that day as well as failing to get a clear run. He should be turning the tables on his rival and Ger Lyons’s Mehmas colt can go one better here under Colin Keane, who’s here for just the one ride. MAGNUM FORCE 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill Doncaster 3.35 The 2M 2F Group 2 Doncaster Cup has attracted just six runners with all bar rag Wise Eagle having claims. Rain though would be needed for last year’s winner Trueshan to show his best. John & Thady Gosden saddle a brace in Gregory and Sweet William who were separated by a head last time out in the Goodwood Cup behind champion stayer Kyprios. Both have claims but it’s the latter who appeals slightly more. He was runner up in this last year and today could be his day. I’m not quite sure why Point Lonsdale is staying at this trip as he looked a non stayer last time out at York in the Lonsdale Cup over 2M although I’m sure his trainer Aidan O’Brien knows best! Coltrane doesn’t look the same horse he once was and this test of stamina can go to Sweet William with Rab Havlin in the saddle. SWEET WILLIAM 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor Salisbury 3.55 The feature race of the day at Salisbury is the 6F Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes, a race that was abandoned last week but rescued for today’s card. A field of eight have declared and the the two to beat are the once raced pair of William Haggas’s Jewelry, a winner at Newbury on her racecourse debut when going off a seemingly unfancied 14/1 and Ralph Beckett’s Kingman filly Tabiti. Slight preference is for the latter who was well backed on her debut at Newmarket when running out a good 3 1/4L winner under today’s pilot Rossa Ryan. The 6th has won since to frank the form and with a Group 1 Fillies’ Mile entry could be anything. She was well backed in the morning of the abandoned race last week so expect o see plenty of money for her again. TABITI 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill Doncaster 4.10 The final ITV race of the day is the class 2 1M 4F fillies handicap which features seven participants. For the money the race is a bit disappointing with the Ed Walker trained Miss Alpilles the selection. She appeared to improve for the application of a first time hood last time out when winning a class 5 handicap at Haydock which has been franked since by the subsequent victories of the 2nd and 3rd. The daughter of Sea The Stars has been raised 9lb for that success so things won’t be easy but this is only her sixth racecourse start so there could easily be more improvement to come. Jamie Spencer was on board last time and retains the ride here. MISS ALPILLES 1 Pont each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 1232 points -
Results summary- 150 Grizelda 3rd at 14/1 225 Cabourn flop NB Miss Nightfall 3rd at 20/1 300 Desert Flower won 1/1 440 Thunder Wonder Flop NB Yaroogh won at 10/1 515 Harmonia won at 25/1 (my Nap) 200 Bold Impact won at 1/1 425 Bear Code last 1255 Misunderstood won at15/8 205 Relaxx lost The prices quoted here are what i actually obtained and BOG So not a bad day No forecasts unfortunately apart from the one in France that wasn't worth doing.2 points
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Good luck mate Yes quite like Menzies to upset Price on Saturday, though not beaten him for a while looks overpriced 2.45 with Ladbrokes2 points
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I rarely bet on Man United as they are the side I support, but I cannot see them losing. That would pretty much be their season done and dusted before October. United have lost 2 in a row, and frankly haven't looked all that good. But they now get to face a team that has yet to win this year, and has scored a single goal in 3 games. If United lose this one, well, I'd fully expect ETH to not bother returning to Manchester and start looking for another job. If odds were higher, I'd stay away, but United -135 I can't see getting any better, so that's a bet for me. United brought in a few players right at the deadline who haven't had time to acclimate themselves just yet, but I feel with a few weeks practice, that can only help. Also, I doubt he'll do it, but United's best 11 does not include Marcus Rashford. In fact, to send a message, I wouldn't even have him on the travel squad this weekend. He's been trash for nearly a year now. And I know they couldn't keep him, but look what Greenwood's done in France for Marseille. Only leading the league in goals so far. United's shipped out better players to appease Rashford. Not saying I would have kept Greenwod, but I'd rather have Elanga right now ffs.2 points
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Good job this is to small stakes Current loss - 16.65 points COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Doncaster 2.25 Caburn 4.25 LADBROKES 4 Epsom Downs 2.35 Marlay Park 3.50 BET VICTOR Doncaster 3.00 Flight 8.50 BET VICTOR Epsom Downs 3.10 Savanna King 4.00 LADBROKES Doncaster 3.35 Night Sparkle 5.00 BET VICTOR Epsom Downs 3.45 Miller Spirit 7.00 BET VICTOR Doncaster 4.10 Promethean 5.00 BET VICTOR Epsom Downs 4.20 Birkin 9.00 BETFAIR Doncaster 4.40 Yaroogh 9.50 LADBROKES 3 Epsom Downs 4.50 Finn Russell 7.50 BET VICTOR Doncaster 5.15 Pellitory 3.33 BETFAIR Epsom Downs 5.22 Between Me And U 5.50 LADBROKES Doncaster 5.50 Xiomara 11.00 LADBROKES 42 points
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Ghost Run in 1st, tieing in with Brig horse tip, only at 11/2 mind you. Got a treble on bold impact (won by a distance), desert flower and night spark, both at donny. Also to open a free bet went with mistral star. Good luck all.2 points
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Agree to a large degree as written but you can never say never and be certain you mean it. If for example the banker was in a generous or defeatist mood in DOND and you had the 1p vs £250k left and he offered £100k instead of the mathematical £125k how many would consider it , the vast majority would take it i'd say. Part of the reason to justify the decision for me would be the fact id argue the first £100k matters an awful lot more than the latter £150k regarding getting what you want or going some way to changing your life , it's the same winning one or two million imo in that the first million means everything to most but the 2nd million would probably hardly ever be used , also all this depends on the age of contestant. On the above example i've no idea what i'd do until the time came but i'd still remain primarily a let it run punter. Think this thread by Harry has been really useful and highlighted a few positives vs negatives but the general consensus is very much to avoid bookmaker cash outs unless it's a needs must decision that's unavoidable.2 points
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William Hill is also offering enhanced odds of 5.00 for Doncaster to win both halves if you're braver.2 points
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I've decided on a small fun bet on Doncaster tonight. They top the table in League 2 and play at Harrogate who appear to be struggling so far. I didn't know that Billy Sharp plays for Doncaster now and I would think that he'll score goals for fun in this league. A quick check shows he's bagged 4 goals already this season. Doncaster 1.75 1 unit William Hill2 points
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Never cash out, no no no never. Wish you could turn it off2 points
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Nigwilliam and one other reacted to waggy for a topic
Newcastle 16.58 £20 Doublethetrouble @15/8 William Hill2 points -
DPWT Irish Open 2024
tonythepaint and one other reacted to fd1972uk for a topic
Took a couple of Irish boys, went Lowry and Power. Guy I quite fancy is Rai. Have actually taken Boyles promo of payout if leading after 3rd rnd. Dad has went Hojgaard and Lawrence. Good luck all.2 points -
Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
The Brigadier and one other reacted to Thornwick for a topic
Also if ghost runs OK in 1st then outlaws grace in 2nd must go well also drawn bad in same race at york As ghost run!!2 points -
Racing Chat - Thursday 12th September
The Brigadier and one other reacted to Thornwick for a topic
Like the ghost run in the first no chance at york drawn high all races needed low draw prob be prisewise😎2 points -
And normality returns! The weekend starts on Thursday with a game in League 2 but we're really back in amongst it on Friday when there's Championship games North and South of the border, Welsh and Irish action and games in Spain, France, Germany and Portugal to name but several. The Premier League returns with 8 games on Saturday starting with a tricky trip to Southampton for a frail looking Man U. The 3:00 games include comfortable looking home ties for Man City and Liverpool where you'd have to be brave to back an upset then Villa/Everton and Bournemouth/Chelsea are the later TV games. All the other domestic and European leagues are back at it along with Brazil's Serie A and the MLS on the global stage. Not much breathing space between hating the International breaks and complaining that there's too much action to look at! Let's see if we can combine to take a few quid out of the bookies' satchels between us. Share your thoughts and bets below.1 point
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DPWT Irish Open 2024
CakeCakeCake reacted to MinellaWorksop for a topic
Two players I like in this one: Guido Migliozzi 50/1 Jordan Smith 50/1 Both with Bet365 in the enhanced win market.1 point -
Procore Tour PGA
CakeCakeCake reacted to fd1972uk for a topic
Went with Clark and McNealy. None of rhe big hitters so could come from anyone in reality, was looking Cole but limited to the 2. Dad has went Todd and Svensson. Good luck anyone taking a pop on the tour.1 point -
Jack's World Series Of Darts Finals
daveg reacted to ThunderDan9 for a topic
I'm going with: DVD 41 Menzies 51 Nijman 51 And yes, Peter Wright must be one of the bigger favorites now, quite a turnaround.1 point -
I queried this with customer support and to be fair to them they have now paid out the 25% boost1 point
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE for a topic
Epsom 3.10 IMPERIAL CULT 7/2 £20 win BET VICTOR1 point -
DAILY LUCKY 15
LEE-GRAYS reacted to The Equaliser for a topic
Lucky15Ref: 535645411 4 Selections 9. Hodler - 10/1Winner - 14:35 Epsom 8. Grateful - 4/1Winner - 15:35 Doncaster 10. Promethean - 5/1Winner - 16:10 Doncaster 5. Qaseem - 13/2Winner - 16:40 Doncaster Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 214.151 point -
Am I doing this betting wrong ?
Nigwilliam reacted to Bang on for a topic
Listen from 6.50 Thousands of bets ?1 point -
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
The Equaliser reacted to Nigwilliam for a topic
Newc 730 Whatwouldyouknow 18/1 £10 ew skybet 5pl.1 point -
1 pt win Griselda 18/1 William Hill 1.50 Doncaster1 point
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3. + Spread the bigger bets £50+ you do have around, 10 ish bigger bets on 5-8 different accs. also put the irish lottery on even if you don't want to.😁1 point
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Probably the final thing worth adding on the topic that may help someone in the same boat as above and let's be honest the outsiders some of you guys go for it's inevitable some time or other. Affordability checks Any of you guys been subjected to this as yet , if not it's a government driven exercise aimed to control gambling losses and applies to winners and losers , what i did many months ago was dump a load of money into 5 bookmaker accounts and restricted myself to £100 a week deposit limit and that's worked out well because my assumption is i'll never have to deposit again for absolutely ages if ever which will keep me under the radar , i personally know a handful of gamblers who've packed the game in due to restrictions of say £100 a week deposit limit when they're punting in £100/£200 units a race , so it's obviously barmy , some companies have added a rule that what you withdraw is deducted from your deposit limit to keep the deposits as a net amount but nowhere near all of them as yet , it's a complete mess in all honesty. Due to that it prevents carrying out my example above , i'm not in the mode of getting involved in 5 figure amounts because i'm primarily a very high odds backer and/or a very low odds layer so i've never any need to get involved in those sums but not forgetting the example above emanated from a £30 e/way acca and just developed into that staking by necessity , so the risk was only ever £60. Without the syndicate a/c i'd never have been able to hedge to win £10k because you'd need a near £50k balance in that scenario , never have that amount in my own a/c but we do in the syndicate in case of that exact scenario amongst other reasons , never a great idea to have those huge amounts as it's just sitting there with the majority untouched and for every £10k you have sitting in that a/c you could be earning £30 interest if banked , so £100k means you're £300 behind the 8ball each month before you even have a bet , but depositing £40-£50k in one hit is now impossible with the introduction of affordability checks so it is what it is. Another point is how to get the £10k lay matched on the exchange , luckily i had over an hour between the final two legs so had time to drip feed , if you just slam £10k on in one click you'll get buttons matched and the price will drift like a barge because it'll freak out other players into thinking the horse has the handbrake on and by asking for the lay you're asking others to back it so best to drip feed to get the best value , that way you're sure to get it all on at a reasonable price relatively speaking. Finally back to the main topic of cashing out , the £14k offer i mentioned looks unbelievably skinny and an insult really but it could easily have drifted to £18k or so as i only glanced once and never looked again but it certainly wouldn't have hit £20k which still would have been paltry , personally think although these cash outs are calculated using software tools when they see big amounts they must use the human touch , so in that scenario they'd look at their book and know the fav would be a big loser anyway at slightly odds on so won't be too concerned about my bet although would like it less than £138k as there didn't look any hope of a rag winning and scooping the lot for them , so surely someone has trimmed the amount to under £20k and said to themselves let's see if the mug will accept this , that's my cynical view anyway. So basically you have three options in cashing out for what we all know to be bad value , hedging on the exchange but with some planning required or basically just letting the bet run , if you choose the best value option when the inevitable day comes i hope some of the above will help prepare at least make some aware , but i reckon some of what i've posted above will be a reason why most would take the cash out as being the worst financial option but by far the easiest with just one click required , let's say my cash out would have peaked at £18k at some time then the horse losing would have meant i was £8k worse off by only laying for £10k but the flip side was being in a position of a guaranteed £10k or £90k which proved to myself i'm more of a let it run that a hedger anyway. Good luck all1 point
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The Equaliser reacted to Mrjol. for a topic
Epsom 16.50 Chips And Rice 10/3 Bet365 £20 win1 point -
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The Equaliser reacted to LEE-GRAYS for a topic
Day 9 +£36 2.22 La Teste De Buch Polivate 12/1 £10 e/w bet3651 point -
Good stuff. Now you know a quicker way atleast1 point
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The Equaliser reacted to MGC for a topic
300 d January 6/1 425 n Basalt to place 3 10/11 440 d Qaseem 5/1 €4 trixie Basalt to place 3 10/11 January to place 3 1/1 Qaseem to place 3 15/8 150 d Toomuchformee to place 4 5/4 225 d Camille Pissarro to place 3 1/1 €4 Accum.1 point -
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I’ve been navigating back to Home Screen which can take 2 or 3 clicks. I’ll be hitting that brand logo now! I only get the home option on tablet when I turn it landscape.1 point
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The Equaliser reacted to MGC for a topic
Dandy and Myal go in. +35 today. Just another 10 of those to clear the red. -3211 point -
The maths are fairly simple (I think, feel free to correct me). Here's the calculation for the screenshot example with the 9/1 last leg loser (based on 9/1 being fair odds). To run 1 Current 1209.20 1088.28 1 winner 13305.20 1330.52 2 winners 3 winners Total 2418.80 2176.92 There's a 90% chance that the last one loses and a 10% chance it wins so the fair value is simply 90% of the return for 3 winners and 10% of the return for all 4. That gives £2418.80 and even a 10% reduction for profit reduces it to £2176.92, so a no brainer not to accept it. You can tweak the 90/10 split depending on the odds and can extend the same principle to 2 or more runners left to run. For Zil to have backed the 9/1 shot it's fair to assume he thinks the price is value so let's say he makes it more like a 7/1 shot then the fair cashout value to him is around £2.7k, so the amount offered is even more unattractive. That's the sort of scenario that will apply to the majority of cash out offers and why the best policy would be never to take it. If there was a bonus on top for 4 winners as mooted by @bymatrix then the offer gets worse still, though it's easy enough to factor that into the "1 winner" return for an accurate comparison. The situation does get a bit less clear cut though where the horse has shortened in price considerably...1 point