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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/13/2023 in all areas

  1. The highlight of the darting calendar is just two days away, and I for one can't wait. Here are my thoughts on the six market leaders and the ante-post bets I've taken: Luke Humphries (3/1 Fav, Various) If you had said three or four months ago that Luke Humphries would go off the 3/1 favourite for the World Championships, I'd have thought you were mad, but Humphries has been in scintillating form recently and rightly takes his place at the head of the market. 'Cool Hand Luke' won his maiden major title at the World Grand Prix in October and followed that up with wins at the Grand Slam and Players Championships Finals in the last few weeks. With semi-final appearances at the World Matchplay and the World Series of Darts Finals also under his belt, it's easy to see why he's the hottest property in the sport right now. And it's not just the sheer amount of games Humphries is winning, but it's also the way he is winning them. At the most recent event, the Players Championship Finals, his average didn't dip below 97 in any of his six matches, and he averaged over 100 in four of them. It was similar story at the Grand Slam, where he averaged over 100 in six of his seven matches. If Humphries continues that form into the World Championships he is going to be very difficult to beat. Are there any negatives about Luke Humphries, well I suppose you could argue that he is yet to reach a semi-final of the World's, so doesn't have that experience, but the way he is playing at the moment means that ultimately he is my idea of the winner. Michael van Gerwen (7/2, Various) Van Gerwen comes into the World Championship off the back of a relatively quiet season by his incredibly high standards, however it would be foolish to right off the Dutchman from going all the way again at Ally Pally. After all 'Mighty Mike' is a three time Champion of the World, and has reached the final on another three occasions in the last eleven years, including last year where he lost a pulsating final to Michael Smith. Van Gerwen has picked up titles this year, most notably the Premier League back in May and the World Series of Darts Finals in September. The signs are certainly there that van Gerwen is getting back to his best, as demonstrated by a 118.5 average when he defeated Ross Smith in the second round of the Players Championship Finals last month - a tournament where he averaged over 100 in four of his six matches. Van Gerwen finds himself in a relatively easy quarter of the draw, so a semi-final berth certainly looks well within the Dutchman's sight. Gerwyn Price (11/2, Various) Gerwyn Price returns to the Ally Pally stage with bad memories of 12 months ago, when he lost in the quarter-finals to Gabriel Clemens after donning a pair of noise-reducing headphones part way through the match. I suspect the crowd won't treat Price any more favourably this time around, and that is a major negative against the Welshman. This season Price has probably played his best darts on the floor, picking up four titles, more than any other player. He also has two Euro Tour titles to his name, but on the biggest stages it's been a disappointing return for 'The Iceman'. Price did win the World Cup of Darts alongside Jonny Clayton this year, but has no major singles title this year. Having said that, Price has posted massive averages in defeat, and he is more than capable of going deep this year. I'm in two minds about Price, on the one hand I think he is a potential finalist, on the other I can see him capitulating in the fourth round against Gary Anderson in front of a raucous Ally Pally crowd. If the tournament was played in Cardiff or behind closed doors as in 2020, I'd make Price favourite ... but it isn't. Michael Smith (14/1, SpreadEx) The current World Champion and number one seed comes into this year's event in very different form to twelve months ago; last December Smith had just picked up his maiden major trophy at the Grand Slam and was full of confidence. Fast forward 12 months and 'Bully Boy' has seemingly lost his way a little, with early exits in his last three tournaments doing little to suggest Smith can win back-to-back World Titles. Smith's lean spell has coincided with a change of darts, and he doesn't look as comfortable with his new equipment, and his trademark 180 hitting isn't there like it was 12 months ago. As the current Champion, Smith will open his title defence on the opening night against either Kevin Doets or Stowe Buntz, and whilst he should make it through, I don't see Smith being a threat at the back-end of the tournament this year. Gary Anderson (14/1, Various) Former two-time Champion of the World Gary Anderson has had a decent season, but it's probably fair to say he's saved his best darts for the floor tournaments. On the Players Championship tour he has reached five finals, winning three of them, and has looked unplayable at times. However, on the stage his form hasn't been quite as good, and he hasn't reached a semi-final of a major since the World Championships two years ago (excluding the World Cup of Darts). He did show a bit of the old Gary Anderson at the recent Grand Slam when dispatching Gerwyn Price in the second round with a 105 average, but I'm not sure he's shown enough on the big stage recently to warrant a price of 14/1 for a third World Title. I've watched the Sportinglife preview that was posted on this thread and they seemed pretty keen on Anderson having a strong tournament, but for me he's not done enough on TV this year; but I am looking forward to a potential clash with Price in round four. Rob Cross (16/1, Various) Another former World Champion is sixth in the betting in Rob Cross. It's been a decent enough season from 'Voltage', with a title in the Players Championship events, another title on the Euro Tour and two titles in the World Series events. But the highlight was probably reaching the final of the Grand Slam, before being outplayed by Luke Humphries in the final. Cross should make it through the early rounds with little issue, before a likely meeting with either Jonny Clayton or Krzysztof Ratajski in round four, a match which I'd expect him to win. Since winning the trophy back in 2018, Cross hasn't been at the latter stages of the World's - I can see that changing this year and fancy Cross to reach at least the quarter-finals and maybe a bit further. Other players I think will go well include Ross Smith, Stephen Bunting, James Wade and possibly Josh Rock; most of these players have already been mentioned in the thread. And it’s already been highlighted that Luke Humphries is priced at an unbackable 3/1 now, so instead of having a bet on the outright winner I've scoured the specials markets for my antepost bets in the hope that one comes in for a nice pay day. Humphries to win his QF, Cross & van Gerwen to reach QFs, Anderson, M Smith, Price, Bunting to reach Round 4 and Littler to reach Round 3 @ 33/1 (SkyBet RequestABet Special) Cross, Price, van Gerwen and Humphries all to reach the semi-finals @ 36.8/1 (PaddyPower QF Winner Accas) R Smith, Cross, Wade, Price, van Gerwen, Humphries and Rock all to reach the quarter-finals @ 861.4/1 (PaddyPower) Van Veen, Searle, Woodhouse, Bunting, Wade & Ratajski to reach round 4 @ 400/1 (SkyBet RequestABet Special - seems to have disappeared from the site now) J Williams to win his quarter @ 50/1 (Coral / Ladbrokes)
    3 points
  2. Southwell 6.30 Em Jay Kay 10/1ew 4pl---4th 9/1 Southwell 7.30 Khabib 8/1ew 4pl---4th 7/1 Southwell 8.00 Kiss My Face 7/1ew 4pl---lost 8/1 Southwell 8.30 Sid's Annie 14/1ew 3pl---2nd 12/1 Returned £6.81 --- £3.81 profit
    3 points
  3. December gold cup Il ridoto 9.0 7/1. Class 120 Fugitif. 8.9 10/1. Class 119 Thunder rock. 8.6 class 92 5pt Ew top 2
    3 points
  4. Favourites The December Gold Cup has been a graveyard race for favourites in recent times. We’ve only seen one winning market leader reward favourite backers since 2000 and that was the Paul Nicholls-trained Poquelin in 2009 (7/2 fav). This favourites trend is also backed up with 60% of the last 20 December Gold Cup favourites also being unplaced. December Gold Cup Favourite: Thunder Rock Trainers Since 1999 we’ve seen many different yards in the December Gold Cup. These include Nicky Henderson (2), David Pipe (2) and Jonjo O’Neill (2). While Venetia Williams won the race in 2014 and Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2013. Of that bunch, Henderson and Pipe don’t have any entries this year, but O’Neill could run Prince Escalus, Williams has Frero Banbou and Easy As That, plus Twiston-Davies has Torn And Frayed entered at this stage. However, the yard with the standout record in the race is Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat handler has won the December Gold Cup five times in the past, with his most recent Frodon in 2016 and 2018. No trainer has won the December Gold Cup more times than Paul Nicholls. Paul Nicholls Runners: Monmiral, Il Ridoto, Complete Unknown and Solo Age While with 14 of the last 22 (64%) aged 6 or 7 this age range is certainly worth having on side. Horses Aged 9+: Torn and Frayed, Do Your Job Horses Aged 4: Madara Horses Aged 6 or 7: Thunder Rock, Monmiral, Il Ridoto, So Scottish, Grandeur D’Ame, Jay Jay Reilly, Complete Unknown, Richmond Lake, Solo & Walk In Clover Form Having a run in the last six weeks has helped over the years, with 90% of the last 20 winners ticking this December Gold Cup trend. Also note horses that have already won over 2m4f (16/20) and head into the race off the back of a solid recent run. This is backed up with 15 of the last 20 winners (75%) finishing in the top three last time out. The final form trend to look out for is a run in that season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup as 45% of the last 20 winners ran in that November Cheltenham race, with 30% of those having been placed in the top five in it too. 25% of the last 20 winners also came here off the back of a win. The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup was run on Saturday 18th November – watch below. Horses That Ran In The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup: Il Ridoto (3rd), Fugitif (4th), Easy As That (6th), Torn and Frayed (Fell) Horses With a Top 3 Finish Last Time: Thunder Rock, Il Ridoto, Fakir D’oudairies, Frero Banbou, Grandeur D’ Ame, Datsalrightgino, Richmond Lake, Railway Hurricane, Solo, Walk In Clover, Le Milos and In Excelsis Deo Horse That Won Last Time: Thunder Rock, Grandeur D’ Ame, Datsalrightgino, Richmond Lake Weight Finally, being a handicap then weight carried is worth a second glance too. 13 of the last 20 winners were rated 141 or higher, but with 9 of the last 11 winners (82%) having 10st 11lbs or less in their backs.
    2 points
  5. 2 points
  6. Forgot to mention, Star Sports have priced up ‘Gerwyn Price to Pop the Headphones on Again During Any Match’ at 8/1 😁
    2 points
  7. I'll try another for today - Lingfield 12.30 Torvar 10/1ew 4pl Lingfield 2.00 Rocking Ends 14/1ew 4pl Lingfield 3.30 Pink Lily 7/1ew 4pl Kempton 5.00 Birkie Boy 11/1ew 4pl Returns £2270.27 bet365
    2 points
  8. Stevens definitely had a great chance and Cahill should have beaten Luca, some shocking frames today! I almost thought about popping along after 10pm but was too lazy, would have been worth it as they didn't finish until 12.30am with Jimmy White winning the decider on the black!
    2 points
  9. Well done to Rivrd who gets back to winning ways in leg 1 Another round of NLHE for leg 2, it's your best 3 over the month so plenty of time to catch up
    2 points
  10. Really sorry for the continued delay, I've been told it should be sorted this week
    2 points
  11. £19 up for the season. Still £34 down for the calendar year so let's see if I can wipe that deficit out next!
    2 points
  12. Zilzalian

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    Not a L15 but you only need 2 in a RFC 🤣
    1 point
  13. I haven't looked at this in much detail yet, but one thing I am sure of is that Humphries is one of the worst prices I've seen in years in any sport. Yes he's in great form, but bearing in mind the rest of the field and the number of matches he has to negotiate there's no way he's a 3 to 1 shot. On top of that, I've not forgotten the match against Lim a few years back. That was an unbelievable collapse and even though it's only one match and he's a better player than he was then, I think horses for courses applies as much in sports as it does in horse racing. What that match told me was that he's not to be trusted on this stage when there's expectation and coming into this tournament the expectation is that he wins the whole thing. I don't see him dealing with that pressure.
    1 point
  14. black rabbit

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    lee mate i hope you noticed "pink lily" today i did have a nibble but forgot to post it as busy busy on christmas doings 😬
    1 point
  15. Taunton. 11.40. Johnny Boom. 5/2@ bet365.
    1 point
  16. tonythepaint

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    If you have no luck today try for a chicken tomorrow.
    1 point
  17. Mrjol.

    Mrjols One Goal

    It's not enough to bank anything yet.
    1 point
  18. LEE-GRAYS

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    Have another bash at getting that turkey 🦃
    1 point
  19. 1 point
  20. Really sorry for the continued delay in these, I'm told it should be sorted this week.
    1 point
  21. Mrjol.

    Mrjols One Goal

    Still going, now with £23.35... Cya in the morning 😴
    1 point
  22. 15.30 Lin : Pink Lily (ew) - 12/1 Hills
    1 point
  23. Not done one of these for a while so - Southwell 6.30 Em Jay Kay 10/1ew 4pl Southwell 7.30 Khabib 8/1ew 4pl Southwell 8.00 Kiss My Face 7/1ew 4pl Southwell 8.30 Sid's Annie 14/1ew 3pl Returns £1,748.30 W Hill
    1 point
  24. The day i needed my nap to win (it broke down and was shot)
    1 point
  25. Fader

    Scottish Open (plus QF)

    Very lucky final frame for Walden. Irritating. Completely fluked a snooker safe. I ask myself who is more boring to watch... Walden at Snooker or Rob Cross at Darts.
    1 point
  26. Fader

    Scottish Open (plus QF)

    In the evening matches, I'm going to take a punt on Matthew Stevens to beat Selby, too. I watched bit of Selby against Sean O'Sullivan yesterday and he was really poor. He only made one 50+ break in the whole match. Stevens beat Selby in the last h2h and hit 4 50+ breaks in his win over Sarkis. I think there is value in the 3/1 2pts Stevens to beat Selby 3/1 Bet365
    1 point
  27. MCLARKE

    BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS

    A bad day with a loss of £55 Total loss £156.05
    0 points
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