Fader Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 We into the final tournament before the big one. Only 8 players this week. I may aswell note the draw : Allen/Ding Carter/K.Wilson --------------------- Selby/Day Murphy/Milkins I'll keep this simple because in my opinion you can rule out half the field atleast. Allen isn't playing well enough and whilst I think Carter is playing the best of the top half, he doesn't have a good record against Kyren or Ding. I hate betting on Kyren Wilson but I think he plays Ding in the semi-final and I reckon over a longer match format that Kyren gets through to the final. I still think he will lose to Murphy though. I didn't fancy Murphy last week because he just wants to play in-front of a crowd. He will want to go into the Worlds in good form. 4pts Murphy to win Tour Championship 7/2 bet365 2pts e/w K.Wilson to win Tour Championship 13/2 betvictor Simeon Borisof, vikki37 and Foo_Fighter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 First match today/tonight is Allen taking on Ding. Ding comes into this after winning the 6-red tournament ofcourse but the bet on him today isn't so much because of that. He beat Bingham, Ford and Un Nooh to win that event so it doesn't twinkle in the sky of achievements. However, Allen isn't playing very well right now and I think Ding should probably be favourite in this one. Perhaps Allen turns it around over the longer format and if he does then he would probably make the final. But, you can only go with what you've seen 5pts Ding to beat Allen 11/10 bet365 vikki37, Foo_Fighter and Simeon Borisof 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 I certainly fancied Ding too so hope he holds on to his lead tonight. I sometimes that fun snooker competition which Hermund Årdalen has been running for years and I've gone for Selby over Ding in the final but happy to see Shaun win it too! Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 6 hours ago, Fader said: First match today/tonight is Allen taking on Ding. Ding comes into this after winning the 6-red tournament ofcourse but the bet on him today isn't so much because of that. He beat Bingham, Ford and Un Nooh to win that event so it doesn't twinkle in the sky of achievements. However, Allen isn't playing very well right now and I think Ding should probably be favourite in this one. Perhaps Allen turns it around over the longer format and if he does then he would probably make the final. But, you can only go with what you've seen 5pts Ding to beat Allen 11/10 bet365 Thanks, backed u on Ding, 5-3 up now and 5 to go. I suspect he'll win it in the end. Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, four-leaf said: Thanks, backed u on Ding, 5-3 up now and 5 to go. I suspect he'll win it in the end. Do hope so. When you think Allen was 2-0 up, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Looks like an easy win now if he goes 7-3 up. Pretty poor crowd which is disappointing but it's strange that we have these players as the top 8 on the one year list. No class of '92, Trump or Robbo and Selby was lucky to squeeze into the lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 @Fader I think you can be cool.. Ding's gonna win. Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 Second day at the Tour Championship and it's Ali Carter taking on Kyren Wilson to find out who will be playing Ding in the Semi Finals. Wilson has beaten Carter in the last couple of matches now. He has beaten him over shorter formats, which really is the majority format with Snooker. You don't really see too much of the longer format now and Carter most certainly doesn't play a great deal of the 'best of 10s' and you'd have to give the nod to Kyren in terms of his experience on both the one table format aswell as the 'best of 21' structure. Carters had some great form recently and won the German Masters but we're being critical, I'm not sure he beats the best players to a high degree. When he played in the Euro Masters he got to the Semi-Finals and actually went out to Kyren Wilson. To get there he has beaten Wu Yize, Grace, Bingham, Cahill and Reanne Evans. He does beat players that he's supposed to but unless it's a best of 7 I just feel like he is vulernable to this longer format and I think Kyren wins. Even the German Masters win for Carter. He beat Carrington, Robbie Williams, handed a walkover and then beat Heathcote, Junxu and Milkins. Only to get Tom Ford in a final. You couldn't ask for a nicer route. I'm going to give both players to hit 2+ centuries a go in this mach also. I do think we'll see atleast 16-17 frames and the bet although the bet i'd really like is Wilson to win and hit 2+ centuries, I've yet to see it so at 9/2 (in my mind) I'm betting on Carter to hit a couple, too. One thing Carter is doing well is score heavily when he's in.4pts K.Wilson (-1.5 frame handicap) to beat A.Carter evens bet365 2pts Both players 2+ centuries 9/2 skybet four-leaf, vikki37 and Simeon Borisof 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
888888 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 I also took Wilson -1,5 frame (prior to reading your post) , hopefully it will be a winner. Yesterday apart from the fact that Allen was atrocious i thought Ding was actually very good so i'll keep my eye on him for the rest of the tournament. Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 hour ago, 888888 said: I also took Wilson -1,5 frame (prior to reading your post) , hopefully it will be a winner. Yesterday apart from the fact that Allen was atrocious i thought Ding was actually very good so i'll keep my eye on him for the rest of the tournament. Yeah, he was to be fair. I think it was 9 50+ breaks and a century. If Wilson gets through then he'll have a tussle on his hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 @Fader backed Kyren Wilson -1.5 in-play along with under 18.5 games in Jessika Ponchet/Amandine Hesse also in-play. I got above 3 times the stake. Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 @Fader will Carter come back now u think being 5-2 down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 19 minutes ago, four-leaf said: @Fader will Carter come back now u think being 5-2 down? Nope. 6-2 now. I just don't see it. 1 century each. Hopefully both bets can come in and both hit another century tonight. amity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 When is intermission? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, four-leaf said: When is intermission? 8 frames. All done until 7pm four-leaf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Is it over soon? How many centuries have been scored? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 43 minutes ago, four-leaf said: Is it over soon? How many centuries have been scored? Was a dire 2nd session. No centuries but a 99 for K.Wilson and 92 for Carter. Ended 1 century a piece but atleast the handicap bet came in I suppose. vikki37 and four-leaf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 Tomorrows match is Murphy taking on Milkins. A good chance for Murphy to get some revenge over Milkins, I suppose after Milkins took the Welsh Open. I was happy for that result of course as I had Milkins but in general Murphy has been awesome for a while now. There isn't any value in backing him tomorrow and although it's tempting to take him on the handicap because Milkins looks to be on the decline with his form, I still think it's best to go with Murphy centuries. If we look at Murphy after that Welsh Open, he went and won the Players Championship. He won three 'best of 11' matches. He didn't score a century against Selby in that 6-3 win but Selby is a good tactical player and his game is pretty much made up of good defensive play. After that he beat Day 6-0 with 4 centuries and Kyren Wilson 6-2 and scored another 2 centuries. When he got to the final he beat Carter in a 'best of 19' final. Won 10-4 and hit 5 centuries. What's important here for me is that he scores well. We all know that but he scores well more often when he plays attacking players. Carter, Kyren Wilson, Day. He faces Milkins tomorrow. A player who is all out attack constantly and probably takes on too much for his own good. I don't think we can look too much on that final because it was a final and it was a bit scrappy. I think tomorrow we'll see a Milkins who goes for everything and with qualification already guaranteed for the World Championships, i think he'll see this event as a bonus for him. Anyway, I'm going on too much now. 2 bets for me on this one : I think we'll see atleast 3 centuries for Murphy tomorrow. the bet on 4 is just a bonus bet if he goes on a rampage in the first session. 4pts Murphy to hit 3+ centuries 11/4 skybet 2pts Murphy to hit 4+ centuries 17/2 skybet vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 I'll also add this bet tomorrow. Murphy hit a 143 in his defeat against Cahill last week. He hit a 140 in the previous round and breaks of 141 and 145 in the final of the Players. He has already hit a 147 this season in the win over Daniel Wells at the Welsh Open. In which he also hit a 145. This was only a month ago. Milkins also despite his recent form being perhaps low par has also hit a 147 this season in the QF of the German Masters against Wakelin. He has also hit a 146 this season. So both players have hit a 147. Both are wide open players who attack and score well. 22/1. I'll have a half point on that. 0.5pts 147 in the match 22/1 bet365 four-leaf, vikki37 and Torque 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Let's hope for another maxi tomorrow then but yeah, I agree with your thoughts about tomorrow's match! Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
888888 Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 I was thinking of going Murphy -2,5 but odds are too low at 1,70 , and the handicap -3,5 is i feel a bit too risky ; if Murphy wins the 1st frame i might bet live Milkins +4,5 four-leaf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 24 minutes ago, 888888 said: I was thinking of going Murphy -2,5 but odds are too low at 1,70 , and the handicap -3,5 is i feel a bit too risky ; if Murphy wins the 1st frame i might bet live Milkins +4,5 Yeah, I think the handicap doesn't really represent any value. If Milkins comes out just going for everything and missing then you can gauge where it's going. If he looks like he is focused and has the right concentration levels then we could see a real great match. This one could be 10-2 or 10-9 amity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Looks like Milky is here to play today as he takes a 2-1 lead, might be a close match now unless Shaun steps it up a level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 Yeah, Murphy keeps getting in but he's not playing well at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 I think Rob has abit of a hex on Shaun 3-1 at the first break and really, without even having to play well. Missing some real shockers. I reckon Murphy needs 5-3 down at worst playing like this. Heisenberg68 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Oof, he's getting a good kicking here as it goes to 5-1 after another routine miss on the black. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charliepie Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Should've been 6-2 so still in touch at 5-3 but I guess Milky would've taken any lead before the start. Fader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 How many centuries scored so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simeon Borisof Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 Still think Murphy wins. He can't be that bad in the second session surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.