harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Price boost Sam Hoskins (whoever he is) to score at any time TRANMERE V NORTHAMPTON 11/10 to 6/4 I've backed him a touch shorter than that elsewhere, him and Appere. Stats suggest a good enough chance at least one of them scores. (Though they've started 31 games together without ever both scoring in the same game!) MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Hoskins scores the opener. Didn't like the odds for the both to score BB (15/2) but did have a couple of quid on Hoskins first and Appere anytime at 18/1. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Current standings from the "official" bets. On a run of 4 losing selections at the moment but have twice had runs of 5 losers so hardly time to throw in the towel just yet! Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 16 41 £820.00 £1,215.50 £395.50 48.23% £1,439.38 £619.38 75.53% 4.08 Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc 28 19 8 13 15 15 23 3 21 11 6 11 15 4 13 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Hoskins scores the opener. Didn't like the odds for the both to score BB (15/2) but did have a couple of quid on Hoskins first and Appere anytime at 18/1. Thanks for that. Didn't even know they'd kicked off so that's a nice £30 banked already today. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Current standings from the "official" bets. On a run of 4 losing selections at the moment but have twice had runs of 5 losers so hardly time to throw in the towel just yet! My rubbish run continues, just 3 winning bets from the last 17. I had West Ham yesterday at over 1 goal at 13/2 so a bit cheesed off with the disallowed goals and penalty turned down. The logic of the bet still stands though, all bets at odds up to 9/2 are showing a profit of 32%, 5/1 to 17/2 68%. I just keep picking the wrong one ! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The logic of the bet still stands though, all bets at odds up to 9/2 are showing a profit of 32%, 5/1 to 17/2 68%. I just keep picking the wrong one ! Pick one and stick to it! Then it's not your fault if you have a loser. Probably best not to be swayed by how your day's racing bets have gone. How's your original option doing (I think it was favourite at HT and FT and >1 goal)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Thanks for that. Didn't even know they'd kicked off so that's a nice £30 banked already today. 9/4 Bradshaw for Millwall is definitely worth nabbing in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Pick one and stick to it! Then it's not your fault if you have a loser. Probably best not to be swayed by how your day's racing bets have gone. How's your original option doing (I think it was favourite at HT and FT and >1 goal)? I'm not too concerned if the bet loses, I am comfortable that it will even out over time. The original option is still showing a good return (ROI 92%) with 21 winning bets from 72 but the last 8 have lost ! . I've excluded Liverpool v Tottenham because that was odds on and the offer is only applicable when the combined odds are greater than evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 9/4 Bradshaw for Millwall is definitely worth nabbing in my opinion. Best price is now 15/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Best price is now 15/8 Superboost 9/4 still showing (though not for me, if you get my drift). 3.15 on exchange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 Thanks. I hadn't seen that, got my £20 on now. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Thanks. I hadn't seen that, got my £20 on now. Sorry, ignorance would have been bliss (or £20 more in the wallet) on that one. I was on him myself at similar odds on the exchange. A BB in Brighton v Everton (not that keen on it bar the fiver matched bet offer). Brighton to win, >3.5 goals and MacAllister to score at 9/2 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Forest to win, Awoniyi to score and Forest >1 card at 5/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Currently wishing I'd risked >2.5 goals rather than the cards but a long way to go yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 I should sort it out earlier, I forgot to put a bet on. However, I would have had it on Southampton at 15/2. Fortunately the Mobilewins Free Bet Monday offer worked out very well, I had the £50 on Southampton at 1.08 and the £20 free bet on over 4 goals at 13/2 so a poor day on the horses has turned out to be a very good day overall. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Close but no cigar as just one Forest card short. I was matched on Awoniyi to score at 3.7 though. Left it to go in play and forgot about it so that was a pleasant surprise. Also landed 13/1 Danoli to score courtesy of @yossa6133 in the Premier League thread to cap a decent day on the goalscorer front. MCLARKE and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 Best winner in my data analysis was Forest over 5 goals at 40/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Best winner in my data analysis was Forest over 5 goals at 40/1 You’re going to need an enormous amount of data to draw meaningful conclusions about 40/1 shots! A practical issue with prices in that range is that you might get a better price elsewhere without the benefit of the 25% bonus. Generally I’m finding that 365 or Hills tend to offer better prices about most of the BBs that I consider and the 25% will usually beat the best price elsewhere. At 40/1 or more it’s possible you’ll get a better price elsewhere which means you’re not getting any advantage from the application of the boost. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, harry_rag said: You’re going to need an enormous amount of data to draw meaningful conclusions about 40/1 shots! A practical issue with prices in that range is that you might get a better price elsewhere without the benefit of the 25% bonus. Generally I’m finding that 365 or Hills tend to offer better prices about most of the BBs that I consider and the 25% will usually beat the best price elsewhere. At 40/1 or more it’s possible you’ll get a better price elsewhere which means you’re not getting any advantage from the application of the boost. In theory the longer odds shots should produce the biggest profits and the data so far backs this up with odds up to 9/2 showing a 41% return, 5/1 to 17/2 a 75% return and odds above 17/2 showing a 206% return. There is a big question mark about the 206% return, it is all driven by one match, take that match out and it is showing a loss. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Real Madrid v Man City tonight. I’m going to wait until line up are confirmed, but I think Haaland to score might be a good one. MCLARKE and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 18 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Fortunately the Mobilewins Free Bet Monday offer worked out very well, I had the £50 on Southampton at 1.08 and the £20 free bet on over 4 goals at 13/2 so a poor day on the horses has turned out to be a very good day overall. I should have read the small print on this one. The winnings on the £130 bonus needs to be wagered 1X. I can live with this but the real balance has to be used first. I have £437 in the real balance so in effect I need to bet £567 to get the benefit of the bonus. Any withdrawals void all bonuses. So somehow I need to bet £567 and try get as much of this back as possible. The safest bet I think is to pick some long odds on shots and hope they all come in. I have 7 days to do this. I might start tonight with £67 on Real Madrid v Manchester City over 0.5 goals at 1.035 Any other suggestions welcome harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Any other suggestions welcome Can you post a link to (or the text for) the specific bonus T&Cs that apply to you? Having had a quick look at their site there seems to be a general suggestion that all bets will be taken from your real money balance first. So if you bet that and win then future bets would still be taken from real money. Without withdrawing the real money I don't see how the bonus get's used as stake! BUT you say that withdrawing would void the bonus! Their bonus T&C look a bit of a nightmare but I don't want to second guess based on what you've said and me looking at their general rules. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Can you post a link to (or the text for) the specific bonus T&Cs that apply to you? Having had a quick look at their site there seems to be a general suggestion that all bets will be taken from your real money balance first. So if you bet that and win then future bets would still be taken from real money. Without withdrawing the real money I don't see how the bonus get's used as stake! BUT you say that withdrawing would void the bonus! Their bonus T&C look a bit of a nightmare but I don't want to second guess based on what you've said and me looking at their general rules. Some of these offers have got so many labyrinthine conditions it's as though they're designed to trip you up so you can't get the benefit of the offer. It should be easy to use these free offers and the fact that it often isn't and you can make a mistake so you don't get the offer is a form of false advertising in my opinion and really shouldn't be allowed. Having said that though, it's not as if bookies are generally too interested in ethics and morals. harry_rag, MCLARKE and alexcaruso808 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torque said: Some of these offers have got so many labyrinthine conditions it's as though they're designed to trip you up so you can't get the benefit of the offer. It should be easy to use these free offers and the fact that it often isn't and you can make a mistake so you don't get the offer is a form of false advertising in my opinion and really shouldn't be allowed. Having said that though, it's not as if bookies are generally too interested in ethics and morals. Amen, a lot of kerfuffle last night over whether Mitoma got an assist (apparently hit the post and MacAllister scored from the rebound). My gut reaction was that's not an assist and SPIN (who I sell player assist minutes with regularly) haven't awarded him one. Having had a look at a lot of firms' rules though they're quite ambiguous and would really benefit from explicitly stating that such an occurrence does not count rather than relying on "Opta adjudicated". Opta's definitions seem to class that as a "Fantasy assist" (presumably as it's counted in certain fantasy football competitions). The one outlier (from my google search) is Sky Bet who seem to have the widest possible definition of assist including woodwork rebounds and winning a penalty or freekick (very much what I'd have classed as "Fantasy assists" rather than proper ones for betting purposes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Uni are best price about both main men scoring tonight and offer a 10% bonus on BBs. I think it's worth combining them at a price you'd probably struggle to match elsewhere. Haaland and Benzema both to score at 6.225 with Uni (shows 5/1 but return is £62.25 to the max tenner stake). MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 21 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I should sort it out earlier, I forgot to put a bet on. Consider this an alarm call! City to win, btts = yes and Rodrygo SoT at 11/2 Given that the two main men are best price elsewhere (and backed in since my earlier post) I'm going for a less likely scorer who is in decent form at the moment (won on him scoring at the weekend in the Cup Final). MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Consider this an alarm call! Back to my standard bet tonight City FT / HT > 0.5 goals Superboost Haaland to score 5/6 - 6/4 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Back to my standard bet tonight City FT / HT > 0.5 goals >1 goal and 3/1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 Just now, harry_rag said: >1 goal and 3/1? Yes you're right, rushed it a bit harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Without withdrawing the real money I don't see how the bonus get's used as stake! BUT you say that withdrawing would void the bonus! I'd have to lose all my real money before I got the bonus. I think the intention is that you need to bet the equivalent of the bonus from real money. Therefore once I have bet £130 from real money then the £130 bonus will become real money. We will see ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.