BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER

[harry_rag]

Newcastle win and to score in 1st half, btts = yes at 21/10

[MCLARKE]

Newcastle FT / HT > 4 goals 9/2

Superboost both teams over 2.5 SOT 10/11 to 6/4

[MCLARKE]

On 5/14/2023 at 11:14 PM, MCLARKE said:

A bit of mean reversion over the last few matches

The return for the over 1 goal is now down to 78%

The overall return by odds range is

Up to 9/2 32%

5/1 to 17/2 58%

Above 17/2 162%

The poor run continues but the returns are still good overall

Over 1 goal 27 wins from 104 bets, ROI 61%

Odds up to 9/2 29%

5/1 to 17/2 35%

Above 17/2 127%

[harry_rag]

14 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

The poor run continues but the returns are still good overall

I'm still running at 31.8% without boost and 56.2% with from the official selections in here and am up £60 to my real money bets. 

One angle that interests me is the anytime goalscorer double in the same game. The logic being that it's a market I tend to do ok in with singles so why not take advantage where I can get two players at a backable price in the same game and the double pays the multiplied odds or better.

I did a quick survey using a couple of Newcastle players last night and there were 3 firms paying better than the multiplied single odds (Hills, 365 and Bet Way) and 6 who payed worse. The worst 3 were 59% (888), 64% (Fred) and 77% (Uni). I've had winners at 16/1 and 10/1 from around 14 attempts so far which is too small a sample to draw anything from but I'll carry on trying it where the opportunities arise. I can also look back over my data to see how it would have performed historically, though that may be a job for the close season.

(Just looked back over this year and it only threw out of 8 instances of 2 players in the same game where both were a qualifying bet. 2 winning doubles would have made for a 15.4 point profit from 8 bets with an ROI of 192.%. Whether best price would be with the same firm is another matter!)

[MCLARKE]

I assume it's going to be fairly quiet now the season is drawing to a close.

 

[harry_rag]

34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I assume it's going to be fairly quiet now the season is drawing to a close.

 

There'll be a few finals etc. but it may well thin out. Whether there'll be any close season Internationals that they'll cover I don't know (U21, Women's World Cup etc.) Certainly nothing today by the look of it.

[harry_rag]

Brighton v Man City tonight. Superboost is >8.5 SoT at evens from 4/6. Probably worth taking (1.64 to back on the exchange but hardly any liquidity). Not sure how to approach this one; Brighton the more motivated of the 2 teams?

[harry_rag]

Just posted this in the EPL thread (along with a couple of MacAllister shot distance bets).

Been pondering it from a Bet Builder angle (365 25% boost offer applies to the game). How about Brighton double chance (win or draw), btts = yes and Brighton >1 goal at 9/4.

Quite fancy the Brighton win angle but will get the draw on side as well, wouldn't want to bet on City not scoring and Brighton might well need (and be capable of) more than 1 to avoid defeat.

Got better elsewhere (5/2 ish) but 9/4 + boost would beat it.

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Just posted this in the EPL thread (along with a couple of MacAllister shot distance bets).

Been pondering it from a Bet Builder angle (365 25% boost offer applies to the game). How about Brighton double chance (win or draw), btts = yes and Brighton >1 goal at 9/4.

Quite fancy the Brighton win angle but will get the draw on side as well, wouldn't want to bet on City not scoring and Brighton might well need (and be capable of) more than 1 to avoid defeat.

Got better elsewhere (5/2 ish) but 9/4 + boost would beat it.

Your Bet Builder sounds good.  It's a very hard match to work out.  I don't think Brighton will be a walkover for Man City by any means.  

What do you think of the Super Boost for over 0.5 corners in the first 10 minutes?  I could see this happening, Brighton could go full tilt and hope for an early goal.  

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

What do you think of the Super Boost for over 0.5 corners in the first 10 minutes?  I could see this happening, Brighton could go full tilt and hope for an early goal.  

Depends on the odds! Spreads pitch it at around 11-12 minutes, probably worth considering at evens or better at a guess. Not a market I’m that familiar with but good chance boost will push it into value territory.

[harry_rag]

Would’ve landed in all 3 of the early Spain games, 2 in 1 and just the 1 in the other 2 games.

[alexcaruso808]

28 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Would’ve landed in all 3 of the early Spain games, 2 in 1 and just the 1 in the other 2 games.

I'll take a gamble on it, Harry.  🤞

[harry_rag]

On 5/23/2023 at 3:03 PM, harry_rag said:

One angle that interests me is the anytime goalscorer double in the same game. The logic being that it's a market I tend to do ok in with singles so why not take advantage where I can get two players at a backable price in the same game and the double pays the multiplied odds or better.

Played Gonzalez and Martinez at 12/1 with Hills in the Italian Cup game, using a fiver freebie. Both prices in the fun zone for a couple of players in decent scoring form.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Brighton v Man City tonight.

@MCLARKE

[MCLARKE]

City FT / HT > 1 goal 11/5

Superboost over 0.5 corners in first 10 minutes 8/13 to 1/1

[alexcaruso808]

Superboost lands easy!  

Edited May 24, 2023 by alexcaruso808

[MCLARKE]

42 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Superboost lands easy!  

Well in the 8th minute anyway, cutting it a bit fine

Looked like a good night when city scored but not to be

[harry_rag]

Gonzalez and Martinez land the 12/1. Trying Griezmann and Correa at 14/1 for Atletico.

[harry_rag]

Oh well, right in terms of keeping the draw on side but Brighton were one goal short. Landed the double in Italy and did the Spanish pair in singles as well so not been a bad night.

[harry_rag]

Looks like no game tonight unless anyone knows better.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Looks like no game tonight unless anyone knows better.

Superboost Man U v Chelsea both teams > 2.5 SOT

[harry_rag]

I stuck a fiver on United win and Martial to score at 7/2 when they were the standout 13/5 earlier (see goalscorer thread). Used the daily 10% boost to edge the odds upwards.

[MCLARKE]

Coventry v Luton today

Also Irish 2000 Guineas 3.40 Curragh

Superboost over 2.5 SOT each team 4/5 to 6/4

[MCLARKE]

Luton FT / HT > 1 goal 9/2

[harry_rag]

Morris to score, Coventry double chance (win or draw) and <6 goals at 17/2

Morris a value bet at 13/5 for me, Coventry maybe underrated by the markets, goals element more of a makeweight (given the 3 part minimum) but Play Off finals tend towards the unders. 

Hills have all of Gyokeres, Hamer, Morris and Adebayo to have a SoT doubled to 6/1 which looks just big enough for an interest (all bar Adebayo are encouragingly high in the SoT/90 rankings).

[harry_rag]

Carlisle v Stockport at 1:30 today.

[MCLARKE]

Stockport FT / HT > 1 goal 9/2

Superboost 30+ goals in EPL 1/3 - 1/1

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Superboost 30+ goals in EPL 1/3 - 1/1

Over 1 goal in all 10 of the games doubled up to 6/1 with Hills. Not bad for an interest in all of the action. I make it that it's landed twice in the last 8 seasons (on the final day) with all bar one of the others falling on a single game.

[harry_rag]

Lets go Carlisle Double Chance, <5 goals and Kynami-Gordon to score at 9/2 (Better elsewhere but for the boost).

[harry_rag]

Should just back all these play off games to be draws!