harry_rag Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Watkins to score, >2 goals and btts at 10/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 13, 2023 Author Share Posted August 13, 2023 Liverpool FT /HT > 1 goal 3/1 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 13, 2023 Share Posted August 13, 2023 >2.5 goals, Liverpool double chance and Salah to score at 3/1. Better elsewhere without the bonus. I'm on at 7.4 courtesy of Hills weekly double odds boost that can be used on any BB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Portsmouth v Exeter tonight (the very mention of the fixture sets the pulse racing) and the England v Australia semi final tomorrow morning. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 4 hours ago, harry_rag said: Portsmouth v Exeter tonight Exeter DC, btts and >2 goals at 10/3 @MCLARKE in case you hadn't noticed this one. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Cheers Harry although I'll probably wish I had missed it ! Portsmouth FT / HT > 1 goal 13/5 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 England Women FT / HT > 1 g 4/1 Man City FT / HT > 1 g 23/20 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I was tempted to nick Sporting Sam’s corners and cards BB as it’s not bad at 365’s odds but I’ll go for the draw with both Kerr and Russo registering at least 1 SoT at 5/1. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Man City to win, btts and Haaland SoT at 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 25 90 £1,800.00 £1,826.16 £26.16 1.45% £2,157.70 £357.70 19.87% 4.09 Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc 59 49 17 33 34 28 42 6 36 28 12 21 28 9 25 3 61.02% 57.14% 70.59% 63.64% 82.35% 32.14% 59.52% 50.00% 16 consecutive losing selections (at average odds of just under 3/1!) see me barely clinging onto profit at actual odds but with an ROI just short of 20% with the boost. I think I'll press on to the 100 bet mark and call it a day for the purpose of this thread. I've not really given much thought to the recent selections given that I don't get the bonus and can't get much on with 365 anyway so it's starting to feel like a bit of a waste of time now. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 You've got to wonder if it's worth it in the end. I mean they're not a charity are they. They must think even with the boost the odds are in their favour. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, Torque said: You've got to wonder if it's worth it in the end. I mean they're not a charity are they. They must think even with the boost the odds are in their favour. Maybe more about getting punters hooked on them perhaps and doing a lot more without the bonus. Those punters piling up the components to get huge odds would be up against it even with the boost. I’d like to think I could beat the odds with the aid of the boost and I’d have a proper go at it if I could get on. As it is I’m wasting my time by either doing a lot of study for bets I can’t place or sticking bets up for the sake of it that are unlikely to do that well. Outside of “silly” long shot accas I’d like to think most markets were beatable with the luxury of a 25% boost on all winnings. One more point, 365’s BB offering is one of the better ones, along with Hills and, to a lesser extent, Sky Bet. Some firms offer rank bad value by taking a huge margin out of the combined odds. You’d be lucky to beat some firms with double the odds, so poor are their prices. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 13 hours ago, harry_rag said: One more point, 365’s BB offering is one of the better ones, along with Hills and, to a lesser extent, Sky Bet. Some firms offer rank bad value by taking a huge margin out of the combined odds. You’d be lucky to beat some firms with double the odds, so poor are their prices. Yes I agree, the 25% offer is one of the best offers out there, in theory it should be relatively easy to make a profit out of it although in practice it hasn't been quite so easy and I'm currently down £125 on football. Most of my metrics are showing positive returns although if I take out the outlier (the Arsenal v Southampton match) it's a different picture. The over 1 goal option which I have been sticking to shows a gain of 9% with the bonus and a loss of 8% without the bonus which feels about right. Choosing the favourite improves the return to 18%. Probably the best 25% offers are on the horse racing because there is no compounding effect of the bet builder and you would probably lose 5 - 10% without the bonus. I have tried a couple on the golf without success, I suspect the overround here is a bit too high. I have had some on tennis and cricket with mixed success. harry_rag and Torque 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 Tonight Forest v Sheff U Forest 5/2 Always good to have another reason for the blunts to lose harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 6 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Yes I agree, the 25% offer is one of the best offers out there, in theory it should be relatively easy to make a profit out of it although in practice it hasn't been quite so easy and I'm currently down £125 on football. I meant the overall BB offering rather than the boost offer! Your bet tonight is 11/4 now but would only be 12/5 with 888 despite the prices for the individual components being very similar. The difference would typically be more pronounced if you included "player props" such as anytime goalscorer or SoT. Ignoring the bonus 365 have one of the best BB offerings in terms of the price you're likely to be offered for most bets. If it was 888 (and one or two others) offering the bonus I'd say it wouldn't be worth the effort as, even with a 25% boost, you'd be doing well to break even. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Forest win, >1 goal and Gibbs-White SoT at 13/5 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 19, 2023 Author Share Posted August 19, 2023 Man U 11/4 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 >3 goals, btts and Antony at least 1 shot at 6/4 Hills giving an opt in £2 freebie to use on a BB in this game, I've gone with the >3 goals and btts plus Maddison assist and Son to score at 14/1. Not the greatest price but, as I say, it's a no strings use it or lose it freebie. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 19, 2023 Author Share Posted August 19, 2023 England 5/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: England 5/1 Draw at half time, England to lift the trophy, Hemp at least one shot at 9/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Draw at half time, England to lift the trophy, Hemp at least one shot at 9/2 Are those your thoughts @harry_rag or what you deem value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Torque said: Are those your thoughts @harry_rag or what you deem value? For the purpose of this thread it’s just putting up a bet that I might have if I had the 25% boost and recording the return with and without the boost. See my thoughts the other day on the merits of carrying on with it. For what it’s worth I’m just in front to the initial odds on selections in this thread and I’m back in front to my real money bets on BBs after the 14/1 on Mbuemo and Wissa today. I’ve taken the 50p allowed on this bet and I’m not sure if you could actually back that combo anywhere else. MCLARKE and Torque 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 12 hours ago, MCLARKE said: England 5/1 It was actually Spain 5/1 (they were slight favourites) I'll be glad when it's done, I'm sick of hearing about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Broke the losing streak on Friday then started a new one over the weekend. Just in front with an ROI of 2% after 93 bets, boosted to 20.6% with the aid of the 25% on top. Had a 12/1 double on Sargent and Barnes for Norwich which, after the win on the "Brentford 2" yesterday, puts a different perspective on my BB results (up £50 for the year and £100 for the season to real money bets). I think it's fair to say that anytime doubles have done most of the heavy lifting there which perhaps makes the point that you're more likely to be able to beat the odds with BB if you're able to build them around bets where you have an existing edge. I think I could make a profit with the luxury of a 25% boost on every bet (most semi-savvy punters could say the same) but could probably expect to make a modest loss otherwise unless I focus on the area where I might have an edge (i.e. goalscorers). Either way I think it makes sense (after bringing the century up) to just bet on games of my own choosing rather than finding a bet on those games where 365 are offering a boost that I don't qualify for and won't offer me as much as a quid stake half the time. Torque and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 I thought I was back in profit when Spain had a penalty to go 2-0 up but it was not to be. I'll plug on with my bets as my analysis shows that after 84 matches it would be difficult to make a loss with any strategy although I've somehow managed it ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 21, 2023 Author Share Posted August 21, 2023 Arsenal 11/5 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Done a bit of analysis on all my BB bets this year. Overall I've had 304 bets (quite a few duplicates in there due to limited stakes) and am 40.49 points up with an ROI of 2.71%. Better than losing but hardly spectacular. I've broken that down into 3 categories: General (various elements but NOT including a player to score at anytime) From 140 bets I've lost 260.97 points with an ROI of -35.11%. Now that is spectacular, but not in a good way! It would take more than a 25% boost to get that anywhere near to break even. General including one or more players to score at anytime; I'm 125.58 points up from 107 of these bets with an ROI of 23.52%. That's a pretty marked difference even allowing for the relatively small sample size. Anytime multis (Mostly player to score doubles barring a fiver lost on 3 losing trebles, with no additional elements included); I'm 175.87 points up from 59 bets with an ROI of 80.27%. 2 winners at 14/1 and 12/1 over the weekend obviously put a gloss on that but I'd still have been in front without those. The second "general" category included 8 bets that featured 2 or more players to score with one winner where they both did. If you add those bets into this category you get all bets including anytime multis and the profit reduces to 144.37 points with an ROI of 54.55% I think the obvious takeaway from that is not to go anywhere near a bet builder unless it includes an anytime goalscorer that I'm confident offers value! It would also support the notion of playing the doubles where the stars align for both to be on offer at a decent price with the same firm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 21, 2023 Author Share Posted August 21, 2023 It looks like you have a good edge on the anytime goalscorer. Is there any system you use or is it just a feel for what are good / bad odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Both! There's the "A" system that I post on here (overall data sample ROI 12.4% but just dipped below 10% on here after a poor weekend), the "B" system that I don't post (was just in front but having a poor month) and the studied bets where I make a decision based on prices/stats. I was running at around a 5% ROI overall but it's likely to be less than that at month end unless I can stage a bit of a rally. The weekend has been poor for single bets yet I got lucky landing the two doubles at decent odds. Currently I count those as bet builders rather than anytime scorer bets but I might have to change that to make the results look a bit better! The systems are entirely based on using the spread prices for player goal minutes to arrive at indicative fixed odds prices (i.e. no player stats data is involved). Within certain parameters the spread prices seem to be highly predictive (once you calibrate for the fact that they're higher than the "true" values and hence profitable to sell). You could operate a quick mental arithmetic system that is showing a double digit ROI at present. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I've gone for at least one 1st half goal, Nketiah SoT and both teams shown a card at 7/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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