harry_rag Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: trouble is, when you choose btts = no, you can be assured both teams will go on a scoring spree 🤣 There’s always Sod’s Law to intend with! I notice “yes” seems to have landed less than half the time when I’m looking at a lot of games though. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 24 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I think btts = no is landing quite often as well! The FT / HT BTTS result has only won 4 times out of 44 with a loss of 44% What would you suggest as a simple bet builder that includes BTTS = no ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The FT / HT BTTS result has only won 4 times out of 44 with a loss of 44% Team to win, btts = no and >1 goal maybe? Gives you all the wins to nil barring 1-0. Or maybe just don’t play the btts element! MCLARKE and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Team to win, btts = no and >1 goal maybe? Gives you all the wins to nil barring 1-0. Or maybe just don’t play the btts element! Looks a poor bet at 13/10 based on Arsenal’s home results this season though! alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Arsenal have won 12 out of 15 home games this season and both teams scored in 10 of them. However they are playing the bottom placed team so this could follow the script of 5-0 v Forest or 4-0 v Everton. There have been goals galore in those wins, all bar two going over 3 goals. I'm not sure what I'll put up as my 365 offering yet but it would have been Arsenal win, >2 goals and Jesus to score if the price wasn't so poor. I got better than 2/1 elsewhere so, at 7/5 with 365, it would have lagged that even with the extra 25% on top. They could easily win by 2 or more goals or at half time and full time given the gulf in class but as they've only done each of those in 7 out of the 12 wins it's not an absolute gimme, Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 Arsenal FT / HT + > 1 goal is 5/6 so doesn't qualify for the bonus I'll go for the > 2 goals at 23/20 Super boost is Arsenal and Jesus to score 1/1 to 6/4 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 A bit rushed but as it's only a paper trade I'll go Arsenal win/>2 goals and Saka >1 SoT at 13/5 for the 365 offer. Gone with the Jesus to score option mentioned above for an actual bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 And I almost put a 1st minute Southampton goal in my selections! alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Well there'll be no shortage of goals if Arsenal do win this. The halftime element might be looking a bit iffy though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Well that was a surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 Indeed, it was looking like Southampton at 95/1, that would have made a mess of my stats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 minute ago, MCLARKE said: Indeed, it was looking like Southampton at 95/1, that would have made a mess of my stats Wouldn’t it have paid out with them being 2 up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 You are right, I forgot about that. It does go to show the benefit of that bonus The over 1 goal at 22/1, over 2 goals at 28/1 and over 3 goals at 60/1 would have been paid out Also the BTTS and over 3 goals at 45/1 would have been paid out I assume the over 4 goals at 95/1 wouldn't have been paid out It does change my stats completely The best odds range is now over 33/1 at a ROI of 190%, albeit with only 2 winners Over 1 goal is 169% Backing the away team is 164% Backing the 2nd favourite is 115% harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 Despite these impressive returns I'm now managing to show a loss on these bets ! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I assume the over 4 goals at 95/1 wouldn't have been paid out I suspect it would, I think the win element is simply settled as a winner as soon as they go 2 up and the rest run as normal. You’re going to need a massive sample now! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 You are probably right, the terms and conditions are "For multiple bets and Bet Builder bets, if a team you have backed on the standard Full Time Result market goes 2 goals ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run." So I'll add the 95/1 win into my data I also assume the over 5 goals is also a win. The odds on this were 200/1 ! The over 33/1 odds range is now showing a ROI of 908% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Time for a lucky 15 🤞 MCLARKE and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: You are probably right, the terms and conditions are "For multiple bets and Bet Builder bets, if a team you have backed on the standard Full Time Result market goes 2 goals ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run." So I'll add the 95/1 win into my data I also assume the over 5 goals is also a win. The odds on this were 200/1 ! The over 33/1 odds range is now showing a ROI of 908% Out of interest what are the top 3 bets by frequency that have a positive ROI, i.e. the ones that there have been most off and that are in profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 Fulham v Leeds today After yesterday I should probably go for Leeds over 5 goals at 50/1 ! It's another tight one with Fulham just favourite I'll stick with Fulham FT / HT > 1 goal at 15/4 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 A bit rushed as wasn't expecting it to be this game. Btts = yes, >3 goals and Moreno SoT is 3/1. 4.65 with Hills is only just shy of that after the 25% boost. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 25% bonus on the 3.35 at Ayr Also super boost on the 2.40 at Newbury CHALDEAN 6/5 - 7/4 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 12 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Time for a lucky 15 🤞 3out of 3 at moment Brighton tomorrow £8.88 c/o will let run will try this again with the over 2 goals and over 7 corners but in a treble or a double for bigger stakes MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Had a go with 2 tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 8 hours ago, harry_rag said: Out of interest what are the top 3 bets by frequency that have a positive ROI, i.e. the ones that there have been most off and that are in profit. Do you mean the ones with the most wins ? If I split it into favs and 2nds favs then Fav, over 1 goal, 10 from 24, £303.18 profit Fav, over 2 goals 6 from 24, £176.88 profit 2nd Fav, over 1 goal, 6 from 24, profit £1,215.00 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Had a go with 2 tonight 1-1 sampdoria corners up 😢 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 Doing well with these need Brighton for lucky 15 will try these this afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 23, 2023 Author Share Posted April 23, 2023 22 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Also super boost on the 2.40 at Newbury CHALDEAN 6/5 - 7/4 Funny how things turn out sometimes I was cursing Frankie Dettori for falling off the horse at the start but BET365 refunded the £10 as a free bet which I put on the last at Nottingham which won at 15/2 Today's match is Brighton v Man Utd Brighton are 6/5 favourite which surprises me but then again what do I know about football, I support Sheff Wed ! LEE-GRAYS and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Brighton are 6/5 favourite which surprises me Me too, I think the market has overreacted to the extent that the value lies with Man U today (sorry @LEE-GRAYS) I'll go Man U to qualify, shot monster Antony >1 shot and >0 cards to be shown at 12/5 I had a first with this one, where adding a component to the bet builder reduced the odds! United to qualify was 6/5 and if I added >0 United goals it would have increased to 11/8. Instead I added the Antony shots which increased it to 9/4 but, after that, the United goal would have reduced it to 19/10! Surprisingly I passed on that one. 12/5 for a single card seems more appealing that 11/4 for at least 2. When I looked at Hills for comparison neither 1 nor 2 cards added anything to the price. Time to get back in the winners enclosure or I may start to conclude that these bet builders are not necessarily an easy path to unfettered riches! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Me too, I think the market has overreacted to the extent that the value lies with Man U today (sorry @LEE-GRAYS) I'll go Man U to qualify, shot monster Antony >1 shot and >0 cards to be shown at 12/5 I had a first with this one, where adding a component to the bet builder reduced the odds! United to qualify was 6/5 and if I added >0 United goals it would have increased to 11/8. Instead I added the Antony shots which increased it to 9/4 but, after that, the United goal would have reduced it to 19/10! Surprisingly I passed on that one. 12/5 for a single card seems more appealing that 11/4 for at least 2. When I looked at Hills for comparison neither 1 nor 2 cards added anything to the price. Time to get back in the winners enclosure or I may start to conclude that these bet builders are not necessarily an easy path to unfettered riches! Sorry I went I need over 2 goals and over 7 corners for lucky 15 to come up in game not Brighton to win got the other 3 up yesterday a couple of post up 👍 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Doing well with these need Brighton for lucky 15 will try these this afternoon Cashed out this bet was affected by the aggro at psv only still need 2 corners monza but feel the gods might be against still nice profit harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.