BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Watkins is a best price and (for me) backable 12/5 anytime with 365 which would make him a viable leg of a bet builder.

Only a passing thought given shortage of time but I do like >2.5 goals, btts and Watkins and Isak at least 1 SoT each at 13/5. Had the offer applied and given. Bit more time I’d have probably gone for that.

Winner on Watkins for a net profit despite Newcastle blank letting the BB down. Whilst I did actively fancy that outcome in this game it illustrates a point that occurred to me when doing the bet last night.

My gut feel is that btts = yes should be played selectively because it's what most punters will back, to the extent that it is probably much poorer value than the "no" side of the bet. Most mug/casual punters will favour the bet that can potentially win right up to the final whistle rather than one that can be down inside 5 minutes.

I considered it last night before opting for >2.5 instead. Obviously if one team wins and the other team scores there will be at least 3 goals in the game. I'd favour >2.5 goals at a shorter price over btts almost every time. You'll win more often and, I suspect, get a better return. People tend to overestimate how many goals there are in games and, possibly to a greater extent, how many games both teams score in.

Even though I fancied it today I'd have left it out if I had a better feel for which way the game would go. I considered Villa double chance but could fairly easily see a Newcastle win as well. I'd have played one of the teams double chance over btts if I had a strong enough view.

 

[MCLARKE]

You are probably right. The over 1 goal / FT / HT bet is the most profitable in my small analysis. It is obviously a bet where you could have lost at half time so don't get the thrill of the full match.

I was initially betting on the BTTS to score because of the 90 minute interest but as you say this bet is probably over valued.

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I was initially betting on the BTTS to score because of the 90 minute interest but as you say this bet is probably over valued.

I'm not saying never play it but always worth comparing it to the >2.5 price to see if the difference seems worth it. Win and >2.5 will always be a winner when win and btts is but gives you all the 3-0 and up win to nil scorelines as well.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

West Balboa is the first leg of my lucky 15 so could be a big day !

Irish Point won the second leg at 7/1

Midnight River won the 3rd leg at 17/2

Just need Corach Rambler in the national for a £900 payout for a £3 stake

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm looking at Man City vs Leicester and will probably do a BetBuilder.  Man City to win, > 1 goal in the match...not sure what else.

Very hard to find anything worthwhile in this game, some obvious angles at prices that look plenty short. City win/>3.5 goals and Haaland 2+ SoT at 17/10.

365 offering the best prices generally but, without the offer of a 25% boost on top, this doesn't appeal for a real money bet.

[alexcaruso808]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Very hard to find anything worthwhile in this game, some obvious angles at prices that look plenty short. City win/>3.5 goals and Haaland 2+ SoT at 17/10.

365 offering the best prices generally but, without the offer of a 25% boost on top, this doesn't appeal for a real money bet.

I'm going to skip it for today in favour of a few Grand National bets. Hopefully the 25% boosts will be back next week.

[harry_rag]

Winner earlier for what it's worth (I took the 37p allowed which doesn't really constitute "real" money)!

Noticed 365 were best priced about Benzema so decided to have a small one on that game as my only interest in the evening games. This was instructional in terms of the seemingly random amounts I can get on.

I was only allowed 27p on R Madrid win, >1 goal and Benzema >1 SoT at 11/5 but was allowed £5.25 at 13/8 when I swapped Benzema to score for the SoT element.

So 365 are unduly fearful of my expertise on the SoT market! 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Midnight River won the 3rd leg at 17/2

Just need Corach Rambler in the national for a £900 payout for a £3 stake

Nice one @MCLARKE I took Noble Yeats because of your analysis so that's paid for a few drinks  I actually ended up backing it twice as the price drifted like a barge before the off before coming back in - not sure what that was all about.

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

Nice one @MCLARKE I took Noble Yeats because of your analysis so that's paid for a few drinks  I actually ended up backing it twice as the price drifted like a barge before the off before coming back in - not sure what that was all about.

Yep the Nationals a strange one for the betting, I think a lot of "once a year" punters take SP so prices often shorten in the last few minutes. The overall overround at SP was 149% !

[LEE-GRAYS]

[MCLARKE]

No red card ? @LEE-GRAYS

[Torque]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep the Nationals a strange one for the betting, I think a lot of "once a year" punters take SP so prices often shorten in the last few minutes. The overall overround at SP was 149% !

I saw about the overround. That was some overround. The bookies can't lose when it's like that can they.

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

No red card ? @LEE-GRAYS

I just need to ween him off btts now! 

[harry_rag]

The RP tip for this game is >2.5 goals and btts = yes. Heeding my own words of "wisdom" I'll swerve the btts aspect. I'll take United double chance, >2 goals and Antony >2 shots at 11/4

Let's not burden Antony with the obligation of getting any on target let alone in the net, but hope his tendency to fire at will continues.

[harry_rag]

You having a go at this one @MCLARKE?

[MCLARKE]

Just waiting for my horses to run before deciding what profit I need to make it a profitable day

 

[Torque]

You make it sound so easy @MCLARKE

[MCLARKE]

Just now, Torque said:

You make it sound so easy

Not really. It's a bit like chasing losses really ! 

It's what we are always warned against

However I think psychologically I go to bed felling better if I've made a profit, even if it's just £1

[alexcaruso808]

23 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Just waiting for my horses to run before deciding what profit I need to make it a profitable day

 

Did you not have any winners  over the weekend?    😂

[MCLARKE]

Bugger, I left it to late

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Did you not have any winners  over the weekend? 

Indeed but I take it day by day

[alexcaruso808]

4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Indeed but I take it day by day

 i know mate, well done for yesterday btw.   

 

United are 1 - 0 up already and Antony has had two shots, just need two more goals.    

[harry_rag]

2 losers since the last update (both Man U games) so 9 from 22 so far.

£440 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £541 for a £101 profit with an ROI of 22.95%. Return with winnings boost applied = £631.25 for a £191.25 profit with an ROI of 43.47%.

2 winning games out of 5 on the "unofficial" bets; 17/10 in the City game and 12/5 and 4/1 in the Boro game. Also the Watkins anytime bet at 12/5 made for a profit on the Villa game.

Leeds v Liverpool tonight.

[MCLARKE]

Super boost Bamford + Salah over 1 shot on target 5/6 to 6/5

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Super boost Bamford + Salah over 1 shot on target 5/6 to 6/5

Not very "super" and probably fair at best would be my take on that one. (And I think the bet you're referring to is for them both to get >0.5 SoT i.e. at least one each, rather than >1).

[harry_rag]

I'm struggling to get much of a feel for this game (a reminder that one of the weapons in a punter's armory is the ability to not have a bet). I'll stick something up for the sake of a theoretical tilt at the 25% bonus offer. I have played Hill's enhanced odds of 3/1 Liverpool win, Salah to score and >2 goals (only 19/10 as a 365 BB). There's also a fiver freebie matched bet offer with Hills so I'll find something for that (effectively gives you double odds or 2 bets for the price of 1).

[harry_rag]

For the 365 offer I'll go >3 goals, btts = yes (I know!) and Salah >1 shot at 6/4

Probably the least enthusiastic I've been for any bet I've offered up in here. I do fancy a game with a lot of chances and the Salah shots element stood out among the various shots (on target) options.

[MCLARKE]

It's Monday so I've taken advantage of Mobilewins bet £50 get a £20 free bet offer. I look for a bet as close to evens as possible and ended up with Celta Vigo to win the 2nd half at 2.09.

I won a small amount on racing today so potentially I could be down £46.70 if my football bets lose.

My go to bet of Liverpool HT / FT and over 1 goal at 15/8 just meets the target

 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Not very "super" and probably fair at best would be my take on that one. (And I think the bet you're referring to is for them both to get >0.5 SoT i.e. at least one each, rather than >1).

You are right, I did mean 0.5. I'm not sure what the true odds are on these super boosts but overall they've proved very profitable. I even had one on UFC which I know absolutely nothing about.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

You are right, I did mean 0.5. I'm not sure what the true odds are on these super boosts but overall they've proved very profitable. I even had one on UFC which I know absolutely nothing about.

Void anyway I guess. 5/6 to 6/5 didn't seem generous compared to some of the boosts you mention and if you looked at their individual SoT prices on BF 6/5 didn't seem great for them both to have one.

18 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

For the 365 offer I'll go >3 goals, btts = yes (I know!) and Salah >1 shot at 6/4

Done that at Hills with 1 SoT instead of 2 shots (Hills don't include shots as an option) at 2.96. Only worth a bet on the back of the matched freebie.