BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER

[alexcaruso808]

I went for > one goal, draw or middlesborough, over 2 cards, Akpom over 2.5 shots.

[MCLARKE]

29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I was struck by the low goals totals in Bristol City's recent games (all of the last 12 under 4 and 10 of them under 3). Boro's games a bit higher scoring but I'm not sure I'd want to take a tilt at 5 or more goals.

I assume that's all factored into the odds

[harry_rag]

32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I assume that's all factored into the odds

Well, pretty much everything is to some extent, not least the firms' knowledge of how their punters like to bet. I think you're going up against two things here, punters preference to bet on higher numbers of goals and your own inclinations with regards to how the favourite/longshot bias works. There's a risk that the price you're taking is so far short of the true odds that it diminishes the value of the 25% boost.

The market pitches the true odds of 5 or more goals at somewhere around the 13/2 mark or a 13.33% chance. Obviously you've got the risk of the wrong team winning, it being a draw or the team not being ahead at the break.

Both teams have played 40 league games this season with Boro involved in 6 that went >4.5 and City involved in 5 (reasonably in line with the 13.33% figure). Boro won 3 and lost 3 and were ahead at the break in 2 of their victories. City won 2, lost 2 and drew 1 and were behind in just 1 of the games they lost. So you're betting on Boro to accomplish something they've managed twice in 40 games and City to suffer a fate that has only happened once in 40 games. I guess my gut feel is that the price is too short and doesn't necessarily become attractive even with the aid of a 25% boost.

Having spouted all that I'm no doubt guaranteeing you a winning bet and myself a large serving of humble pie! 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Boro double chance, Boro >1 goal and Akpom to score at 9/4

This bet has landed in 15 out of the 30 league games that Akpom has started this season. I'm not saying that proves my bet is an even money shot and yours should be 20/1 or more but I think it's indicative of the respective chances of us having found a bet that is at least close to fair odds with a chance of being value with the aid of a 25% boost.

 

[alexcaruso808]

BTW, aren't Bet365 sneaky in that you only get your boost if you click on the button?  I bet loads of people place these bets and just assume their winnings boost is incorporated into their final payout amount.  

[harry_rag]

I've done a bit of goalscorer analysis betting for this game, will post over in the Championship thread. Teams up shortly.

[MCLARKE]

22 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Having spouted all that I'm no doubt guaranteeing you a winning bet and myself a large serving of humble pie! 

You are obviously far more knowledgeable about football than me and there is a lot of logic to what you say. We all have different approaches and given my limited knowledge I'm basing my bets on what has happened before., albeit the sample size at the moment is quite small. At least then I only have myself to blame when it goes wrong.

There have been 34 bets in the 9/1 and 16/1 range and 4 have won for a profit of £600.

Having said that betting over 4 goals would have resulted in a loss of £415 so perhaps not the right bet after all.

[MCLARKE]

11 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

BTW, aren't Bet365 sneaky in that you only get your boost if you click on the button?  I bet loads of people place these bets and just assume their winnings boost is incorporated into their final payout amount.  

Yes, I've made that stake a couple of times, fortunately they both won so I got double winnings.

[Torque]

7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

You are obviously far more knowledgeable about football than me and there is a lot of logic to what you say. We all have different approaches and given my limited knowledge I'm basing my bets on what has happened before., albeit the sample size at the moment is quite small. At least then I only have myself to blame when it goes wrong.

There have been 34 bets in the 9/1 and 16/1 range and 4 have won for a profit of £600.

Having said that betting over 4 goals would have resulted in a loss of £415 so perhaps not the right bet after all.

The trouble is @MCLARKE at those odds the sample size isn't anywhere near big enough to suggest you're on to a good thing. Carrying on at those odds could easily see you giving the 600 quid back plus more on top. 34 bets wouldn't even be instructive if the odds were all below even money.

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Torque said:

The trouble is @MCLARKE at those odds the sample size isn't anywhere near big enough to suggest you're on to a good thing. Carrying on at those odds could easily see you giving the 600 quid back plus more on top. 34 bets wouldn't even be instructive if the odds were all below even money.

You are right althought everything else being equal the higher odds will be more profitable. I think when I did some analysis a few years ago the favourite longshot bias wasn't as strong as it is in horse racing.

[Torque]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

You are right althought everything else being equal the higher odds will be more profitable. I think when I did some analysis a few years ago the favourite longshot bias wasn't as strong as it is in horse racing.

You could be right but it's going to take a lot more than 34 bets to reveal that. You'll need hundreds of bets at those odds before you can say that you're getting value. The 34 bets you've placed so far that have given you a good return could be the result of nothing more than positive variance - better known as good luck.

[Torque]

Let's put it this way. If you know nothing about a sport - and I know nothing about horse racing - then it's always going to be better for your pocket to bet at shorter odds. That way you'll lose less and that's always a good place to start when trying to make money betting.

[harry_rag]

34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

You are obviously far more knowledgeable about football than me

Probably to nowhere near the extent that you are far more knowledgeable about racing than me. I'm certainly not one of those people who knows the game inside out and has a solid grasp of every team's tactics. But I have been betting on it for a long time and have, hopefully, learnt something along the way. I probably know more about the markets than the sport itself!

I am, to a large extent, a (fairly basic) stats and systems punter rather than an expert on any sport, I'm sure you can have success applying your racing approach to football but it won't be seamless. As @Torque says you need much more data. When you talk about the AE for, say, all horses at 16/1 plus you have a large data sample and all the "population". With football you have a much smaller sample and are not considering every runner in the relevant price range. There are multiple bets on any game in the 9/1 to 16/1 price range and I doubt you'd do well backing them willy nilly.

Keep going but just remember how long it (presumably) took you to get a foothold into betting on horses successfully.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

Let's put it this way. If you know nothing about a sport - and I know nothing about horse racing - then it's always going to be better for your pocket to bet at shorter odds. That way you'll lose less and that's always a good place to start when trying to make money betting.

We have to remember that with this bet there is an additional edge for the higher odds. As @harry_ragpointed out

"Given that the bonus is 25% of the winnings it also struck me that you're getting more a of an odds boost the bigger the price is, e.g.

£20 at evens returns £45 equating to 2.25 (+12.5%)

£20 at 2/1 returns £70 equating to 3.5 (+16.67%)

£20 at 3/1 returns £95 equating to 4.75 (+18.75%)

So there's an argument for favouring bigger prices assuming the original prices all offer the same amount of value in relation to the "true" odds."

[Torque]

8 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

So there's an argument for favouring bigger prices assuming the original prices all offer the same amount of value in relation to the "true" odds."

I'll be surprised if they do. Time will tell if you keep a record of the bigger odds bets for long enough. As I think I've already mentioned, my guess is that the higher the odds are the worse they are, so that even with the boost applied some bets will remain -EV.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I went for > one goal, draw or middlesborough, over 2 cards, Akpom over 2.5 shots.

I assume that won? What was the price?

Just the Akpom goal missing for me, I make that only the 4th time Boro scored 2 goals with Akpom not among the scorers compared to the 15 times where it landed.

@MCLARKE probably relieved that Boro spared him a winner.

[alexcaruso808]

21 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I assume that won? What was the price?

Just the Akpom goal missing for me, I make that only the 4th time Boro scored 2 goals with Akpom not among the scorers compared to the 15 times where it landed.

@MCLARKE probably relieved that Boro spared him a winner.

it was 2.90, so I'm pretty happy.  

[MCLARKE]

Of the bets I'm recording only the Bristol City HT, FT, > 1 goals was a winner at 7/1

This now makes the range 5/1 to 17/2 range the most profitable with 8 wins from 37 and a profit of £620 (84%)

The other odds ranges are 

1/1 - 9/2 16%

9/1 - 16/1 73%

> 16/1 0% (0 wins from 70)

[harry_rag]

16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Of the bets I'm recording only the Bristol City HT, FT, > 1 goals was a winner at 7/1

Based on the 2-0 payout I assume? I forget about that with not being eligible! What are the bets you’re recording out of interest?

22 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

This now makes the range 5/1 to 17/2 range the most profitable with 8 wins from 37 and a profit of £620 (84%)

Is that pre or post boost?

[MCLARKE]

8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Based on the 2-0 payout I assume? I forget about that with not being eligible! What are the bets you’re recording out of interest?

Yes, that early payout is an extra benefit, it also worked for Arsenal yesterday.

The bets I'm monitoring is for the team to be winning at half time and full time and then over 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals, 4 goals and 5 goals. Also for the team to win, both teams to score and over 3 goals. So for each match I'm recording 12 potential outcomes.

At the moment I've got the results from 15 matches (180 potential outcomes).

[MCLARKE]

14 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Is that pre or post boost?

Results are post boost

[MCLARKE]

Man City V Bayern Munich tomorrow

I'll see how my horse betting goes before I decide whether to play safe or go big

[harry_rag]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Results are post boost

I’d be interested in what the results are without the boost for comparison. Also, how many of the 12 bet types are showing a profit and what’s the best return?

[MCLARKE]

By far the best return is the over 1 goal with 10 wins from 30 bets and a profit of £883.81 (147%)

Over 2 goals is 18%, 3 goals is 7%, 4 goals -76%, 5 goals -100%

BTTS -19%

I think the over 1 goal benefits to a certain extent from the early payout

I'll have a look at the stats without the boost later

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

By far the best return is the over 1 goal with 10 wins from 30 bets and a profit of £883.81 (147%)

I assume that's based on backing both teams with the bonus applying to the returns? That was sort of the reason for my question as my understanding is that it's one bonus per game so backing multiple selections with the bonus applying wouldn't be possible. It might be a red herring to focus too much on the results in that way whereas the returns to basic odds will give you a clearer idea of which bets are closest to fair odds. Today's bet incoming.

[MCLARKE]

You are right.

I could look at splitting it down to home or away team, favourite or 2nd favourite but then the sample sizes become even smaller.

 

[harry_rag]

Man City to win, >1 goal and Haaland >1 SoT at 13/5

This one looks decent from a value perspective (though only showing at 5/2 now I've had my 20p on it)! 

Given they were only offering 6/5 if you swapped Haaland scoring for the 2+ SoT element or 9/5 with 3+ shots in it's place my gut feel was that 2+ SoT was the better option at the prices.

Having trawled the other firms this bet is 2/1 in a place and shorter everywhere else so I think there's an element of 365 dangling a bit of a carrot with the way they're valuing the Haaland on target element. Most firms seem to give similar weight to him scoring as having 2 or more SoT.

Hills are offering double the odds on a bet builder up to a fiver today. I've played the above with Haaland scoring in place of the SoT element. They were only 31/20 for the 365 bet but 9/5 for him scoring which is doubled up to 3.8.

888 have an offer of a fiver free footy bet if you have a tenner on a CL bet builder. I've played the 365 combo with them at 2.95 out of curiosity to see whether I qualify for the freebie (I suspect not).

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

888 have an offer of a fiver free footy bet if you have a tenner on a CL bet builder. I've played the 365 combo with them at 2.95 out of curiosity to see whether I qualify for the freebie (I suspect not).

Another one I lost a long time ago, I managed to make £500 out of the before they pulled the plug

[alexcaruso808]

@harry_rag I'm guessing your bet will be void if Haaland isn't starting?

 

[MCLARKE]

I've now looked at the returns without the bet boost

Odds

< 5/1 -1%

5/1-17/2 51%

9/1-16/1 41%

> 16/1 -100%

A bit of a strange mix, less than 5/1 looks about right, the rest I would expect some reversion to the mean

Goals

> 1 105%

> 2 -1%

> 3 -12%

> 4 -80%

> 5 - 100%

BTTS -33%