harry_rag Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Today's match is FRANCE v NETHERLANDS I've gone with France, BBTS and over 3 goals at 5/1 France to win, Mbappe to score and to have >1.5 SoT at 21/10 I think France will win, and Mbappe won't be phased by it being his first game as captain. Incidentally, I if wanted to have a bet on that I'd be allowed a whopping 38p on! Zilzalian and MCLARKE 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: I think France will win, and Mbappe won't be phased by it being his first game as captain. Incidentally, I if wanted to have a bet on that I'd be allowed a whopping 38p on! Could be worse, with football bets with Sky I'm allowed 10p ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 It's a very bad idea to win. If you lose all the time you can stake what you like MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Cracking start to the match by France, if I'd stuck to my original plan I'd have collected £68.75 profit after 8 minutes @harry_ragwould also have collected £52.50 profit As it is I just need the Dutch to score to collect £125 profit harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: As it is I just need the Dutch to score to collect £125 profit I'm sweating on another Mbappe SoT to land the princely sum of 80p! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 80p is 80p more than I got ! Torque and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 9 hours ago, MCLARKE said: 80p is 80p more than I got ! Unlucky with the last gasp penalty being saved though. Let me know when the next one is available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Another winner so I'd be 3 out of 5 so far. £100 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £157 for a £57 profit with an ROI of 57%. Return with winnings boost applied = £181.25 for an £81.25 profit with an ROI of 81.25%. Nice to be lucky when not allowed any money on. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 Today's match is ENGLAND v UKRAINE England, BTTS and over 3 goals is 7/2 harry_rag, alexcaruso808 and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 England to win, England >2.5 goals and Saka >1.5 SoT at 4/1 About time I had a tilt at slightly bigger odds! This is a maximum stake bet for me, that maximum stake being 10p! alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, harry_rag said: England to win, England >2.5 goals and Saka >1.5 SoT at 4/1 About time I had a tilt at slightly bigger odds! This is a maximum stake bet for me, that maximum stake being 10p! Looks like a winning bet, what you gonna buy with your winnings? MCLARKE and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 8 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Looks like a winning bet, what you gonna buy with your winnings? Decisions, decisions! Did have a £2 freebie with Hills to use up that I stuck on same thing but with >2.5 cards added. At least I was matched just before the off on Saka anytime at 3.45. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 @MCLARKE's original strategy would have been successful just now, but skinny odds so debatable whether the boost would have pushed the price into value range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 Yep, would only have been evens. It would have been succesful in each of the last 3 matches and would have produced a profit of £197. The most profitable option would be the over 2 goals option, this would have produced a profit of £224 despite today's loss. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 A loss last night so I'd be 3 out of 6 so far. £120 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £157 for a £37 profit with an ROI of 30.83%. Return with winnings boost applied = £181.25 for a £61.25 profit with an ROI of 51.04%. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 I decided to have a go at this myself, I think this looks pretty good. I just put 98p on to round off my Bet365 bank ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 32 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I decided to have a go at this myself, I think this looks pretty good. I just put 98p on to round off my Bet365 bank ?? I assume that's just a boost on specific betbuilder rather than the 25% offer on a bet builder of your choice? (It's not 25% which is, I suppose, a clue!) I can't find out which game the offer applies to so I'm reliant on @MCLARKE flagging the relevant games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 27 Author Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I assume that's just a boost on specific betbuilder rather than the 25% offer on a bet builder of your choice? (It's not 25% which is, I suppose, a clue!) I can't find out which game the offer applies to so I'm reliant on @MCLARKE flagging the relevant games. Yep, tonight's match is REP OF IRELAND v FRANCE France, BTTS and over3 goals is 9/2 alexcaruso808 and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: I just put 98p on to round off my Bet365 bank ps no need to show off just because you can get such stratospheric stakes on! MCLARKE and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Not convinced Ireland will score (France on a 4 game clean sheet run in qualification games). Did consider adding in <5 goals as the final part but gone for France to win/Mbappe to score/Griezmann SoT at 2/1. Had my 56p on so I've got some skin in the game! alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 27 Author Share Posted March 27 48 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Not convinced Ireland will score I've covered this a bit with the mobilewins monday offer of Bet £50 and get a £20 free bet. I've taken France to win to nil at 5/4 harry_rag and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 hours ago, harry_rag said: I assume that's just a boost on specific betbuilder rather than the 25% offer on a bet builder of your choice? (It's not 25% which is, I suppose, a clue!) I can't find out which game the offer applies to so I'm reliant on @MCLARKE flagging the relevant games. You're right - my apologies. No idea where I got 25% from that!! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 Tonight's match is SCOTLAND v SPAIN SPAIN, BTTS and over 3 goals is 6/1 harry_rag and alexcaruso808 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Spain win/both teams receive a card/Olmo >0.5 shots at 17/10 I'm not convinced Spain win this but it's no fun trying to hit minimum of evens with Spain double chance! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 4 hours ago, harry_rag said: Spain win/both teams receive a card/Olmo >0.5 shots at 17/10 Olmo not starting so I'll swap Joselu >1.5 shots at 7/4. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 Not a good start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Looks like even Spain double chance would’ve been a loser! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Maybe Spain will make a comeback....any minute now I can feel it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 Perhaps I should have gone with idea of backing the home team Scotland / Scotland over 1 goal pays 11/1, over 2 16/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Perhaps I should have gone with idea of backing the home team Scotland / Scotland over 1 goal pays 11/1, over 2 16/1 That's recency bias @MCLARKE In the long run it'll always be better to back the favourites as the odds will be closer to fair, meaning that with the boost there's a chance to achieve +EV. Generally speaking, the bigger the bookie odds, the further away from fair odds. Can't remember which game it was during this international break, but it was one of the big teams against one of the minnows and the draw odds at the bookie were about 33 to 1. On the exchanges it was about 80 to 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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