harry_rag Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I'd go for Havertz to score anytime, Chelsea to score in both halves and Chelsea to win at 9/2 (pending confirmed line ups) Not saying I'm convinced that becomes value with the boost but it appeals to me if I had use of the boost and fancied an interest in the game. Havertz decent at 9/4 (they're the only firm willing to lay him at 2/1 or more), increase to 4/1 for Chelsea scoring in both halves seemed reasonable, win not adding much to the mix but they should prevail if scoring twice. I'd have made use of the Chelsea +2 handicap at 1/50 but that market doesn't seem to be an option within the bet builder. veredreuven251 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Out of interest, do you have a record of your strike rate, returns and ROI for these bets so far or you only starting to record it now you're posting them on here? Originally the bet only required 2 legs so I went for the favourite to win by over 1 goal. There were 77 bets, 39 won and the profit margin was 25%. Since they've changed it to a minimum of 3 legs there have been 21 bets, 8 have won with a profit margin of 34%. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I'd stick to the winning recipe then rather than vary it based on my idle musings! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 I am tempted to go for the higher odds but the fear of those long losing runs puts me off. I'll keep a record of the next few and see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: I'd go for Havertz to score anytime, Chelsea to score in both halves and Chelsea to win at 9/2 (pending confirmed line ups) At least Havertz scored to end a bit of a losing run in the goalscorer system thread! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Today's game is BARCELONA v REAL MADRID Over 2 goals 9/2 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I'll put up both teams to score, both shown a card and Benzema to score at 11/4 as my bespoke offering for comparison. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Not a good start for me, RM score after 9 minutes with an OG Another one doesn't make it past half time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I’d just be needing a Benzema goal now though I suspect you’d get better than 11/4 at half time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 I might be better off going for a win, BTTS and over 3 goals, at least it would keep me entertained for the full 90 minutes. Not much going on footie wise for a couple of weeks so it might be a while before the next offer. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I might be better off going for a win, BTTS and over 3 goals, at least it would keep me entertained for the full 90 minutes. True that it would eliminate the risk of the bet being down at halftime in terms of giving you the interest. The results so far have been really good but maybe too good in terms of a 25% boost applied to presumably worse than fair initial odds. Maybe the thread has unfortunately coincided with a bit of regression to the mean! They might do the offer on some of the International games I suppose. Given my recent poor run and how I usually fare on International games I might take a break myself! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, harry_rag said: True that it would eliminate the risk of the bet being down at halftime in terms of giving you the interest. The results so far have been really good but maybe too good in terms of a 25% boost applied to presumably worse than fair initial odds. Maybe the thread has unfortunately coincided with a bit of regression to the mean! They might do the offer on some of the International games I suppose. Given my recent poor run and how I usually fare on International games I might take a break myself! You are right, the results had been better than expected so a run of 4 losses is not totally unexpected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 Surprisingly, they are scraping the barrel with a League 1 match although it is Barnsley v the mighty Sheffield Wednesday I'll stick with over 2 goals at 7/1 BTTS and over 3 goals is 11/1 Wednesday now unbeaten in 23 matches harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Barnsley in decent form too and the RP fancy them. My paper trade alternative is 17/10 for Barnsley double chance, btts and under 3 away goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Barnsley in decent form too and the RP fancy them. My paper trade alternative is 17/10 for Barnsley double chance, btts and under 3 away goals. It wouldn't seem right to back against the owls ! Out of interest what is a double chance, I'm a novice when it comes to football betting harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 23 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Out of interest what is a double chance, I'm a novice when it comes to football betting Backing a team to win or draw (as opposed to draw no bet where the draw is a push). Essentially the same bet as the +1 European handicap or the +0.5 Asian handicap but there are no handicap options in the 365 Bet Builder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Backing a team to win or draw (as opposed to draw no bet where the draw is a push). Essentially the same bet as the +1 European handicap or the +0.5 Asian handicap but there are no handicap options in the 365 Bet Builder. Ta. All seems a bit complicated. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Ta. All seems a bit complicated. I had to chuckle at that when I think about the level of analysis you do on racing and how I feel when I'm trying to get my head around some of that! I suppose getting the draw onside and other more complex handicap options are a bit like weighing up whether to bet win or each way and how much of the price to trade off for extra places. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 On 3/21/2023 at 10:33 AM, harry_rag said: Barnsley in decent form too and the RP fancy them. My paper trade alternative is 17/10 for Barnsley double chance, btts and under 3 away goals. A winner so one out of 3 so far. £60 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £54 for a £6 loss with an ROI of -10%. Return with winnings boost applied = £62.50 for a £2.50 profit with an ROI of 4.17%. This is just a paper trade experiment to see how I might do if this boost was available to me. The expectation is I'd lose at the original odds but the question is whether the 25% boost could edge the selections into profit. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 Next match is Italy v England Another tight match with Italy 7/4 and England at 13/8 for the win Using my previous logic I would back England to win the match and 1st half and over 2 goals in the match at 7/1 Or back the home team at 15/2 ? Or back BTTS instead of the over 2 goals at 10/1 for both teams ? I am open to persuasion harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 I’ll cobble one together later! I’m thinking either England win or at least avoid defeat and there won’t be that many goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 I’m going close to minimum odds for this one; England double chance (win or draw), <4 total goals & Saka >0.5 shots at 21/20. You can get 11/4 if you go England win or you could push the odds out by making it a Saka shot on target. Italy lacking firepower, games between the teams tend to be low scoring, Saka in form and hard not to see him getting a single shot off. The RP make a decent enough case for the away win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 7 hours ago, harry_rag said: I’m going close to minimum odds for this one; England double chance (win or draw), <4 total goals & Saka >0.5 shots at 21/20. Thanks Harry, I've gone with this at evens, it will be nice to get a win after 5 losses. Also taken £10 on the super boost, Harry Kane > 1.5 shots on target, was 11/10, now 2/1, I assume this is now good value, you can lay it on Betfair at 2.84. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 Looking good, England winning 1-0 and Saka 1 shot after 22 mins Just need Kane to pull his finger out ! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 Always the way. If I'd stuck to my original plan I would have collected at 5/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 That was a tense 40 minutes but England held on and didn't concede or score the 4th goal. A £25 profit after those 5 losers. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 On 3/18/2023 at 5:32 PM, harry_rag said: I'd stick to the winning recipe then rather than vary it based on my idle musings! Don’t say I didn’t warn you though! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 Too true. I would have won £175 if I'd stuck to my original plan or £250 if I'd taken the BTTS option. Anyway, I've crept back into profit, £2.50 after 7 matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Today's match is FRANCE v NETHERLANDS I've gone with France, BBTS and over 3 goals at 5/1 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Another winner so I'd be 2 out of 4 so far. £80 staked (£20 max per boosted bets), return to initial odds = £95 for a £15 profit with an ROI of 18.75%. Return with winnings boost applied = £108.75 for a £28.75 profit with an ROI of 35.94%. I'll take a look at tonight's game. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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