Racing Chat - Saturday 31st December

[The Brigadier]

Following a day’s break the ITV cameras are back for five races at Newbury with the feature race being the Challow Hurdle which Paul Nicholls is looking for his fifth success in the race, having previously won it with the likes of Denman, Bravemansgame and Stage Star. There’s also a brace of modest handicaps from Warwick and one on the all-weather at Lingfield. Eight in total and here are my early thoughts and selections for all eight.

 

Newbury 1.15

Eleven chasers line up for this 2m 92 yard class 3 handicap chase. The most interesting horse by far is the Venetia Williams trained six year old Gamaret who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since last February and is making his chasing and handicap debut. He could quite easily blow these all away or bomb out! Chris Gordon’s Only Money has claims although the handicapper appears to just about have his measure whilst a more interesting runner is last year’s winner Gallic Geordie who’s 9lb higher than that success and whilst he should run well for trainer Samuel Drinkwater he may need softer ground. No outsiders take my eye and I’ll take a chance on the aforementioned Gamaret for Venetia and Charlie Deutsch.

 

GAMARET 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Warwick 1.35

Thirteen go to post for this class 4 3m 2F handicap hurdle which is not as competitive as the numbers would suggest. The likely favourite is the Philip Hobbs trained Langley Hundred who is chasing a hat trick following victories at Exeter and Ludlow under 10lb claiming conditional jockey Elizabeth Gale. The horse has only risen 6lb for that brace of wins and should be there at the finish today. He beat Dan Skelton’s Farmers Gamble 4 1/4L last time and on 4lb better terms should get closer today. Christian Williams’ Lord Snootie makes his handicap debut and is one to watch in the market but Williams is very much out of form at present and is passed over. Not a great race by ITV standards and I’ll stick with the proven form of Langley Hundred to small stakes.

 

LANGLEY HUNDRED 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Newbury 1.50

Next up is a class 2 handicap hurdle which has attracted fourteen participants. The two most interesting runners are both making their handicap debuts. Harry Fry’s Lady Adare, who’s missed a couple of recent engagements down to the ground and is unbeaten in four starts, a bumper for Micky Hammond and three novice hurdles for Fry. She could be well treated off of 130. The other possible blot on the handicap is the Skelton’s Pikar who impressed when winning at Chepstow last time out in a novice hurdle and has been well backed since the 48 hour declarations were made. Lucy Wadham’s Martello Sky looks favourably handicapped and can’t be ruled out off of his last winning mark whilst top weight Soaring Glory is back over hurdles and not out of this either. There’s others with chances as well but I’ll take Lady Adare, who trainer Fry has spoken well off in a recent stable file, to take advantage of a possible lenient handicap mark.

 

LADY ADARE 2 points each way @ 6/1 bet265 1/5th 1234

 

Warwick 2.10

Only nine go to post for this class 4 three mile conditional jockeys’ veterans’ handicap chase. Dan Skelton’s Go Steady heads the market following a solid success at Lingfield in a similar race at the beginning of the month under today’s pilot Tristan Durrell. He’s two from five at the track and with just a 4lb rise should be thereabouts although is scant value at around the 15/8 mark. Tom George’s Smuggler’s Blues would have probably finished runner up to the eventual winner Certainly Red at Wincanton last time but for crashing out at the second last and is another with claims despite a 3lb rise. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s Midnight Moss is the one I like here mind. The ten year old is quite lightly raced for one so old ( he turns eleven next week) having run only 13 times and ran a fine race, his first since a wind operation and a 232 day break, when runner up to Rocky’s Treasure at Doncaster three weeks ago and with that run under his belt now can go one better in what looks a very winnable race.

 

MIDNIGHT MOSS 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Newbury 2.25

The Coral Racing Club Mandarin Handicap Chase has a long tradition and has attracted a decent sized field of sixteen staying chasers this year. It has a real open look about it with certainly no stand out bets. Venetia Williams’s Laskalin is up 5lb for his Ludlow victory a month ago and is one for the short list along with Jamie Snowden’s Tallow For Coal who was last seen at Lingfield in November beating Pemberley 7 1/2L. The latter re-opposes on 5lb better terms and can get closer for the Emma Lavelle team. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ top weight Undersupervision will need to jump better than he did at Chepstow on his re-appearance but that is a distinct possibility. At a monster price I’m going to play Alex Hales’ Fagan. He’s very well handicapped on some of his back form at this Berkshire track. He flopped on his re-appearance in the Becher Chase but that course isn’t for everyone and after a years break it’s quite easy to forgive him that run. He’s in the veteran stage now and turns 13 years of age next week but with Hales having a couple of winners over Christmas plus the booking of Harry Cobden is worth a small stakes each way bet with enhanced place terms.

 

FAGAN 1/2 point each way @ 66/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Lingfield 2.40

ITV are showing this one mile class 3 fillies handicap which looks open enough with chances given to all six runners. Wadacre Grace comes into this in decent enough form having finished runner up on his last two starts at Kempton and Southwell and holds claims whilst fellow three year old Morgan Fairy is not without a shout. With stakes kept small it may be worth a small wager on Ed Walker’s top weight Sunset Bay. The four year old filly hasn’t been seen since September and is 0 from 2 on the all weather but she’s been running mostly in listed and group company this year since winning two handicaps on the turf in the Summer. Rob Hornby gets the call up and could be the answer to this tricky handicap.

 

SUNSET BAY 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365

 

Newbury 3.00

The feature race of the days entertainment at Newbury is the Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle a grade one contest run over 2m 4 1/2F which has attracted its biggest field this century with fourteen going to post including two representatives from Ireland. A warm favourite is Paul Nicholls’ Hermes Allen who’s looked a smart prospect winning at Stratford and Cheltenham this winter. Nicholls likes to run his best novice hurdler here and saddles Her see Allen. He must have every chance with the only thing not to like is his price at around the 5/4 mark. There’s plenty of promising sorts in opposition here including Nicky Henderson’s Cheltenham winner Attacca and Fergal O’Briens’ Ascot winner Crambo. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Idalka Bihoue, who was a very easy winner at Worcester in October, falls into the ‘could be anything’ bracket and is a big priced possible. The horse I want to be with though is the Skelton’s Vicki Vale, one of two mares in the race. She coasted home at Hereford in November on her hurdling debut and although there was little depth to the contest it was the visual performance that stood out with her trainer stating afterwards that ‘she could be anything’ and ‘she looks very very good’. The owners Bullen-Smith and Faulks’ West Balboa was second in this race last year and they have a decent chance to take the first prize this year round. Make sure you find a firm that is paying the 4th place (William Hill, bet365, Skybet and Boylesports).

 

VICKI VALE 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 3.35

Ten line up for this class 3 2m 6F 93 yards novices’ handicap chase. It’ll take a good one to take the first prize with five last time out winners starting. Tea For Free did us a favour last time at Uttoxeter under Lily Pinchin and has claims again despite a 6lb rise. Fergal O’Brien’s Nothin To Ask is chasing a hat trick following wins at Chepstow and Doncaster but has risen 16lb for that brace of wins. Malinello won after a long layoff and a wind operation at Newcastle last time for Ben Pauling and should be thereabouts. A wide open contest although anyone that saw Nicky Henderson’s top weight Bold Endeavour win at Leicester last time will want to be with him again despite a 9lb rise in the weights. That was his first run for the master of Seven Barrows having joined from Laura Morgan and although it was gained on a unseasonable good to firm terrain he has shown last season he copes with slow ground and he’s the selection under Nico De Boinville.

 

BOLD ENDEAVOUR 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365

 

[kensland]

Double. 

12.03. Uttx.  Goshhowposh       4/1   3rd

1.35. War.   Langley Hundred      7/2.    PU

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by kensland

[Gary66]

1-15 Newbury gallic Geordie 

3-35 Newbury Surrey quest 

Backed both ew  this morning best of luck always gazza

[richard-westwood]

1150 ling 

Maysong   7.8  6/1 

Arctician    7.8 12/1 

Gidwa      7.4 

Algheed     7.2 

Strange one   ?....maysong is an obvious choice but can't see why fir the life of me the computer had put arctician joint top when he looks out of form and maysong beat him well last time .....just gotta trust the rating ....5pt ew top 2 ....1pt rev forecast 

[jonjo]

Saturday already!

11.50 I've taken 4.9 and 1.9 about the hat trick seeking Starshiba. The gelding carries another 3lb penalty taking his rating to 75, still seems lenient for a horse that has won off 82 in the past. I do realise that Gidwa beat Starshiba and is  2lb better off but that was before the selection hit form. He only ever wins on the all weather and could go in again tomorrow.................................................................................given a lot to do, got the place at 1.87? 

12.10 Grivetana is down in class after finishing runner up in a Class 1 (Gerry Fielden)  last time out, the third placed has franked the form and 2.3 is a fair price.................................................................................................................................................................got that one all wrong ?

12.25 Kateira looked a really useful prospect winning on hurdling debut winning quite easily and obviously there is more to come, trading around the 2.9 mark on the exchanges, may have a saver on Vic Peak depending how the prices go nearer the off. - Sat morning, Kateira a non runner si I've gone in for Victorias Peak at 4.2 and 2.1 2Tbp...........................................................................................................................2nd place at 2.1, better than nowt as they say..?

1.00 Its a race where School for Scandal can race from his proper mark having been out of the handicap last time out but still managing to finish second, just held, the front two were 19 lengths in front of the third and he must have a chance at a price tomorrow, currently 9/1 best with the books or 11 on the exchanges, win and place bet.........................Sat morning, School for Scandal has halved in price (even after the non runner) I've an average of 10 and have traded out for an average of 5 for an average profit of .98 of a point regardless of the result, common sense to me, always look after your stake.?

1.08 Still just a 5 year old so hopefully more to come from Secret Trix, won last time out after being upped in distance to 3 miles for the first time, tomorrows race is deeper but he's only ben raised 3lbs so at around the 5 mark could be a good win and place offering......................................................................................................................................................................................hit 1.15 in running (lay off price reached) but had to settle for a place once again, place price I got was 1.95?

1.30 Another upped just three pounds for a first win over a new distance is Vision of Hope, won over 12 furlongs last time out, tomorrows race is no harder so a good showing is hoped for, win and place. Uther Pendragon is looking for a 4 timer so it wont be easy. On the exchanges at around 5.5........................................................................................................................................... finally a winner WON returned at a Bfsp of 5.12, 5.5 was better, placed at 2.13?

2.10 Raised 3lbs for falling last time is Smugglers Blues, he was in with a fir chance when falling three out at Wincanton, tomorrows race is no more difficult so is worth chancing at around the 11/2 mark and drifting and around 7.6 on the exchanges, win and place................got that one totally wrong ?

2.40 Never out of the first three on the all weather Morgan Fairy has a real chance in this Class 3 at Lingfield, 3.7 on the exchanges but will probably have a saver on Sunset Bay at around the 13 mark, down in Class for the first time since finishing 2nd in a Class 3 HCap off a higher mark 16 months ago.................                                                                                                                ................lots of late money for this one, nice to get the early 3.7 WON......?

3.00 A Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, Hermes Allen looked one to follow after winning a Grade 2 race unchallenged, beating a 129 rated Elliott horse so a rating of 142 looks very fair, he has of course got to give 7lb to some of his rivals tomorrow but he really did look one to follow, trading around the 2.58 mark..............................................................................................................................WON very easily, looks a nice prospect and nice to get the early 2.52.?

3.15 I'm hoping that Levi Williams has learnt his lesson, he should have won on Nubough at Lingfield last time out, gave the horse far too much to do, had him far too wide and only just failed, he's been raised 2 lbs for that but this race is no harder. Trading at 4.8 or 7/2 with the books.

 

As always I'll have lay off prices in running.

 

Good luck tomorrow everyone. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by jonjo

[richard-westwood]

205 ling 

High velocity 8.2 7/1 bet365

Alcazan     8.0  10/1 

Vespasian   7.6 

Emperor spirit 

Good prices top 2 I'll try 5pt ew both and 4x 1pt doubles top 2 in both races 

[Tedthewolf]

1.00 Warwick- TEMPLIER 15/2 4places

1.50 NB-NINA THE TERRIER 9/1 4places

2.10 Warwick-GWENCILY BERBAS 6/1 3 places

2.25 NM-UNDRSUPERVISION 15/2 5places

0.15 PTS E/W L15  Bet 365   4.5pts invested

Running Total  Profit + 43.30

[The Equaliser]

May as well put these up now.  Last fling for my Trixie bets.  All based around @The Brigadier's selections and this time I took the early prices.

1.15 Nb Gamaret 3/1

2.10 War Midnight Moss 10/3

3.35 Nb Bold Endeavour 9/2

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts poss return 158.49 points

----------------------------------------------

1.35 War Langley Hundred 7/2

1.50 Nb Lady Adare 6/1

2.40 Lin Sunset Bay 5/1

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts poss return of 289.50 points

8 pts staked in total.  Good luck to all on the last racing day of the year ?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I will be using a totally different approach in 2023.  This will be a Back to Lay strategy. I'm fed up with losing money so I'm going to go for just a few points wins every day and hopefully will double a 100 point bank over the next 12 months

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections, final day

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Newbury	12.10	Heure De Gloire	10/1
Punchestown	12.15	From The Ashes	50/1
Punchestown	12.47	Stumptown	4/1
Lingfield	2.05	Tyger Bay	11/2
Uttoxeter	2.18	Saint Bibiana	18/1

[Alley Cat Glover]

Saturday’s Lucky 15, all E/W prices hoping to improve from Boxing Day.

 1.22 Punch Libby. 16/1. 3 places

2.32 Punch Off Your Rocco  12/1 5 places

2.25 Newb  Grumpy Charlie. 13/2. 4 places

3.00 Newb Idalko Bihoue. 18/1  4 places 

all with B365

[Tedthewolf]

Another  bet today

0.65 e/w l1.35 War- POTTERS HEDGER  20/1 NOT  BOG 5 places.

RT +42pts

 

[Sporting Sam]

I don't know how these will really go once they are thrown into the great cement mixer which is an Irish handicap, which holds more mysteries than a James Joyce novel and more red herrings than an Agatha Christie book.

Punchestown 2.32

GREAT GATSBY 

Each way 

CAPTAIN CONBY

Win 

These two are at the head of the weights and have met  before.

Captain conby's place behind shewearsitwell has been franked by that one winning again and both runners have run into horses who are now racing off higher marks. There are a mass of conundrums to add to this race with non triers in abundance, but the two course and distance wins from CC in maiden and novice runs prove he at least gets the trip and is highly progressive and runs off a rating yet to be reassessed.

Lingfield 2.05

Wide open for a Saturday where the standard goes up hugely.

TADREEB

Win 

Both course and distance wins have come in class 2.

SHALLOW HAL 

Each way

class 2 winner just two runs ago 

A big price 

Emporer spirit 

Looks set to run a big race too under Hollie Doyle but like all of the Saturday fair wide open, but at least everyone will be putting it in.

 

Emporer spirit 

Shallow Hal 

Tadreeb 

Combination forecast 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jonjo]

Grade B Handicp Hurdle at Punchestown at 2.32. I like the look of Captain Conby here for at least a place. The race he was third in last time was a slightly stronger race than this being a Pertemps Qualifier, he did well to finish 3rd over a distance that seemed to stretch him, the winner came out to win a Grade 3 Hurdle next time out. The cut back to 20 furlongs should see Captain Conby in a better like against this company. He was second to Captain Bloodaxe the time before over this distance and that one was placed behind Maxuum a couple of days ago. Currently 7.2 on the Exchanges and 2.54 to place. Win and place bet...................................................Placed at 2.54

 

Good luck everyone. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by jonjo

[azzybear]

shantruese 12.15

[azzybear]

grivetanas 12.10 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

Last chance saloon for this sytem today !

NEWB	1.15	Only Money	5/1
WARW	1.35	Sporting Ace	11/2
NEWB	1.50	Blenkinsop	4/1
WARW	2.10	Smugglers Blues	5/1
NEWB	2.25	Shanty Alley	10/1
NEWB	3.00	Joyeux Machin	4/1
NEWB	3.35	Bold Endeavour	4/1

[Bang on]

A surprise but 4 from my tracker list today, (all prices B365)

1.15 Newb - Not Available - 12/1 (1/5th 3 places) - keeps falling in the weights and is quite well treated on old form.

1.30 Ling- Ruskin Red - 13/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Jockey gave it an awful ride LTO having to come from way too far back to finish 2nd - Tom Marquand takes over today.

2.05 Ling - Emperor Spirit - 13/2 (1/5th 4 places) - Claiming jockey went crazy fast from the front LTO and didn't get home - Hollie Doyle takes over with 1st time blinkers.

3.15 Ling - Beauzon - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Had been a BF and was 7lb lower than for CD win BUT.. had a bad draw and was ridden out the back with no chance. Drops in class today.

[fd1972uk]

Might do a few but possibly bad idea

Went to play footy this morning and forgot to put a bet on as was waiting till 10 for best odds, completely forgot, lol.

Two fancies algheed and broxi 1sr and 2nd, grrrrrr.

Edited December 31, 2022 by fd1972uk

[fd1972uk]

Bad idea, lol, nowhere.

Money back on last race, 3rd.

Had a freebie was between casa tall, nina the terrier and lord snootie, lol.

Got hermes Allen at 2/1, and that's my whack.

Doing a US night tomorrow so not sure if there'll be any UK bets

Have a lovely New year when it comes.

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by fd1972uk

[black rabbit]

SAN SALVADOR     2 32 PUN/     1/20TH OF A PT WIN   12/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 158.55PT

[black rabbit]

40 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

SAN SALVADOR     2 32 PUN/     1/20TH OF A PT WIN   12/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 158.55PT

think i could have won on him {drifted to  16'tns +  so i had little extra on }

like to wish ye all a happy and healthy new year ?

[Sporting Sam]

4 hours ago, sporting sam said:

I don't know how these will really go once they are thrown into the great cement mixer which is an Irish handicap, which holds more mysteries than a James Joyce novel and more red herrings than an Agatha Christie book.

Punchestown 2.32

GREAT GATSBY 

Each way 

CAPTAIN CONBY

Win 

These two are at the head of the weights and have met  before.

Captain conby's place behind shewearsitwell has been franked by that one winning again and both runners have run into horses who are now racing off higher marks. There are a mass of conundrums to add to this race with non triers in abundance, but the two course and distance wins from CC in maiden and novice runs prove he at least gets the trip and is highly progressive and runs off a rating yet to be reassessed.

Lingfield 2.05

Wide open for a Saturday where the standard goes up hugely.

TADREEB

Win 

Both course and distance wins have come in class 2.

SHALLOW HAL 

Each way

class 2 winner just two runs ago 

A big price 

Emporer spirit 

Looks set to run a big race too under Hollie Doyle but like all of the Saturday fair wide open, but at least everyone will be putting it in.

 

Emporer spirit 

Shallow Hal 

Tadreeb 

Combination forecast 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shocking day overall 

 

But captain conby went close but got going too late.

 

Final flat race 

 

Lingfield 3.15

 

Hit Mac 

 

Win 

 

Gone close on last few runs and William Buick can get this one home for George Boughey.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by sporting sam

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, Bang on said:

A surprise but 4 from my tracker list today, (all prices B365)

1.15 Newb - Not Available - 12/1 (1/5th 3 places) - keeps falling in the weights and is quite well treated on old form.

1.30 Ling- Ruskin Red - 13/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Jockey gave it an awful ride LTO having to come from way too far back to finish 2nd - Tom Marquand takes over today.

2.05 Ling - Emperor Spirit - 13/2 (1/5th 4 places) - Claiming jockey went crazy fast from the front LTO and didn't get home - Hollie Doyle takes over with 1st time blinkers.

3.15 Ling - Beauzon - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Had been a BF and was 7lb lower than for CD win BUT.. had a bad draw and was ridden out the back with no chance. Drops in class today.

Quality !

Not available - 3rd 18/1

Ruskin Red - again given too much to do.

Emperor Spirit- never really put close enough.

Beauzon - .... unseats jockey coming out of stalls !

[jonjo]

Happy New Years Eve everyone, just off out myself, hope you all have a great time tonight and can still read the form pages tomorrow ?

[MCLARKE]

20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections, final day

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Newbury	12.10	Heure De Gloire	10/1
Punchestown	12.15	From The Ashes	50/1
Punchestown	12.47	Stumptown	4/1
Lingfield	2.05	Tyger Bay	11/2
Uttoxeter	2.18	Saint Bibiana	18/1

The last 2 horses managed to turn this into a profit, not bad for such a simple system, I'm sure a filter or 2 would make it much more profitable

Saint Bibiana won at 18/1 (30p R4) and Tyger Bay at 13/2 less 3 losers gives a profit for the day of 16.10 points

Overall 45 from 257, LSP 5.51 points

Happy birthday tomorrow for all horses born in the northern hemisphere !

[The Equaliser]

20 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

May as well put these up now.  Last fling for my Trixie bets.  All based around @The Brigadier's selections and this time I took the early prices.

1.15 Nb Gamaret 3/1

2.10 War Midnight Moss 10/3

3.35 Nb Bold Endeavour 9/2

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts poss return 158.49 points

----------------------------------------------

1.35 War Langley Hundred 7/2

1.50 Nb Lady Adare 6/1

2.40 Lin Sunset Bay 5/1

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts poss return of 289.50 points

8 pts staked in total.  Good luck to all on the last racing day of the year ?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I will be using a totally different approach in 2023.  This will be a Back to Lay strategy. I'm fed up with losing money so I'm going to go for just a few points wins every day and hopefully will double a 100 point bank over the next 12 months

RESULTS UPDATE

I was a bit unlucky not to get a double in with Midnight Moss failing by a nose.  I got 4 pts returned as Bold endeavour was a non runner.  This created a loss of -4 and an MTD of -88.93. My YTD loss is -352.37 which has gone to money heaven this year.

I think that the change over from the flat to the jumps took its toll and December was a bad month for me as well.  I came close on more than one occasion in significantly reducing the deficit but it just didn't happen.

I will change tactics in the New Year.  I am dropping the Trixies and Multiples as the wait for a decent win is just too long IMO.  Instead I will be focussing on singles bets using back to lay, Lay to back and even just Lay Bets.  After all it would seem that I am good at finding losers, haha.

Many thanks to all the PL contributors this year who provided some great input to help members make a profit.

Have a good New Year's eve everyone and may I wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year

 

[Zilzalian]

On 12/30/2022 at 11:33 PM, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections, final day

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Newbury	12.10	Heure De Gloire	10/1
Punchestown	12.15	From The Ashes	50/1
Punchestown	12.47	Stumptown	4/1
Lingfield	2.05	Tyger Bay	11/2
Uttoxeter	2.18	Saint Bibiana	18/1

might be good policy where you have 5 to do them all on a lucky 31 10p is only £3.10 not the biggest loss you will have. good double the above tho. i got 34 quid and change back lol.

[Zilzalian]

18 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

The last 2 horses managed to turn this into a profit, not bad for such a simple system, I'm sure a filter or 2 would make it much more profitable

Saint Bibiana won at 18/1 (30p R4) and Tyger Bay at 13/2 less 3 losers gives a profit for the day of 16.10 points

Overall 45 from 257, LSP 5.51 points

Happy birthday tomorrow for all horses born in the northern hemisphere !

got a filter for when deciding say a lucky 15, dont ask a 5 yo horse to do what it hasnt before especially on the flat ie priority would be 1. distance  2. ground 3. course.

 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

got a filter for when deciding say a lucky 15, dont ask a 5 yo horse to do what it hasnt before especially on the flat ie priority would be 1. distance  2. ground 3. course.

The problem is that most people look at things like that and it's reflected in the odds.

My best bets seem to be when the horse doesn't tick any of these boxes, I have to force myself to bet sometimes because they look no hopers.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

The problem is that most people look at things like that and it's reflected in the odds.

My best bets seem to be when the horse doesn't tick any of these boxes, I have to force myself to bet sometimes because they look no hopers.

Not too sure thats the case to be honest Mike most of the field has generally done the distance and it is that metric that is useful for the purpose of eliminating the odd one or prioritising the odd one. I find historic form is soon forgotten and that's where the bigger price comes in. if i was stuck between one that has done the distance and one that hasn't (especially dropping back in trip) the distance winner every time for me unless there is a huge price advantage. 2 5yo in the last at southwell be interesting to see how they get on the distance aspect is clouded by it being 1m 3f (not a great amount of races over that trip in comparison) the cox horse mille miglia won well over 12f lto. Addosh is coming off the jumps so neither can be ruled out on trip basis.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Zilzalian