Racing Chat - Saturday 31st December

[Bang on]

On 12/31/2022 at 8:37 PM, The Equaliser said:

 

I will change tactics in the New Year.  I am dropping the Trixies and Multiples as the wait for a decent win is just too long IMO. 

 

I think that's a wise decision, a 4pts loss on a trixie when you get just 1 winner at reasonable odds is very frustrating. 1.33pts on each (4pts - same as trixie) with a 3/1 winner returns 5pts (+1 instead of -4) can make a big difference over time. I have decided to stick to singles with the occasional EW double going for a payout when it looks solid enough.

Good luck in 2023.

[Tedthewolf]

15 minutes ago, Bang on said:

I think that's a wise decision, a 4pts loss on a trixie when you get just 1 winner at reasonable odds is very frustrating. 1.33pts on each (4pts - same as trixie) with a 3/1 winner returns 5pts (+1 instead of -4) can make a big difference over time. I have decided to stick to singles with the occasional EW double going for a payout when it looks solid enough.

Good luck in 2023.

L15  bets are beter imo as one winner  gets doubles  if you get one winner picking reasonable odds it  works out ok. 

[MCLARKE]

30 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

L15  bets are beter imo as one winner  gets doubles  if you get one winner picking reasonable odds it  works out ok. 

Yep, definitely a good bet assuming you can get the best odds with the same bookmaker.

[Tedthewolf]

11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, definitely a good bet assuming you can get the best odds with the same bookmaker.

Yeah  bookies that offer bog  and double the odss Bet365 i use mostly sometimes Corals.

[MCLARKE]

I tend to bet those horses that don't tick the boxes, it sounds counter intuitive and is difficult to do but it works for me. It is all based on statistics.

As examples

It is often stated that a horse being fit is a plus factor. However horses that have had a run in the last 22 days have an AE of 0.97.

Horse won last time, AE 0.996

Horse finished 2nd last time, AE 0.964

So generally I would ignore those horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time

Course winner, AE 0.99

Distance winner, AE 0.98

So I would start out with horses that didn't start 1st or 2nd last time, hadn't won over the course or distance and last ran more than 22 days ago.

If I exclude those horses with forecast odds of 25/1 or more then the results over the last 9 NH seasons are

Wins 7,221

Runs 67,057

LSP 2,049.73

 

[Zilzalian]

Stick my oar in here i love lucky 15's and lucky 31's even lucky 63 if i have 6 ggs

now talk about counter intuitive as a basic rule i just look through the list of horses i ignore everything else, i note them down then back the buggers unless i can find a good reason to drop them, it is often said the best bet is the single and i wouldn't argue with anyone about that because i always back the singles separately. Mike and his AE are all very interesting but for me thats pure data stuff, if you look at all the results daily the AE goes straight out of the window. One proviso- i treat 2yolds totally different because i use my own speed figures (pure data stuff) for those and i do wins forecasts and tricasts (where available). 

the luckys are my fun bets or my hobby if you like and i do pretty well out of them but my serious betting is on 2yolds and that is my job. i also like to pop the odd lucky 15 on one trainers horses, i did alan king the other day he got 14/1 & 20/1 from 4 thats good profit one more would have been even nicer tho.

[Bang on]

On 12/31/2022 at 12:24 PM, Bang on said:

A surprise but 4 from my tracker list today, (all prices B365)

1.15 Newb - Not Available - 12/1 (1/5th 3 places) - keeps falling in the weights and is quite well treated on old form.

1.30 Ling- Ruskin Red - 13/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Jockey gave it an awful ride LTO having to come from way too far back to finish 2nd - Tom Marquand takes over today.

2.05 Ling - Emperor Spirit - 13/2 (1/5th 4 places) - Claiming jockey went crazy fast from the front LTO and didn't get home - Hollie Doyle takes over with 1st time blinkers.

3.15 Ling - Beauzon - 11/2 (1/5th 3 places) - Had been a BF and was 7lb lower than for CD win BUT.. had a bad draw and was ridden out the back with no chance. Drops in class today.

After Beauzon unseating jockey at the stalls .... he comes out 3 days later and wins at 13/2. 

[MCLARKE]

On 12/30/2022 at 11:33 PM, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections, final day

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Newbury	12.10	Heure De Gloire	10/1
Punchestown	12.15	From The Ashes	50/1
Punchestown	12.47	Stumptown	4/1
Lingfield	2.05	Tyger Bay	11/2
Uttoxeter	2.18	Saint Bibiana	18/1

I've now performed a detailed analysis for November / December 2022 and this continues to be profitable, with an AE of 1.06. There were 405 winners from 3,358 runners. However at level stakes there was a loss of 418 points so you would have been advised to avoid the longer odds. Those who were in the top 4 forecast odds recorded 352 wins from 1,531 runners and a profit of 117 points. Those not in the top 4 returned 53 wins from 1,827 runners and a loss of 535 points.

The returns for those races where there is only 1 selection performed slightly worse, with an AE of 1.05. Again it would have been better to stick with those who were in the top 4 forecast odds. They returned 55 wins from 202 selections and a profit of 33 points compared to those not in the 1st 4 which recorded 3 wins from 140 selections and a loss of 107 points.