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Tennis Tips - August 8 - August 14


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Diego Schwartzman - Alejandro D. Fokina || (over 21) || 1.7 @ Olybet! 

Two clay courters collide in the first round of Montreal. Both players had a terrible summer, especially Diego, i dont know the issues with that, but looks like he is preparing his body for US open. Fokina aswell had few games this summer, where he lost in R1 Bastad on 11of July. So this will be first official match of these players on hard, it can go either way. I decided to pick over 21games! 

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Emil Ruusuvuori (-3.5) to beat Stan Wawrinka|| 1.82@ Olybet!

Dont know how Stan feels right now, but it is not the same Stan as we all know. He is still in the recovery process, and played his first game after injury on 11th of Appril in Monte Carlo and lost to Bublik. After that he had decent matches vs Sinnik in Wimbledon and Rolland Garros, but he lost everything. Also be mentioned somewhere in media that he may never recover, that sounds really bad of a self belief. Maybe i am wrong, but he needs more time to comeback, and knowing the fact that he is 37 , it may never come. 

Ruusuvuori is a young up and coming talent, maybe he lack of consistancy, but here the injury fact will play a key role. Bet is based more opposite to Stan!

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Last week a tough week for my tennis bets, 4 bets, zero wins, to leave a Total

P/L -1.43pts

Nothing stood out for me in ATP Montreal round one games, though I have one outsider in the ladies WTA Toronto who I feel is overpriced:

WTA Toronto

Anna Bondar 3.50

Prices Bet365

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Not been posting that much. Started a new consulting role, and it's going pretty well, Enjoying myself, but not much time for betting and tennis.

Just taking 45 minutes at lunch to chill a little.

Two low priced matches that I do like are Murray to get beaten by Fritz, and Draper to beat Gaston.   I have seen what Murray has got. He's OK, nothing brilliant, but he looks like a 35 year old. He's solid off the ground. but really has no way of collecting free points. My feeling is that Fritz is gonna serve him off the court. When somebody is serving so well, it sets up the rest of the game, to really have a go at the opponents serve. Essentially Fritz almost has a shot to nothing, every time Murray serves.

The other match involves 2 left handers, so it is a different dynamic for both of them. I think Draper has terrific potential. Very young, strong. I think (am hoping) that his game is technically more sound than Gaston. WIll take these two onto Nishioka to beat Paire. Nishioka has some serious confidence and form (from last week), and I think Paire gets ground down here. For me the -2.5 Nishioka at 1.83 is a steal.

Will just take these three as a treble which works out around 2.4 to 1 for 5 units (or 1/4 of my max stake).

Back to werk......... I go.

 

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28 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Not been posting that much. Started a new consulting role, and it's going pretty well, Enjoying myself, but not much time for betting and tennis.

Just taking 45 minutes at lunch to chill a little.

Two low priced matches that I do like are Murray to get beaten by Fritz, and Draper to beat Gaston.   I have seen what Murray has got. He's OK, nothing brilliant, but he looks like a 35 year old. He's solid off the ground. but really has no way of collecting free points. My feeling is that Fritz is gonna serve him off the court. When somebody is serving so well, it sets up the rest of the game, to really have a go at the opponents serve. Essentially Fritz almost has a shot to nothing, every time Murray serves.

The other match involves 2 left handers, so it is a different dynamic for both of them. I think Draper has terrific potential. Very young, strong. I think (am hoping) that his game is technically more sound than Gaston. WIll take these two onto Nishioka to beat Paire. Nishioka has some serious confidence and form (from last week), and I think Paire gets ground down here. For me the -2.5 Nishioka at 1.83 is a steal.

Will just take these three as a treble which works out around 2.4 to 1 for 5 units (or 1/4 of my max stake).

Back to werk......... I go.

 

Be careful with Fritz, I was listening to Sean Calvert earlier and he mentioned that Fritz has had little training time due to an injury he picked up that forced him to retire in his last match. Proceed with caution. 

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43 minutes ago, amity said:

Be careful with Fritz, I was listening to Sean Calvert earlier and he mentioned that Fritz has had little training time due to an injury he picked up that forced him to retire in his last match. Proceed with caution. 

OK thanks. Will avoid him 

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Andy Murray (+1.5 set) - Taylor H. Fritz || 1.72 @ Olybet! 

I like the fact that Murray is to much of an underdog here. Knowing the fact that american had very good season, but last match vs Evans when he pulled out of the game left fans guessig. It may be not just hot conditions fact, like he told. It may be some mind games, to prevent others from knowing that smth is wrong. Well, Andy havent played Fritz before, he is picking his form for a moment, i believe he have a chance here even to win. But i am picking more safer bet 👍

 

 

 

Edited by TennisPRO
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7 minutes ago, TennisPRO said:

Andy Murray (+1.5 set) - Taylor H. Fritz || 1.72 @ Olybet! 

I like the fact that Murray is to much of an underdog here. Knowing the fact that american had very good season, but last match vs Evans when he pulled out of the game left fans guessig. It may be not just hot conditions fact, like he told. It may be some mind games, to prevent others from knowing that smth is wrong. Well, Andy havent played Fritz before, he is picking his form for a moment, i believe he have a chance here even to win. But i am picking more safer bet 👍

 

 

 

Having watched Murray play Ymer and lose just recently, I simply cannot put 1 cent on Murray. He simply can't beat a 65% match fit Fritz.

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Even though Ostepenko has not played since Wimbledon, she is playing someone so out of form (Kalinina), that there is probably only one outcome here. An Ostapenko win. Kalinina just came off a 6-1 6-0 thrashing from C Gauff. So she is not in a great place. Probably more of the same here.

Another player really in a bad spot is Dennis SHapavalov. No confidence, and a game that is not working well. I expect him to lose to de Minaur (happy with 1.6 on the Aussie).

My 3rd leg of this parlay is Cressy to beat Karatsev (who I'll oppose almost every time he plays).

Not betting much (as the games are on in middle of the night), but may risk 3 units here, in this treble. that should be at odds around 2.6 to 1.

Edited by neilovan
betting not 'beating'
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Nick Kyrgios (-1.5 set) to beat Sebastian Baez || 1.76@Olybet! 

Simply cant imagine how argentine can win a single set from the aussie. The double champ of Washington will have a few days rest. And expect him to be very good. Nyshioka had zero chances to break in final. Nick is flying right now, and i bet he will be eyeing on US open trophy, this is his time. These two earlier this year in Indian Wells 6:4 6:0 match has finished. So -3.5 games also looks nice, but i am sticking with sets this time. Also you can look for better odds on -3 maybe there is better selection, my local bookie offers -3 just 1.57, so as i said -1.5 is a choice! 👍

Edited by TennisPRO
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Playing Bencic to beat Martincova at 1.34 with Pinnacle today. Bencic is classier overall, plays big events well, and Martincova is stuck a little bit, she even dropped a set against a complete unknown in the qualifying. 4-0 H2H as well. Kyrgios also appeals, he seems to have turned things around at least in the short term, and Baez doesn't have a good game on hard courts.

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1 pick for ATP Montreal match today:

Tiafoe -3games handicap over Bonzi @ 2 pinnacle

Tiafoe has 2 wins over Bonzi on clay courts including French Open this year. Tiafoe has a powerful game suited for the Americal hard courts, while Bonzi is more of a clay court player.

 

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2 hours ago, WinningTipster said:

1 pick for ATP Montreal match today:

Tiafoe -3games handicap over Bonzi @ 2 pinnacle

Tiafoe has 2 wins over Bonzi on clay courts including French Open this year. Tiafoe has a powerful game suited for the Americal hard courts, while Bonzi is more of a clay court player.

 

Last year Bonzi won six challengers and five of them were on hardcourt...in this career he played 300+ matches on hard and 200- on clay...I wouldn't necessarily call him a clay court player

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23 hours ago, TennisPRO said:

Nick Kyrgios (-1.5 set) to beat Sebastian Baez || 1.76@Olybet! 

Simply cant imagine how argentine can win a single set from the aussie. The double champ of Washington will have a few days rest. And expect him to be very good. Nyshioka had zero chances to break in final. Nick is flying right now, and i bet he will be eyeing on US open trophy, this is his time. These two earlier this year in Indian Wells 6:4 6:0 match has finished. So -3.5 games also looks nice, but i am sticking with sets this time. Also you can look for better odds on -3 maybe there is better selection, my local bookie offers -3 just 1.57, so as i said -1.5 is a choice! 👍

Nishioka had 1 chance to break in first set but hit it wide.

Edited by four-leaf
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Bencic and Kyrgios with no issues, and I'm backing Bencic to beat Williams at 1.50 with Unibet again, Serena just isn't on the right level anymore. She did well to score a win in the first round, but Bencic actually has some power, unlike NPD, who's a clay courter by trade and who doesn't have any weapons on this surface.

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On 8/8/2022 at 5:23 PM, neilovan said:

Having watched Murray play Ymer and lose just recently, I simply cannot put 1 cent on Murray. He simply can't beat a 65% match fit Fritz.

Sorry brother, I was overcautious on this occasion, hope you didn't lose out too much by not taking Fritz to win. 😔

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Bencic and Kyrgios with no issues, and I'm backing Bencic to beat Williams at 1.50 with Unibet again, Serena just isn't on the right level anymore. She did well to score a win in the first round, but Bencic actually has some power, unlike NPD, who's a clay courter by trade and who doesn't have any weapons on this surface.

kyrgios to beat medvedev with no issues ? dunno what to say about that..

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Cameron Norrie - Botic van de Zandschulp|| Over 21 || 1.7@Olybet

Pretty decent serve dutchman have, and he can cause some trouble here to Norrie. This time last year Botic was outside the 100 rank, and i like the fact how he improving, he still needs more to be done on returning better, but he is the one to watch out at the moment. I like chances on over. In case for example 6:3 7:5 L , will be void. 👍

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Bencic managed to win without any issues again, which was nice to see. For short odds, I like Muchova to beat Scott at 1.40 with UnibetThe Czech has decided to go for a smaller tournament this week after struggling for much of the season, and she got an easy win against a potentially tricky opponent in R1. This is actually a step down in terms of quality, so I trust her to win. Despite her having only a 6-5 record this season, she hasn't lost against anyone this average yet (her losses came against Halep, Jabeur, Anisimova, Martic and Bencic).

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Which idiot decides to put the TV camera's up 15 tows up/back, where you feel like you are watching the tennis from the noise bleed seats.

Who comes up with this nonsense? 

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I think Giorgi beats Pegula in the match starting now. I think Giorgi is defending champion, and really likes the venue. 

Also it is blowing 45+ kms per hour, which will make it a bit of lottery, but it should favor the more aggressive player, as rallying will not be easy.

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The following will be my treble for today:

Liam Broady/Gijs Brouwer over 21.5 games at 1.73

On paper a pretty even contest.

King Kyrgios to beat Hubi 2-0 at 2.14

Nick just rolls over easily.

Dennis Novak to beat Damir Dzumhur at 1.83

Damir have seen his best days go by and I like how Dennis took care of Struff yesterday.

Parlay total odds: 6.78 with Unibet

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