Racing Chat - Saturday 30th April

[Zilzalian]

15 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Whatever happens, I too would expect Native Trail to figure high in any ratings. 

5 races, 5 wins, including over CD. Already a Group 1 winner, and has won on the going. Not to mention the trainer who is as hot as any at the moment IMO. I have no problem with anyone going against the favourite, but wouldn't expect him not to figure.

all valid points and it is high in my ratings just not high enough. you wouldnt believe how often i have heard those arguments over the years and they are valid but i can only go with what i have. there will be a few who will say "told you so" if native trail wins and if it loses they will have an excuse for it, and i will take them seriously if they show me a pic of the £100 quid they had on. and still i will know that no ratings produce a winner everytime so i simply move on to next race.

[Zilzalian]

39 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Punchestown trends. Only 3 years data to base this on but I need some method to pick some selections for the tipsters competition.

3.10 Last ran < 34 days ago 1 from 39

Odds < 16/1, 1 from 28

This leaves 2, FAKIR and EASYLAND

Weight < 10st 12lbs, 1 from 31

This leaves EASYLAND at 25/1, 4 places

3.50

Beaten favourite, 0 from 2

1st last time, 2 from 5, AE 1.43

Odds > 2/1, 1 from 19

This leaves EPATANTE at 5/6

4.25

Weight < 11st 1lb, 0 from 29

This leaves POPONG, WEST CORK WILDWAY, TEN TEN and PHOENIX WAY

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 0 from 30

This leaves PHOENIX WAY at 8/1, 4 places

5.00

Not in 1st 3 last time, 0 from 9

Last ran > 23 days ago, 1 from 10

This leaves INNATENDUE at 66/1

 

I think innatendue is a great price i had it in my tracker when it used to be trained in france.

[Tedthewolf]

I'm with Zilzalian that an outsider will win the guineas my e/w bet is  checkandchallenge 28/1 

I am hopeing  4.25 Pun Ten Ten can comes back to form now he running  back in this race 18/1 4 places will do for me e/w

[kensland]

Hexham. 

Double. 

6.20.Scottish Accent.      5/1

6.50.Retrospect.               6/1 

singles & double 

Good luck all 

[richard-westwood]

On 4/29/2022 at 11:17 AM, richard-westwood said:

2000 guineas final ratings 

Luxembourg 9.2  7.6

Native trail   9.0 

Corebus    8.6  7.2 

Perfect power  8.4 

Lusail       8.0 

Very very competitive 2000 guineas ....Native trail sets the standard but on breeding Luxembourg and corebus look the 2 to maybe take him on ...decent value prices on betfair 7.2 and 7.6 so to me that's value to take him on 

10pt win corebus and Luxembourg 

 

 

Corebus wins ...Native 2nd ...Luxembourg 3rd ....would have been another tricast but only paid 3.16 for 10p so I'll let that one slide?

Edited April 30, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

14 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures 2000 Guineas

1 Perfect Power             227                14/1 7th

2 Lusail                           222                50/1 6th (80/1)

2 Berkshire Shadow      222                80/1  5th

4 Luxembourg               221                11/2 3rd

On the face of it this seems to be the open most Guineas I have ever rated if you strip away all the hype.

It will depend on not who will stay the best but who is capable of staying the mile on the day.

Don't be surprised if point lonsdale finishes in front of luxembourg.

I am hoping for a serious F/C T/C . I really believe that there is a good posibility of a shocker of a result this year.

For the small punter ew backers that 80/1 for Berkshire Royal is well worth a little tickle. (prices bet365 at time of posting)

paid ew extra places bet365

berkshire shadow (didnt stay)

lusail                     (slow to go)

Happy with the figures.

[Zilzalian]

Native Trail 5/4 tells you all you need to know about value and betting. That was a seriously competetive guineas with a 5/4 fav even trying the fc and tc was pathetic on those horses at those prices.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

I'm with Zilzalian that an outsider will win the guineas my e/w bet is  checkandchallenge 28/1 

I am hopeing  4.25 Pun Ten Ten can comes back to form now he running  back in this race 18/1 4 places will do for me e/w

i backed 10 10 but sadly it broke down 

[Zilzalian]

Im hoping Dig Two (my top rated) can get me a treble up in the 525 N-M got 2 good winners going on in my patent.

[azzybear]

bread and butter 5.30 small ew bet 

[cannotbebeat]

@The Equaliser Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus. Well The Equaliser we win and I have to say @Zilzalian not impressed with your attitude today. The deal on here is to help each other out not run each other down.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well arrogance aside which i really am guilty of, my ratings make money year in and year out its the other rubbish i fiddle about with that costs me money, look at your answer to my question. it has nothing to do with your thinking or opinion apart from reading other peoples "stuff" and amplifying it. maybe thats why you keep losing money year on year which means other people lose it for you. I love the fact i came up with an idea learnt how to create formula in excel, put it into practice and it was succesful. you have spent 11 points today if all your selections win how much overall will you collect? dont forget your double handed with some of your points so apart from a dead heat you have already backed losers before they run.

I guess if you wish to carry on burying your head in the sand and conclude that a 50/1 shot should finish in front of an almost even-money shot with glowing previous performances, who am I to stop you.  I think that you just can't be bothered to tweak your ratings system when it seems to badly need it.

I seem to remember you saying something along the lines of how can't I find a decent each way bet in the Guineas earlier.  Well, to me an each-way bet is two bets and I don't like to mix them up.  Hence you are criticising me for having two bets when advocating doing the same.  I am fed up with backing horses that just don't seem to fire when they should.  So, I put it to you that backing two well-fancied horses in one race is far superior to baking a long shot each way.  One will simply get more successes my way.

You never post up a cumulative figure of how you are doing, all we get is regular comments about your successes after the event, which is just of no use to anyone.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, cannotbebeat said:

@The Equaliser Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus. Well The Equaliser we win and I have to say @Zilzalian not impressed with your attitude today. The deal on here is to help each other out not run each other down.

Very true, but I take a lot of flak on here and, if @Zilzalianlikes to dish it out he should be prepared to take some back

[Bang on]

5 hours ago, Bang on said:

Busy day today so no added comments etc.

1.00 Thirsk - Zuffolo - 7/4

4.15 Nmkt - Contact - 9/4

4.55 Good - State Legend - 9/4

Zuffalo - WON 5/2

Contact - WON 11/4

State Legend - lost

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

i backed 10 10 but sadly it broke down 

yeah watched it so sad

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I guess if you wish to carry on burying your head in the sand and conclude that a 50/1 shot should finish in front of an almost even-money shot with glowing previous performances, who am I to stop you.  I think that you just can't be bothered to tweak your ratings system when it seems to badly need it.

I seem to remember you saying something along the lines of how can't I find a decent each way bet in the Guineas earlier.  Well, to me an each-way bet is two bets and I don't like to mix them up.  Hence you are criticising me for having two bets when advocating doing the same.  I am fed up with backing horses that just don't seem to fire when they should.  So, I put it to you that backing two well-fancied horses in one race is far superior to baking a long shot each way.  One will simply get more successes my way.

You never post up a cumulative figure of how you are doing, all we get is regular comments about your successes after the event, which is just of no use to anyone.

 

Last year i posted daily for a one month period the win section produced a good profit (it was a comparison between lucky 15's and win bets), i also posted 2yo speed figures for royal ascot which produced a very good returns one race of which gave the tricast and forecast another that gave the forecast. Want to go back and check and then reasess what you are saying? I find it quite hard to swallow that someone who has posted constant losses since i came on here tells me i need to tweak anything. remind me again how many people won money backing a 5/4 fav in a very competative guineas. Anyone backing the fav won exactly the same as me which was nothing, if my ratings need to be badly tweaked i hate to think what needs to happen to your punting efforts. I now detect animous coming from you so we will leave it there. Enjoy your punting but try not to let mine upset you so much.

[Zilzalian]

21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very true, but I take a lot of flak on here and, if @Zilzalianlikes to dish it out he should be prepared to take some back

 

29 minutes ago, cannotbebeat said:

@The Equaliser Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus. Well The Equaliser we win and I have to say @Zilzalian not impressed with your attitude today. The deal on here is to help each other out not run each other down.

Will just say in response to that, that i would help anyone out on here i have posted many tips about racing in general. i even sent the equaliser a list of speed figures last year, i have defended him on here on 2 previous occasions despite that, he felt the need to castigate me for not taking timeform et al at their word and it went on from there. but it stops here as far as i am concerned.

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

 

Will just say in response to that, that i would help anyone out on here i have posted many tips about racing in general. i even sent the equaliser a list of speed figures last year, i have defended him on here on 2 previous occasions despite that, he felt the need to castigate me for not taking timeform et al at their word and it went on from there. but it stops here as far as i am concerned.

Good

 

[Zilzalian]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?

That was close for places. 365 paid 6 places 530 punch, berkshire royal 33/1 was 6th and in the guineas berkshire shadow 80/1 was 5th 365 paid 4 places.

[Tedthewolf]

Guys  Chill.

We all get on  in the racing section  lets keep it the friendly way it  has been bulit over the years  by past and present?

[azzybear]

I can't be bothered with arguments I'm off 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

4.39 Uttx Found On 2/1

7.50 Hex Ellaat 2/1

8.20 Hex Fourth Of July 7/2

1 x 4 pt win bet = poss return of 76.50

Cover Bets:

4.39 Uttx Shetland Bus 1 pt at 4.10

7.50 Hex Paddy The Horse 1 pt win at 11/2

8.20 Hex Present Storm 1 pt win at 10.0

Other bets

4.05 Uttx Hunters Call 1 pt win at 8.163

5.15 Hex Ribeye 1 pt win at 8.0

PL Members bets

3.40 Nm Coroebus 1 pt win at 6/1 and Lusail 5 TBC 1 pt at 5.8

Total stakes = 11 points

If nothing else I have sought out the best prices I can find for this lot

Good luck to all today

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner in my Trixie.  Some very strange betting at Hexham this evening.  One of my PL members bets won so thanks to @richard-westwood for that one.  My place bet came 6th when I needed it to get 5th so no return on that.  A loss of 5 points as I made a mistake and only got 5/1 instead of 6/1 Coroebus.  MTD = -73.46 and YTD is -229.27

I will keep with my Trixies from May 1st and begin to include flat races.  I will keep to having a saver win bet on probably the 2nd or 3rd favourite in my trixie races as I like to have another horse running for me just in case my Trixie selections just do not fire.  I will also have up to 3 points each day on selections that have been highlighted by PL members.  This is an experiment for May.  If all goes well I will continue with it for June.

I do realise that my results look bad but the way I see it is that I still have two thirds of a year to get the books straight

 

 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner in my Trixie.  Some very strange betting at Hexham this evening.  One of my PL members bets won so thanks to @richard-westwood for that one.  My place bet came 6th when I needed it to get 5th so no return on that.  A loss of 5 points as I made a mistake and only got 5/1 instead of 6/1 Coroebus.  MTD = -73.46 and YTD is -229.27

I will keep with my Trixies from May 1st and begin to include flat races.  I will keep to having a saver win bet on probably the 2nd or 3rd favourite in my trixie races as I like to have another horse running for me just in case my Trixie selections just do not fire.  I will also have up to 3 points each day on selections that have been highlighted by PL members.  This is an experiment for May.  If all goes well I will continue with it for June.

I do realise that my results look bad but the way I see it is that I still have two thirds of a year to get the books straight

 

 

Have fun with it....a lot to be said about entertainment factor ....if you went bowling once a week after a year your -1500 so if it brings you enjoyment just enjoy the process ......its fun to try new things and sometimes you can accidently stumble across something good .....but I think if you enjoy the racing you never really lose .....for me it's a de stresser from my stressful job ....I try hard to rate the best I can but I don't chastise myself when they run like donkeys lol ...and I just enjoy getting involved ....its nice to make a bit of money if you can but spending 20 quid a,week on something you enjoy is nothing in the grand scheme.....I enjoy seeing how you get on so keep trying 

[MCLARKE]

Yep, the great thing about @The Equaliseris that he keeps meticulous records of his bets unlike most punters.

[yossa6133]

Nothing wrong with some arguments, as long as they are civil...often the best way to reach some understanding!

Does the draw factor into anyone's ratings? It's the first things I look at for the flat, decide which draw I want and assess the chances of the horse(s) drawn there. 

[Villa Chris]

6 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Nothing wrong with some arguments, as long as they are civil...often the best way to reach some understanding!

Does the draw factor into anyone's ratings? It's the first things I look at for the flat, decide which draw I want and assess the chances of the horse(s) drawn there. 

5&6 furlongs I’ll take note and might write off an horse if the trends are heavily against the draw number . 7 furlongs and beyond I don’t tend to bother . 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

Nothing wrong with some arguments, as long as they are civil...often the best way to reach some understanding!

Does the draw factor into anyone's ratings? It's the first things I look at for the flat, decide which draw I want and assess the chances of the horse(s) drawn there. 

one thing i do know "draw noise" can put you off winners at most tracks. i worry more about inconsistant watering affecting races, the tight tracks tend to be more draw biased ie chester. 

[MCLARKE]

44 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Does the draw factor into anyone's ratings? It's the first things I look at for the flat, decide which draw I want and assess the chances of the horse(s) drawn there. 

Probably the key factor for me, I tend to ignore those horses drawn low.

[Villa Chris]

16 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

one thing i do know "draw noise" can put you off winners at most tracks. i worry more about inconsistant watering affecting races, the tight tracks tend to be more draw biased ie chester. 

Yes, 5 furlongs at Chester I’d definitely take note of the draw . Your point on watering is a big issue . With so much at stake for the punters I think it’s scandalous the current going dilemma we are having . 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Yes, 5 furlongs at Chester I’d definitely take note of the draw . Your point on watering is a big issue . With so much at stake for the punters I think it’s scandalous the current going dilemma we are having . 

would you believe the draw bias at chester is greater the longer the distance?