Racing Chat - Saturday 30th April

[richard-westwood]

Palace House stakes 

Ti's marvellous  8.8 5.1 

Arecibo      8.5  9.8 

Twilight calls   8.1 

Hurricane ivor     7.9 

Whenthedealisdone   7.7 

Very competitive sprint as you'd expect and many in with chances ....I'll try wins on top 2 with generous betfair prices 

10pt wins both ...1pt rev forecast top 2 

 

[richard-westwood]

150 newm

First folio   8.7  10.0

Jumby    8.5  9.6 

Bickerstaffe   8.2  17.0 

Black rod     8.0  10.0 

Very tough race...few unknowns with fitness etc but I'll try 4pt wins top 3 ....12x .5 forecasts.top4 ..24x10p tricasts top4 

Edited April 29, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

2000 guineas final ratings 

Luxembourg 9.2  7.6

Native trail   9.0 

Corebus    8.6  7.2 

Perfect power  8.4 

Lusail       8.0 

Very very competitive 2000 guineas ....Native trail sets the standard but on breeding Luxembourg and corebus look the 2 to maybe take him on ...decent value prices on betfair 7.2 and 7.6 so to me that's value to take him on 

10pt win corebus and Luxembourg 

 

 

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

A bumper field of 21 sprinters spread across the course go to post for this valuable class 2 6F handicap. Plenty have claims with my short list comprising of top weight Tactical who’s on the same handicap mark as when winning the Free Handicap here first time out last season and has had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him as well as Ryan Moore riding for Her Majesty The Queen. Jumby was 3rd in a Group 3 over course and distance at the Craven meeting and has claims here for the Eve Johnson Houghton stable. First Folio and Blackrod are two others with claims if fit after lay offs whilst Strike Red was a eye catcher last time out. A tough race but I’ll split my bet on Tactical from the in form Andrew Balding stable and Jumby.

 

TACTICAL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

JUMBY 1 point each way @ 17/2 Bet365 1/5th 123456

 

 

Thirsk 2.05

Fitzdares sponsor the Thirsk Hunt Cup run over a mile which is a handicap for horses rated 0-105. 15 go to post this year and the race has a very open look about it. The weights are headed by Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King who makes his seasonal re-appearance under 3lb apprentice Mark Crehan. He did win first time out last season and had some decent handicap form including when chasing home Real World in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He actually went off favourite for this very race last year when finishing 3rd but is now 7lb higher in the weights. Starshiba is an interesting horse who’s joined David O’Meara from the now retired David Elsworth having been bought by those shrewdies The Horse Watchers for £40k. Trais Fluors is also on my short list having ran really well on his re-appearance when 7th in the Newbury Spring Cup beaten 3 1/2L by Modern News. Dropped a pound he can be competitive here also but it’s the Stoute runner Astro King that’s the pick for me.

 

ASTRO KING 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.25

Another valuable handicap this time run over 9F and featuring a field of ten runners. Fast Medicine is officially 6lb well in here having blasted away from a field of handicappers at Nottingham last time (his first since been gelded) and a 5lb penalty may not stop him going close again although I do wonder what he actually beat that day. The top two in the handicap are the two that interest me the most. Top weight Movin Time makes his handicap debut for the in form Roger Varian having been gelded in the interim and is a possible whilst the Charlie Appleby trained Dhahabi hasn’t been seen on a racecourse for 567 days but is the only runner in the field who has a future group entry having been entered for the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Chris Wall has his local string in fine shape and his runner Turntable is two from three at the track and shouldn’t be under estimated either. With the Charlie Appleby team in such excellent form still it’s Dhahabi for me.

 

DHAHABI 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Goodwood 2.40

Seven fillies assemble for the William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes, a listed contest run over a mile. Favourite and most likely winner is the Ed Walker trained Primo Bacio who has future entries in two group races at Royal Ascot on her agenda. A mile on fast ground are her ideal conditions and she will take plenty of beating here if back to something like her best. William Haggas’s Bashkirova is interesting as a filly who was put in the Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot only last week but on official ratings has a stone to find with Primo Bacio. There’s two three year old’s in the contest Roger Varain’s Zanbaq, a Shadwell owned filly who’s stepping up in grade having won at Kempton in a novices stakes contest on her racecourse debut last November and holds a group 1 Coronation Stakes entry and Karl Burke’s Almohandesah who was a three length runner up in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket to Cachet on her first start of the season. A tight contest in which it may be worth chancing the Varian runner Zanbaq.

 

ZANBAQ 3 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Newmarket 3.00

A dozen speedballs assemble for this year’s renewal of the Group 3 5F Palace House Stakes. As much as I was impressed by the easy success of Henry Candy’s Twilight Calls over course and distance at the last meeting that was a 0-95 handicap and even with a 6lb rise he’s still 13lb shy of the top rated Tis Marvellous here. He is without doubt a rapid improver but at around the 3/1 mark is scant value. The aforementioned Tis Marvellous usually needs his first run of the season whilst Hurricane Ivor shoulders a 3lb penalty and may prefer some give un the ground. The horse I like is the Ed Walker trained Came From The Dark who was a neck runner up in this race last year and went in win the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown. He picked up an injury following that win and wouldn’t was at the ground too fast. I’ll play him to small stakes as he may just need this run but is the classiest runner in the field and has Hollie Doyle on his back.

 

CAME FROM THE DARK 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 3.40

The Group 1 Qipco 2000 Guineas is up next and has attracted a decent sized field of fifteen considering we have a very warm favourite in the Godolphin owned Native Trail. Charlie Appleby has two of the front three in the betting with the unbeaten Native Trail and Coroebus. The former was champion two year old and looked good when pushed out to win his trial in the Craven Stakes over course and distance 17 days ago. He does appear to hit a flat spot during his races and the dip at this course may not be ideal but there’s no doubting his latent ability and he has to be the one they all have to beat although whether even money is value is another thing. Coroebus looked smart as a juvenile and had a racecourse gallop a fortnight ago. Aidan O’Brien saddles a brace of runners in the unbeaten Luxembourg under Ryan Moore and Point Lonsdale who hasn’t been seen since firmly put in his place by Native Trail at The Curragh last September. The word is he’s been clocking some fast times on the Ballydoyle gallops and with Frankie Dettori booked is not out of this. The best outsider to my eyes is the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who got to within a couple of lengths of Native Trail in the Dewhurst at this course last October and his subsequent flop at the Breeders Cup is easily forgiven. He too had a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting and will be primed for this from his new base in Cheshire. Native Trail will probably win but to small stakes I’ll play Point Lonsdale and Dubawi Legend each way with most firms paying four places.

 

POINT LONSDALE 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

DUBAWI LEGEND 1/2 point each way @ 28/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234

 

[calva decoy]

Myself & at least one other member on here own ( rent ) some nostril hair of FIRST FOLIO who runs in the 1.50 , I got on early at 12's each way 6 places with bet365 , was around 17/2 last time I looked & with backing Thursday afternoon there's already a 10p rule 4 .

He worked at the Rowley Mile on Tuesday & came out of the dip well , will love the ground & won 1st time out last season , but , tight race , pinstickers job .

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures 2000 Guineas

1 Perfect Power             227                14/1

2 Lusail                           222                50/1

2 Berkshire Shadow      222                80/1

4 Luxembourg               221                11/2

On the face of it this seems to be the open most Guineas I have ever rated if you strip away all the hype.

It will depend on not who will stay the best but who is capable of staying the mile on the day.

Don't be surprised if point lonsdale finishes in front of luxembourg.

I am hoping for a serious F/C T/C . I really believe that there is a good posibility of a shocker of a result this year.

For the small punter ew backers that 80/1 for Berkshire Royal is well worth a little tickle. (prices bet365 at time of posting)

[Zilzalian]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

2000 guineas final ratings 

Luxembourg 9.2  7.6

Native trail   9.0 

Corebus    8.6  7.2 

Perfect power  8.4 

Lusail       8.0 

Very very competitive 2000 guineas ....Native trail sets the standard but on breeding Luxembourg and corebus look the 2 to maybe take him on ...decent value prices on betfair 7.2 and 7.6 so to me that's value to take him on 

10pt win corebus and Luxembourg 

 

 

interesting you have luxembourg, lusail, perfect power match my speed figures, whre does berkshire shadow fit in with you? also lusail and perfect power have distance issues if you believe the "pundits"

[Zilzalian]

Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?

[black rabbit]

Eyedon   3 40 Newm   1/5 pt ew  33/1     4th  placed

Apallo one  1 50  Newm   1/5 pt ew  33/1 

Whenthedealisdone  3 00  Newm  1/5 pt win   20/1

Annaf   5 25  Newm 1/5 pt win  14/1     

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures 2000 Guineas

1 Perfect Power             227                14/1

2 Lusail                           222                50/1

2 Berkshire Shadow      222                80/1

4 Luxembourg               221                11/2

On the face of it this seems to be the open most Guineas I have ever rated if you strip away all the hype.

It will depend on not who will stay the best but who is capable of staying the mile on the day.

Don't be surprised if point lonsdale finishes in front of luxembourg.

I am hoping for a serious F/C T/C . I really believe that there is a good posibility of a shocker of a result this year.

For the small punter ew backers that 80/1 for Berkshire Royal is well worth a little tickle. (prices bet365 at time of posting)

All very interesting info on this race from various quarters; I am just wondering why Native Trail doesn't figure in your top four ratings and where it is?  Timeform and RPR have it top rated and @richard-westwood has it in 2nd place.  I haven't decided whether to risk even one point on this race yet 

[calva decoy]

It'd be rude not to have a bet on the 1st official day of UK Jumps racing ? 

620 Hexham - DOLLY DANCER 7/2 

[cannotbebeat]

Newmarket
1.50 First Folio 7/1

3.40 Coroebus 11/2

4.50 Private Signal 5/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[fuzzy64]

Goodwoood 13.35

Notions 9-2

Piffle 12-1

14.46

Smith 13-1

Thirsk 14.05

Empire stateof mind 6-1

Lion Tower  10-1

14.45

Khabib 11-2

Saluti/Sophies Star  CSF

Thirsk

15.20

Mr Snugfit 10-1

Blistering Barney 14-1

 

Newmarket

14.25

Notre Belle Bet 13-2

Lucander 14-1

 

Punchestown

15.10 Regina Dracones  6-1

 

Newmarket 

15.40 Luxembourg  5-1

 

13 points bet, return 5.5 points = 7.5 points loss, but I enjoyed my bets bets today. Tried a new strategy!

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by fuzzy64
Give results.

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

All very interesting info on this race from various quarters; I am just wondering why Native Trail doesn't figure in your top four ratings and where it is?  Timeform and RPR have it top rated and @richard-westwood has it in 2nd place.  I haven't decided whether to risk even one point on this race yet 

Native Trail comes in at 219, Strange you are looking at this and @richard-westwoodfigures and cant see a bet? he has lusail, i have lusail, and its 50/1 ermm if you cant see an ew bet there i doubt you will ever see one, you back 2/1 ish losers all year but you wont risk a 50/1 (10/1 place) loser? With respect and being light hearted my friend i think your head needs a bit of a reset. richard and i have 3 of the same from 4 from actual ratings it doesnt matter if they all come last because at least you see 2 reasons to have a bet. or alternatively just get your darts out and fire away. Ok people will argue all day that obrien and appleby have all the aces thats 4 bets all at short ish odds and a good way of reaching the poor house. on all evidence Obrien horses are regulaly talked up and end up getting beat by a second or third string, Appleby is more reliable on that front but even he with a huge strike rate had a 1/4 loser yesterday. This Guineas looks really tough on paper so the price of the horse you back in it should reflect that. its all about value and for me there is no value in the 1st 3 in the betting. For info purposes my figures also include the figures for stopwatch in the rp so in effect you have 3 sets of ratings  all with similar indicaters.

[azzybear]

Bolsover bill 1.45

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Native Trail comes in at 219, Strange you are looking at this and @richard-westwoodfigures and cant see a bet? he has lusail, i have lusail, and its 50/1 ermm if you cant see an ew bet there i doubt you will ever see one, you back 2/1 ish losers all year but you wont risk a 50/1 (10/1 place) loser? With respect and being light hearted my friend i think your head needs a bit of a reset. richard and i have 3 of the same from 4 from actual ratings it doesnt matter if they all come last because at least you see 2 reasons to have a bet. or alternatively just get your darts out and fire away. Ok people will argue all day that obrien and appleby have all the aces thats 4 bets all at short ish odds and a good way of reaching the poor house. on all evidence Obrien horses are regulaly talked up and end up getting beat by a second or third string, Appleby is more reliable on that front but even he with a huge strike rate had a 1/4 loser yesterday. This Guineas looks really tough on paper so the price of the horse you back in it should reflect that. its all about value and for me there is no value in the 1st 3 in the betting. For info purposes my figures also include the figures for stopwatch in the rp so in effect you have 3 sets of ratings  all with similar indicaters.

Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus.  I would have had a 1 point win cover bet on Native Trail but having seen the light I have now had a 1 pt 5 places cover bet on Lusail at 5.8 for a profit of 4.70.  It may be useful for you to re-check your rating system as it seems way off course with Native Trail.  Only trying to help ?    

[azzybear]

singing banjo 2.35

[azzybear]

eydon 3.40 ew native trail probs wins but just looking for some value this horse did win comfortably so should have a ew chance today 

[Nigwilliam]

Hex 750 Koi Dodville 2/1 bet365 

6th.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Nigwilliam
Result

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

4.39 Uttx Found On 2/1

7.50 Hex Ellaat 2/1

8.20 Hex Fourth Of July 7/2

1 x 4 pt win bet = poss return of 76.50

Cover Bets:

4.39 Uttx Shetland Bus 1 pt at 4.10

7.50 Hex Paddy The Horse 1 pt win at 11/2

8.20 Hex Present Storm 1 pt win at 10.0

Other bets

4.05 Uttx Hunters Call 1 pt win at 8.163

5.15 Hex Ribeye 1 pt win at 8.0

PL Members bets

3.40 Nm Coroebus 1 pt win at 6/1 and Lusail 5 TBC 1 pt at 5.8

Total stakes = 11 points

If nothing else I have sought out the best prices I can find for this lot

Good luck to all today

[Bang on]

Busy day today so no added comments etc.

1.00 Thirsk - Zuffolo - 7/4

4.15 Nmkt - Contact - 9/4

4.55 Good - State Legend - 9/4

[Bang on]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

It'd be rude not to have a bet on the 1st official day of UK Jumps racing ? 

620 Hexham - DOLLY DANCER 7/2 

WON this same race off 9lb higher last year, I've had an investment.

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

NEWM	2.25	Movin Time (8)	9/2
NEWM	3.00	Twilight Calls (12)	4/1
NEWM	3.40	Luxembourg (4)	13/2

[kensland]

Newmarket. 

Double 

1.15.Umm Kulthum.     7/2.. 1st 

1.50.Jumby.              13/2.. 6th 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus.  I would have had a 1 point win cover bet on Native Trail but having seen the light I have now had a 1 pt 5 places cover bet on Lusail at 5.8 for a profit of 4.70.  It may be useful for you to re-check your rating system as it seems way off course with Native Trail.  Only trying to help ?    

Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.

I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

[The Equaliser]

5 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.

I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

The answer is very simple.  Native Trail is Timeform's top rated for today.  It is also RPR's top rated and finally @richard-westwood's second top rated.  You have simply got it wrong for Native Trail and if this means that all your other ratings are off, then you need to re-assess them.  Plain and simple.  If you don't accept this I am afraid you are arrogant.

The only faults that the pundits could find with Native Trail were will it handle the "dip" and the firmer going.  I hope that this proves to be so and no one more than me would like to see your selections romp home to prove all the experts wrong.   Good luck

[Zilzalian]

8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

The answer is very simple.  Native Trail is Timeform's top rated for today.  It is also RPR's top rated and finally @richard-westwood's second top rated.  You have simply got it wrong for Native Trail and if this means that all your other ratings are off, then you need to re-assess them.  Plain and simple.  If you don't accept this I am afraid you are arrogant.

The only faults that the pundits could find with Native Trail were will it handle the "dip" and the firmer going.  I hope that this proves to be so and no one more than me would like to see your selections romp home to prove all the experts wrong.   Good luck

Well arrogance aside which i really am guilty of, my ratings make money year in and year out its the other rubbish i fiddle about with that costs me money, look at your answer to my question. it has nothing to do with your thinking or opinion apart from reading other peoples "stuff" and amplifying it. maybe thats why you keep losing money year on year which means other people lose it for you. I love the fact i came up with an idea learnt how to create formula in excel, put it into practice and it was succesful. you have spent 11 points today if all your selections win how much overall will you collect? dont forget your double handed with some of your points so apart from a dead heat you have already backed losers before they run.

[Bang on]

34 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.

I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

Whatever happens, I too would expect Native Trail to figure high in any ratings. 

5 races, 5 wins, including over CD. Already a Group 1 winner, and has won on the going. Not to mention the trainer who is as hot as any at the moment IMO. I have no problem with anyone going against the favourite, but wouldn't expect him not to figure.

[MCLARKE]

I agree, I ignore other people's opinions and rely on my own analysis, it's produced profits for me over the years, to win I think you have to go against the crowd.

[MCLARKE]

Punchestown trends. Only 3 years data to base this on but I need some method to pick some selections for the tipsters competition.

3.10 Last ran < 34 days ago 1 from 39

Odds < 16/1, 1 from 28

This leaves 2, FAKIR and EASYLAND

Weight < 10st 12lbs, 1 from 31

This leaves EASYLAND at 25/1, 4 places

3.50

Beaten favourite, 0 from 2

1st last time, 2 from 5, AE 1.43

Odds > 2/1, 1 from 19

This leaves EPATANTE at 5/6

4.25

Weight < 11st 1lb, 0 from 29

This leaves POPONG, WEST CORK WILDWAY, TEN TEN and PHOENIX WAY

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 0 from 30

This leaves PHOENIX WAY at 8/1, 4 places

5.00

Not in 1st 3 last time, 0 from 9

Last ran > 23 days ago, 1 from 10

This leaves INNATENDUE at 66/1