Racing chat -weds 27th April

[richard-westwood]

340 punch 

Outback flyer   8.0 18/1 

Krabat  7.8  18/1 

Whosgotyanow  7.6  16/1 

Vera verto  7.3  22/1 

3pt wins top 3 ....12 x .5 forecasts ...24 x 10p tricasts 

 

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Double. 

1.35.Pangloss.      5/2..... 1st 

2.45.Benjamine Bear. .....   13/2.... 2nd 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited April 27, 2022 by kensland

[cannotbebeat]

3.00 Ascot - Kings Joy 100/30

5.55 Punchestown - Clan des Obeaux 6/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 4.30

ACROSS THE NILE 7/4

 

[kensland]

Punchestown. 

Double. 

3.40.Thanksforthehelp.         9/2.... 3rd 

4.15.I A Connect.                   7/1.... Fell 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited April 27, 2022 by kensland

[Nigwilliam]

Asc 510 Han Solo Berger 14/1 skybet 4pl 

Wol 245 Midgetonamission 22/1 skybet

[MCLARKE]

Punchestown day 2 trends

3.40

Finished in 1st 2 last time, 1 from 38

Top 15 in weights, 1 from 87

Ran less than 20 days ago, 0 from 46

This leaves 5, ROCK ROAD, STUMPTOWN, COOLCULLEN, VERA VERTO and LUCKY TENNER

Age 10 or 11, 2 from 13, AE 10.71

This leaves ROCK ROAD at 12/1

4.45

Odds 10/1 to 22/1, 3 from 22, AE 2.78

Age = 5, 3 from 19, AE 1.63

This leaves MERLIN GIANT at 16/1

5.20

Favourite 4 from 6, AE 1.87

This leaves 1, THE NICE GUY, at 9/4

5.55

1st last time, 4 from 9, AE 1.92

Odds > 3/1, 2 from 40

This leaves ALLAHO at 6/4

6.30

Not bred in Ireland, 0 from 20

1st last time, 2 from 28

Last ran more than 42 days ago, 1 from 29

Not in 1st 3 last time, 0 from 24

This leaves AMERICAN MIKE at 3/1

7.05

Last ran more than 27 days ago, 1 from 51

Top 5 in betting, 1 from 36

Finished 5th to 11th last time, 4 from 35, AE 2.20

This leaves THE WEST'S AWAKE at 33/1, 4 places

 

 

[Bang on]

3.00 Ascot - Grande Dame - 10/3 - Had a message for this one.

3.35 Ascot - Wordsworth - 2/1 - A. O'Brien's only runner at Ascot today and seems well up to it if on form.

5.35 Bri - Naughty Nadine - 11/4 - One I have tracked.

also

Yesterdays flop runs again ?

7.15 Bri - Beau Geste - 3/1 - 5lb below winning mark with top course trainer (today), surely will be winning soon.

and 2 x apprentice races which I treat with caution - Both from a selection method I use.

2.00 Ponte - King of Tonga - 10/11

6.40 Bri - Lady Elysia - 5/4

[azzybear]

dapper man 2.00 conron 3.40 ew

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is

2.45 Wolv Fealess Boy 9/4

3.20 Wolv Rosberry Topping 11/4

4.30 Wolv Accross The Nile 9/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 74.52 pts

I have copied @richard-westwoodselections for the forecasts in the 3.40 Pun for 10p = £1.20 but couldn't resist doing the top 4 in the market for forecasts as well for £1.20.  Should be fun to watch

I have done some other tricasts and forecasts but won't list them here

Total book bets = 4 pts.  Not counting the other multiple bets.  I should have done some win bets but no time as it's my wife's birthday today and I need to cook her fillet steak as a treat

 

[fd1972uk]

10/1 treble

Wordsworth, allaho and facile vega

mus 1925  lord of the glen ew

Mback non place 1720 pun

Bronn and hollow games

Mb 2/3 pun 1645 classic Getaway 

 

Good luck all. 

[The Brigadier]

Thursday's daily Racing Tips are now on-line on the pinned thread.

[Zilzalian]

If your fear of backing a loser is greater than your desire to back a winner you will never win long term.

[roger2256]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is

2.45 Wolv Fealess Boy 9/4

3.20 Wolv Rosberry Topping 11/4

4.30 Wolv Accross The Nile 9/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 74.52 pts

I have copied @richard-westwoodselections for the forecasts in the 3.40 Pun for 10p = £1.20 but couldn't resist doing the top 4 in the market for forecasts as well for £1.20.  Should be fun to watch

I have done some other tricasts and forecasts but won't list them here

Total book bets = 4 pts.  Not counting the other multiple bets.  I should have done some win bets but no time as it's my wife's birthday today and I need to cook her fillet steak as a treat

 

There's a lot of fillet steaks in - 200 + in this year alone , if a fillet steak is a treat for her you may need to reassess your priorities especially if she's not in the best of health 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, roger2256 said:

There's a lot of fillet steaks in - 200 + in this year alone , if a fillet steak is a treat for her you may need to reassess your priorities especially if she's not in the best of health 

I was hoping to recoup 74 points today but @MCLARKEAW selection let me down.  Only kidding.  Many thanks for your concern but 200 points is only £200 quid.  I'm more concerned with being hit with £670 costs per week which I have heard is the going rate for 2 carers coming in 4 times a day to attend on my wife

[Bang on]

7 hours ago, Bang on said:

3.00 Ascot - Grande Dame - 10/3 - Had a message for this one.

3.35 Ascot - Wordsworth - 2/1 - A. O'Brien's only runner at Ascot today and seems well up to it if on form.

5.35 Bri - Naughty Nadine - 11/4 - One I have tracked.

also

Yesterdays flop runs again ?

7.15 Bri - Beau Geste - 3/1 - 5lb below winning mark with top course trainer (today), surely will be winning soon.

and 2 x apprentice races which I treat with caution - Both from a selection method I use.

2.00 Ponte - King of Tonga - 10/11

6.40 Bri - Lady Elysia - 5/4

Grand Dame - WON 10/3

Wordsworth - lost

Naughty Nadine - lost

Beau Geste - lost (but ran much better beaten a length)

King of Tonga - WON Evens

Lady Elysia - WON 13/8

 

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

If your fear of backing a loser is greater than your desire to back a winner you will never win long term.

Too true, a month or so back I hit a sticky patch and ended up reducing my stake.... hit a couple of winners and thought WTF am I doing. Either hit it hard and be aggressive or take a break. Decided to be aggressive and I'm back on track.

If you can't place your normal stake (whatever that is) .. is it really a bet ?

[kensland]

Musselburgh. 

Double. 

8.25.Graces Quest. ... 15/8

7.25.The Gloaming.                 11/2

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

[roger2256]

.

Edited April 27, 2022 by roger2256
Text

[roger2256]

59 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I was hoping to recoup 74 points today but @MCLARKEAW selection let me down.  Only kidding.  Many thanks for your concern but 200 points is only £200 quid.  I'm more concerned with being hit with £670 costs per week which I have heard is the going rate for 2 carers coming in 4 times a day to attend on my wife

If you are able bodied and have all your facilities then you should not need them , do it yourself,  I did and gave her dignity right though to holding her hand when she took her last breath so less of the crap and do your duty . If you dare dispute me I'll put a picture up of minutes after death .

[Zilzalian]

14 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Too true, a month or so back I hit a sticky patch and ended up reducing my stake.... hit a couple of winners and thought WTF am I doing. Either hit it hard and be aggressive or take a break. Decided to be aggressive and I'm back on track.

If you can't place your normal stake (whatever that is) .. is it really a bet ?

There are many with counter arguments (with the exception of the double your bank double your stake, half your bank half your stakes which is a sound system) I personally i think you are in the wrong game if you can't take a loss or losses for the very reasons you state. If you have an edge and if it is slieght edge then reducing your stake removes that edge and gives it to sod's law. Also again from a personal point of view, if you have to cover bets you make your on a hiding to nothing and will lose even short term. the simple way is to identify your bank and expect or be prepared to lose it, that may sound counter intuitive but as long as your not pin sticking apart from pulling your hair out now and again long term you will enjoy the successes that you have far more than cry about your loses. The main thing about betting and in particular in my case on horse racing i have a simple answer to my critics and that is this, It is my hobby, hobbies cost money but in my case i can occasionally make money which i can't do spending my money on nights out or fancy dinners or nights on the lash. the moral is as they always say, dont bet what you cant afford or are prepared to lose. Yes i agree that taking a break is far better than reducing yourstakes because once you reduce your stakes you are in effect admitting defeat as opposed to reassessing why you are losing which you can do far better by taking that break.

[The Equaliser]

41 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

If you are able bodied and have all your facilities then you should not need them , do it yourself,  I did and gave her dignity right though to holding her hand when she took her last breath so less of the crap and do your duty . If you dare dispute me I'll put a picture up of minutes after death .

I am not so able bodied.  You don't seem to understand.  My wife needs two people to attend her needs.  If she wants to be placed in a recliner chair she needs to be hoisted into it by two carer's.  Even if I was able bodied I would not be allowed to move her as I haven't been trained to do so.  If she fell and hurt herself in my care I would be blamed for taking matters into my own hands when I wasn't qualified.  These are the rules of today.  And, in case you still don't understand I am doing my duty.

[MCLARKE]

I think record keeping is essential.

If you haven't made a profit over a 12 month period then I would reduce my stakes to a minimum.

Otherwise increase your stakes gradually as your bank increases.

Be realistic, you are unlikely to make a life changing profit from betting but any profit is always a good feeling.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I think record keeping is essential.

If you haven't made a profit over a 12 month period then I would reduce my stakes to a minimum.

Otherwise increase your stakes gradually as your bank increases.

Be realistic, you are unlikely to make a life changing profit from betting but any profit is always a good feeling.

You are indeed correct in my opinion about if you haven't made a profit in 12 months then surely something is wrong so you must reduce your stakes and more. I also agree that it really is essential that you keep records. This is not contary to what i said but maybe i should have included a timeframe that can be as low as 3 or 6 months if you bet daily but definitely give up what you are doing and try something different if it stretches to a year. last year i made a slight loss so went over the years records and identified "wasted" bets which usually happenned after a decent win and i got a bit giddy for want of a better word.

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, roger2256 said:

If you are able bodied and have all your facilities then you should not need them , do it yourself,  I did and gave her dignity right though to holding her hand when she took her last breath so less of the crap and do your duty . If you dare dispute me I'll put a picture up of minutes after death .

Your words are a bit harsh Roger we all have different circumstances and i applaud you for what you did. My wife, a bonny girl, had a tripple heart bypass and an infection thereafter, i have quite severe copd and although i managed with help from the kids and friends it was both mentally and physically exhausting.

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is

2.45 Wolv Fealess Boy 9/4

3.20 Wolv Rosberry Topping 11/4

4.30 Wolv Accross The Nile 9/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 74.52 pts

I have copied @richard-westwoodselections for the forecasts in the 3.40 Pun for 10p = £1.20 but couldn't resist doing the top 4 in the market for forecasts as well for £1.20.  Should be fun to watch

I have done some other tricasts and forecasts but won't list them here

Total book bets = 4 pts.  Not counting the other multiple bets.  I should have done some win bets but no time as it's my wife's birthday today and I need to cook her fillet steak as a treat

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A bit of a pity that Across the Nile weakened and lost.  The RP Spotlight man was right about the trip being wrong for it today.  The double returned £12.19 so a net profit of £8.19.  MTD  = -63.95 and YTD = - 219.76

I was unlucky not to collect on the 3.40 at Punch.  The favourite looked nailed on to get at least second on the run-in but Rock Road got the better of it.  I had some other returns on forecasts and tricasts that I did for fun but did not recover total stakes.

I believe that the Forecasts and Tricasts returns are based on betting odds taken at the time.  I also believe that Trifectas are based upon the pooled fund at the track.  I am not sure which is best.  I suppose it depends on how much money is put in the pool at the track and punters not at the track have to go with betting odds on bet365.

In relation to bet365 Forecasts and Tricasts I am just wondering what the break even combined odds are required for a forecast and the combined odds for a tricast are?    Perhaps @richard-westwoodor @Zilzaliancan tell me?

 

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

A bit of a pity that Across the Nile weakened and lost.  The RP Spotlight man was right about the trip being wrong for it today.  The double returned £12.19 so a net profit of £8.19.  MTD  = -63.95 and YTD = - 219.76

I was unlucky not to collect on the 3.40 at Punch.  The favourite looked nailed on to get at least second on the run-in but Rock Road got the better of it.  I had some other returns on forecasts and tricasts that I did for fun but did not recover total stakes.

I believe that the Forecasts and Tricasts returns are based on betting odds taken at the time.  I also believe that Trifectas are based upon the pooled fund at the track.  I am not sure which is best.  I suppose it depends on how much money is put in the pool at the track and punters not at the track have to go with betting odds on bet365.

In relation to bet365 Forecasts and Tricasts I am just wondering what the break even combined odds are required for a forecast and the combined odds for a tricast are?    Perhaps @richard-westwoodor @Zilzaliancan tell me?

 

 

well i would assume as long as no odds on, there would be no break even shots only wins because even, fav 2nd fav 3rd fav would produce a profit same for f/c. with respect, if your going to play that safe it/they are not the bets for you. trust me you will never win long term with short odds, with fc and tc's. On a separate note i am curious. how many losing days have you had compared to winning days? i would seriously consider scrapping everything i am doing and rethink everything if it is 75% or over which i suspect it is. you really need to break the cycle. Friendly advice. why not try combining 3 on here and try them in a trixie or because of the bigger price of richard a patent without the cover bets, they get plenty of winners and you know who they are if you include one of @richard-westwooddecent prices and say @MCLARKEselection and one of any other, i suspect you will pick up the odd good payout steering clear of odds on shots. its got to be worth a 6 month trial at less than 10 points per day. or even a patent plus the 3 win bets for a cost of 10 points.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Zilzalian

[The Equaliser]

55 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

well i would assume as long as no odds on, there would be no break even shots only wins because even, fav 2nd fav 3rd fav would produce a profit same for f/c. with respect, if your going to play that safe it/they are not the bets for you. trust me you will never win long term with short odds, with fc and tc's. On a separate note i am curious. how many losing days have you had compared to winning days? i would seriously consider scrapping everything i am doing and rethink everything if it is 75% or over which i suspect it is. you really need to break the cycle. Friendly advice. why not try combining 3 on here and try them in a trixie or because of the bigger price of richard a patent without the cover bets, they get plenty of winners and you know who they are if you include one of @richard-westwooddecent prices and say @MCLARKEselection and one of any other, i suspect you will pick up the odd good payout steering clear of odds on shots. its got to be worth a 6 month trial at less than 10 points per day. or even a patent plus the 3 win bets for a cost of 10 points.

I can't give you a definitive reply to this but don't wish to ignore your very helpful comments.

The idea I have is in essence quite simple.  All I have been doing is trying to find some win bets to pay for my daily Trixie bets which I enjoy. 

If you ever look at the Adrian Massey stats you will see various strategies which show returns of something like 87p in the pound etc. if one follows through with them.  However, most of the betting public do not even achieve such small losses.  Quite often they lose their shirts whilst betting.  My aim is to find a method where one has fun with betting and at least break even over a period of time.

My losses so far this year is 219.76 point or pounds as I point represents £1.  I have been betting for 117 days so far.  This means that it has cost me £1.88 per day.  £220 for 3-4 hours a day entertainment seems pretty good value to me.  Had  I been buying the Racing Post I would have been paying £4.20 per day and £4.50 on Saturdays and that is before placing any bets at all.

I would have of course liked and would like to make a small profit over the year and that it is still my aim.  Placing Trixie bets will always have long losing sequences so I am still optimistic about at least getting back to break even over the next eight months.

I may be a bit of a dreamer by trying out different strategies using real money but as I have said loads of times I just cannot paper trade after spending time trying to find some winners.  And, as you can see, even if I don't make a profit over the year I will not have spent a lot of money in relation to other people who blow thousands of pounds on expensive holidays etc.  

Many thanks once again for your thoughts