Grand National 9th April 2022

[FleetFanatic]

Hope I'm not too early to start a thread for this. Now Cheltenham has been & gone, unless anything is running tomorrow, the list below is my usual trends-based, 99-rating scores.
Didn't get the winner last year, after previously doing well before that, so hopefully get back on track.
Will update this first post as runners get withdrawn - for now it is the current first 40 on the racecard. Interested in anything scoring 90 or over.
Currently 7 meet that, normally I just wait until the big day & hope bet365 do their usual half stakes back & do 10 for the price of 5, as it were.

Edit 1: 19/03 - in my rush to post, I neglected to factor in those who have had a non-chase run for fitness. As a result, 2 more selections join the 90+ score (currently 9 in total). Only changes from this point onwards will be for withdrawals.

Edit 2: 22/03 - to reflect the revised weights - this means some runners lost points due to no longer meeting the weights trend. Interesting to see Cloth Cap - last year's favourite - meeting the trends still - the only thing dampening down that one's score s that's the best / least worse performance it has had this year wasn't in the last 3 runs.

Edit 3: 06/04 - reflecting Chris's Dream withdrawal whilst top weight - means we lost Fiddlerontheroof as a 90+ quailifier due to a change is weight carried. Have listed 42 as it has already been stated that Death Duty will replace Battleoverdoyen & Court Maid is also ruled out.

Edit 4: 07/04 - to reflect the final 48 hour declarations - I also got 3 or 4 ratings near the bottom of the card incorrect (forgot to factor their weight increasign met they now met a trend) - this has been fixed & all ratings shown I am happy with.

Edit 5: 07/04 - the columns copied & pasted out of line - corrected.

Edit 6: 08/04 - 3 last withdrawals - reserves used now rated

(8 that rate 90+)
 

1 Minella Times (IRE) 9-11-10 Henry de Bromhead IRE	74
2 Delta Work (FR) 9-11-09 Gordon Elliott IRE	81
3 Schoolboy Hours 9-10-05	81
4 Any Second Now (IRE) 10-11-08 Ted Walsh IRE	83
5 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8-11-07 Gordon Elliott IRE	72
6 Lostintranslation (IRE) 10-11-06 Colin Tizzard	81
7 Brahma Bull (IRE) 11-11-06 Willie Mullins IRE	65
8 Burrows Saint (FR) 9-11-05 Willie Mullins IRE	81
9 Mount Ida (IRE) 8-11-05 Gordon Elliott IRE	81
10 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8-11-04 Martin Brassil	72
11 Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 8-11-04 Colin Tizzard	81
12 Two For Gold (IRE) 9-11-03 Kim Bailey	72
13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry	90
14 Samcro (IRE) 10-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE	72
15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE	99
16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies	90
17 Roman de Senam 10-10-05	63
18 Coko Beach (FR) 7-10-13 Gordon Elliott IRE	70
19 De Rasher Counter (GB) 10-10-12 Emma Lavelle	83
20 Kildisart (IRE) 10-10-11 Ben Pauling	81
21 Discorama (FR) 9-10-11 Paul Nolan IRE	83
22 Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10-10-11 Philip Kirby	65
23 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 8-10-11 Ciaran Murphy IRE	83
24 Anibale Fly (FR) 12-10-11 Tony Martin IRE	88
25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson	99
26 Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10-10-10 Dermot McLoughlin IRE	67
27 Class Conti (FR) 10-10-10 Willie Mullins IRE	65
28 Noble Yeats (IRE) 7-10-10 Emmet Mullins IRE	52
29 Mighty Thunder (GB) 9-10-10 Lucinda Russell	83
30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill	90
31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon	92
32 Agusta Gold (IRE) 9-10-09 Willie Mullins IRE	81
33 Commodore 10-10-5	83
34 Deise Aba (IRE) 9-10-08 Philip Hobbs	74
35 Blaklion (GB) 13-10-08 Dan Skelton	79
36 Poker Party (FR) 10-10-08 Henry de Bromhead	65
37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE	99
38 Domaine de L'Isle (FR) 9-10-06 Sean Curran	81
39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle	99
40 Fortescue (GB) 8-10-05 Henry Daly	56

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by FleetFanatic
Update.

[FleetFanatic]

Top 2 in the weights are withdrawn, this may change a few ratings as the weights get revised.

[fd1972uk]

Think one of the favs will win it, dont see it going to a horse any bigger than possibly 20s, maybe 25s at best dependant on how reasonable the bookies odds are. 

[FleetFanatic]

6 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Think one of the favs will win it, dont see it going to a horse any bigger than possibly 20s, maybe 25s at best dependant on how reasonable the bookies odds are. 

Whilst you might be proved to be correct - why? Markets are manipulated by money. Reasoning cannot be made purely just based on price.

[calva decoy]

With Bet365 already NRNB I've had a small sentimental each way 6 places at 33's on 2019 3rd in the Scottish National CLOTH CAP & will wait until the big day where in previous years the above bookie have offered 50% off bets or kind of bogof deals .

 

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, calva decoy said:

With Bet365 already NRNB I've had a small sentimental each way 6 places at 33's on 2019 3rd in the Scottish National CLOTH CAP & will wait until the big day where in previous years the above bookie have offered 50% off bets or kind of bogof deals .

Yep I think as usual we are all waiting for the BET365 Aintree offer.

[fd1972uk]

On 3/24/2022 at 2:54 PM, FleetFanatic said:

Whilst you might be proved to be correct - why? Markets are manipulated by money. Reasoning cannot be made purely just based on price.

Yeah your indeed correct, just looking at horses atm believe they wont drift way over. 

Won last year with Minella Times but would be mightily shocked if it won again, may actually opt for a few ew bets which I usually dont bother with. 

[Villa Chris]

Apart from Minella Times and Any Second Now I’ll be putting a line through any other horses that have ran in the National before. Minella Times needs respecting as a winner the year before although the form after not so good. Any Second Now was badly hampered last year running a big race and is in good form . The days of looking at horses with experience over the National fences has gone imo. You need a special type of horse still but fortunately it’s not the same race it used to be. More less exposed horses over 3m  are coming into the equation.

[fd1972uk]

Yeah thinking delta work and any second now, run wild fred. 

And then looking at some that might catch my eye. 

Looking forward to Scottish next week too. 

[black rabbit]

had 1/6 pt ew 80/1  anibale fly  last week  have punted him last couple times he lined up in this race 

[azzybear]

court maid ew

[azzybear]

also on burrows saint ew

[Hotspur88]

Longhouse Poet for me @ 33/1

Apparently been schooling well at home.

Will likely have a few more nearer the off. If the rain comes then Snow Leopardess should be bang there. 

Just the one selection for me so far but will post anything else I back nearer the off.

[The Brigadier]

The 2022 Grand National is this Saturday at 5.15 and with the ground currently good to soft with an unsettled forecast it looks likely to be run on slow ground which obviously is what the majority want. Only 40 can run so I’ve only covered the runners down to number 46 as its highly unlikely anything below that number will make the cut. Here’s an early horse by horse analysis with final summary.

 

MINELLA TIMES Was a fairytale winner for Rachael Blackmore when winning this last year off of a stone lower mark when coming into the race in decent form. Shown nothing in two starts this season and has questions to answer now.

DELTA WORK A classy type who’s won five Grade ones in his time. Took to the cross country course well when winning at the Cheltenham Festival from stable companion Tiger Roll. Has never run in a handicap over fences and should stay well. Has to be on the short list.

EASYLAND One of 9 JP McManus owned runners. Was a smart cross country performer for D Cottin when trained in France but since joining Jonjo O’Neill has shown nothing in two hurdles and a chase. Hard to fancy.

ANY SECOND NOW Was going well when badly hampered by a faller at the 12th in this race last year. Recovered to finish third beaten 8 1/4L by Minella Times and could be considered unlucky. 7lb higher now but 7lb better off with the winner. Prepped for this by winning Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February and high on the long short list.

RUN WILD FRED One of 14 runners from the Gordon Elliott stable. Smart sort who has some decent recent form in grade one company. Was runner up in 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham last time. A consistent sort who’s not out of this on his first try at 4m plus.

LOSTINTRANSLATION One of two Colin Tizzard entries. Looked good when winning at Ascot last November on his re-appearance but shown little on last two starts and yet to race behind 3m 2F. Needs to improve.

BRHAMA BULL One of 5 trained by master Irish trainer Willie Mullins. Has some good back form but yet to,prove he’ll stay as far as this. Last seen when a 20/1 shot unseating 12 from home in the Cheltenham Cross Country won by Delta Work.

BATTLEOVERDOYEN Won over three miles in December 2019 but primarily kept to shorter trips since and stamina is a big doubt here.

BURROWS SAINT Ran 4th (beaten 27L) in this race last year and is 1lb lower now. Remote third behind Any Second Now and Escaria Ten in Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse last time which was very disappointing and doesn’t look good enough.

MOUNT IDA Yet to race behind 3m 2F but that was when winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 13 months ago. Kept to shorter trips since and was disappointing in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham on latest run. Stamina to prove.

LONGHOUSE POET Lightly raced (this will be his 14th career run) and won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January, 10lb higher now. Prepped for this with a quiet run in a grade 2 hurdle race at Navan in February.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF Consistent 8 year old trained by Colin Tizzard. Runner up in two big handicap chases following a Charlie Parker Memorial Chase win at Carlisle on his re-appearance. Yet to try beyond 3m 2F but if staying has ew claims.

TWO FOR GOLD Consistent 9 year old who ran a career best last time at Ascot in the Ascot Chase when running the smart Fakir D’oudairies to just under two lengths with some smart types behind. 50/1 today looks a big price on that run but he does have stamina to prove as he’s yet to run beyond three miles and two furlongs.

SANTINI Only beaten a neck in 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup by Al Boum Photo. Now with Polly Gundry and was 8th in this years renewal. Surprisingly has yet to race beyond 3m 2F but shapes like a thorough stayer.

SAMCRO Has become a disappointing horse and is yet another who has stamina to prove. The furthest he’s raced over was last time out at Down Royal when cutting out approaching the last over 3m 2F.

FARCLAS 5th last year beaten 29L and now 6lb higher. Good second in Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan last time out in November and off since. Will no doubt be staying on when others have cried off but unlikely to be good enough.

ESCARIA TEN Lightly raced eight year old who ran one of todays favourites Any Second Now to a nose at Fairyhouse in the Bobbyjo in February over 3m 1F and only a pound worse off here. Was 3rd in 2021 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham so todays trip should be within his compass and has claims for Max McNeill.

GOOD BYE BOBBY Having a good season in handicaps rising 12lb having won twice at Wetherby. Yet to race beyond 3m 1F and doesn’t appeal as an out and out stayer. One of four entries for Messrs Souede and Munir.

LORD DU MESNIL 50/1 when pulled up last year and nothing to suggest since that that won’t be the same scenario this time round.

COKO BEACH One of 9 Gigginstown runners here. 59L behind Any Day Now and Escaria Ten in Bobbyjo Chase last time and impossible to fancy on this year’s efforts.

DE RASHER COUNTER Some smart back form having won the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury from the same handicap mark. Had issues since but showed some promise on re-appearance in Denman Chase at Newbury, his first for 16 months and is a lively outsider if back his best.

CARIBEAN BOY Disappointed last time at Ascot having previously won at Kempton. Has yet to race beyond three miles so there has to be stamina worries. Went off favourite for last season’s Topham Chase and was pulled up.

COURT MAID First run for Henry De Bromhead (previously with Thomas Mullins). Has won over 3m 5F in the past and was 9th (beaten 24L) in last seasons Irish Grand National. Would need a trainer upgrade to have a chance here.

KILDISART Another double green Souede & Munir owned runner. Ran with promise on first run for 462 days when 4th beaten 23L in Greatwood Gold cup at Newbury last month. Yet to race beyond 3m 2F.

DISCORAMA Went off 16/1 when a well beaten 7th last year and back for another crack off of a 1lb lower mark. Only weakened approaching the last but no reason to believe he will run any better this time around.

TOP VILLE BEN Not the force of old. Fell nine from home when 33/1 in Becher Chase last December and has sfound some form since back over hurdles. Big ask here.

ENJOY D’ALLEN Third in last season’s Irish Grand National and finished in same position in Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Prepped for this with a 5th in valuable 3m handicap hurdle in February and interestingly has been sold since to JP McManus. Trip should suit and is an interesting runner.

ANIBALE FLY Another JP runner. Was never going when a 28/1 chance in last years race and shown nothing this season to suggest the result will be any different.

DINGO DOLLAR Runner up in last season’s Scottish National off of the same mark. Stays very well and wouldn’t want the ground to turn too soft. Could outrun his odds as stays so well.

FREEWHEELING DYLAN Won Last season’s Irish Grand National at 150/1 and races off of a 10lb higher mark today. Shown little in cross country handicap chase and handicap hurdle this season and although he’ll stay will be a shock were he to win this.

CLASS CONTI Finished 15th last year when 66/1 and has shown nothing in three runs this season to suggest the result will be any different.

NOBLE YEATS Only his 8th start over fences with the pick of them his runner up to Ahoy Senor in Towton Novices’ Chase in February. Flopped in Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham since. Never raced beyond 3m 1F and has stamina to prove.

MIGHTY THUNDER Winner of last season’s Scottish Grand National off of a 3lb lower mark from Dingo Dollar. Pulled up on last two starts and needs a drying week as best in a sound surface.

CLOTH CAP Went off 11/2 favourite last year when pulling up having made a noise. Had his wind done since but doesn’t look the same horse to be honest. Drying ground would probably suit.

SNOW LEOPARDESS Back from the breeding barns this season to win all three of her starts including over these unique fences when winning the Becher Chase here over 3m 2F and now 7lb higher. Was 4th in 2021 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham so looks like she’ll stay and bids to become the first mare to win the National in many years. A definite player.

AGUSTA GOLD Another Willie Mullins runner. Should stay ok as was runner up on bottomless ground in 3m 4F Punchestown Grand National Trial a couple of years ago. Recent form however leaves her with plenty to find.

PHOENIX WAY Trainer Harry Fry in scintillating form (5 wins from last 9 runners) and only lightly raced with this being his 12th career start. Trying longer trip for first time (yet to race beyond 3m 1F) though did fall heavily last time.

DEISA ABA In decent enough form this season finishing runner up over hurdles as well as two handicap chases. His best runs have all come at Sandown.

BLAKLION Has tackled this event in the past finishing 6th last year, brought down at first in 2018 and was 4th (beaten 8 3/4L) in 2017. Is best on very soft and if it turned into a muddy slog would play into his hands. 13 years old now mind and maybe too old to win.

POKER PARTY Back from 666 day absence and shown nothing in three starts (handicap hurdle, handicap chase and cross country handicap) also has stamina to prove. No chance.

DEATH DUTY Winner of Punchestown Grand National Trial in February. Wasn’t disgraced in Ultima at Cheltenham when 6th. Stamina is his forte and holds each way claims although is reportedly been aimed at Irish National.

DOMANE DE L’ISLE Soundly beaten Eider last time on first attempt at a marathon trip and makes no appeal here.

ECLAIR SURF Stays very well and his two recent handicap efforts have been franked by Gericault Roque in Classic Chase whom he beat 13L and Win My Wings who beat him 1 3/4L in the Eider and has bolted up since in the Scottish National. Big chance if making the final 40.

FORTESCUE Comes here in good form having won at Ascot (4lb higher here). Yet to try marathon trip but shoes as though he’ll stay ok.

COMMODORE Goes well fresh so a 120 day absence since last seen shouldn’t be seen as a negative. Impressive when winning that day at Cheltenham winning by 15L. Has back form with Snow Leopardess that suggests this grey shouldn’t be dismissed if getting a run.

SCHOOL BOY HOURS Well backed when making a bad mistake four from home and pulled up in Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Trainer had previously stated that he though he was a serious National horse. Claims if he makes the final cut.

ROMAIN DE SENAM Pulled up in Midlands National on first run for Pipe having previously been with Dan Skelton. Stamina a major issue.

ROI MAGE Beat Agusta Gold last time and plenty to find on that form

 

Summary:-

Ireland have won 4 of the last 5 renewals and last season had 10 of the first 11 home. Obviously when we get the final declaration on Thursday lunchtime the bookmakers are likely to be pushing out enhanced places and on the day more than likely to push some of the front ones out so I’m not suggesting a bet at this stage. My short list comprises of Any Second Now who was unlucky in last year’s race, Éclair Surf (needs 3 to come out to get a run) who’s form looks solid, Enjoy D’Allen,  Commodore who goes well fresh but needs 5 to come out to get a run, School Boy Hours who needs 6 to come out to get a run..

I’m hoping that we lose a couple or more during the week as I do like the look of those last three who aren’t guaranteed a run so will re-visit the race at the 48 hour declaration stage.

 

[richard-westwood]

Some horses are being well backed for the national so decided to get out in front of the value train ........of course its the grand national but I've decided to chop the current top 40 using trends I.e 

8-11 y.o 

16 to 56 days 

Place in last 3 runs 

3 plus chase wins 

8 plus chase runs 

Won at 3mile plus 

That left me Approx 14 horses which was much more manageable whoop......passed those 14 into the computer and it threw out 

Cloth cap    9.5  25/1 

Two for gold   9.0   50/1 

Santini    8.8  40/1 

Good boy Bobby   8.7 

Burrows saint     8.5 

Wow ...High rating for that top one but big prices up there .....know what ...gotta be in it to win it ....10pt ew top 3.......shot at retirement ??

[FleetFanatic]

I will update before Saturday. With Chris’s Dream withdrawn, obviously the weights changed slightly again too.

[FleetFanatic]

Post removed due to update lower...

Edited April 7, 2022 by FleetFanatic

[calva decoy]

Bet365 have their usual 50% off offer but some proper tight prices on the 3 I've picked .

ANY SECOND NOW 8/1 ( 6 ) 

ESCARIA TEN 10/1 ( 6 ) 

ENJOY D'ALLEN 10/1 ( 6 ) 

Plus CLOTH CAP 33/1 ( 6 ) around 2 weeks ago .

[FleetFanatic]

12 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Bet365 have their usual 50% off offer but some proper tight prices on the 3 I've picked .

ANY SECOND NOW 8/1 ( 6 ) 

ESCARIA TEN 10/1 ( 6 ) 

ENJOY D'ALLEN 10/1 ( 6 ) 

Plus CLOTH CAP 33/1 ( 6 ) around 2 weeks ago .

Was just about to say the offer has started!

[FleetFanatic]

Updated below...

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by FleetFanatic

[gbettle]

I wonder, what the `industry` sp overround will be this year? 

130%, 140%?

150%+ ?!

[FleetFanatic]

General thoughts - what do people think of Bet365 each-way extra?

I mean, lower odds, but as many as 10 places... general consensus = yes/no?

[FleetFanatic]

And what is the final edit - 3 reserves & rated, we lose Lord du Mesnil from our qualifiers.

[FleetFanatic]

13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry	90
15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE	99
16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies	90
25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson	99
30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill	90
31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon	92
37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE	99
39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle	99

 

To complete my 10, I've gone for 2 in the 80s & taken Mighty Thunder & Schoolboy Hours.

Thanks to half the stakes bck already, that's my quarter of the field the same as every year - get the winner & it;s a profit no matter what. Enough places & it's a profit or small loss on a fun afternoon.

[fd1972uk]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:37 PM, FleetFanatic said:

Was just about to say the offer has started!

Thinking of just using this offer too. Some boosts on some horses too. 

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the National

Not in top 4 of betting, 2 from 242

This leaves 4, SNOW LEOPARDESS, ANY SECOND NOW, MINELLA TIMES and DELTA WORK

Not in top 6 last tome, 0 from 101

This removes MINELLA TIMES

Last ran more than 34 days ago, 2 from 152

This leaves DELTA WORK at 11/1, 6 places 

 

[richard-westwood]

On 4/5/2022 at 4:37 PM, richard-westwood said:

Some horses are being well backed for the national so decided to get out in front of the value train ........of course its the grand national but I've decided to chop the current top 40 using trends I.e 

8-11 y.o 

16 to 56 days 

Place in last 3 runs 

3 plus chase wins 

8 plus chase runs 

Won at 3mile plus 

That left me Approx 14 horses which was much more manageable whoop......passed those 14 into the computer and it threw out 

Cloth cap    9.5  25/1 

Two for gold   9.0   50/1 

Santini    8.8  40/1 

Good boy Bobby   8.7 

Burrows saint     8.5 

Wow ...High rating for that top one but big prices up there .....know what ...gotta be in it to win it ....10pt ew top 3.......shot at retirement ??

Had a good look at final Dec's and happy to just add thec4th and 5th horses goid boy and Burrows 10pt wins both .....so will have the top 5 running for me in 40 horse race ?

[Nigwilliam]

Romain De Senam. 125/1. skybet. 7 places.

I'll chuck 50p Ew at it.

[FleetFanatic]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Had a good look at final Dec's and happy to just add thec4th and 5th horses goid boy and Burrows 10pt wins both .....so will have the top 5 running for me in 40 horse race ?

Only the top 5? No ambition. I'm aiming for the top 10!

Seriously though, best these stats have done is find 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th & 6th in the same National. Not so good last year with just a couple of places mind.

We have 3 the same so I hope it's one of those for us both.  

Edited April 8, 2022 by FleetFanatic

[calva decoy]

The Virtual National finished .

1) SNOW LEOPARDESS 

2) ANY SECOND NOW 

3) DELTA WORKS 

4) MINELLA TIMES 

Normally they get 2/3 correct .