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Grand National 9th April 2022

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
On 4/4/2022 at 4:52 PM, The Brigadier said:

The 2022 Grand National is this Saturday at 5.15 and with the ground currently good to soft with an unsettled forecast it looks likely to be run on slow ground which obviously is what the majority want. Only 40 can run so I’ve only covered the runners down to number 46 as its highly unlikely anything below that number will make the cut. Here’s an early horse by horse analysis with final summary.

 

MINELLA TIMES Was a fairytale winner for Rachael Blackmore when winning this last year off of a stone lower mark when coming into the race in decent form. Shown nothing in two starts this season and has questions to answer now.

DELTA WORK A classy type who’s won five Grade ones in his time. Took to the cross country course well when winning at the Cheltenham Festival from stable companion Tiger Roll. Has never run in a handicap over fences and should stay well. Has to be on the short list.

EASYLAND One of 9 JP McManus owned runners. Was a smart cross country performer for D Cottin when trained in France but since joining Jonjo O’Neill has shown nothing in two hurdles and a chase. Hard to fancy.

ANY SECOND NOW Was going well when badly hampered by a faller at the 12th in this race last year. Recovered to finish third beaten 8 1/4L by Minella Times and could be considered unlucky. 7lb higher now but 7lb better off with the winner. Prepped for this by winning Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February and high on the long short list.

RUN WILD FRED One of 14 runners from the Gordon Elliott stable. Smart sort who has some decent recent form in grade one company. Was runner up in 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham last time. A consistent sort who’s not out of this on his first try at 4m plus.

LOSTINTRANSLATION One of two Colin Tizzard entries. Looked good when winning at Ascot last November on his re-appearance but shown little on last two starts and yet to race behind 3m 2F. Needs to improve.

BRHAMA BULL One of 5 trained by master Irish trainer Willie Mullins. Has some good back form but yet to,prove he’ll stay as far as this. Last seen when a 20/1 shot unseating 12 from home in the Cheltenham Cross Country won by Delta Work.

BATTLEOVERDOYEN Won over three miles in December 2019 but primarily kept to shorter trips since and stamina is a big doubt here.

BURROWS SAINT Ran 4th (beaten 27L) in this race last year and is 1lb lower now. Remote third behind Any Second Now and Escaria Ten in Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse last time which was very disappointing and doesn’t look good enough.

MOUNT IDA Yet to race behind 3m 2F but that was when winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 13 months ago. Kept to shorter trips since and was disappointing in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham on latest run. Stamina to prove.

LONGHOUSE POET Lightly raced (this will be his 14th career run) and won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January, 10lb higher now. Prepped for this with a quiet run in a grade 2 hurdle race at Navan in February.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF Consistent 8 year old trained by Colin Tizzard. Runner up in two big handicap chases following a Charlie Parker Memorial Chase win at Carlisle on his re-appearance. Yet to try beyond 3m 2F but if staying has ew claims.

TWO FOR GOLD Consistent 9 year old who ran a career best last time at Ascot in the Ascot Chase when running the smart Fakir D’oudairies to just under two lengths with some smart types behind. 50/1 today looks a big price on that run but he does have stamina to prove as he’s yet to run beyond three miles and two furlongs.

SANTINI Only beaten a neck in 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup by Al Boum Photo. Now with Polly Gundry and was 8th in this years renewal. Surprisingly has yet to race beyond 3m 2F but shapes like a thorough stayer.

SAMCRO Has become a disappointing horse and is yet another who has stamina to prove. The furthest he’s raced over was last time out at Down Royal when cutting out approaching the last over 3m 2F.

FARCLAS 5th last year beaten 29L and now 6lb higher. Good second in Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan last time out in November and off since. Will no doubt be staying on when others have cried off but unlikely to be good enough.

ESCARIA TEN Lightly raced eight year old who ran one of todays favourites Any Second Now to a nose at Fairyhouse in the Bobbyjo in February over 3m 1F and only a pound worse off here. Was 3rd in 2021 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham so todays trip should be within his compass and has claims for Max McNeill.

GOOD BYE BOBBY Having a good season in handicaps rising 12lb having won twice at Wetherby. Yet to race beyond 3m 1F and doesn’t appeal as an out and out stayer. One of four entries for Messrs Souede and Munir.

LORD DU MESNIL 50/1 when pulled up last year and nothing to suggest since that that won’t be the same scenario this time round.

COKO BEACH One of 9 Gigginstown runners here. 59L behind Any Day Now and Escaria Ten in Bobbyjo Chase last time and impossible to fancy on this year’s efforts.

DE RASHER COUNTER Some smart back form having won the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury from the same handicap mark. Had issues since but showed some promise on re-appearance in Denman Chase at Newbury, his first for 16 months and is a lively outsider if back his best.

CARIBEAN BOY Disappointed last time at Ascot having previously won at Kempton. Has yet to race beyond three miles so there has to be stamina worries. Went off favourite for last season’s Topham Chase and was pulled up.

COURT MAID First run for Henry De Bromhead (previously with Thomas Mullins). Has won over 3m 5F in the past and was 9th (beaten 24L) in last seasons Irish Grand National. Would need a trainer upgrade to have a chance here.

KILDISART Another double green Souede & Munir owned runner. Ran with promise on first run for 462 days when 4th beaten 23L in Greatwood Gold cup at Newbury last month. Yet to race beyond 3m 2F.

DISCORAMA Went off 16/1 when a well beaten 7th last year and back for another crack off of a 1lb lower mark. Only weakened approaching the last but no reason to believe he will run any better this time around.

TOP VILLE BEN Not the force of old. Fell nine from home when 33/1 in Becher Chase last December and has sfound some form since back over hurdles. Big ask here.

ENJOY D’ALLEN Third in last season’s Irish Grand National and finished in same position in Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Prepped for this with a 5th in valuable 3m handicap hurdle in February and interestingly has been sold since to JP McManus. Trip should suit and is an interesting runner.

ANIBALE FLY Another JP runner. Was never going when a 28/1 chance in last years race and shown nothing this season to suggest the result will be any different.

DINGO DOLLAR Runner up in last season’s Scottish National off of the same mark. Stays very well and wouldn’t want the ground to turn too soft. Could outrun his odds as stays so well.

FREEWHEELING DYLAN Won Last season’s Irish Grand National at 150/1 and races off of a 10lb higher mark today. Shown little in cross country handicap chase and handicap hurdle this season and although he’ll stay will be a shock were he to win this.

CLASS CONTI Finished 15th last year when 66/1 and has shown nothing in three runs this season to suggest the result will be any different.

NOBLE YEATS Only his 8th start over fences with the pick of them his runner up to Ahoy Senor in Towton Novices’ Chase in February. Flopped in Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham since. Never raced beyond 3m 1F and has stamina to prove.

MIGHTY THUNDER Winner of last season’s Scottish Grand National off of a 3lb lower mark from Dingo Dollar. Pulled up on last two starts and needs a drying week as best in a sound surface.

CLOTH CAP Went off 11/2 favourite last year when pulling up having made a noise. Had his wind done since but doesn’t look the same horse to be honest. Drying ground would probably suit.

SNOW LEOPARDESS Back from the breeding barns this season to win all three of her starts including over these unique fences when winning the Becher Chase here over 3m 2F and now 7lb higher. Was 4th in 2021 3m 6F NH Chase at Cheltenham so looks like she’ll stay and bids to become the first mare to win the National in many years. A definite player.

AGUSTA GOLD Another Willie Mullins runner. Should stay ok as was runner up on bottomless ground in 3m 4F Punchestown Grand National Trial a couple of years ago. Recent form however leaves her with plenty to find.

PHOENIX WAY Trainer Harry Fry in scintillating form (5 wins from last 9 runners) and only lightly raced with this being his 12th career start. Trying longer trip for first time (yet to race beyond 3m 1F) though did fall heavily last time.

DEISA ABA In decent enough form this season finishing runner up over hurdles as well as two handicap chases. His best runs have all come at Sandown.

BLAKLION Has tackled this event in the past finishing 6th last year, brought down at first in 2018 and was 4th (beaten 8 3/4L) in 2017. Is best on very soft and if it turned into a muddy slog would play into his hands. 13 years old now mind and maybe too old to win.

POKER PARTY Back from 666 day absence and shown nothing in three starts (handicap hurdle, handicap chase and cross country handicap) also has stamina to prove. No chance.

DEATH DUTY Winner of Punchestown Grand National Trial in February. Wasn’t disgraced in Ultima at Cheltenham when 6th. Stamina is his forte and holds each way claims although is reportedly been aimed at Irish National.

DOMANE DE L’ISLE Soundly beaten Eider last time on first attempt at a marathon trip and makes no appeal here.

ECLAIR SURF Stays very well and his two recent handicap efforts have been franked by Gericault Roque in Classic Chase whom he beat 13L and Win My Wings who beat him 1 3/4L in the Eider and has bolted up since in the Scottish National. Big chance if making the final 40.

FORTESCUE Comes here in good form having won at Ascot (4lb higher here). Yet to try marathon trip but shoes as though he’ll stay ok.

COMMODORE Goes well fresh so a 120 day absence since last seen shouldn’t be seen as a negative. Impressive when winning that day at Cheltenham winning by 15L. Has back form with Snow Leopardess that suggests this grey shouldn’t be dismissed if getting a run.

SCHOOL BOY HOURS Well backed when making a bad mistake four from home and pulled up in Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Trainer had previously stated that he though he was a serious National horse. Claims if he makes the final cut.

ROMAIN DE SENAM Pulled up in Midlands National on first run for Pipe having previously been with Dan Skelton. Stamina a major issue.

ROI MAGE Beat Agusta Gold last time and plenty to find on that form

 

Summary:-

Ireland have won 4 of the last 5 renewals and last season had 10 of the first 11 home. Obviously when we get the final declaration on Thursday lunchtime the bookmakers are likely to be pushing out enhanced places and on the day more than likely to push some of the front ones out so I’m not suggesting a bet at this stage. My short list comprises of Any Second Now who was unlucky in last year’s race, Éclair Surf (needs 3 to come out to get a run) who’s form looks solid, Enjoy D’Allen,  Commodore who goes well fresh but needs 5 to come out to get a run, School Boy Hours who needs 6 to come out to get a run..

I’m hoping that we lose a couple or more during the week as I do like the look of those last three who aren’t guaranteed a run so will re-visit the race at the 48 hour declaration stage.

 

My final thoughts are that the most likely winner is Any Second Now who was unlucky last season is 7lb better off with last year's winner Minella Times and comes here in much better form than his rival. Eclair Surf would be number two with his form boosted by Scottish National winner Win My Wings last weekend with stamina very much his forte. It was very interesting that JP McManus pulled a couple out yesterday (with vets certificates obviously!) to allow the Noel Meade trained School Boy Hours to get a run. Meade was on the panel of the excellent Luck On Sunday programme on RacingTV during the Dublin Racing Festival and gave the horse a glowing recommendation as a horse he felt could win a Grand National. Obviously his owner feels so as well and he makes the short list. Honourable mentions as well for Enjoy D'Allen, Commodore (who crept into the race yesterday, although all of Venetia Williams horse have run poorly over the past couple of days) and Death Duty. It's not a race to be honest I've had a great deal of success in over the years (give me a twenty runner handicap hurdle to crack any day!) but its the National so good luck with whatever you're backing and lets hope all horses and jockeys come home safely.

1. Any Second Now

2. Eclair Surf

3. School Boy Hours

4. Enjoy D'Allen

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Nigwilliam

Nigwilliam

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Romain De Senam. 125/1. skybet. 7 places.

I'll chuck 50p Ew at it.

As this will probably be my only bet on UK racing today, I'm also putting £1 ewx @ 66/1  10 places bet365.                                                                 Horse only ran in Midlands National in order to qualify for this race so fingers crossed it will end the day unharmed and better still, placed. 

 

 

        

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
On 4/5/2022 at 4:37 PM, richard-westwood said:

Some horses are being well backed for the national so decided to get out in front of the value train ........of course its the grand national but I've decided to chop the current top 40 using trends I.e 

8-11 y.o 

16 to 56 days 

Place in last 3 runs 

3 plus chase wins 

8 plus chase runs 

Won at 3mile plus 

That left me Approx 14 horses which was much more manageable whoop......passed those 14 into the computer and it threw out 

Cloth cap    9.5  25/1 

Two for gold   9.0   50/1 

Santini    8.8  40/1 

Good boy Bobby   8.7 

Burrows saint     8.5 

Wow ...High rating for that top one but big prices up there .....know what ...gotta be in it to win it ....10pt ew top 3.......shot at retirement ??

Santini ew ....30pts profit overall I'll take that 

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I have placed my £250 BET365 bet onDelta Works.

I have layed it off on Betfair even though the spread is very large (11/1 on Bet365 and 16/1 on Betfair).

However the net impact is that I'll make a profit of £391 if it wins, £151 if it's placed in the first 6 and breakeven if it loses.

That was a nice way to make a risk free £151 profit.

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Nigwilliam

Nigwilliam

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

As this will probably be my only bet on UK racing today, I'm also putting £1 ewx @ 66/1  10 places bet365.                                                                 Horse only ran in Midlands National in order to qualify for this race so fingers crossed it will end the day unharmed and better still, placed. 

 

 

        

10th.         Placed ewx.             Well done Philip Armson on his first National ride.

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, FleetFanatic said:

If you used bet365 would that not be 40pts profit?

5 x 10 ew = 100

minus 50 refund leaves 50

1/5 odds = 8/1 * 10 plus the place stake = 90

 

Offer wasnt on when placed bet Tues....so 80 out 110 returned .....I'm happy with any profit ...it was a tough race ....disappointing in cloth cap ...was expecting a good run and then drifted to 80/1 2 hours before the off so seems they knew he wasn't gonna run well ....stinks a bit but thats racing 

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