Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th March (Cheltenham Day 2)

[Villa Chris]

Bravesmanagame and fury road non runners in the next . I’d say Bravemansgame is down to the going .

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Coral Cup (2.50)

Not in the top 8 in the weights, 3 from 142.

Age 5 or 6, 2 from 91. This reduces the field to 6, THE BOSSES OSCAR, ASHDALE BOB, COMMANDER OF FLEET, MCFABULOUS, HANG IN THERE and THE SHUNTER.

Nothing else stands out as a trend so probably worth having an each way punt with BET365 offering 7 places.

 

[fd1972uk]

Replaced capdanno for pulled fav for my free bet

[fd1972uk]

Trying felecien in next race gives a free £10 bet (sky) so give it a go. Got a couple of small free bets on next race so heres hoping. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by fd1972uk

[Zilzalian]

51 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Agree with this 

Few points about this watering business bear in mind it was good good to soft yesterday

1 It is unfair on the good/firm or  good ground horses.

2 good ground disadvantages no one

3 it (watering) is more to do with appeasing the anti racing lobbyists which you can never satisfy anyway.

4 it is grossly unfair for all the punters and without punters racing would die.

5 the default should be if in doubt to leave well alone.

6 If your horse is a soft ground horse suck it up instead of moaning, some trainers want different ground to suit different horses in other words cake and eat it so will moan when soft then moan when firm blah blah.

 

[Zilzalian]

16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

A peep across the channel at 2:18 while all this cheltenham nonsense is going on josejosephine is a tasty price at 16/1, The fav and second fav very close on the figures and probably deserve to be close but no value.

Well 3 legs fell off that gg, out to 40/1 so that was never fit enough or ready to race was it?

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Coral Cup (2.50)

Not in the top 8 in the weights, 3 from 142.

Age 5 or 6, 2 from 91. This reduces the field to 6, THE BOSSES OSCAR, ASHDALE BOB, COMMANDER OF FLEET, MCFABULOUS, HANG IN THERE and THE SHUNTER.

Nothing else stands out as a trend so probably worth having an each way punt with BET365 offering 7 places.

 

2 non runners reduced to 4,

50/1 winner !!! and 14/1 3rd ... Looked too competitive for a bet, but well done @MCLARKE

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Champion Chase.

Bred in France, 3 from 32, AE 0.56. This reduces the field to 2, SHISHKIN and PUT THE KETTLE ON.

Not a race for odds on favourites, only 1 from 5 has won. This leaves PUT THE KETTLE ON, available at 25/1.

It's a pity that there are now only 7 runners so only 2 places available.

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Cross Country Chase. I'm not a fan of this but I'll give it a go.

Favourite, 1 from 8, AE 0.40.

1st last time, 3 from 16, AE 1.86. This leaves 2, DIESEL D'ALLIER and MIDNIGHT MAESTRO.

Last ran more than 79 days ago, 4 from34. This leaves DIESEL D'ALLIER at 12/1.

 

[azzybear]

prengarde 4.10 ew

[fd1972uk]

Anti-climax that, thankfully never done any extra specials on shiskin. 

Not too confident of tiger roll in this weather too, so could be a other double kaiboshed. 

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Grand Annual Chase (4.50)

Last ran less than 50 days ago, 1 from 95. This reduces the field to 4, ANDY DUFRESNE, EDITEUR DU GITE, GUMBALL and IL RIDOTO.

Not in the top 12 in the betting, 4 from 55, AE 3.79. This leaves GUMBALL at 12/1, 5 places.

[Villa Chris]

@Tedthewolfnice one mate . Did you take the 50s 

[Tedthewolf]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

@Tedthewolfnice one mate . Did you take the 50s 

Get it? 

 No 40's &  then 33's  just before the  off looked way to big a price in my eyes.

[cannotbebeat]

5.45 Pallas Dancer 11/8

6.45 Saorla 7/4

Good luck all CNBB.

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Coral Cup (2.50)

Not in the top 8 in the weights, 3 from 142.

Age 5 or 6, 2 from 91. This reduces the field to 6, THE BOSSES OSCAR, ASHDALE BOB, COMMANDER OF FLEET, MCFABULOUS, HANG IN THERE and THE SHUNTER.

Nothing else stands out as a trend so probably worth having an each way punt with BET365 offering 7 places.

 

missed this in work gutted woulda done cover.

[The Brigadier]

On 3/15/2022 at 9:18 AM, The Brigadier said:

Day 2 and the ground is still riding on the soft side with the potential of some rain moving through during the morning and day. Here’s my thoughts for the day -

 

Cheltenham 1.30

Nine go to post for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m 5F with a warm favourite here in Sir Gerhard. He’s been re-routed here to avoid clashing with his stablemate Dysart Dynamo in the Supreme. A quality hurdler trained by Willie Mullins who was well ridden by Rachael Blackmore to win last season’s Champion Bumper here. He’s yet to race beyond 2 miles under rules (although he has won a three mile Irish point to point) but I don’t think that they trip will get him beat here. There’s plenty to like with the exception of the price at around 4/6 and I’ll look elsewhere for some each way value. Paul Nicholl’s Stage Star was last seen winning Newbury’s Challow Hurdle with no previous winner of that contest coming on to take this. The record is actually 0 from 18!

Henry De Bromhead’s representative is the exciting Robcour owned Journey With Me and he’s the one I want to be with. He’s unbeaten in a bumper and a couple of novice hurdles on soft ground so any rain would very much be in his favour. He didn’t impress everyone last time but there was no pace then and he’s better than that. The only real negative is the form of De Bromhead’s stable who have now gone 17 runs and 15 days since his last winner (upto the end of racing Monday).

 

JOURNEY WITH ME 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Cheltenham 2.10

The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is run over 3m 1/2F of the old course and has attracted eleven runners. Bravemansgame is a horse that I like a lot as his jumping is so fluent and and he’s the one they all have to beat. He’s been impressive in winning all four of his chases and although he flopped over hurdles last year at the Festival in the Ballymore he looks more of the finished article now over fences. He holds Scottish challenger Ahoy Senor on Kauto Star Novice Chase form at Kempton over Christmas although this track should suit that one better and he may get closer today. The biggest danger to the selection may well be Venetia William’s L’Homme Presse who is also nursing an unbeaten fencing record of four from four. He’s stepping up in trip today and though he should stay I’ll rather be with the one that we know stays well especially if the rain arrives. The best outsider maybe Nicky Henderson’s Dusart who will appreciate jumping this way round and is probably better than his two chase wins.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME 2 points win @ 5/2 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 2.50

A maximum field of 24 go to post for the 2m 5F Coral Handicap Hurdle which as always is ultra tricky. Saint Felivien is a very interesting runner of Gordon Elliott’s (who saddles just the seven in total) and makes his handicap debut here after just three hurdling runs. The Shunter represents JP McManus and Emmet Mullins and landed a gamble last year at this meeting to win the the Plate over fences. Back over hurdles today he must be given the utmost respect. Gowel Road has a big chance on the book having won here back in November over course and distance and is weighted to confirm the form with Unexpected Party who is surprisingly shorter in the betting today. Not disgraced since over two miles, the step back in trip looks ideal and he would be the main selection. Philip Hobbs runs Camprond who we haven’t seen since the Greatwood Hurdle in November here when fourth and that form has worked out very well with plenty of winners coming out of that race since. He wouldn’t want the ground too deteriorate mind as he bounces off of good ground. The first reserve Good Risk At All would be a major player if getting into the contest having bolted up at Ascot last time for Sam Thomas. A rise of 10lb may not stop him if he’s lucky enough to get a run and is including in the staking plan.

 

GOWEL ROAD 1 point each way @ 14/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456

GOOD RISK AT ALL 1 point each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234567

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is next with eight going to post for this two mile championship contest. The last two winners Politologue and Put The Kettle On are back and both are big prices which just shows how deep a race it is this year round. It should really revolve around the front three in the betting and Shishkin is the most likely winner. Unbeaten in seven starts over fences Nicky Henderson’s eight year old got up late to eat his main rival today Energumene at Ascot in January and although he can confirm the form shouldn’t be as far apart in the betting as they currently are. Willie Mullins not only saddles Energumene but Chacun Pour Soi as well. A disappointing third when favourite last year he’s yet to translate his excellent Irish form to over here in two attempts but is a top class chaser who should run well. Last years winner Put The Kettle On is four from five at the track and is the best outsider at around 25/1 (especially if all 8 run).

 

SHISHKIN 3 points win @ 4/5 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.10

Sixteen go to post for the Glenfarclas Chase, a cross country race run over 3m 6F. This isn’t really a race that appeals too much to me and although he’s now twelve years old the favourite Tiger Roll will be hard to beat if anywhere near the form he was in last year when bolting up in this race by 18L. He’s won at the Festival now five times, a Triumph Hurdle, NH Chase and three Cross Country Chases and is likely to be very popular in the market. It would be no shock were he to go off around the even money mark. The opposition today is not that strong with the second favourite also trained by Tiger Roll’s trainer Gordon Elliott in Delta Work who has yet to race beyond three miles and may not be the horse he once threatened to be. Easyland has good track form but has gown nothing in two starts for his new handler Jonjo O’Neill and is best watched.

 

TIGER ROLL 1 point win @ 7/4 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 4.50

A maximum field of 20 assemble for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Handicap Chase. This year’s renewal has a wide open look about it. Gordon Elliott saddles two runners the most interesting of which is Andy Dufresne, one of two JP McManus owned runners in the field. Despite near top weight I expect him to run well along with last year’s winner Sky Pirate although he is now 4lb higher than he was in 2021. Gary Moore is in flying form and his Editeur Du Gite is two from two at the track and yet another one with claims. An interesting outsider is the Alex Hales trained For Pleasure who’s crept in off a nice weight on his handicap bow here. A natural front runner he’ll be at the head of affairs and will give us a decent run for our money although the stable form of Hales is quite concerning with 25 days and 17 runners since his last winner and included amongst the losers are three short priced favourites. Thyme White won well last time out and has been put up 8lb but is not out of this along with several others but it’s Andy Dufresne for me with a small saver on For Pleasure.

 

ANDY DUFRESNE 2 points each way @ 9/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

FOR PLEASURE 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 1/5th 123456

 

Cheltenham 5.20

22 go to post for the concluding race of day 2, the Weatherbys Champion Bumper run over two miles. Willie Mullins has an excellent record in this race and saddles seven runners today. It’s not always his first string that’s struck in the past so we shouldn’t be quick to dismiss his longer priced runners. Short priced favourite is Quevega’s first offspring Facile Vega who’s unbeaten in two starts and was especially impressive when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February. He looks sure to run well along with fellow market leader American Mike, on of two Gordon Elliott runners here. He too is unbeaten in two bumpers and has been talked up by todays jockey Jamie Codd in many Festival previews. I’ll take him to take this with Mullin’s Redemption Day also worth a mention as he looked smart when winning on his debut over Christmas and this race has been won ten times by horses that have only run the the once. At much bigger prices it’s worth mentioning the two four year old fillies who are receiving both age and sex allowances. Fergal O’Brien trains Poetic Music who’s a ready winner here in listed company on New Year’s Day and isn’t out of it nor Milton Harris’s Rosy Redrum who was badly ridden last time although both will do well to mark the final six against some exciting Irish runners.

 

AMERICAN MIKE 2 POINTS WIN @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Poor day ! Not helped by the ground tuning so soft. A loss of just over 12 points. At least we all know now what the ground will be tomorrow !

 

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, The Brigadier said:

Poor day ! Not helped by the ground tuning so soft. A loss of just over 12 points. At least we all know now what the ground will be tomorrow !

 

They will probably get the heaters on it through the night ?

[fd1972uk]

Awful day, thankfully mostly free bets but still loses. 

Stupidly done indigo breeze instead of campronde which would have resulted in a coral series win, meh. 

Bit fearful for tomorrows betting with the going, granted unless theres any moneyback or really special offers itll be free bets on every race (probably Friday too). 

Edited March 16, 2022 by fd1972uk

[kroni]

54 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Poor day ! Not helped by the ground tuning so soft. A loss of just over 12 points. At least we all know now what the ground will be tomorrow !

 

Can you believe they even watered the track yesterday... on the new course tomorrow so atleast it's fresh ground, I don't think they watered it

[Budgie 65]

I think 210 first Street and 530 minds made up look good can u have a look lads 

Bob olling er at ,9/10 boring

£5 wins and 5 dblground reasons

Edited March 16, 2022 by Budgie 65

[Villa Chris]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Few points about this watering business bear in mind it was good good to soft yesterday

1 It is unfair on the good/firm or  good ground horses.

2 good ground disadvantages no one

3 it (watering) is more to do with appeasing the anti racing lobbyists which you can never satisfy anyway.

4 it is grossly unfair for all the punters and without punters racing would die.

5 the default should be if in doubt to leave well alone.

6 If your horse is a soft ground horse suck it up instead of moaning, some trainers want different ground to suit different horses in other words cake and eat it so will moan when soft then moan when firm blah blah.

 

It definitely backfired on them today . Should have been left alone, especially with forecast rain . I knew last week that it was going to rain today and quite a bit of it.