Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th March (Cheltenham Day 2)

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 and the ground is still riding on the soft side with the potential of some rain moving through during the morning and day. Here’s my thoughts for the day -

 

Cheltenham 1.30

Nine go to post for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m 5F with a warm favourite here in Sir Gerhard. He’s been re-routed here to avoid clashing with his stablemate Dysart Dynamo in the Supreme. A quality hurdler trained by Willie Mullins who was well ridden by Rachael Blackmore to win last season’s Champion Bumper here. He’s yet to race beyond 2 miles under rules (although he has won a three mile Irish point to point) but I don’t think that they trip will get him beat here. There’s plenty to like with the exception of the price at around 4/6 and I’ll look elsewhere for some each way value. Paul Nicholl’s Stage Star was last seen winning Newbury’s Challow Hurdle with no previous winner of that contest coming on to take this. The record is actually 0 from 18!

Henry De Bromhead’s representative is the exciting Robcour owned Journey With Me and he’s the one I want to be with. He’s unbeaten in a bumper and a couple of novice hurdles on soft ground so any rain would very much be in his favour. He didn’t impress everyone last time but there was no pace then and he’s better than that. The only real negative is the form of De Bromhead’s stable who have now gone 17 runs and 15 days since his last winner (upto the end of racing Monday).

 

JOURNEY WITH ME 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Cheltenham 2.10

The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is run over 3m 1/2F of the old course and has attracted eleven runners. Bravemansgame is a horse that I like a lot as his jumping is so fluent and and he’s the one they all have to beat. He’s been impressive in winning all four of his chases and although he flopped over hurdles last year at the Festival in the Ballymore he looks more of the finished article now over fences. He holds Scottish challenger Ahoy Senor on Kauto Star Novice Chase form at Kempton over Christmas although this track should suit that one better and he may get closer today. The biggest danger to the selection may well be Venetia William’s L’Homme Presse who is also nursing an unbeaten fencing record of four from four. He’s stepping up in trip today and though he should stay I’ll rather be with the one that we know stays well especially if the rain arrives. The best outsider maybe Nicky Henderson’s Dusart who will appreciate jumping this way round and is probably better than his two chase wins.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME 2 points win @ 5/2 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 2.50

A maximum field of 24 go to post for the 2m 5F Coral Handicap Hurdle which as always is ultra tricky. Saint Felivien is a very interesting runner of Gordon Elliott’s (who saddles just the seven in total) and makes his handicap debut here after just three hurdling runs. The Shunter represents JP McManus and Emmet Mullins and landed a gamble last year at this meeting to win the the Plate over fences. Back over hurdles today he must be given the utmost respect. Gowel Road has a big chance on the book having won here back in November over course and distance and is weighted to confirm the form with Unexpected Party who is surprisingly shorter in the betting today. Not disgraced since over two miles, the step back in trip looks ideal and he would be the main selection. Philip Hobbs runs Camprond who we haven’t seen since the Greatwood Hurdle in November here when fourth and that form has worked out very well with plenty of winners coming out of that race since. He wouldn’t want the ground too deteriorate mind as he bounces off of good ground. The first reserve Good Risk At All would be a major player if getting into the contest having bolted up at Ascot last time for Sam Thomas. A rise of 10lb may not stop him if he’s lucky enough to get a run and is including in the staking plan.

 

GOWEL ROAD 1 point each way @ 14/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456

GOOD RISK AT ALL 1 point each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234567

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is next with eight going to post for this two mile championship contest. The last two winners Politologue and Put The Kettle On are back and both are big prices which just shows how deep a race it is this year round. It should really revolve around the front three in the betting and Shishkin is the most likely winner. Unbeaten in seven starts over fences Nicky Henderson’s eight year old got up late to eat his main rival today Energumene at Ascot in January and although he can confirm the form shouldn’t be as far apart in the betting as they currently are. Willie Mullins not only saddles Energumene but Chacun Pour Soi as well. A disappointing third when favourite last year he’s yet to translate his excellent Irish form to over here in two attempts but is a top class chaser who should run well. Last years winner Put The Kettle On is four from five at the track and is the best outsider at around 25/1 (especially if all 8 run).

 

SHISHKIN 3 points win @ 4/5 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.10

Sixteen go to post for the Glenfarclas Chase, a cross country race run over 3m 6F. This isn’t really a race that appeals too much to me and although he’s now twelve years old the favourite Tiger Roll will be hard to beat if anywhere near the form he was in last year when bolting up in this race by 18L. He’s won at the Festival now five times, a Triumph Hurdle, NH Chase and three Cross Country Chases and is likely to be very popular in the market. It would be no shock were he to go off around the even money mark. The opposition today is not that strong with the second favourite also trained by Tiger Roll’s trainer Gordon Elliott in Delta Work who has yet to race beyond three miles and may not be the horse he once threatened to be. Easyland has good track form but has gown nothing in two starts for his new handler Jonjo O’Neill and is best watched.

 

TIGER ROLL 1 point win @ 7/4 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 4.50

A maximum field of 20 assemble for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Handicap Chase. This year’s renewal has a wide open look about it. Gordon Elliott saddles two runners the most interesting of which is Andy Dufresne, one of two JP McManus owned runners in the field. Despite near top weight I expect him to run well along with last year’s winner Sky Pirate although he is now 4lb higher than he was in 2021. Gary Moore is in flying form and his Editeur Du Gite is two from two at the track and yet another one with claims. An interesting outsider is the Alex Hales trained For Pleasure who’s crept in off a nice weight on his handicap bow here. A natural front runner he’ll be at the head of affairs and will give us a decent run for our money although the stable form of Hales is quite concerning with 25 days and 17 runners since his last winner and included amongst the losers are three short priced favourites. Thyme White won well last time out and has been put up 8lb but is not out of this along with several others but it’s Andy Dufresne for me with a small saver on For Pleasure.

 

ANDY DUFRESNE 2 points each way @ 9/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

FOR PLEASURE 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 1/5th 123456

 

Cheltenham 5.20

22 go to post for the concluding race of day 2, the Weatherbys Champion Bumper run over two miles. Willie Mullins has an excellent record in this race and saddles seven runners today. It’s not always his first string that’s struck in the past so we shouldn’t be quick to dismiss his longer priced runners. Short priced favourite is Quevega’s first offspring Facile Vega who’s unbeaten in two starts and was especially impressive when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February. He looks sure to run well along with fellow market leader American Mike, on of two Gordon Elliott runners here. He too is unbeaten in two bumpers and has been talked up by todays jockey Jamie Codd in many Festival previews. I’ll take him to take this with Mullin’s Redemption Day also worth a mention as he looked smart when winning on his debut over Christmas and this race has been won ten times by horses that have only run the the once. At much bigger prices it’s worth mentioning the two four year old fillies who are receiving both age and sex allowances. Fergal O’Brien trains Poetic Music who’s a ready winner here in listed company on New Year’s Day and isn’t out of it nor Milton Harris’s Rosy Redrum who was badly ridden last time although both will do well to mark the final six against some exciting Irish runners.

 

AMERICAN MIKE 2 POINTS WIN @ 5/2 William Hill

 

[richard-westwood]

250 chelt 

Camprond   8.9 

Unexpected party  8.5 

Mcfabulous    8.0 

This race has suddenly become much more exciting ....had 4pt doubles on top 2 today in big hcap with top 2 here so there's a rollover of 50pts going onto both now ....Will be a decent payout if either wins ....excitement factor just ramped up ????

[richard-westwood]

210 chelt 

Bravemansgame  9.2 3.65 

Ahoy senor    8.9 13/2 

Lhomme press   8.3 

Can squeeze a bit of profit out backing top 2 so I'll go 10pt both 

[richard-westwood]

450 chelt 

Sky pirate   8.1   12/1 

Frero banbou  7.8  14/1 

Gumball  7.6   33/1 

Wide open pinsticker so I'll try 5pt ew all 3 6 places 

Edited March 15, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Budgie 65]

210che bravemansgame 3/1

[black rabbit]

a wave of the sea    4 50 ch    1/4 pt win     36/1  

daly tiger    2 50 ch  1/6 pt ew  100/1 

 

 

P/L    + 122.5 pt 

Edited March 16, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections

[Budgie 65]

Just had a look at the form it won easily last time 20 odd runners I think I'll have a saver I like sky pirate 4th in a gr 2 last time in a good time but u got me trawling through the form just so many runners

Mr Westwood has sky pirate so I'm staying with bravemans game

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Budgie 65
Just seen westys sky pirate

[Tedthewolf]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

450 chelt 

Sky pirate   8.1   12/1 

Frero banbou  7.8  14/1 

Gumball  7.6   33/1 

Wide open pinsticker so I'll try 5pt ew all 3 6 places 

Hi Rich i like Gumball and have had a few quid e/w  but also going to throw a few quid at Global Citizen i think 50/1 is one hell of a price if i may ask please, was it in the top half dozen or so in your rating or was it well down?

Cheers Ted

 

 

 

 

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

4.50.Editeur.Du Gite.        10/1.... unpl 

5.30.Poetic Music.           40/1... 6th 

singles & double ew 

Good luck all. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

A peep across the channel at 2:18 while all this cheltenham nonsense is going on josejosephine is a tasty price at 16/1, The fav and second fav very close on the figures and probably deserve to be close but no value.

[fd1972uk]

2nd day, nearly all free bets used, only 4 actual cash bets (1 qualifying bet that releases free bets too, 1 moneyback). 

1330 journey with me  mb (5)

1410 bravemansgame

Ahoy senor

1450 camprond

Unexpected party

1610 prengarde

1650 before midnight

Sky pirate

Amarillo sky

Il ridoto

Two doubles 

Sir gerhard (1330) & Shiskin (1530)

Tiger Roll (1610) & American Mike (1730)

 

Any specials that crop up may look at. 

 

Good luck all. 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Newcastle 6.45

SAORLA 7/4

[Villa Chris]

2.50 Coral Cup Cheltenham 

Ashdale Bob 9.48 (20/1)

Call Me Lord 9.36 (33/1)

Mcfabulous 9.28 (16/1)

I’ll play top 3 ew 

Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race and has one runner  Call Me Lord . 

 

[Villa Chris]

4.50 Grand Annual Cheltenham 

Sky Pirate 9.16 (12/1)

Embittered 9.12 (10/1)

Gumball 9.12(25/1)

@Tedthewolf i have Global Citizen 4th in ratings on 8.82

 

[richard-westwood]

7 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Hi Rich i like Gumball and have had a few quid e/w  but also going to throw a few quid at Global Citizen i think 50/1 is one hell of a price if i may ask please, was it in the top half dozen or so in your rating or was it well down?

Cheers Ted

 

 

 

 

Hard to rate global ....his form seems to dip in hcaps so I've had to take an average of his hcap form which puts him low down but if he could run to graded form he'd be around 7th but in the past he's seemed to struggle in hcaps but he has got bottom weight so that's positive 

I really like gumball ....I think he's been overlooked so I'll be over the moon even if he places tbh ....its a hard race 

[Villa Chris]

2.10 Cheltenham 

For some reason I’m not that keen on the first 3 in the betting . Bravesmansgame looks excellent but struggled to get up the hill last year . L’Homme Presse I prefer out the 3 but has never gone the distance and that’s a big trend against him. Ahoy Senor was well beaten by Bravemansgame . At the prices I’ve gone for Fury Road . 1/1 at the distance beating good horses and ran very well in the Albert Bartlett two years ago . 16/1 ew I’ll take . 

[richard-westwood]

12 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

2.10 Cheltenham 

For some reason I’m not that keen on the first 3 in the betting . Bravesmansgame looks excellent but struggled to get up the hill last year . L’Homme Presse I prefer out the 3 but has never gone the distance and that’s a big trend against him. Ahoy Senor was well beaten by Bravemansgame . At the prices I’ve gone for Fury Road . 1/1 at the distance beating good horses and ran very well in the Albert Bartlett two years ago . 16/1 ew I’ll take . 

I'm hoping ahoy senor will come good today ....he jumped left last time so chelteham should suit and he looks like he needs a stiffer test.....so I'm keeping my fingers crossed conditions have fallen  just right now for him ... ??

[Tedthewolf]

Cheers Guys ?

Good to see you rate both GC & Gumbal highly Chris

Yeah  rich i also think  Gumbal will run a big race  there has been a few quid for hin into 25's and lower now.

[LEE-GRAYS]

4.20 chantilly criollo 12/1 e/w 

fallon/haggis 

[calva decoy]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

A peep across the channel at 2:18 while all this cheltenham nonsense is going on josejosephine is a tasty price at 16/1, The fav and second fav very close on the figures and probably deserve to be close but no value.

A few UK & Irish raiders in the two Listed events 

218 ( 5.5f )- FEARLESS ANGEL (91) D.Loughnane 

FAVOURITE CHILD (95) K.Burke 

ELLIPTIC (95) D.O'Brien 

420 ( 6.5f )- SCOTS GRACE ( 94 ) H.Palmer 

CRIOLLO ( 82 ) W.Haggas 

Ratings in brackets .

 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, calva decoy said:

A few UK & Irish raiders in the two Listed events 

218 ( 5.5f )- FEARLESS ANGEL (91) D.Loughnane 

FAVOURITE CHILD (95) K.Burke 

ELLIPTIC (95) D.O'Brien 

420 ( 6.5f )- SCOTS GRACE ( 94 ) H.Palmer 

CRIOLLO ( 82 ) W.Haggas 

Ratings in brackets .

 

I had the f/c the last time dizzy bizu and fav child ran in france and they are quite solid but the first 2 runs of josejosephine make her price (16/1) a silly one and if fit can beat the others. In the 420 i do like criollo and its price.

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

4.20 chantilly criollo 12/1 e/w 

fallon/haggis 

Just noted 

2.18 chantilly elliptic 10/3

ryan/d O’Brien 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

1.30 Cheltenham - Whatdoeawant @ 20/1

Would rather look for some each-way value here and I think there's still plenty more to come from this one - still lightly raced and has shaped with inexperience throughout his career to date. Looks the type that will relish a decent gallop around Cheltenham, will stay no problem and both wins have come when fresh, so the 2-month absence is of no concern. Hopefully can make the first three at least.

2.10 Cheltenham - Beacon Edge @ 12/1

There are a lot of exuberant types in this race and I think they're going to go off hard here, which could set it up nicely for something to bide their time and swoop late. I really like Beacon Edge to go well here - 4th in the stayers' hurdle last year and hasn't done too much wrong since the switch to fences. Only just denied by Farouk D'alene last time out but gets a 7lb swing with that rival today and this one's form ties in with Gabynako, who franked the form yesterday, so 12/1 looks a big price with this likely to be run to suit.

2.50 Cheltenham - Indigo Breeze @ 16/1

Inexperience would be the worry for this one but I think he's well handicapped, especially going up in trip today. Won going away from a horse now rated 136 in November and then backed it up with a solid 2nd to a 140-rated horse last time when losing his position in a small field before rallying. Gets in off 134 today and surely will relish the extra yardage here. Had one previous go at 2m4f but something was clearly amiss that day so will forgive him that, and he's a half brother to Brindisi Breeze so you'd like to think he'll stay no problem. If he holds his position and jumps okay, I think he's got a huge chance.

3.30 Cheltenham - Nube Negra @ 18/1

Seems a bit of a bonkers price to me, for all Shishkin sets a high standard. Brings experience over fences to the race and really ought to have won it last year. This year's renewal perhaps is stronger but finished ahead of Chacun Pour Soi who is a much shorter price today and Nube Negra needs to be fresh to perform at his best. Was impressive earlier this season when returning from a break and just seems sure to run his race and to me, at the price, he's the bet of the race each-way.

4.10 Cheltenham - Brahma Bull @ 20/1

Not a race to get too invested in but worth chancing Brahma Bull at a big price I think - one of the classier runners in the field and you can draw a line through its run last time when bursting a blood vessel and never jumping. Much of his best form has come on good ground, stays well and if taking to these obstacles he could make this price look a bit silly.

4.50 Cheltenham - Embittered @ 12/1

Was going well when favourite for the race last year off a higher mark and I think could be primed to strike now. Ran some solid races in the spring and although less promising this season, never had a chance last time out in a Grade 1 and his mark has been protected for this race as a result. Weighted to go very well, has decent ground which appears to suit and I think we could see a different horse today.

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

2.50. Camprond        8/1 win    /  Gowel Road.        9/1    ew..... 4th & unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

CHEL	1.30	Journey With Me	5.00
CHEL	2.10	Ahoy Senor	8.00
CHEL	3.30	Chacun Pour Soi	7.00
CHEL	4.10	Delta Work	5.00

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle (1.30)

Bred in Ireland, 7 from 61, other 1 from 39. 

Age, all the winners have been aged 6.

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 0 from 68. This leaves 3, JOURNEY WITH ME, STAGE STAR and THREE STRIPE LIFE.

Ran less than 60 days ago, 3 from 67. This leaves STAGE STAR, available at 17/2 BOG, 3 places.

 

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase (2.10)

Nice and simple, favourite 5 from 8, AE 1.93.

This is BRAVEMANSGAME, available at 3/1, 4 places.

[yossa6133]

Why on Earth would they water when the ground was good, good to soft? Especially when rain was forecast, someone needs sacking!

[fd1972uk]

Double still on, glad Journey with Me is OK but obviously lose my moneyback, but thats not important. 

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Why on Earth would they water when the ground was good, good to soft? Especially when rain was forecast, someone needs sacking!

Agree with this