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Tennis Tips - March 28 - April 3


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  • 1 month later...

yes let's go..Busta took a set, ruud won and I have hurkacz left to beat karatsev. Sinner busta was close just as I thought and from what I ve seen a massive choke from the spaniard. In my opinion I think hurkacz is a huge favorite against karatsev and 1,44 is prety juicy for him to win, should I cash out , should I let it play ?

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Jesus what happened to Monfils? That was last match I was waiting for big cash and I see he lost big time.

 

Today I like: Brooksby, Harris, Alcaraz and as a second option Paul and Korda

What do you think?

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1 hour ago, carina007 said:

Jesus what happened to Monfils? That was last match I was waiting for big cash and I see he lost big time.

 

Today I like: Brooksby, Harris, Alcaraz and as a second option Paul and Korda

What do you think?

hurkacz to beat karatsev ?  also monfils is a clown, you shouldn t expect consistency from him.

Edited by raduvlad1995
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The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;

Brooksby v Bautista Agut.   

If I look at this match you know what Bautista AGut can bring. Brooksby is still a work in progress. If he puts it together, he's a very difficult customer. I think this is relatively close but Brooksby just comes through. Spanish players are physically tough, having developed their skills on clay, so Bautista Agut will be no pushover.

Karatsev v Hurkacz. 

Only one winner here and it's Hurkacz. I think he has more than enough game to cover the -3.5 game handicap (odds of even money on bet365). The other bet that interests me is Hurkacz t win 2-0 in sets which is just over even money. Will go with that (1.18 on bet365).

Harris v Nishioka

Harris as a favorite, just scares me. Even though he had a very good win last match, he is just too inconsistent at the moment. The problem for a big server, is that you don't develop a really solid ground game. You don't need to, because most of the time the return of serve doesn't come back, or it's a semi-dolly that you can finish. So when the serve comes back reasonably well, your game/fitness has not suitably developed (very much like Rybakina). This is probably backed up by the points won on 2nd serve percentage. No bet for me.

Korda v Kecmanovic

I think Korda is really gonna struggle here. He is facing a big, tall young guy with a canon for a serve. His win over Sock is impressive (American at home), and he took care of Felix easily. Kecmanovic is also coached by David Nalbandian, who was a very tough competitor. I would be going for the Serb here.

Fritz v Paul

Was very impressed with Fritz when he played Kukushkin. Kukushkin played really well. 3rd set at 3-3 he had made just 1 unforced error. 6 games x 6 points = 36 x 6 shots ... so that's 1 unforced error in 100 ball strikes. But Fritz matched him. Fritz also showed a side of his game I had not seen before, hitting the ball very hard, and changing pace really well. Combined with a great serve. Only one winner here and it's Fritz.

Tsitsipas v De Minaur

I'm not impressed with Tsitsipas. I don't like the coaching, and it's crazy that a player should be so dependent on info/encouragement  from his box, at this stage. Tennis is an individual sport, and at some point you have to figure things out yourself. I don't think Tsitsipas dos this well.

De Minaur is actually knocking on the 'next level' door. He's so close, and just needs to add a tiny bit more to his game to get there. Maybe a little confidence, or a slight change in tactics. I think he matches up very well with Tsitsipas, and probably wins here. I think the over 21.5 games is a decent bet, for me better than the De Minaur +3.5 game handicap. I'll go De Minaur outright win here.

 

Finding the tennis quite difficult to watch. Most of the time the view is from a camera that must be 16 rows up and back from the courts. Makes a hideous picture. Court not framed well, and you don't see the flight/height of the ball. Then add in some motor mouth, gibberish commentator that just talks ?, and  its seriously annoying. 

Edited by neilovan
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10 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Mats Rosenkrantz is playing in St. Brieuc and I'm trying to figure out how he's gonna get over the line when he's not having his best serve day. Too many second serves. 

I find this level of tennis very unpredictable. The shorter the event, the more unpredictable. The lower the quality of the contestants, the more unpredictable. Just a no-go zone for me.

Edited by neilovan
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In the woman's WTA in Miami , I think Collins will get the better of Jabeur. Collins looks fit and focused, and I am not sure that Jabeur is fully back from her injury. Again, crowd support will not hurt the American.

Quite happy to take a small double on Bronzetti to beat Saville (Gavrilova) and Osaka to lose to Riske. Riske has a decent chance, because Osaka is just so brittle, and hearing an American crowd, supporting an American will probably upset her. Riske just gotta start well, and Osaka could melt down. Bronzetti in great form, so anything could happen in this match.

I think Kudermetova beats Petra Kvitova. Kudermetova is a tough competitor and has been playing really well. Will combine this with Fruhvirtova to beat Badosa (obviously small bet).

I think the 1.57 on Swiatek to beat Guaff in straight sets is a reasonable price. Swiatek probably playing close to the best tennis of her life at the moment.

Edited by neilovan
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59 minutes ago, neilovan said:

In the woman's WTA in Miami , I think Collins will get the better of Jabeur. Collins looks fit and focused, and I am not sure that Jabeur is fully back from her injury. Again, crowd support will not hurt the American.

Quite happy to take a small double on Bronzetti to beat Saville (Gavrilova) and Osaka to lose to Riske. Riske has a decent chance, because Osaka is just so brittle, and hearing an American crowd, supporting an American will probably upset her. Riske just gotta start well, and Osaka could melt down. Bronzetti in great form, so anything could happen in this match.

I think Kudermetova beats Petra Kvitova. Kudermetova is a tough competitor and has been playing really well. Will combine this with Fruhvirtova to beat Badosa (obviously small bet).

I think the 1.57 on Swiatek to beat Guaff in straight sets is a reasonable price. Swiatek probably playing close to the best tennis of her life at the moment.

I think the crowd will be at least as much for Osaka as for Riske, she might not be American but her persona is very 'modern day American' in character. I take your point though, Osaka brittleness means you're never quite sure what you're going to get.

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Strange match for Riske. Had chances but Osaka just played a little bit better than her at crucial stages. FOr me an in play bet is Alcaraz, who looks comfortable against Cliic and Swiatek to win later. Prob gets 5 to 10 but decent odds for 2 mismatches. Just no way that Cilic can in this match.

Edited by neilovan
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17 hours ago, neilovan said:

I find this level of tennis very unpredictable. The shorter the event, the more unpredictable. The lower the quality of the contestants, the more unpredictable. Just a no-go zone for me.

I cannot put into words how much I agree with this comment. That's why I exclusively started betting on the ATP for a few years now. I know the players , I know what they can do and I know they re mosty gonna try to win at that level.

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19 hours ago, neilovan said:

The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;

Brooksby v Bautista Agut.  Brooksby lucky being 4-0 down in 3rd set 

Karatsev v Hurkacz.  Hurkacz wins but shows impatience and frustration

Harris v Nishioka

Korda v Kecmanovic Expected win for the Serb

Fritz v Paul Expected easy win

Tsitsipas v De Minaur  Same old De Minaur, flyweight in the middle weight division

 

Disappointing from Hurkacz and De Minaur . Hurkacz looks a marginal bet at the moment. He gets frustrated and aggro on the court and he can't seem to figure out what to do against a tricky opponent. Saw the same stuff against Mannarino at the Aussie Open where he was bamboozled. Di Minaur will just not beat top 15 players with his game.  Brooksby escaped , but his opponent will wonder what happened there.

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Linda Fruhvirtova showed a lot indeed, but there are still a few issues. Little in terms of serve and raw power, which are the two main areas she has to improve in to be a major contender. Obviously that's only natural, just pointing it out. She defended incredibly against Azarenka, absorbing her power the best she could, but she has issues finishing points off herself. The same against Mertens, against Kovinic she had it easier for obvious reasons. But, after being more hyped about Brenda, we might actually be more Linda! Btw, the same thing happened with Pliskovas. Early on, Kristyna was the much better player...and how did that turn out.

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Very average prospects today;

Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 

Kyrigos v SInner

The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).

Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.

Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9

Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.

Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.

Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

Edited by neilovan
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2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Very average prospects today;

Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 

Kyrigos v SInner

The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).

Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.

Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9

Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.

Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.

Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

wow 52 years of tennis..that's just amazing. Sucks that here in romania we're mostly just about football and not even my close friends like playing tennis much.

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3 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

wow 52 years of tennis..that's just amazing. Sucks that here in romania we're mostly just about football and not even my close friends like playing tennis much.

Because in Romania is too expensive for ordinary people. 

Also, Wawrinka blew a 4-1 lead to lose 4-6 ?

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3 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

wow 52 years of tennis..that's just amazing. Sucks that here in romania we're mostly just about football and not even my close friends like playing tennis much.

In the 70's South Africa was very similar to Australia. Living was cheap, with good weather and lot's of land. As things got more expensive courts were demolished and property sub-divided and sold off. I went to Buenos Aires for work about 15 years ago, and was amazed to see so many public courts. All well appointed, neat, clay , floodlights with tennis federation sponsored coaches, and free balls. As a kid, grab your shoes and a racquet and head on over to the local club. It just makes the game so affordable, and lowers the barrier to entry.  Few people can afford private coaching for kids 3 times a week, France, is the same with the French tennis federation doing an excellent job. 

My club (Wanderers) is ridiculous. There are 11 all weather courts with floodlights. You pay subscriptions of about 185 pounds for the year, but you can play as much as you like. On a Sunday you could play all day if you wanted.  They have a 6 a side soccer center with 4 fields, cricket oval, astro turf hockey where the National team plays, BIG running club, 4 lawn bowling greens, with nice decks and bar area. If you like sport and being outdoors it's perfect   And we have a 3 month Winter, where it doesn't rain (perfect blue sky's).

But we have other issues ???

Edited by neilovan
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16 minutes ago, Stanimal said:

Because in Romania is too expensive for ordinary people. 

Also, Wawrinka blew a 4-1 lead to lose 4-6 ?

I just saw on bet 365 Mlandanovic getting drilled 6-0 2nd set after holding a 4-1 lead in the 1st set and blowing that. She is fragile...

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First match today is Ruud against Norrie and I'm going for Norrie. He's done really well this North American hard court swing and even on a slower hard court I think he's got a chance against Ruud. The h2h suggests otherwise but they can be misleading and I think he's a better player now than the last time they met on an outdoor hard court and where Norrie was an even money shot.

15pts Norrie to beat Ruud @ 2.50 365

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I'll take a few outrights on the exchanges as well now that we're down to the business end of the tournaments. I want Medvedev onside as I think he'll be really trying to win this bearing in mind the tour moves to clay next and that's not a surface he enjoys. I'll also back Zverev as his price is too big considering he's adept on both hard and clay and so the slower hard courts here shouldn't be a problem for him. His form hasn't been great recently but he's too good of a player to go too much longer without a title. I'm also taking Alcaraz as he's playing really well and these could be ideal conditions for him to win a big hard court title.

If she carries on the way she is then Swiatek should be winning on the WTA side. There's a question mark about whether all the fanfare of her getting to the top of the rankings will be a distraction, but even with that I can't not back her as her form is so strong. I also want to back Badosa because these conditions suit her and she's won a big title like this one before.

20pts Medvedev to win ATP Miami @ 3.35

45pts Zverev to win ATP Miami @ 6.29

10pts Alcaraz to win ATP Miami @ 6.68

-------------------------------------------------

35pts Swiatek to win WTA Miami @ 2.57

5pts Badosa to win WTA Miami @ 8.06

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Wow, Kyrgios was banker today for me... Really few big mistakes from my side last 2-3 days... Which cost me a lot of money. Sinner struggled in first round, then against Carreno Busta and Kyrgios was so powerfull against Rublev and Fognini... How is this outcome even possible?

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17 minutes ago, carina007 said:

Wow, Kyrgios was banker today for me... Really few big mistakes from my side last 2-3 days... Which cost me a lot of money. Sinner struggled in first round, then against Carreno Busta and Kyrgios was so powerfull against Rublev and Fognini... How is this outcome even possible?

Kyrgios is inconsistent @carina007 and apart from that, there is no such thing as a banker and everything is possible in tennis. Just this week, Bautista Agut lost from two breaks up in the final set against Brooksby. Before Brooksby won 6 games in a row from 4-0 down in that final set, he could be backed at 100 to 1 to win the match. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to betting in tennis, or for that matter betting in general. There is literally no bet you can place that is guaranteed to happen.

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Watching Kyrigos implode, just makes me wonder why I ever backed that guy. Maybe I'm a sucker for flawed talented people. He just can't control himself. Disappointed to see Tiafoe lose. Went to sleep after he won the 1st set. Drifted off and lost his way ...

For me SInner at 1.6 to 10 to beat Cerundolo is a complete joke. He has not been playing great, and there is something that Cerundolo likes in Miami. Maybe very similar to Argentina (where he also played very well). Cerundolo has 2 recent wins over Kecmanovic, so I don't think this is a cruise for Sinner. Maybe he is too good, but I think it could be closer than expected. Young players need confidence, and that comes from winning. When you win, and keep winning you also buy into the coaches plan and tactics more easily.  I would be going over 20.5 games here.

Not feeling it for Zverev over Ruud. Perhaps I have a sub-conscious dislike for Zverev, but I see no progress in his mentality or game. Seems to have stagnated a little, and what you see is what you get. I thought he was brilliant at the Olympics, where he turned it on 2nd and 3rd sets to flatten Djoko. Perhaps just a purple patch fluke? I think Ruud probably runs a close 1st set and then loses the second. Possibly a small bet on the over 21.5 games.

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