Tennis Tips - March 28 - April 3

[raduvlad1995]

28 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Watching Kyrigos implode, just makes me wonder why I ever backed that guy. Maybe I'm a sucker for flawed talented people. He just can't control himself. Disappointed to see Tiafoe lose. Went to sleep after he won the 1st set. Drifted off and lost his way ...

For me SInner at 1.6 to 10 to beat Cerundolo is a complete joke. He has not been playing great, and there is something that Cerundolo likes in Miami. Maybe very similar to Argentina (where he also played very well). Cerundolo has 2 recent wins over Kecmanovic, so I don't think this is a cruise for Sinner. Maybe he is too good, but I think it could be closer than expected. Young players need confidence, and that comes from winning. When you win, and keep winning you also buy into the coaches plan and tactics more easily.  I would be going over 20.5 games here.

Not feeling it for Zverev over Ruud. Perhaps I have a sub-conscious dislike for Zverev, but I see no progress in his mentality or game. Seems to have stagnated a little, and what you see is what you get. I thought he was brilliant at the Olympics, where he turned it on 2nd and 3rd sets to flatten Djoko. Perhaps just a purple patch fluke? I think Ruud probably runs a close 1st set and then loses the second. Possibly a small bet on the over 21.5 games.

same, when I ve seen sinner's odds it looked just ridiculous to me, he is very overhyped by betting agencies. I though about zverev winning against ruud and medvedev hurkacz over 20.5 games or something like that ? 

[Stanimal]

4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

you romanian man ? and yeah I ve seen , vintage stan

Da. Sunt constănțean. ?

[Stanimal]

4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

great night last night had zverev and alcaraz to win and over 20,5 on fritz kecmanovic....alcaraz is truly amazing and something else, future all time great guaranteed.

The future nr 1 in my eyes. No one from this 'new' generation can challenge him on clay even on slow hard courts in the next seasons(if he stays healthy) . Just 18 years old.. ?

[Torque]

22 hours ago, Torque said:

15pts Norrie to beat Ruud @ 2.50 365

Norrie was never in it unfortunately. Being hampered by an injury didn't help, but even without that it might not have made a difference. Ruud played very well. About Sinner v Cerundolo, it's funny how people can see things differently. When I saw the prices, the first thing I thought was Sinner was some value and I still think that. Yes Cerundolo has had some good wins to get to this stage, but it's Sinner that has shown his talent at this level over a long period of time. To put it another way, if this was a first round match then Sinner would probably have been chalked up at 10 to 1 on or maybe even shorter.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Torque

[neilovan]

The more I look at later stage tournament matches, the more I'm thinking 'In game bet'. 

Ok your odds are less, but it is very difficult to turn a match around against a very solid opponent, 

AN interesting thing to look at is front runners. How often does a player win when they win the 1st set? If I can find someone that is very good at winning from this situation, I am prepared to take a discounted price. For me this applies more to the WTA, as all matches are best of 3 sets.

So you look at a guy like Jannick Sinner. From 12/31/2018 he had 78 matches where he won the 1st set, he won 68 times for a win rate of 87%. If you take 1 and divide by 0.87 you get 1.15. So if Sinner wins the 1st set, and you are still getting odds > 1.15  you are in the advantage zone. ANd this applies all over the place. Take a guy like C.M Stebe  ... who ? He won 9 of 10 matches (in the same period), when he won the 1st set. Only loss against Cilic at the US Open in 2019. So it throws up some surprises, especially with lesser known players. I'm pretty sure you would have got better odds than 1.11 on Stebe to win, in most of those matches, after the first set.

Even in the match-up between Zverev and Ruud. Zverev has won 107 times in 120 when winning the 1st set (89%). Ruud has won 73 in 79 times (92%). It just shows you how crucial 1st set is, especially so in a 3 set match.

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

22 minutes ago, neilovan said:

The more I look at later stage tournament matches, the more I'm thinking 'In game bet'. 

Ok your odds are less, but it is very difficult to turn a match around against a very solid opponent, 

AN interesting thing to look at is front runners. How often does a player win when they win the 1st set? If I can find someone that is very good at winning from this situation, I am prepared to take a discounted price. For me this applies more to the WTA, as all matches are best of 3 sets.

So you look at a guy like Jannick Sinner. From 12/31/2018 he had 78 matches where he won the 1st set, he won 68 times for a win rate of 87%. If you take 1 and divide by 0.87 you get 1.15. So if Sinner wins the 1st set, and you are still getting odds > 1.15  you are in the advantage zone. ANd this applies all over the place. Take a guy like C.M Stebe  ... who ? He won 9 of 10 matches (in the same period), when he won the 1st set. Only loss against Cilic at the US Open in 2019. So it throws up some surprises, especially with lesser known players. I'm pretty sure you would have got better odds than 1.11 on Stebe to win, in most of those matches, after the first set.

Even in the match-up between Zverev and Ruud. Zverev has won 107 times in 120 when winning the 1st set (89%). Ruud has won 73 in 79 times (92%). It just shows you how crucial 1st set is.

 

Two things about that analysis @neilovan and using the two examples you gave. If you want to assess how often Sinner converts a first set lead into a win, I'd argue you need to not only look at how often he does it, but also how often his opponent has been able to win after losing the first set. That will give you a better idea of the chances of Sinner converting winning the opening set into winning the match. A good example of what I mean would be if he played Nadal or Djokovic - if he wins the first set against either of those there's no way he going to be 1.15 for the win, and that's because of how good Nadal and Djokovic are at winning from behind.  As for the Stebe example, you'd need way more than a ten match sample to say that any player is a reliable bet to win a match after taking the opening set.

[neilovan]

33 minutes ago, Torque said:

Two things about that analysis @neilovan and using the two examples you gave. If you want to assess how often Sinner converts a first set lead into a win, I'd argue you need to not only look at how often he does it, but also how often his opponent has been able to win after losing the first set. That will give you a better idea of the chances of Sinner converting winning the opening set into winning the match. A good example of what I mean would be if he played Nadal or Djokovic - if he wins the first set against either of those there's no way he going to be 1.15 for the win, and that's because of how good Nadal and Djokovic are at winning from behind.  As for the Stebe example, you'd need way more than a ten match sample to say that any player is a reliable bet to win a match after taking the opening set.

I agree. You could even take it further and look at how often he does it against ranks 25 and below, 26-55, 56-100 and 100+  and what those ranks do when they lose the 1st set.

 

Was just trying it and messing around with it (Boredom I guess).

Carballes Baena, Roberto vs Gaio, Federico

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.09

Virtanen, Otto vs Copil, Marius

2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.14

 

Waiting on Baena but still get 2.4 to 10   Just need to win 80% of the time.

Edited March 30, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

I'm adding to two positions in the outrights and that's Alcaraz and Badosa. The way Alcaraz turned things around against Tsitsipas was impressive and he's certainly capable of beating Kecmanovic in the next round. Badosa has drifted slightly despite getting the better of Fruhvirtova and that's probably because she was feeling unwell during the match, but assuming she's over that then there's not really any reason I can see for the drift.

20pts Alcaraz to win ATP Miami @ 4.04

20pts Badosa to win WTA Miami @ 8.84

[Torque]

Badosa retires in the first set against Pegula. Evidently not over whatever was bothering her the day of the Fruhvirtova match. I still think she was worth a punt though. If you only ever bet on players that are completely fit then I don't think you'd be placing many bets - there's nearly always some kind of niggle being carried.

[neilovan]

Imagine going to the tennis and Badosa retires and then Sinner retires. Do they give you your money back?

[raduvlad1995]

why the hell did sinner retire ? was he getting booed when he walked out ?

[CzechPunter]

Apparently foot blisters.

[raduvlad1995]

19 hours ago, Stanimal said:

Da. Sunt constănțean. ?

super tare, pacat ca-s din arges altfel poate ne vedeam la un tenis :))

[Stanimal]

7 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

super tare, pacat ca-s din arges altfel poate ne vedeam la un tenis :))

Locuiesc in București acum :))

 

[lelit]

CzechPunter,

 

Another 2 attempts that we are among the international tennis experts   

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, please keep the discussion in this thread to English. Obviously these odd messages are fine, but don't make it a habit!

[Foo_Fighter]

Who else fancies Jessica Pegula winning a set (or even the match) tonight? So many consecutive straight set victories for Iga... I feel she's bound to drop a set. Jessica was the winner (5-7, 6-4, 6-1) on their only encounter so far in Washington (Summer 2019). On the other hand, Swiatek is fearless and very confident these days... Anyway, at 2.4-2.45 there is value I can not pass up. 

Good luck.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Who else fancies Jessica Pegula winning a set (or even the match) tonight? So many consecutive straight set victories for Iga... I feel she's bound to drop a set. Jessica was the winner (5-7, 6-4, 6-1) on their only encounter so far in Washington (Summer 2019). On the other hand, Swiatek is fearless and very confident these days... Anyway, at 2.4-2.45 there is value I can not pass up. 

Good luck.

Looks good to me @Foo_Fighter Just as long as Swiatek wins 

[Torque]

Not much luck for me in the outrights so far. First Badosa is unwell, then Zverev is injured and now Medvedev isn't feeling well either. On top of that, Ruud called the trainer against Zverev but managed to recover. It all evens out in the end though, and I've still got Swiatek and Alcaraz standing so all isn't lost yet.

[raduvlad1995]

4 hours ago, lelit said:

CzechPunter,

 

Another 2 attempts that we are among the international tennis experts   

Yeah sorry it's not like you meet a conational on a random forum daily, we weren t talking about predictions anyway why so defensive ?

[Torque]

35 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

Yeah sorry it's not like you meet a conational on a random forum daily, we weren t talking about predictions anyway why so defensive ?

It's just an etiquette thing. This is an English forum so it's taken that anyone using it speaks English, even if they speak other languages as well. On that basis, it's not inclusive to post in any other language as most users likely won't understand.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, don't worry about it @raduvlad1995, you didn't do anything wrong, just don't let this develop into a multi-message communication. Anyway!

[CzechPunter]

[Robinnho]

Kyrgios gets a very big fine, the United States will have cost him dearly

Nick Kyrgios fined $35,000 by the ATP for four separate offences during his Miami Open fourth-round match on Tuesday. Audible Obscenity: $5,000 Unsportsmanlike Conduct: $5,000 Unsportsmanlike Conduct: $5,000 Verbal Abuse: $20,000.

 

This sanction is in addition to that of Indian Wells, where he threw his racket after his loss against Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals and almost knocked out a ball boy. This gesture had cost him 20,000 dollars, an inappropriate sum according to him .

The Australian has therefore already made good use of the credit card in the United States with a fine of 55,000 dollars in total. And the note could be even higher because he will play on clay in Houston next week before returning home. 

[amity]

He's like a petulant child. Nothing is ever his fault. I admit I enjoy watching him play, he very talented and often entertaining but it's no harm to see him getting a bit of comeuppance like this. He needs to grow up and realise the sun does not shine out of his you know what! ?

[Torque]

I'm going to put a little on Hurkacz in the outrights. Medvedev couldn't handle his serve and volley style and it'll be interesting to see how Alcaraz copes with it. Hurkacz really seems to enjoy this tournament having won it last year and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes on to do the same again this year. Some players really get on with some tournaments and it's looking like that's the case with Hubi here.

10pts Hurkacz to win ATP Miami @ 5.02

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm going to put a little on Hurkacz in the outrights. Medvedev couldn't handle his serve and volley style and it'll be interesting to see how Alcaraz copes with it. Hurkacz really seems to enjoy this tournament having won it last year and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes on to do the same again this year. Some players really get on with some tournaments and it's looking like that's the case with Hubi here.

10pts Hurkacz to win ATP Miami @ 5.02

I just can't put a cent on that guy. Reminds me of a Berdych or Sampras. Just dull individuals. I don't know why but I find his style of play absolutely dreary.

If I bet on him, I would be forced to watch the match, and every hour not wasted is precious too me ?

Edited April 1, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

Medvedev is having surgery on a hernia and will be out for a couple of months. Just a coincidence that includes the majority of the clay season 

[Torque]

Swiatek makes the final and so does Alcaraz and I'll be hoping both win. Both are favourites with Alcaraz particularly so, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them both lose. Osaka is serving extremely well and hit 18 aces against Bencic which is an incredible number, and she remains in my eyes the best hard court player despite her health struggles and current ranking. If she plays at the level that saw her win four hard court Grand Slams I think she beats Swiatek.

Ruud isn't without a chance against Alcaraz either. This is the biggest match that either player has played, but Ruud has more experience and much more variety in his game and that could cause Alcaraz problems. When I saw the prices, the first thing I thought was that Ruud is worth a bet at least on the handicaps and maybe the match line as well.

[Foo_Fighter]

My picks: Osaka & Alcaraz