Racing Chat- Saturday September 18th

[The Brigadier]

A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- 

Ayr 1.55

Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. 

JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill 

 

Newbury 2.15

The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. 

KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ayr 2.30

A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. 

BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 123456 Boylesports 

 

Newbury 2.50

Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor

 

Ayr 3.05

A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 3.25

A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a  long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. 

MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Ayr 3.40

As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also  drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. 

GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234567 Paddy Power

HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 

 

Newbury 4.00

The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. 

DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ayr 4.15

A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile  for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. 

HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- 

Ayr 1.55

Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. 

JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill 

 

Newbury 2.15

The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. 

KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ayr 2.30

A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. 

BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 123456 Boylesports 

 

Newbury 2.50

Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor

 

Ayr 3.05

A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 3.25

A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a  long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. 

MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Ayr 3.40

As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also  drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. 

GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234567 Paddy Power

HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 

 

Newbury 4.00

The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. 

DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ayr 4.15

A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile  for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. 

HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cracking write up as usual .

In the 4 races at Ayr over 5 & 5.5f on Thursday & Friday the winners have come from two from stall 8 , one from stall 9 & one from stall 4 .

Edited September 17, 2021 by calva decoy

[alexcaruso808]

Only one choice for me tomorrow...

AYR

3.40 - Popmaster 8/1.  Unplaced ?

 

Newmarket

4.25 - Fieldsman - 25/1 - EW

 

Edited September 18, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[calva decoy]

230 Ayr - Royal Scimitar 15/2 ew bet365 5 places 

230 Ayr - Gabrial The Devil 20/1 ew sky 6 places 

340 Ayr - Gulliver 16/1ew bet365 5 places 

340 Ayr - Venturous 22/1 ew sky 6 places .

[Lanky Lad]

Gow.Pk. 4.30 Solene Lilyette 12/1

Navan 2.55. Ingenious Stroke 5/1

Navan 4.40. Leac An Scail Lady 9/2

3x1 point win singles

3x1/2 point each way doubles

1/2 point each way treble.

Newmarket 3.15. 6x1 point St.F’casts : Live Your Dream, Mancini, Indigo Times

Gowran Park 4.30. 6x1 point St.F’casts: Solene Lilyette,Zamora, April Showers

Navan 4.40. 1 point Rev.F’casts. : Hymie Weiss,Leac An Scail Lady.

Tota Amount Staked = 15 points.

 

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for the 2 group races.

3:05 Ayr G3

1 Rishes Baar                  126+                 8/1

2 Lady of Yapham           122                   25/1

3 Hala Hala Yathmani      119+                4/1

4:00 Newbury G2

1 Hierarchy                     125                   22/1    (my nap)

1 Khunan                        125                   20/1

3 Wings of War               124                  14/1

[roger2256]

September  - 24

1pt level stakes win only 

15.25 New Mo'assess 7/1 

Price as of now b365 

[fd1972uk]

2 money back bets at Ayr 1355 - Euchen Glen (3), May Danny (4).

1650 Ayr Bowman

1540 Ayr Commanche Falls

E/w Ayr treble - 1430 Gabrial the Devil, 1505 Canonized, 1540 Summerghand

Treble - 1330 Mubadra, 1355 Juan Elcano, 1450 Al Aasy

E/w ff - Ayr 1430 Bergerac, 1540 Ayr Commanche Falls, New 1600 Hierachy, Ayr 1650 Wobwobwob

Apart from money backs and e/w ff all other bets are freebies. 

 

Edited September 18, 2021 by fd1972uk

[Bang on]

September running total = + 25.96 pts

Strange how it works, but despite it being a Saturday, there are no qualifiers today.

Monthly figures show 23 winners from 46 selections, giving the profit figure above.

[azzybear]

apple crumble 1.45

[Hotspur88]

Still not backing any but a few that interest me today....

1340 Newbury Tom Collins 11/2 available everywhere 1pt win

1525 Newbury Aramaic 3/1 available everywhere 1pt win

1530 Navan Bardenstown Lad 15/8 available @ bet365 2pt win

As I said, not backing but I will put pts next to each and track for the next month or so to see what the P/L would have been ??

So 4pts staked today! 

Edited September 18, 2021 by Barnes1882
Changed pts on the horses.

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

B/FWD SEP -5.47 POINTS

3.25 Nb Aramaic 3/1 DTR                                                   Alt (8) 11/2

4.00 Nb (4) Gubass 9/2 DTR                                               Alt (1) 11/4

4.35 Nb (8) Koy Koy 5/4 DTR                                              Alt (5) 5/2

1.15 Nav (8) Weeseekhimhere 7/5                                       Alt (14) 5/1

1.45 Nav (5) Apple Crumble 4/1                                          Alt (11) 15/2

2.55 Nav Chemical Energy 4/9                                            Alt No Bet

1.55 Ayr Juan Elcano 5/4                                                    Alt (1) 7/2

1.35 Gow History 15/8 DTR                                                Alt (15) 9/2

3.20 Gow Olivia Velere  11/2 DTR                                       Alt (2) 7/2

4.10 Catt Saligo Bay 5/4                                                     Alt (2) 7/2

4.45 Catt Caribeno 10/3                                                    Alt (3) 10/11 haha

5.15 Catt Old Flame 8/13                                                  Alt (1) 9/4

4.55 Wolv Thaki 13/8 DTR                                                 Alt (3) 15/8

8.30 Wolv Merlins Beard                                                   Alt (1) 5/2

14 Selections out of 54 = 26%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Book Bets

1.35 Gow History 7/4

1.45 Nav Apple Crumble 11/4

3.25 Nb Aramaic 3/1 (Timeform's star rated selection today, haha)

One £1 win Trixie = £4.00 Poss return of £77.56

Single bets

3.20 Gow Olivia Velere £1 win at 11/2

3.40 Ayr Ostileo £1 win at 11/1

4.00 Nb Gubass £1 win at 9/2

Total spend £7.00

 

[alancraik]

todays Ayr Selections

1:55 - Euchen Glen 7/2 win

3:40 - Great Ambassador 7/2 win (a wide open race also possibles Mr Lupton 33/1, Mr Wagyu 20/1, Popmaster 15/2)

4:15 - Cruyff Turn 11/2 e/w (also like Garden Oasis)

4:50 - Bowman 6/1 e/w

5:20 - Ben Lilly 10/1 e/w ( also in the picture Dark Jedi 11/4)

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Newmarket 3.15

TURNPIKE TRIP 3/1

[fd1972uk]

Maydanny win at 11/2, also money back as cash for Euchen Glen who finished 2nd.      

[MCLARKE]

I'll have a look at the trends for the Ayr Gold Cup. Quite a simple one today.

Drawn 1 to 7, 0 from 42.

1st 4 in the forecast betting, 4 from 24, others 3 from 121.

This leaves 2, POPMASTER (15/2) and BIELSA (11/1). 6 places available.

[MCLARKE]

11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Drawn 1 to 7, 0 from 42.

The silver cup 1st 2 were drawn 2 and 6 so perhaps this trend may not continue this year.

This analysis is more of a test for me, I'm not putting any money down until I've tried a few more and analysed the results. 

[LEE-GRAYS]

3.40 ayr Hey jonesy 40/1 e/w bet365

[azzybear]

Mr lumpton 3.40 ew  should run into a place at big odds 

[Tedthewolf]

Ayr gold cup

I am alsoj on  Hey Jonesy who is well tipped up in here but has 2 way of running  lets hope its a going day for him has not shown on 2 previous runs here but  worth taking e/w chance at 40's. Fivethousandtoone is my  main e/w fancy here at around 14/1  looks hard to keep out of the places  i will also throw in 100/1 shot Lahore  for a couple of pennies e/w

[Zilzalian]

54 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The silver cup 1st 2 were drawn 2 and 6 so perhaps this trend may not continue this year.

This analysis is more of a test for me, I'm not putting any money down until I've tried a few more and analysed the results. 

We can be our own worst enemies can we not? Seems obvious to me that Tim Easterby has had us all over with Staxon, next race Holly Doyle didn't worry about the draw much. and Looking at Mr Luptons last few runs it wont surprise me if Fahey doesn't have us all over in the gold cup

Edited September 18, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[fd1972uk]

Well.in profit, so done Popmaster and Bielsa small bets for Gold Cup. 

[fd1972uk]

Bielsa was the better winner for me, 11/1, had done Popmaster as decent record and due to my daughter nickname we give her, had also threw in a late Just Frank (my name, lol). But decent return anyway on top of earlier race. 

Might look at another couple of small bets, maybe. 

[Zilzalian]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures for the 2 group races.

3:05 Ayr G3

1 Rishes Baar                  126+                 8/1

2 Lady of Yapham           122                   25/1

3 Hala Hala Yathmani      119+                4/1

4:00 Newbury G2

1 Hierarchy                     125                   22/1    (my nap)

1 Khunan                        125                   20/1

3 Wings of War               124                  14/1

Summary- do not write off Rishes Baar ran as green as grass got unbalance and Watson nearly fell off but finished fifth btn 3 3/4L

Gutted about Hierarchy getting nabbed on the post but i will take a 120/1 Fc all day long although at my prices ( should have been over 200/1) was very disappointed, then even more so when the rule 4 kicked in.

[The Brigadier]

On 9/17/2021 at 3:54 PM, The Brigadier said:

A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- 

Ayr 1.55

Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. 

JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill 

 

Newbury 2.15

The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. 

KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ayr 2.30

A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. 

BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 123456 Boylesports 

 

Newbury 2.50

Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor

 

Ayr 3.05

A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 3.25

A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a  long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. 

MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Ayr 3.40

As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also  drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. 

GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234567 Paddy Power

HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 

 

Newbury 4.00

The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. 

DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ayr 4.15

A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile  for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. 

HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a disappointing day with just a couple of places for a loss of just over 15 points !

[Hotspur88]

6 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Still not backing any but a few that interest me today....

1340 Newbury Tom Collins 11/2 available everywhere 1pt win

1525 Newbury Aramaic 3/1 available everywhere 1pt win

1530 Navan Bardenstown Lad 15/8 available @ bet365 2pt win

As I said, not backing but I will put pts next to each and track for the next month or so to see what the P/L would have been ??

So 4pts staked today! 

Would have been a cracking start at -4pts ??‍♂️

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Newmarket 3.15

TURNPIKE TRIP 3/1

Won. BSP 3.01.

47 / 126, LSP + £36.72.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

B/FWD SEP -5.47 POINTS

3.25 Nb Aramaic 3/1 DTR                                                   Alt (8) 11/2

4.00 Nb (4) Gubass 9/2 DTR                                               Alt (1) 11/4

4.35 Nb (8) Koy Koy 5/4 DTR                                              Alt (5) 5/2

1.15 Nav (8) Weeseekhimhere 7/5                                       Alt (14) 5/1

1.45 Nav (5) Apple Crumble 4/1                                          Alt (11) 15/2

2.55 Nav Chemical Energy 4/9                                            Alt No Bet

1.55 Ayr Juan Elcano 5/4                                                    Alt (1) 7/2

1.35 Gow History 15/8 DTR                                                Alt (15) 9/2

3.20 Gow Olivia Velere  11/2 DTR                                       Alt (2) 7/2

4.10 Catt Saligo Bay 5/4                                                     Alt (2) 7/2

4.45 Catt Caribeno 10/3                                                    Alt (3) 10/11 haha

5.15 Catt Old Flame 8/13                                                  Alt (1) 9/4

4.55 Wolv Thaki 13/8 DTR                                                 Alt (3) 15/8

8.30 Wolv Merlins Beard                                                   Alt (1) 5/2

14 Selections out of 54 = 26%

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Book Bets

1.35 Gow History 7/4

1.45 Nav Apple Crumble 11/4

3.25 Nb Aramaic 3/1 (Timeform's star rated selection today, haha)

One £1 win Trixie = £4.00 Poss return of £77.56

Single bets

3.20 Gow Olivia Velere £1 win at 11/2

3.40 Ayr Ostileo £1 win at 11/1

4.00 Nb Gubass £1 win at 9/2

Total spend £7.00

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The  Big 3 got 7 winners today, hoorah, but they only made 1.56 points, sigh.  This gives them a c/fwd of -3.91

My alternative bets continue  to flounder with no winners today and a carry forward of -81.45 points

Only 22 races tomorrow so at least analysis should be easy

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Book bets:

I was tricked once again by Timeform's star rating of the day Aramaic in the 3.25 at Newbury and should have taken the safer option of Thaki in the 4.55 at Wolves.  I guess being greedy has its price.  Anyway no winners today and a £7.00 loss.  My new balance is £716.81 (Bank £1056.22)