Tennis Tips - January 11 - January 17

[CzechPunter]

Alright, it's time for us all to move onto the second week of the season! Good luck!

[AgaRadwanska]

@darko08How do you rate Sorribes Tormo's chances against Kostyuk? She's around 2.75 on Betfair.

[CzechPunter]

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (+5) to beat Tomas Machac at 1.97 with Pinnacle

I suppose that most mainstream tennis fans are yet to hear about Alves, but I saw him a couple of times last year and he's a decent prospect. He even took a set off Thiem back in February and he had a tremendous end to the year, as he won the Sao Paulo Challenger before losing in the semis of the Campinas Challenger. In the qualifiers, he's already managed to dispatch Klizan 6-1 6-4 and I wouldn't make him such a big underdog against Machac. Machac is better than Alves on hard courts, no doubt about that, but +5 games lines are big in men's tennis and Alves has every chance of covering it imo. I'd have the line at +4 at most, perhaps even +3.5 all things considered. If you feel like it, you can also go for a smaller stake on the outright at 5.75 with Unibet. There's definitely value in those odds, although Machac is the favorite.

 

[darko08]

53 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

@darko08How do you rate Sorribes Tormo's chances against Kostyuk? She's around 2.75 on Betfair.

I haven't seen Kostyuk since the USO so maybe @CzechPunter has a better opinion for this one. The surface favors Kostyuk and that victory (6-1,6-1) against Zidansek looks impressive (as I said, I haven't seen it). Zidansek is a claycourter as Sorribes and I consider Zidansek a better player.... Despite her youth I think the odds are right but I wouldn't be surprised if Sorribes give some resistance. It will depend on how accurate Kostyuk will be because the match will be on her racket. Let's see what Czech and the others thinks but my feelings are Kostyuk will win in 2 or 3 sets...

[darko08]

Imo, if I were looking for a non favorite player to win i would pick Rybakina (vs Sabalenka) or Kudermetova (vs Svitolina). Sabalenka is on fire but Rybakina is also in a very good form and she's better priced than Sorribes (vs Kostyuk)... and Svitolina today has won miraculously against Alexandrova so I wouldn't be surprised to see her suffering a lot against Kudermetova

[darko08]

Rybakina (+4.00 Games) to beat Sabalenka with Marathonbet

Sabalenka is in a 12 winning streak or something like that...but I expect a hard match for her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her losing despite the odds. Both players have won their matches without dropping a single set. Sabalenka has more power but I see Rybakina more consistent and her serve is more reliable, this will be a nice match to watch... 

The +3.5 Games is paid at 1.90 at most bookies

[AgaRadwanska]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

I haven't seen Kostyuk since the USO so maybe @CzechPunter has a better opinion for this one. The surface favors Kostyuk and that victory (6-1,6-1) against Zidansek looks impressive (as I said, I haven't seen it). Zidansek is a claycourter as Sorribes and I consider Zidansek a better player.... Despite her youth I think the odds are right but I wouldn't be surprised if Sorribes give some resistance. It will depend on how accurate Kostyuk will be because the match will be on her racket. Let's see what Czech and the others thinks but my feelings are Kostyuk will win in 2 or 3 sets...

I watched the whole match back vs Zidansek. She (Zidansek) played horribly throughout, thus the 6-1,6-1 drumming. I'm sure she's better than that isolated performance, but still, it isn't difficult to beat someone who's consistently hitting the ball out of play or into the net 9/10 times. My point is that this wasn't a Kostyuk masterclass by any means. 

also, Kostyuk REALLY struggled vs Hseih after going a set and 5-1 up. as in, she completely fell apart (broken 3 times on the bounce whilst serving for match) - and that's vs. Hseih, who has essentially no serve and plays almost casually. I think vs a player who makes very few mistakes and who a great defensive game, she may come unstuck, get frustrated, and perhaps forget how to serve for half the match (again). I'll probably bite at 2.75. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Yeah that looks like something that could easily happen @AgaRadwanska, Kostyuk is quite prone to self-destructing, very little consistency and it sounds like she had it easy against Zidansek. 2.75 is something I wouldn't be afraid of honestly, there should be at least a slice of value there.

[vladisimo2]

I guess I'd go today for de minaur winning 2-0 against basilashvili and berretini beating bublik. Bashilashvili is very aggresive and I can totaly see de minaur's consistency and insane defence frustrate him and make him  committ errors. And berretini is simply better than bublik, he has more reliable and bigger weapons.

[darko08]

that 48% 1st serve percentage in the third set from Rybakina... the match was a 50-50 till that imo...but happy cause the +3.5 is in. 

@AgaRadwanska looks reasonable.. as I said I didnt know how that match (vs Zidansek) really was. Let's see.

Edited January 11, 2021 by darko08

[vladisimo2]

 I can also see mager taking a set off christian harrison(IMO the italian is the better player anyway). Mager was solid and resilient against querrey so I don't think he'll go down easily here. And another one that I've bet on is isner - korda over 21,5 games (which was the lowest line available on Unibet). Korda was able to back up his serve against a good returner in tommy paul so normaly he should be able to hold it against isner no problem , while isner will just be himself and servebot like usual. The only problem with this one is that Korda seemed to have a knee problem against paul so that's maybe something to keep in mind..

Edited January 11, 2021 by vladisimo2

[CzechPunter]

Yep, Korda needed a treatment in the first set, carried a tape from then on. His movement didn't look limited, though, so perhaps that won't be much of an issue. I'd look for how the first games go to get a better grasp.

[vladisimo2]

I overrated berretini alot, he could have broken back in that 2'nd set so easily , yet it's incredible how he missed some shots at 3-2 for bublik. Yep this one was my mistake.

[darko08]

Kudermetova to beat Kostyuk at 1.73 with William Hill

I like how is paid Kudermetova, I was expecting something different... I have nothing much to say, she is better player and she has faced better players (Kontaveit, Badosa and Svitolina). Today she has won against Svitolina after losing the first set and I liked so much what I have seen from her. I haven't liked what I have seen about Kostyuk. She has played a lot of points with too much precipitation, looking for fast winners. She has played a horrible first set (6-0) and could have lost the whole match against Sorribes.

EDIT. When I started writing this she was paid at 1.73 in William Hill, but has dropped to 1.57...

1.61 with bet365 still has value imo

Edited January 11, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Marta Kostyuk at 1.61 with Bet365

Fully agree with @darko08 here, even 1.61 is value, I'd go for something like 1.50 or even a tad lower as fair odds. She's been great so far in this season and is a level above Kostyuk in most regards. Unless she runs out of stamina, she'll win this comfortably.

[AgaRadwanska]

I'm a little confused by what I've seen of Kostyuk of late. I watched her previously last year vs Osaka, and was quite impressed - especially considering her young age.

Then I watched her vs. Hseih, and she stormed through the first set and then to a 5-1 lead... and then she served for the match, and lost. and again, and lost. and again, and lost. and managed 2 points across the whole 3 service games, going on to lose the tie break. 

And then in the third set she suddenly remembered how to serve again, and that she's A LOT better than Hseih at tennis. 

Likewise vs. Sorribes Tormo, dreadful first set, failed to hold serve, loses 6-0. Second set she's world class. How can you flick between playing appallingly to suddenly playing very very well? Does not compute.

[CzechPunter]

Well, remember how Ostapenko won the French Open and then didn't get much for quite some time? ?

[liquidglass]

9 hours ago, darko08 said:

Kudermetova to beat Kostyuk at 1.73 with William Hill

I like how is paid Kudermetova, I was expecting something different... I have nothing much to say, she is better player and she has faced better players (Kontaveit, Badosa and Svitolina). Today she has won against Svitolina after losing the first set and I liked so much what I have seen from her. I haven't liked what I have seen about Kostyuk. She has played a lot of points with too much precipitation, looking for fast winners. She has played a horrible first set (6-0) and could have lost the whole match against Sorribes.

EDIT. When I started writing this she was paid at 1.73 in William Hill, but has dropped to 1.57...

1.61 with bet365 still has value imo

Two things I am going to say in opposition to this pick. The first is that women's tennis has come a long way already where the gap between the very good and good is hardly noticeable. I believe that aside match experience, Kostyuk is as good as any top tier player today and is at a stage in her career where she should hold no fears against anyone. I wrote about her a few times last year because of the raw potential that I saw in her crying out to explode. She beat Soribes yesterday from that innate belief. I believe that she beats kudermentova today and rolls one. Secondly this forum as i know has a big negative record when one pick is seconded by a different person as in two entries. This one seconded by Czech. Nothing to do with the pickers, more to do with the trend. I am believing trend continues. Kostyuk for the win here. Should have the more penetrating ground strokes. Good luck

[ElPrincipito007]

De Minaur @1,66 (betfirst)

I really like the odds here. Goffin, after a disastrous 2020, won 3 matches here, but his opponents weren't as good as De Minaur is. De Minaur really had a good end of the season and is doing well here. I think this odd is quite generous, given the form De Minaur is in. Even against an in form Goffin, I like the chances of De Minaur.

[Robinnho]

5 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Two things I am going to say in opposition to this pick. The first is that women's tennis has come a long way already where the gap between the very good and good is hardly noticeable. I believe that aside match experience, Kostyuk is as good as any top tier player today and is at a stage in her career where she should hold no fears against anyone. I wrote about her a few times last year because of the raw potential that I saw in her crying out to explode. She beat Soribes yesterday from that innate belief. I believe that she beats kudermentova today and rolls one. Secondly this forum as i know has a big negative record when one pick is seconded by a different person as in two entries. This one seconded by Czech. Nothing to do with the pickers, more to do with the trend. I am believing trend continues. Kostyuk for the win here. Should have the more penetrating ground strokes. Good luck

I agree with this pick for the tennis played by Kostyuk and not so much about the "seconded" thing.  Kuder may be more experience and mature than the young Kostyuk who is not so consistent and blows hot and cold.  The most important is her desire to win and targeted to reach the top-50 this season.  Tennis wise, the underdog's odds does not suggest her chance of winning but in my opinion closer to 50-50.   

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @Olymp! No, I do not grade my bets on the forums, but I can tell you that the last season was losing after a few profitable ones. Is there any data point you'd like to see or is that actually a dig haha?

[darko08]

@liquidglass i agree that the gap between good and very good players is really short but the "seconded thing" is completely senseless...it would be nice to see you posting predictions with better reasons than "the pick has been secunded by 2 different persons"... 
btw, @CzechPunter I dont know how that brazilian guy won against Klizan (well, considering his suspicious record of defeats against unknown players at ridiculous odds, I can imagine...) but he has seemed to me the typical clay court player that has no idea of how he has to move on a fast court

[CzechPunter]

@darko08 Didn't get to see the first set, but Alves had chances in the second. Even with the result, I think he was a bit underrated and shouldn't have been as high as 5.75 in places. About 3.75 perhaps. I'm pretty sure I'm going to back him on clay at some point.

[vladisimo2]

Unfortunately I didn't have the time to post my bets today. But fortunately after a bad day yesterday I won today . Bet that both de minaur and bublik will win and yeah they did. On hurkacz - harrison , I'd maybe go with an over 19,5 games since harrison (even though IMO he's a mediocre player and FAR inferior to hurkacz) did fight hard and stayed very focused here while hurkacz did seem to struggle with quiroz (a player whom realy shouldn't have posed any problems to the pole). I, myself will not  bet  anything on this one but I'm curious what opinions you guys have about this match.

Edited January 12, 2021 by vladisimo2

[CzechPunter]

I'd definitely rather be on the over than on the under, but, as you've mentioned, Hurkacz is by far the better player. I can see him winning by several breaks if he's on, though Harrison has a good enough serve to keep in tight and that's why I'd stay away. Not only that, but he also has the right mindset and is having the event of his life.

[vladisimo2]

6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'd definitely rather be on the over than on the under, but, as you've mentioned, Hurkacz is by far the better player. I can see him winning by several breaks if he's on, though Harrison has a good enough serve to keep in tight and that's why I'd stay away. Not only that, but he also has the right mindset and is having the event of his life.

yep prety much this. Hurkacz seems to be wildly inconsistent which is unfortunate since I saw him as a next berdych like player.

[fizrukas]

Cedrik Marcel Stebe (-3.5) to beat Viktor Troicki || 2.10 @ OLYBET 

The AO already started,  and we all love the Gs tournaments,  there is plenty to choose from.  Of course the covid thing puts us all in questionable situation,  because we not see much of tennis lately,  and right now is better to stay away from betting.  

My bet here based mostly against Troicki,  than on Marcel, because he hasn't played much in the past year. And more likely to go further in doubles than singles. So we have german on the other side, who won one tournament by the end of 2020. Both met before once, back in 2012 and marcel won it. Expect close sets but i rather pick here german, i guess he is more fit for AO than the serb.  

GL ? 

[CzechPunter]

Cameron Norrie to beat Sebastian Korda at 2.21 with Pinnacle

I'm not quite sure what makes Norrie the underdog in this one, I think that it's 50/50 at worst for the Brit. Korda did beat Isner, but that doesn't count for THAT much nowadays and this will be a different match-up, closer to the one with Paul where he struggled big time on occasions. Norrie looked incredible in patches against Tiafoe and had only a few bad patches of play. Everything above evens is worth taking imo.

[K8a]

I agree this is a 50/50 game. But I’ll go for the over 22 games since you can make an argument on either side winning .

[darko08]

Valeria Savinykh (+5.5 Games) to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.91 with William Hill

The only match from the qualies that I have watched is the Bonaventure-Lottner match. I think I have never watched Savinykh (and if I did, i don't remember) but I'm impressed with her numbers here. She has won against Vikhlyantseva (6-2, 6-4) at 5.5 and Gatto-Monticone (6-4, 7-6) at 3.0. Taking a look at her record career it's clear that she's a hard court player (179-117). Obviously, most of these matches have been against low ranked players but when she has played against top 100 players, she has done well. Bonaventure has won against Kostic (6-3, 6-3) and Lottner (6-1, 6-3). As I said, I have watched that match and Lottner has played with back problems (she was unable to run). 

I think the odds are wrong and I think she even can win the whole match. The single victory is paid at 5.00 in some bookies but I will go with the Games handicap.