Racing Chat- Saturday December 26th

[The Brigadier]

Kempton on Boxing Day – a Christmas tradition though it’s sure to be different this year with no crowds there though the racing looks top class and here’s my thoughts on the meeting.

Firstly the ground and although it was updated to good to soft (soft in places) on Wednesday afternoon I can see it riding slower than that and for my preview I’m looking at soft ground.

 

12.40 2m novice hurdle 

Favourite here is likely to be Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki who surely gave the winner at Cheltenham too much rope out in front last time. He’s better than that but the negatives against him are the fact that he has to shoulder a double 8lb penalty and he may not be best suited by very soft ground. At around 6/4 I can leave him for sure. Paul Nicholl’s Flic Ou Voyou may also not be suited by very soft ground and has the 8lb penalty to carry. Severance was 20 lengths behind Flic Ou Voyou and the interesting well related Go Sacre Go is likely to be a drifter. The one I’m with here is the Alan King trained 6 year old On To Victory who although not setting the world alight in his first season over hurdles did appear to improve on the flat since and actually ended up winning the November Handicap at Doncaster and finished the season rated a lofty 105 in that sphere. His best form has come with plenty of cut in it and getting weight from the two aforementioned penalised runners will do for me. 

ON TO VICTORY 1 point win @  4/1 Bet365

 

1.15 Novices’ handicap chase 

Dan Skelton could be in for a big day and his Alnadam has a very big chance here following a comprehensive victory at Sandown 3 weeks ago. He’s been shunted up 8lb by the handicapper for that but is a player here. Nicky Henderson saddles two and this is a meeting he does particularly well at over the years. I prefer fencing newcomer Son Of Camas over Falco Blitz. He has always been highly thought of by Nicky and his team at Seven Barrows and by all accounts jumps very well. His mark of 132 looks workable and although the excuse from the trainer on his disappointing run at Cheltenham was the ground was too soft I’m prepared to give him another chance. Here’s what Nicky had to say about him in a recent Racing Post trainer file (before his Cheltenham flop incidentally) “We're fond of him and he's a big future over fences - he could be top class. He's had a wind operation over the summer and could improve for time and going two and a half miles. 

The other one I like here is top weight Hold The Note whose trainer Mick Channon has a very good record in the race winning it with Glen Forsa in 2018 and also runner up in 2017 with Mister Whittaker and in 2014 with Knock House. He blatantly didn’t stay over 3 1 1/2f at Cheltenham last time and kindly the handicapper has dropped him 3lb which means he’s eligible for this race. He’s now 5lb lower than when 3^rd in last season’s Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival to Imperial Aura and Galvin – two smart chasers. I’ll take the pair against the field. 

SON OF CAMAS 1 point each way @ 10/1 Coral 1/5 odds 1-2-3

HOLD THAT NOTE 1 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5 odds 1-2-3

 

1.50 3m Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 

Shan Blue has been very impressive when winning both his chases this season at Wetherby notably last time when hammering Snow Leopardess into 2^nd with that one going on to win a decent Haydock handicap. It’ll take a very smart one to beat him today. The Big Breakaway was very disappointing last time and although the trip was surely to blame he did hit a flat spot on his chasing debut at Cheltenham where you could argue that Gumball wasn’t done with when crashing out two from home. If The Cap Fits is the best in on official ratings and has claims but it’s got to be the Skelton horse for me. 

SHAN BLUE 2 points win @ 2/1 Coral

 

2.25 2m Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 

Epatante first the rest nowhere! That’s how I see this race. Nicky Henderson’s very smart hurdler has never really been given the recognition she deserves despite winning last season’s Champion Hurdle but she looked very smart when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her re-appearance and already holds both Silver Streak and Ballyandy on last year’s running on identical ground. She’s only ever been beaten twice in her career, on her debut and when flopping in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham when something was obviously amiss. Dirgo Du Charmil is not good enough and if you do want a bet in the race it may well be the favourite to beat her stable mate Floressa who although with a bit to find on ratings is an improving mare.

 

EPATANTE to beat FLORESSA 1 point straight forecast

 

3.00 3m Ladbrokes King George V1 Chase 

An excellent renewal featuring nine top chasers. Paul Nicholl’s saddles 4 of the 9 with joint favourites at the time of writing Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname. The former has won this event the last two years and must go close although he did have a gruelling race in the mud at Haydock when losing the battle with course specialist Bristol De Mai 35 days ago. Last season he had had a 54 day break since his prep run at Down Royal and the previous season backed up after a 32 day break when 4^th in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. His stable companion Cyrname possibly lost his race here last season when having a hard race in beating Altior at Ascot just 33 days prior to lining up here but this season he’s back after a 56 day break following a very visually impressive win of the Charlie Hall at Wetherby over 3m on soft ground putting to bed the theory that he doesn’t truly stay 3m once and for all. It’s a tight call between them with the trainer himself even in print saying he can’t split them. I did enjoy assistant trainer Harry Derham’s views on the excellent Nick Luck podcast the other day mind as he sounded very much in the Cyrname camp and he’s my pick here. Of the others if it did turn into a real slog then Santini, runner up in last season’s Gold Cup, would very much come into it. There are however stamina doubts over Saint Calvados and Waiting Patiently. Lostintranslation pulled up in this last season and ran no sort of race in the Betfair Chase behind Cyrname last time. I find it hard to fancy him. Real Steel and Frodon are the other two Nicholl’s runners but wouldn’t be for me.  

CYRNAME (pictured below) 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

 

3.35 2m 5f handicap hurdle 

Biggest field of the day with 17 declared and a wide open look about it. Nicky Henderson has three entered and its Barbados Blue that catches my eye in her first handicap off of only 119. She’s been off for 593 day but by all accounts is a big mare who’s working well and will enjoy the soft surface. She’s high on my shortlist. This is what Henderson said about her 6 weeks ago “A first-time-out bumper winner, she scored comfortably at Kempton in May last year but came back with a leg problem. She was going nicely in the spring, has size and scope and jumps pleasingly. With no miles on the clock, she's exciting” .Ecco is another I like here, she can race off of the same mark as when awarded the race at Doncaster from Glynn 15 days ago (previously 3^rd to Buzz at Ascot which looks good form). Dan Skelton’s Riggs who was so impressive at Uttoxeter last time though has been raised 9lb for that is another that can go well. 

BARBADOS BLUE 1 point each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 

 

[Villa Chris]

Cheers for the write ups. Much appreciated. I rated a couple of races up yesterday whilst I had time, and going to do a few now whilst the kids are still in bed. What a fascinating King George. It’s not usually the strongest of big races imo, and I honestly think it’s a two horse race, but I can’t split Clan and Cyrname. Regarding betting on the race I could quite easily give it a miss and enjoy the spectacle, but I’ll see who drifts and then put them in a treble with Epatante and Shan Blue. I think Clan is the one to beat , but the way Cyrname made easy work of that lot at wetherby lto was pretty impressive, and there was loads left in the tank. I also thought clan ran a blinder in the Betfair chase. He usually needs his first run but he was bang there with Bristol De Mai, on ground that probably doesn’t suit . I got him at 11/2 last year in this, which looking back now was a crazy price, as this race is basically he’s gold cup. 

[Villa Chris]

3.35 Kempton 

providing it stays G/S, not much rain predicted for the first day at Kempton 

Who’s My Jockey 16.17 (doesn’t want it softer than G/S)

Push The Tempo 12.37

Switch Hitter 12.9

 Top three rated good prices at 20/1, 14/1, and 7/1. I’ll play ew on Who’s My Jockey providing it stays on the Good side of soft . He’s a CD winner and also ran well here two starts back to finish 5/10 in what was a close finished decent race .
 

This will be my only single bet at the meeting. Might play a double/treble with some others . 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Wetherby 1.28 

Should remain soft here, with rain forecast on Saturday following two dry days today and tomorrow. As it’s Xmas I’ll play some class 3 races which I like the look of . 
 

Mercian Prince 22.64

Johnbb 20.82

Demi Sang 18.15

Mercian Prince seems to prefer better ground but has won well in soft conditions before over CD scoring a good RPR of 149. 
 

Mercian Prince is currently 3/1

Wetherby 2.05 (class 2)

Snow Leopardess 18.36

Wandrin Star 12.76

Beau Bay 11.82

 

[Wildgarden]

115 kempton son of camas 8.6 Betfair exchange

220 Wolverhampton red verdon asking for 18.0 on exchanges or Betfair sp if not matched.

[richard-westwood]

Fascinating racing today ...wetherby looks on the muddy side ...kempton there are some classy races but prices are way too short so I'll just be watching with interest.....sticking with wolv today ....I'll rate a few races and enjoy the racing 

145 wolv

Aldwych 255

Carey street 253 

These 2 are clear of rest ....not the walk over that's predicted as the fav is penalised 12lbs (offset 5lb with the claim ) so it's difficult to gauge where the horse will come in due to jockey ability .....best to Dutch 

Aldwych 14.13 pts win 2.66 betfair

Carey street 5.87 pts win 6.4 betfair 

17 .5 pts profit either winner 

 

[skylark2009]

Running Total (-18.22pts)

Kempton 12.40

4th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, Third Time Lucki then started his hurdle career by winning his first two races. He left himself to much to do last time out, but did make up a lot of ground to be beaten by 3¾l's into 2nd place. Looks progressive and may make amends today. 

Third Time Lucki - 3pts win @ 11/8 B365

Kempton 13.50

Ran very well last time out and won comfortably, the 2nd (Darlac) won next time. 8/1 with B365 looks a huge price here, so an E/w bet. 

Enrilo - 1pt E/w @ 8/1 B365

Wetherby 14.05

Last time out winner (the 6th placed won next time). Trainer is 6 wins from 13 runners at Wetherby with runners who had won last time out.

Snow Leopardess - 2pts win @ 9/2 B365

Leopardstown 14.15

Likes to lead in his races and shows battling qualities to get back to the front when behind. French breds have won this race in 5 of the last 6 runnings (Notebook (GER) won this last year).

Felix Desjy - 3pts win @ 7/4 PaddyPower

Limerick 14.35

Asterion Forlonge has previously beaten Pencilfulloflead and they meet again on equal terms here. The 2nd in AF's last race won next time with several others improving in their next races. I'll do two straight forecasts too (total 2pts) with said horses.

Asterion Folonge - 4pts win @ 11/10 PaddyPower
Asterion Folonge/Pencilfulloflead F/c 1.26pts @ 4/1 Paddy Power
Pencilfulloflead/Asterion Folonge F/c 0.74pts @ 15/2 Paddy Power

Wincanton 14.45

A dutch on the first two in the betting here (total 5pts). Shang Tang beat Southfield Harvest last time and was raised 5lb's. They look closely matched now on the weights and could go either way imo. Shang Tang does slighty edge it here for me though.

Shang Tang - 2.68pts @ 11/4 PaddyPower
Southfield Harvest - 2.32pts @ 10/3 PaddyPower

Kempton 15.00

P Nicholls looks to have farmed this race with the likes of Kauto Star (five times), See More Business (twice), Silviniaco Conti (twice) and recently Clan Des Obeaux (twice) for a total of 11 wins from a total of 32 runners sent. Clan Des Obeaux is the worthy favourite here for a third win, but could be vulnerable from the in form Cyrname (2nd last year). A win bet on Cyrname and a saver on Clan Des Obeaux.

Cyrname - 4pts win @ 11/4 PaddyPower
Clan Des Obeaux - 2pts win @ 2/1 PaddyPower

Total outlay 27pts

[Villa Chris]

1.28 Wetherby, Mercian Prince 9/2

1.34, Wincanton , Nearly Perfect 9/4(Nap) 

2.05 Wetherby , Snow Leopardess 4/1

3.35 Kempton , Who’s My Jockey 22/1 ew

Kempton Treble 9.78/1

1.50 Shan Blue/Epatante/Clan Des Obeaux

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

King george 

Cyrname  355

Clan des obeaux  355 

Lost in translation 352 

I tthink clan is the expected horse today but I think hes definately worth taking on as I definately think the penny has dropped with cyrname. ...was considered a non stayer but comeback run was classy and he did it in the bit suggesting hes now ready for this .....lost in translation hasn't had much luck recently but is a talented horse on a good day and is overdue a good run ....  gotta get involved  ..exciting race 

Cyrname 14.34 pts win 11/4 pp

Lostintranslation 5.66 ptswin 17/2 wh

33.7 pts profit any winner 

Edited December 26, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Tedthewolf]

Just a 3 small interest bets for me today keeping most of my powder for  the welsh national tomorow.

i have gone e/w in the  King George at Kempton not the sort of races i bet on but just feel WAITING PATIENTLY is a bit of a forgotten horse.  Went off 4/1 in this last year and was badly hampered and UR not done a lot since but  was a bit  better lto and well worth another try at todays trip. Jumping can be a concern at times but if that holds up i can see this horse getting involve  at the finish played last night e/w at 16/1 which imo is value.

I think  trainer Alan  King  could have a good day have played on 2 of his at Kempton 1,15 WILLIAM BONNIE 14/1 e/w  4places bog & 3.35 COUER DE LION  9/1 5p bog both look well handicaped to run well.

Good Luck All

[alancraik]

todays updated ratings selections

had a tweak with how I score the races

WETHERBY 13:28 Johnbb 9/4

WETHERBY 14:05 Windsor Avenue 7/1 e/w 3 Places

KEMPTON 14:25 Epatante 1/4

WETHERBY 14:40 Skipthescales 25/1 e/w 4 Places

KEMPTON 15:00 Santini 6/1 e/w 3 Places

KEMPTON 15:35 Ecco 8/1 e/w 5 Places

WINCANTON 13:34 Nearly Perfect win 85/40

WINCANTON 14:45 Shang Tang win 11/4

WINCANTON 15:19 Keep Moving 5/1 e/w

WOLVERHAMPTON 15:30 Misty Grey 11/4 win

WOLVERHAMPTON 16:05 On The Warpath EVS

[skylark2009]

A few extra bets for me using HRB trend races that will supplement two previous bets (so far).

 

Kempton 12.40

Severance - 1pt E/w @ 12/1 B365 (¼ odd, 12)

Wetherby 14.05

Canelo - 2pts win @ 9/2 B365

 

Total Outlay (31pts)

 

 

[calva decoy]

245 Winc - DUC DE BEAUCHENE 9/1 ew bet365

Has 2 wins & 3 placed efforts from 12 career starts & still lightly races for a 7 year old . Is a distance winner & drops back 2f in trip today after finishing 2nd on seasonal reappearance at Uttoxeter 34 days ago , if in mood should go close.

3.30 Wolv - TRANCHEE 9/2 betvictor

Back on the all weather where this previous CD winner goes well at . Has successful turf campaign winning 1 & being placed 5 out of last 6 runs including 3rd at Doncaster in class 2 over 7f on soft 49 days ago , trainer D.Loughnane is the leading seasonal trainer at the course with 19 winners could add to that here.

4.35 Wolv - SHIELDED 2/1 bet365

One of the least unexposed in the field having only 3rd career run today , was 6th on debut followed up by a 3rd over CD 18 days ago when running on beaten 1.5L , is up in class in this nursery but getting plenty of weight of top 3 rivals the donning of 1st time cheekpieces may very well see the winners enclosure being graced at around 4.40 this twilight eve.

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.20 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Kings Cave @ 10/1

Promising runs in points and novice hurdles before going chasing last time out. Was well backed in to 11/2 that day in a class 4 but couldn't remain competitive throughout. That said, this is a much easier contest and is still unexposed. Showed enough promise in novice hurdles to suggest he can win off this sort of mark and at 10/1 looks a healthy price.

12.53 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Raddle And Hum @ 14/1

Was second in this contest 12 months ago and runs off 1lb lower today. Has had plenty of excuses since when upped in trip and not staying and had a significant absence to overcome when last seen. Should strip fitter now, will enjoy the trip and conditions here so I think is capable of bouncing back at a price.

1.15 Kempton - 1pt e/w Falco Blitz @ 9/1

Jumping and fitness let him down on chasing debut when starting to jump out to the left from about half way through but showed he has an engine to still be there turning for home and should strip fitter now. Hopefully won't jump as errantly today and if so, looks fairly treated.

1.50 Kempton - 2pts win If The Cap Fits @ 4/1

All the talk seems to be about the novices here but they have to improve again to beat If The Cap Fits who is high class. Should have won last time out but wasn't suited by the small field and a mistake 2 out when outgunned by Pym but should find this more suitable and if jumping well, his class can see him through.

2.10 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Glockenspiel @ 25/1

I think it's too early to write this one off as its two runs in novice hurdles last year were really good in the context of this and although disappointing since, has had excuses, be it the trip, wind issues or returning after a break. Conditions ought to suit now and at the price I think is worth chancing.

3.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Lostintranslation @ 17/2

Obvious excuse at Haydock but wasn't given a hard time when never going on the ground and should be better today. Plenty of form would give him a huge chance in here including on its 3rd in the Gold Cup and with 3 places on offer looks a great each-way bet to me.

3.35 Kempton - 1pt e/w Whatsupwithyou @ 8/1

Couldn't believe when this one got beat at Cheltenham last time when sent for home much too soon and was collared up the run in. Is up the weights now but I think this mark is still within reach given a more conservative ride and at this less testing finish. Looks sure to go well.

[The Equaliser]

Good to have racing back again and an entertaining day in prospect.

I have gone for a £7.20 win bet on Third Time Lucki in the 12.40 at Kempton poss return of £18.00

Shan Blue looks to be the one to beat in the 1.50 at Kempton with almost all the pundits going for it.  The only fault I could find is that it is taking class 4 form to a class 1 race (I don't know why it is but jumps horses seem to be able to successfully jump grades like this as opposed to their flat race equivalents) .  Also, whether Kempton will play to his strengths I'm not sure.  This being so I have not had a bet on it.

I have been shafted by the Nicholls team recently when going for the favourite so I am not playing any of his in the King George at 3.00 Kempton.  Not sure why he has to have four representatives unless he wants to show off by filling the first three places.  Instead I will have a small wager of £2.30 at Betfair SP on Santini (I could have got 5/1 but I'm hoping that the first two in the betting will secure me a better price).  I guess the supplementary fee was a wee bit larger than my financial confidence in the horse.  Should be fun to watch in any event.

======================================================================================================

Third Time Lucki did the business for me. not sure about what would have happened if On To Victory hadn't fallen as I didn't watch the race.  Nine lengths and easing down looks good though.  Santini didn't do too well, all the pundits were saying three miles was a bit too sharp for him.  Maybe that was so.  Anyway a net profit of £8.50 brings my balance to £547.10 from a £500 bank.  Showing almost 9% ROI atm.  Though this may not last I seem to be doing a lot better now by ditching handicap races ?

   

Edited December 26, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Wildgarden]

14 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

115 kempton son of camas 8.6 Betfair exchange 3rd

220 Wolverhampton red verdon asking for 18.0 on exchanges or Betfair sp if not matched. 3rd just out places

Son of camas backed in from 10-1 to 6.8 on exchange now (good to soft now ? ). Red verdon matched my asking price drifting to 23 ;-s

Edited December 26, 2020 by Wildgarden

[kroni]

i'll have a go at these today @ bet365

Killer Clown @ 7/1 Kempton 13:15 won

If The Cap Fits @ 4/1 Kempton 13:50

Wandrin Star @ 10/1 Wetherby 14:05

Shang Tang @ 4/1 Wincanton 14:45

Rathhill @ 10/1 Kempton 15:35

Real Steel @ 18/1 Kempton 15:00

Silver Streak @ 13/2 Kempton 14:25 won

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by kroni

[roger2256]

Dec -13 

1 pt level stakes win only. 

Just taking one race today 

15.35 Kempton 

Coeur de Lion 8/1 Lost

Distingo 16/1 Lost

Who's My Jockey 25/1 Nr

-2

Dec -15 

Edited December 26, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[MCLARKE]

Excellent value with BOYLESPORTS free bet if 2nd to the SP favourite in the 2.25 at Kempton.

The favourite is 1/4, the 2nd favourite SILVER STREAK is 6/1, with the 3 others being 18/1, 25/1 and 50/1.

I calculate the chance of SILVER STREAK winning is 13% with a 77% chance that it will be 2nd to the favourite. The edge on the bet is a massive 23%.

[Villa Chris]

Didn’t expect that, but the tactics worked against a very flat Epatante . That’s the treble let down by a 2/11 shot ?  Will relax and enjoy the king George for the spectacle it should be. 

[yossa6133]

Backed Cyrname at 5/2, hopefully he blitzes them and proves last year's run all wrong.

[Villa Chris]

On 12/24/2020 at 7:30 AM, Villa Chris said:

3.35 Kempton 

providing it stays G/S, not much rain predicted for the first day at Kempton 

Who’s My Jockey 16.17 (doesn’t want it softer than G/S)

Push The Tempo 12.37

Switch Hitter 12.9

 Top three rated good prices at 20/1, 14/1, and 7/1. I’ll play ew on Who’s My Jockey providing it stays on the Good side of soft . He’s a CD winner and also ran well here two starts back to finish 5/10 in what was a close finished decent race .
 

This will be my only single bet at the meeting. Might play a double/treble with some others . 

Non runner so split my stakes between second and third rated as nowt between them 

[yossa6133]

Wow, very disappointing from Cyrname. Very clever from Bryony!

[Tedthewolf]

2 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Wow, very disappointing from Cyrname. Very clever from Bryony!

Yip  superb ride

[Villa Chris]

Never gave that partnership a second thought for winning this. Thing with Frodon and Byrony , they are lethal when they get into a rhythm from the front. Keeps improving the horse does when you think he’s pushed his limit.  Great run but thought most behind were disappointing.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Villa Chris

[Tedthewolf]

4 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Never gave that partnership a second thought for winning this. Thing with Frodon and Byrony , they are lethal when they get into a rhythm from the front. Keeps improving the horse does. Great run but thought most behind were disappointing.

Thought the second horse ran very well but yes the big guns were very disappointing indeed.

[skylark2009]

12 hours ago, skylark2009 said:

Running Total (-18.22pts)

Kempton 12.40

4th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, Third Time Lucki then started his hurdle career by winning his first two races. He left himself to much to do last time out, but did make up a lot of ground to be beaten by 3¾l's into 2nd place. Looks progressive and may make amends today. 

Third Time Lucki - 3pts win @ 11/8 B365  +4.13pts

Severance - 1pt E/w B365  -2pts

Kempton 13.50

Ran very well last time out and won comfortably, the 2nd (Darlac) won next time. 8/1 with B365 looks a huge price here, so an E/w bet. 

Enrilo - 1pt E/w @ 8/1 B365  -2pts

Wetherby 14.05

Last time out winner (the 6th placed won next time). Trainer is 6 wins from 13 runners at Wetherby with runners who had won last time out.

Snow Leopardess - 2pts win @ 9/2 B365  -2pts

Canelo - 2pts win @ 9/2 B365  +9pts

Leopardstown 14.15

Likes to lead in his races and shows battling qualities to get back to the front when behind. French breds have won this race in 5 of the last 6 runnings (Notebook (GER) won this last year).

Felix Desjy - 3pts win @ 7/4 PaddyPower  -3pts

Limerick 14.35

Asterion Forlonge has previously beaten Pencilfulloflead and they meet again on equal terms here. The 2nd in AF's last race won next time with several others improving in their next races. I'll do two straight forecasts too (total 2pts) with said horses.

Asterion Folonge - 4pts win @ 11/10 PaddyPower  -4pts
Asterion Folonge/Pencilfulloflead F/c 1.26pts @ 4/1 Paddy Power  -1.26pts
Pencilfulloflead/Asterion Folonge F/c 0.74pts @ 15/2 Paddy Power  -0.74pts

Wincanton 14.45

A dutch on the first two in the betting here (total 5pts). Shang Tang beat Southfield Harvest last time and was raised 5lb's. They look closely matched now on the weights and could go either way imo. Shang Tang does slighty edge it here for me though.

Shang Tang - 2.68pts @ 11/4 PaddyPower  -2.68pts
Southfield Harvest - 2.32pts @ 10/3 PaddyPower -2.32pts

Kempton 15.00

P Nicholls looks to have farmed this race with the likes of Kauto Star (five times), See More Business (twice), Silviniaco Conti (twice) and recently Clan Des Obeaux (twice) for a total of 11 wins from a total of 32 runners sent. Clan Des Obeaux is the worthy favourite here for a third win, but could be vulnerable from the in form Cyrname (2nd last year). A win bet on Cyrname and a saver on Clan Des Obeaux.

Cyrname - 4pts win @ 11/4 PaddyPower  -4pts
Clan Des Obeaux - 2pts win @ 2/1 PaddyPower  -2pts

Total outlay 31pts

In (+13.13pts)

Out (-31pts)

 

Running Total (-36.07pts)

[Villa Chris]

18 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Thought the second horse ran very well but yes the big guns were very disappointing indeed.

Waiting Patiently ran really well I thought. Funny old race, but it’s been a funny old day with results . Chepstow looks like it’s going to be cancelled, so see what tomorrow brings .

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Good to have racing back again and an entertaining day in prospect.

I have gone for a £7.20 win bet on Third Time Lucki in the 12.40 at Kempton poss return of £18.00

Shan Blue looks to be the one to beat in the 1.50 at Kempton with almost all the pundits going for it.  The only fault I could find is that it is taking class 4 form to a class 1 race (I don't know why it is but jumps horses seem to be able to successfully jump grades like this as opposed to their flat race equivalents) .  Also, whether Kempton will play to his strengths I'm not sure.  This being so I have not had a bet on it.

I have been shafted by the Nicholls team recently when going for the favourite so I am not playing any of his in the King George at 3.00 Kempton.  Not sure why he has to have four representatives unless he wants to show off by filling the first three places.  Instead I will have a small wager of £2.30 at Betfair SP on Santini (I could have got 5/1 but I'm hoping that the first two in the betting will secure me a better price).  I guess the supplementary fee was a wee bit larger than my financial confidence in the horse.  Should be fun to watch in any event.

 

   

Haha,  His little girl does it again, this time in the King George.  I told you not to trust Paul Nicholls.  I sometimes wish I could like my own posts ?

[alancraik]

WETHERBY 13:28 Johnbb 9/4 up fell

WETHERBY 14:05 Windsor Avenue 7/1 e/w 3 Places 2nd

KEMPTON 14:25 Epatante 1/4 2nd

WETHERBY 14:40 Skipthescales 25/1 e/w 4 Places up

KEMPTON 15:00 Santini 6/1 e/w 3 Places up

KEMPTON 15:35 Ecco 8/1 e/w 5 Places 2nd

WINCANTON 13:34 Nearly Perfect win 85/40 1 st

WINCANTON 14:45 Shang Tang win 11/4 no a clue what happened

WINCANTON 15:19 Keep Moving 5/1 e/w up

WOLVERHAMPTON 15:30 Misty Grey 11/4 win 1 st

WOLVERHAMPTON 16:05 On The Warpath EVS 1 st

a small loss today, need the placed horses to start winning