Racing Chat - Saturday 17th October

[Darran]

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 

Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.

 

Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.

 

Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.

 

Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.

 

Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.

 

Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.

 

Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.

 

Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.

 

Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.

 

Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.

 

Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.

 

Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.

 

Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.

 

Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365

 

Caulfield Cup

Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.

 

Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.

 

Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.

 

Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.

 

Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.

 

Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.

 

Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.

 

Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.

 

Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.

 

Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month. 

 

Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.

 

The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.

 

Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.

 

Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.

 

True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.

 

Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.

 

Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.

 

Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.

 

Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.

 

Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair

 

Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)

 

Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)

 

Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

[richard-westwood]

Caulfield cup 

I really like the look of dalasan ....paddy power are offering 18/1 4 places  and that looks a good bet to me 10pts ew

.....also I like master of wine ...interesting jockey and 8/1 ew 4 places ... looks fair value in an open race ...10pts ew 

Dalasan and master of wine both ew 

[richard-westwood]

Balmoral hcap ascot 

Raaeq   414

Bell rock  409 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest ...raaeq is a 3 yo who generally dont do well in this but hes so far ahead I cant ignore ...bell Rock will appreciate the drop in trip and shoukd run a big race 

Raaeq 10pt win 5/1 bet365 

Bell rock 5pts ew 14/1 skyb 6places 

[Tumbleweed King]

2-30 Ascot WONDERFUL TONIGHT

This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.

 

3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB

A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.

4-15 Ascot KEATS

Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Balmoral hcap ascot 

Raaeq   414

Bell rock  409 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest ...raaeq is a 3 yo who generally dont do well in this but hes so far ahead I cant ignore ...bell Rock will appreciate the drop in trip and shoukd run a big race 

Raaeq 10pt win 5/1 bet365 

Bell rock 5pts ew 14/1 skyb 6places 

The way Raaeq destroyed the field in his last race, surely there’s more to come. Bet if the day for me. 

[richard-westwood]

21 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

The way Raaeq destroyed the field in his last race, surely there’s more to come. Bet if the day for me. 

Yes I agree .....only negative is all running have been won by 4 or 5yo but occasionally in all races a 3yo will.pop up....gotta play him though...with any further improvement he could destroy these in theory 

[Darran]

I have 4 more bets across the cards at Caulfield and Randwick

Caulfield R7 (5.45am)

Hard not to be impressed with Alfa Oro of late and his record is now 6/8. I put him up last time despite the fact he was dropping down to 955m at The Valley last time and he bolted up in a BM84. He steps up into G2 company for the first time, but he looks more than up to it based on times and the visual performances. He is the improver against a more exposed field and is drawn in 2 so should be able to get a handy position.

Alfa Oro @ 11/10 with William Hill

Caulfield R10 (7.45am)

Pretty Brazen for me in this G2 that ends the card. She has been running well so fair this prep. She won a G2 at Flemington last month beating Arcadia Queen and then finished 3rd in a G1 over course and distance a week later with the winner being Behemoth. So the form of both races is strong. She got no luck at all last time at Flemington and she would have finished close with a clear run. She will need luck in running again, but it is a small field so it should be easier for her jockey here.

Pretty Brazen @ 18/5 with Bet365

Randwick R5 (4.50am)

The Koscuiszko is a great idea that I think would work well over here and I am going with the favourite It's Me who has looked a superstar in waiting. She has a blistering turn of foot and although she has never been 1200m in her 3 starts to date it doesn't look like it will be an issue for her. It isn't hard to think that further down the line she could be an Everest horse.

It's Me @ 5/4 with Bet365

Randwick R6 (5.25am)

This is basically the race for horses that didn't get a run in The Everest and Deprive looks the best of them. He landed this race last year and his return in the G2 Premiere when 3rd to Libertini is obviously a strong piece of form and it should put him spot on to land this prize for the 2nd year running.

Deprive @ 15/8 with Betfair

[John W]

Stratford: 

2.53 

Francky Du Berlais ran a nice race on return over hurdles and looks likely to be competitive. Templehills looks too short a price, for all he's back with his old trainer and on an attractive mark, the form has yet to suggest a win is close. The one that catches the eye at a nice price is SMUGGLERS BLUES back in trip to 2 and a half mile after failing to stay 3 miles last time. 

Smugglers Blues 16/1 betfair 

 

1.43: 

Fergal O'Brien is in great form at the moment and his PROJECT MARS can continue the good run here. Possible danger may be Crocodile Dundee but not sure his last win was that strong. While the booking of Richard Johnson looks interesting for A Book Of Intrigue, the horses hurdle form isn't great and will need an improvement.

Project Mars 3/1 bet 365

 

3.28 

GETARIVER can take advantage of running against mares again and put a very average return behind her. Pogo I Am isn't consistent enough for full trust and I'd be more wary of Green Or Black with that man Johnson aboard.

Getariver 5/1 william hill

[Villa Chris]

2.25 Leopardstown,Laughifuwant 2/1

4.31 Market Rasen , Red Risk 3/1

Two singles and the double at 10/1

Ascot 4.15 

regarding trends and ratings Tempus comes out on top

Tempus 7/1

Ascot Double 10/1, Stradivarius, Raeeq 

[ipswich45]

1545    Catterick

6 of last 10 winners have been Irish 
1. Court D'Oosay
3. Justanotherbottle
5. Copper Knight
6. Lord Riddiford

9 Stone average Weight
4. Musicka (9-1) - jockey takes 5 off
5. Copper Knight (8-12)

7/1 Average SP last 10 years
6. Lord Riddiford
7. Broken Spear

5 year olds won 4 out of last 10
6. Lord Riddiford
8. Milita

Last Year winner
1. Court D;Orsay (9-0)

Top Trainer last 3 years at Course
Tim Easterby  22 winners - 1 Court D'Orsay & 5 Copper Knight

Top Jockey last 3 years at Course
Jason Hart 21 winners - 6 Lord Riddiford

Conclusion
6. Lord Riddiford ticks most of the boxes based on last 10 year runnings of the race however dont rule out 1. Court D'Orsay last years winner lightly

Lord Riddiford for the win for me but would include Court D'Orsay into a forecast / tricast

--------------------------------------

1631 Market Rasen   

Last 6 winners Irish horses
2. Louis Vac Pouch
4. Mellow Ben
5. Beggars Wish
6. Ravenhill Road
9. Ashoka
10. Court Master

Average Weight 11st 4lbs
3. Fidux (11-6)
4. Mellow Ben (11-3)

Average Winning SP 8/1
6. Ravenhill Road
8. Luckofthedraw

8 year olds better last 10 years
2. Lousi Vac Pouch
9. Ashoka

Top Trainer Last 3 years 
Dan Skelton 14 winners - 9. Ashoka

Top Jockey Last 3 years
Harry Skelton  10 winners - 9 Ashoka

Conclusion
9 Ashoka E/W selection for the Skelton team who are red hot at Market Rasen and Ravenhill Road would be my win selection for this race 
---------------------------------------------------------------
1650 Catterick

1 Irish winner in last 6 runnings
2. Shawaamekh
3. Alnasherat
4. The Great Heir
10. Ey Up Its Mick
13. Dawn Breaking

Avereage Weight  9st 4lb / 9st 5lb
6. Donnelly's Rainbow
7. Erich Bloch
8. Captain Jameson
9. Parys Mountain

Average Winning SP 11/1
4. The Great Heir
6. Donnely's Rainbow
10. Ey Up Its Mick

Average Age 4 year old winners
3. Almasherat
4. The Great Heir
7. Erich Bloom
10. Ey Up Its Mick
11. Mogsy

Top Trainer last 3 years at Course
Tim Easterby  22 winners - 9 Parys Mountain

Top Jockey last 3 years at Course
Jason Hart 21 winners - 8 Captain Jameson

Conclusion
4 The Great Heir for me for the Kevin Ryan stable under Kevin Stott appears to be on a fair mark finished 3rd 30 days ago at Ayr 
 

[The Brigadier]

Ascot finish their 2020  flat season with the 10th Champions Day which will be run on testing soft ground with the likes of Stradivarius, Magical and Palace Pier looking to end their term with victories.

 

Hollie Doyle has had a sensational season breaking her own yearly winner total earlier in the week with 117 winners so far. She has a big chance of securing her first Group 1 success with DAME MALLIOT (2.30 Ascot). Hollie won on her at Newmarket in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes back in July and was a highly credible 3^rd in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day. Behind her that day were rivals Wonderful Tonight, Laburnam and Even So and she can confirm the form. It will be an emotional win not only for Hollie but as trainer Ed Vaughan is leaving the training ranks for financial reasons and ironically the first prize here of just short of £200k would be his biggest win.

 

Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in the Balmoral handicap (4.15) having won it twice and had two placed in the eight runners he’s saddled in the prestigious handicap’s 6 year history so his two runners are of significance this year. The one I’m most interested in is ORBAAN who will be ridden by stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and is only 3lb higher than his York win in July. An ex Andre Fabre inmate he’ll have no problem with the soft ground and looks the best value in a race full of dangers headed by the pair of improving 3 year olds Raaeq and Tempus who head the market. Last year’s winner O’Meara’s Escobar was drawn 20 (although they did race on the inside track then) so I’m hopeful that Orbaan’s stall number 20 will be ideal.

 

The National Hunt season is becoming more interesting by the day and the best bet over the sticks is Nigel Twiston Davies’ TEMPLEHILLS (2.53 Stratford) who looks thrown in off of only 120 (113 if taking the more than capable Jack Savage’s claim into account). He was a smart chaser for Twiston Davies two seasons back winning at Warwick off of 137 and at one stage being as highly rated as 144. Having lost his form he was acquired by  Jonjo O’Neil and showed little for him in four runs the following season before re-joining his former trainer off of a very winnable mark. He’s won after a break and should be ready to fire today. This doesn’t look the strongest of handicap chases with Frankly Du Berlais winning over hurdles last time and the biggest threat possibly coming from Keiran Burke’s Everlanes who was progressive last season and his trainer has been amongst the winners recently

[Darran]

I wrote the below about Brave Jaq when he was meant to run at Ludlow recently but was a non-runner

I think Brave Jaq is well handicapped in this competitive looking race. He hasn't been seen since finishing a well beaten 2nd to Risk A Fine in a hunter chase last March, but that horse is now rated in the 140's after a superb hunter chase season. Lockdown probably stopped us seeing both horses so far this year, but he has a mark of 100 here going back over hurdles. He did show a bit of ability to start with in hurdles for Paul Nicholls so that gives me confidence he can handle them and I think he is a better horse now he has learnt to settle better. When he first went hunter chasing he was a bit of a tearaway and almost uncontrollable, but last year he was able to finally win a hunter chase and showed over good form. My main concern is he will need this as he hasn't always been in peak shape 1st up and obviously he has had a long break, so I can't be as confident as I would like to be.

He is set to run at Stratford this afternoon in the 1.43 and I actually like him a bit more than I did at Ludlow. He looks set to be the only front runner in the race and with Stratford a front runners track that is going to be a big advantage. Obviously the concern remains about how he will go 1st up, but it doesn't look as strong a race as the Ludlow one and at 20/1 I am more than happy to play.

Brave Jaq @ 20/1 with Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.20 Ascot - 1pt e/w Fujaira Prince @ 11/1 Hills

Think the Ebor winner has sound each-way claims after a solid 2nd in the Irish St Leger to Search for A Song. That one is half the price of my selection but its best form has come on a sound surface whereas Fujaira Prince is at home on deep ground and comes from a family of soft ground horses. Ought to stay the extra couple of furlongs and has the class to make the frame.

1.55 Ascot - 1pt win Starman @ 9/1 and 1pt e/w The Tin Man @ 40/1 Bet365

Couple against the field here - can't knock what Starman has achieved so far, putting some good horses in their place in three runs. Comfortably saw off the thriving Dakota Gold when last seen which puts him right into the picture here. Shapes as if a stronger gallop would suit him and soft ground shouldn't inconvenience on pedigree being by Dutch Art. 

The Tin Man is a stalwart in these contests and is another who wants a fast pace on soft ground. Wasn't best positioned at Haydock and similarly behind Dakota Gold last time when giving far too much rope to that one. Could go well at a price with conditions suiting.

2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Dame Malliot @ 9/2 Bet365

I think this one has the best form in the book and the return to soft ground will really suit. Ran a cracker when 3rd in Germany a couple of starts back, giving generously but just touched off. Had Barney Roy behind that day which is very good form and similarly ran well on good ground behind Tarnawa in France last time. Had Wonderful Tonight in behind who reopposes here but I fancy Dame Malliot to hold that form and those two could well fight out the finish.

3.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Pyledriver @ 18/1 PP

This is a belting race and I again think that Pyledriver is being overlooked. He's probably best at 1m4f but is very versatile and not short on speed. The Leger trip perhaps slightly stretched him last time but still ran a blinder and with a decent gallop on here, can go close. Soft ground no problem, has the speed and the stamina to be effective here and has course form from earlier in the year. Plenty of dangers but receiving the 3yo allowance, looks overpriced.

3.45 Catterick - 1pt win Copper Knight @ 7/1 Bet365

Dropping down the weights and has run with promise in decent races the last twice - showing up for a very long way at Haydock two starts back and running okay at York since. Down to a mark of 90 and this track promises to suit. Speedy horses prosper around here and if Copper Knight gets into a rhythm and uses its momentum down the straight can take some pegging back. 

[Villa Chris]

Cracking days racing at ascot. Always enjoy champions day as a spectacle. 

[Arkle64]

        For he’s a jolly good Fellowes

 

Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored by Qipco)       4.15 Ascot 1m

A Twenty-three runner Handicap over Ascot’s straight mile is usually a punters nightmare but given some of the excellent place terms on offer you should take up the challenge.

     Bedford House trainer Charlie Fellowes has a superb record in handicaps at Ascot this season. He is 4 from 10 including a double at 33/1 and 20/1 at the Royal meeting in June. One of many lessons he learned from his time as an Assistant with James Fanshawe before venturing out in his own was to be patient with horses. A prime example of that is his one-time Derby hope King Ottokar. The son of Motivator showed last time at Doncaster that he is ready to win soon. He was beaten into fifth that day after being hampered by the winner Matthew Flinders when ready to make his run. His chance today has been enhanced by being dropped 2Ib to a mark of 100 by the handicapper. He is a holdup horse greatly favoured by Ascot’s very testing straight mile. He has a high draw 22 of the 23 runners which should enable him to finish strongly up the stand sides rail.

    There are numerous dangers, Raising Sand trained by Jamie Osborne and to be ridden by daughter Saffie is certainly one. The gelding finished eighth in the Hunt Cup winning the race on the far side of the course. He has his ground today a high draw and Saffie Osborne is excellent value for her 7Ib claim.

Bell Rock is another with a real chance today third in the Cambridgeshire behind Majestic Dawn he runs off the same weight today and has the addition of first time cheekpieces today which should aid his concentration.

David O’Meara has won two of the last three running’s of this race and among his entries is Orbann a hold up specialist who needs a strongly run race which he will surely get today. He was beaten 3 lengths in fourth to Tempus over course and distance on his last run. With conditions in favour today he should not be discounted.

Favourite Raaeq won easily over Ascots 7 furlongs last time accounting for Breanski, he is penalized 6Ib for that win but may have been let in lightly. He could easily be a group horse in the making.

To summarize it is King Ottokar for me, but I will be having a small EW saver on Raising Sand for the father and daughter combination of Jamie and Saffie Osborne

Tip King Ottokar  13/2  six places 1/5 odds Skybet     

                                 7/1 five places 1/5 odds Unibet and Bet Victor

       

[The Equaliser]

21 hours ago, Tumbleweed King said:

2-30 Ascot WONDERFUL TONIGHT

This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.

 

3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB

A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.

4-15 Ascot KEATS

Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.

Welcome to punters lounge, may I wish you much success with your tipping

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, Simmoform said:

Ascot finish their 2020  flat season with the 10th Champions Day which will be run on testing soft ground with the likes of Stradivarius, Magical and Palace Pier looking to end their term with victories.

 

Hollie Doyle has had a sensational season breaking her own yearly winner total earlier in the week with 117 winners so far. She has a big chance of securing her first Group 1 success with DAME MALLIOT (2.30 Ascot). Hollie won on her at Newmarket in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes back in July and was a highly credible 3^rd in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day. Behind her that day were rivals Wonderful Tonight, Laburnam and Even So and she can confirm the form. It will be an emotional win not only for Hollie but as trainer Ed Vaughan is leaving the training ranks for financial reasons and ironically the first prize here of just short of £200k would be his biggest win.

 

Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in the Balmoral handicap (4.15) having won it twice and had two placed in the eight runners he’s saddled in the prestigious handicap’s 6 year history so his two runners are of significance this year. The one I’m most interested in is ORBAAN who will be ridden by stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and is only 3lb higher than his York win in July. An ex Andre Fabre inmate he’ll have no problem with the soft ground and looks the best value in a race full of dangers headed by the pair of improving 3 year olds Raaeq and Tempus who head the market. Last year’s winner O’Meara’s Escobar was drawn 20 (although they did race on the inside track then) so I’m hopeful that Orbaan’s stall number 20 will be ideal.

 

The National Hunt season is becoming more interesting by the day and the best bet over the sticks is Nigel Twiston Davies’ TEMPLEHILLS (2.53 Stratford) who looks thrown in off of only 120 (113 if taking the more than capable Jack Savage’s claim into account). He was a smart chaser for Twiston Davies two seasons back winning at Warwick off of 137 and at one stage being as highly rated as 144. Having lost his form he was acquired by  Jonjo O’Neil and showed little for him in four runs the following season before re-joining his former trainer off of a very winnable mark. He’s won after a break and should be ready to fire today. This doesn’t look the strongest of handicap chases with Frankly Du Berlais winning over hurdles last time and the biggest threat possibly coming from Keiran Burke’s Everlanes who was progressive last season and his trainer has been amongst the winners recently

Welcome to Punters lounge, we seem to be getting lots of new talent recently

[Arkle64]

 

                                                   Is Palace Peerless?

 

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco)             3.05 Ascot 1m Round

 

A fabulous days racing at Ascot today including 4 Group 1 races. The short priced favourite for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is the John Gosden trained Palace Pier. The three-year-old son of Kingman has won twice this year at Group 1 level winning the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot beating Pinatubo and last time out the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. He will not be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft ground and this burgeoning equine superstar will take all the beating.

However, in this race there is the opportunity to have an EW bet which is unlikely to have any downside. The answer to this is the French five-year-old gelding The Revenant. He was second in the race last year behind the Richard Hannon trained King of Change beaten a length and a quarter and has been trained with this race in mind. He reappeared at Longchamp at the beginning of October and won the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, the same prep race he won in 2019. His trainer stated after the race that he was only 80% fit and would be ready at Ascot. He is to be ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot probably the best jockey to come from France since Yves Saint-Martin. I cannot see this horse not being in the first three and believe he has every chance of beating Palace Pier.

Of the others the Aidan O’Brien trained Circus Maximus the winner of the Queen Anne in June but well beaten by Palace Pier in Prix Jacques le Marois can take third place but should not beat the principals.

Tip EW The Revenant 11/2       ¼ odds 1.2.3 Paddy Power

 

Price correct at 8.40am subject to fluctuation

[Arkle64]

 

                                Sweet Muscika

 

William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap                          Catterick Bridge 3.45 5 furlongs

 

The feature event at Catterick today is the Class 2 William Hill Catterick Dash won last year by Count D’Orsay. Tim Easterby’s 4 y/o gelding has a mark 99 to overcome this year, 8Ib more than he carried in 2019.He also has a poor draw being drawn on the outside in stall 10 of 10. Five furlong races at Catterick are run over a slightly left-handed dog leg which gives a small advantage to those drawn low which is more pronounced the softer the ground. Count D’Orsay is normally a slow starter with a high draw and for that reason the probable favourite is passed over.

My preference is for the David O’Meara trained Muscika who will be ridden by the 5Ib claiming apprentice Harry Russell. Harry is in superb form this month having ridden 5 winners from his 25 rides, a sparkling 20% strike rate. Muscika won last time out at York over 5 furlongs under another apprentice Angus Villiers, he is drawn in stall 5 and should be ideally placed to pick the probable front runners Militia and Justanotherbottle.

Lord Riddiford 4^th behind Muscika at York has been dropped a 1Ib by the handicapper and must have a chance at the revised weights and I would not discount Broken Spear though he does seem to be better at 6 furlongs rather than today’s minimum trip.

 

Tip Muscika 6/1 Bet 365

 

Prices correct at time of submission

[MCLARKE]

High class action at Ascot today with 4 Group 1 races.

When I rate a race I base it on 6 years of statistics for that particular class of race over the distance. This normally gives a large sample of data to use. I then look at the 5 factors that are most influential in that type of race and apply them to each horse.

I use the AE ratio as the rating. This is the actual winners to expected winners ratio based on the odds. AE is better than ROI, which can be distorted by 1 or 2 high odds winners.

Over the last 6 years there have been 568 class 1 races over 10 furlongs or more so this gives a large sample to start with. 

The key factors are :

1. Days since last run > 30. AE = 1.11. These races usually take a lot out of a horse so more time is often needed for them to recover.

2. Forecast odds < 13/8. AE = 1.24. Short priced favourites have a good record.

3. Finished in top 3 last time out AE = 1.06. Quality is paramount in these types of races.

4. Top or joint top weight. AE = 1.07. This will include those horses that have a penalty due to having won a group race, again highlighting quality.

5. Age > 4. AE = 1.08. Horses tend to reach their peak at 5 and they need to be at their peak for these types of races.

For the 1.20 Ascot the ratings are :-

STRADIVARIUS 1.07 - short price favourite but ran only 13 days ago. Odds 5/4.

FUJAIRA PRINCE 1.06 - positive on all factors apart from forecast odds. Odds 12/1.

MORANDO 1.06 - again positive on all factors apart from forecast odds. Odds 14/1.

The same analysis can be applied to the 2.30 and 3.40 races, which are both long distance races.

2.30 DAME MALLIOT 1.04 (5/1), CABALETTA 1.04 (40/1), EVEN SO 1.04 (6/1). 4 places available so may be worth betting each way.

3.40 LORD NORTH 1.034 (5/1), MAGICAL 1.033 (7/4).

I will be back later with analysis of a more run of the mill handicap race.

 

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

2.30 Asc Wonderful Tonight (WB) £1 win at 5/1
3.28 Str Pogo I Am (BC5) £2 win at 11/4
4.03 Str Blue N Yellow £1 win at 4/1
One £1  Trixie = £4 v poss return of £183.75

Other bets:

1.20 Asc Search For A Song £1 win at 6/1

1.55 Asc Oxted £1.20 win at 15/2
1.55 Asc Dream Of Dreams 70p win at 3/1

2.30 Asc Mehdaayih £1 win at 7/1

3.40 Asc Mishriff £1 win at 5/1

4.15 Asc Alternative Fact 55p win at 10/1
4.15 Asc Blue Mist 45p win at 25/1

1.13 Stra Felton Bellevue 45p win at 20/1

2.15 Str Test Valley 30p win at 33/1

4.40 Str Baratineu £1.20 win at 9/2
4.40 Str Catlow 30p win at 9/2 (fancied it at 10's but hacked into too much for my liking so just an ins bet)

= £4 Multiples

= £9.15 singles

= Total £13.15 

Should be fun to watch.  Good luck to everyone today.  Despite backing against Stradivarious I would love to see it win impressively today ?

=============================================================================================

Just one winner today and that was down to William Buick.  I noticed that the jockeys with the greatest strike rates seemed to have money pouring on their horses; not that they won but I guess that they were expected to run very well if not win.

Anyway, multiples - £4 therefore the balance c.fwd is now £630.69 (£800 Bank)

Singles was - £9.15 outlay and £6 return so a loss of £3.15.  My balance is now £172.17 (Bank £400)

Three jumps meetings tomorrow in the UK so let's see how our woulb be racing guru's handle that?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[mickyftm32]

C’Est Le Bonheur 1.13 Stratford

in what looks a decent maiden hurdle here, the selection looks to have a lot in its favour against the powerful stables of Nichols and Murphy. Had won a bumper at Sedgefield and I like horses that win there as it’s a tricky track and can be argue afterwards at Perth and Kelso had excuses after not jumping well at all at the Scottish venue and then woefully short of room going to two out at Kelso which ultimately scuppered any chance, so on this better galloping track it should be more than up to winning this with conditions very much in its favour.

Sheer Liss 1.35 Ballinrobe

Caught the eye when running second in a very good bumper at Gowran a couple of weeks ago and before that had won a race on similar ground to today at Down Royal and seems to be crying out for this extra yardage today as has done well in Irish Points previously, so looks ready to take on this challenge and stable couldn’t be in better form, so a very good chance against here today

Beechwood Jude 4.20 Catterick

Ground is very tacky here today and this race will take some getting for a few of these, but the selection is proven with these conditions and made all here over same trip and in a class 4 again, so a lot of plus points. Was tried over further the last twice and ran with credit but just ran out of steam late on, so expect a bold show and will be wanting to jump out and try and make all again

 

[MCLARKE]

Analysis of 4.50 at Catterick, a class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs. There have been 539 handicap races over this distance in the past 6 years. Key factors are :-

Days since last run < 18. AE = 1.07.

Draw > 5. AE = 1.08.

Finished outside top 5 last time. AE = 1.11.

Claiming jockey. AE = 1.14.

Age > 3. AE = 1.04.

Selections 

PRAXEOLOGY 1.04 - drawn 9, 10th last time and with a claiming jockey but ran 18 days ago (borderline) and a 3YO (although 3 year olds probably perform better later in the season). 50/1 available with BET365.

MOGSY 1.03 (25/1).

PARYS MOUNTAIN 1.03 (33/1, 4 places available with Sky).

All outsiders but 7 furlongs is a unique distance. SP favourites have an AE of 0.93 in these races.

[MCLARKE]

Balmoral handicap 4.15 Ascot. A class 2 handicap over 1 mile. There have been 280 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-

Draw < 8. AE = 1.11.

Forecast odds > 5/1. AE = 1.06.

Not 1st last time. AE = 1.04.

Won over course and distance. AE = 1.31.

Weight > 8st 11lbs. AE = 1.04.

Selections

TEMPUS 1.11, drawn 6, forecast odds 7/1, 6th last time, won over course and distance last month and weight 9st 2lbs. Passes all the criteria. Available at 15/2 with Paddy Power (5 places). Bet of the day.

NJORD 1.04 (11/1, 5 places).

SYMBOLIZE 1.04 (66/1, 5 places).

GREENSIDE 1.04 (40/1, 6 places).

[MCLARKE]

Wolverhampton 5.30, a class 6 handicap over 9 furlongs. There have been 164 such races at Wolverhampton in the last 6 years. Key factors are :-

Forecast odds < 5/1. AE = 1.43.

Weight > 9st 2lbs. AE = 1.17.

In 1st 4 last time. AE = 1.19.

Top 4 in the weights. AE = 1.21.

Days since last run < 10. AE = 1.37.

Selections

STRONG STEPS 1.27, forecast odds 4/1, weight 9st 9lbs, 3rd last time, 3rd in the weights and last run 9 days ago. Ticks all the boxes. 13/2 with BET365.

WHATWOULDYOUKNOW 1.18 (11/4).

COME ON LINDA 1.03 (9/2).

The same conditions also apply to the 4.55 race. Selection are :-

ROGUE TIDE 1.18 (9/2).

LAURENTIA 1.18 (9/2).

MONAAHDIL 1.08 (5/1).

[kroni]

Porto Pollo @ 14/1 e-w Bet365 - Auteuil 16:00

L'autonomie looks short enough 1/2 fav here, must have some engine as tends to jump right badly at times and takes the longest route to win his last 8 races, there is lots of front runners today with the british runners which could ruin his chances with the step up in distance, im hoping this will set up for PORTO POLLO who looks as the though will improve for the extra distance today.

[LeMale]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Welcome to Punters lounge, we seem to be getting lots of new talent recently

Job applicants??? Mind you, fantastic write-up's! What i can't bloody believe is, this has got to be the first time in 4-5 months that i didn't use my morning looking on here!!! Typical!!! 

[Tedthewolf]

Balmoral cup

My 2  e/w 6 places skybet ORBAAN  12/1 & KYNREN 28/1

[Darran]

3 hours ago, LeMale said:

Job applicants??? Mind you, fantastic write-up's! What i can't bloody believe is, this has got to be the first time in 4-5 months that i didn't use my morning looking on here!!! Typical!!! 

Someone worked it out! 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, LeMale said:

Job applicants??? Mind you, fantastic write-up's! What i can't bloody believe is, this has got to be the first time in 4-5 months that i didn't use my morning looking on here!!! Typical!!! 

Well good luck to all of them; it will be nice if we get some highlighted winners too ?