Tennis Tips - May 13 - May 19

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Belinda Bencic to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 1.58 with Unibet

It's hard to see Belinda in a losing spot here to be honest. She played great in Madrid and could very well continue that way here.

Danielle Collins to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 2.35 with Unibet

Caro hasn't played since Charleston in early April and I don't see here coming to Rome in a great spot especially not when facing such an uprising player like Danielle. Caro won their only meeting so far in Roland Garros 2018 but I think Danielle has a good chance for a revenge this time.

[CzechPunter]

Sanjar Fayziev to beat Antoine Escoffier at 1.50 with BetVictor

Ilya Marchenko to beat Renzo Olivo at 2.00 with Bet365

Nick Kyrgios (+1.5 sets) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.77 with Pinnacle

I watched some of the Challenger matches last week and I like both Fayziev and Marchenko in their respective matches next week. Escoffier isn't a good player no matter how you look at it, while Fayziev is a decent prospect and he was unlucky to run into the in-form Popko last time out. Marchenko is another player that I liked last week and he has the right type of strength to out-hit Olivo, who isn't even used to playing in the Far East. Should be worth a play at evens. Finally, while I'm not too thrilled to be backing Kyrgios on clay, I think that this might be a good spot for him. Medvedev cooling down after some successes and not impressing in Rome last year, while Kyrgios now hopefully a bit hungrier and in a place that treated him well in 2016. Just a regular bet stake-wise though.

[four-leaf]

Richard Gasquet to beat Jeremy Chardy at 2.25 with Unibet

RIchard owns a 5-1 record in this matchup and Jeremy has had enourmous problems lately turning in good performances. His form isn't good. He was decent in Madrid but that clay surface is faster and more suitable for him and Richard did pretty mutch ok in Madrid by getting his first win of the season. I saw that match and he was very solid, did few mistakes and Jeremy is mostly an error machine and that could cost him again this time.

[vvararu]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Richard Gasquet to beat Jeremy Chardy at 2.25 with Unibet

RIchard owns a 5-1 record in this matchup and Jeremy has had enourmous problems lately turning in good performances. His form isn't good. He was decent in Madrid but that clay surface is faster and more suitable for him and Richard did pretty mutch ok in Madrid by getting his first win of the season. I saw that match and he was very solid, did few mistakes and Jeremy is mostly an error machine and that could cost him again this time.

Did he look recovered enough? I just watched his game agains Davidovich Fokina and he (Gasquet) played very well but his face revealed pain sometimes...

[four-leaf]

Ilya Marchenko to beat Renzo Olivo at 2.10 with betfair

Agree with @CzechPunter here that Ilya could be worth a try and betfair has a little bit higher odds so let's go Ilya.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, vvararu said:

Did he look recovered enough? I just watched his game agains Davidovich Fokina and he (Gasquet) played very well but his face revealed pain sometimes...

Well he's playing better tennis than Jeremy and I don't know if I saw any pain revealed in Richards face sometimes. He should anyway have enough to beat Jeremy. Richard dealed with Alejandro D-Fokina better than Jeremy could in Estoril so I think the chances that Richard wins this is bigger than 2.25 at least.

[four-leaf]

Venus Williams to beat Elise Mertens at 2.80 with bethard

I'm gonna have a look at Venus tomorrow and see what form she's in. Elise isn't in great form having only won 2 matches on clay so far and losing three. She lost in straight sets in the quarterfinal of Rabat to the tournament winner Maria Sakkari. All three of Elises losses on clay have been tight affairs so it seems like she doesn't have the confidence currently to win a tight match. And this match could be tight.

[four-leaf]

JC Aragone to beat Sandro Ehrat at 4.25 with betfair

JC isn't a clayspecialist and neither is Sandro so I see this match as totally open or even that JC acctually should be the fav so why we get 4.25 is beyond my knowledge.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, I think that I'm done with those Far East Challengers for some time, it's like different players are playing this week, back to the main tour to end the streak!

Cameron Norrie to beat John Millman at 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Norrie seems to be a bit like Fritz or Opelka in terms of reputation - everyone thinks that those players can't play on clay and yet they are delivering many good results. Norrie has already played two matches in Rome, beating the dangerous Jarry in the process, while Millman hasn't done anything of note for quite some time now. No reason to have Norrie as the underdog here, I think that Jarry is better than Millman on clay and Norrie was able to deal with him.

[four-leaf]

Amanda Anisimova/Elisabetta Cocciaretto under 17.5 games at 2.02 with Unibet

Low line I know but Amanda is prone to running over lower ranked opponents and Elisabetta is an 18 year old wild card, never been ranked higher rank 701 this season and currently registers at 779. I see no reason why Amanda wouldn't have it her way here and that's the quick way.

[four-leaf]

Mats Moraing to beat Rudolf Molleker at 3.40 with Unibet

Saw Rudolf in Aix en Provance and he didn't look good. Lost 6-2 6-2 to Pablo Cuevas. It easily could have been tighter if Rudolf had not hit the ball long time after time and into the net 25% of his shots. It wasn't Pablo making Rudolf bad, it was Rudolf playing bad and if he continues that way in Heilbronn where he is the defending champion he is going to lose to Mats. And he isn't going to maintain his current ranking 152.

[lelit]

@Four-leaf

It does not have any effect on your Moraing pick that he lost the last 7 matches and in the last one he reitired?

[four-leaf]

43 minutes ago, lelit said:

@Four-leaf

It does not have any effect on your Moraing pick that he lost the last 7 matches and in the last one he reitired?

Rudolfs poor form when seeing him last week had more effect. Mats can do better than lose 8 straight matches.

[CzechPunter]

Norrie breaks the losing streak, what a relief .

[four-leaf]

Couldn't be more happier to see Caro Wozniacki retire after first set. D.R Collins through to second round and the bet stands with one set completed. The americans saves my week so far. Otherwise it's been all a load of crap all around with the challengers and ATP picks.

[four-leaf]

Tennys Sandgren to beat Rudolf Molleker at 2.15 with Unibet

Rudolf won Heilbronn last season, that ofcourse might be worth taking into account, especially for such a young player with home advantage. But I think that to some part bookies are forgetting the most important thing.

I'm thinking about the playing quality of Rudolf and Tennys. Tennys are ranked among the hundred best in the world and won an ATP title in Auckland in January. It's another level if we compare to Rudolf being ranked around 150 right now. Rudolf will drop to around rank 200 if he loses today. 

Clay, plays a big part. Rudolf is a specialist on the surface, for now at least. While Tennys are better on hardcourt. But he has pretty good numbers on the clay. He surely isn't as weak on the surface as many other americans are. Rudolf hasn't been great lately, he wasn't great yesterday either. He just met an incredibly out of form opponent but still got broken left and right.

I think with Rudolfs current playing quality he's going to get broken a few times again here, he's not serving great, not striking the ball well enough. It's just likely that Rudolfs form is not going to be enough to win today as it was yesterday. Tennys can at least hold serve better than Mats Moraing now so I see a heep of troubles coming Rudolfs way.

[increaseval]

Any thoughts on tomorrow match in Rome playing Krygios vs Ruud? I was surprised to see Krygios quoted 1.72 especially after solid performance today vs Medvedev. Ruud has a solid clay season so far but it was all about winning players ranked over 50.

[four-leaf]

36 minutes ago, increaseval said:

Any thoughts on tomorrow match in Rome playing Krygios vs Ruud? I was surprised to see Krygios quoted 1.72 especially after solid performance today vs Medvedev. Ruud has a solid clay season so far but it was all about winning players ranked over 50.

Well after reading this I think it's worth putting a stake on Nick tomorrow because @increaseval I think you're on to something here so good thinking.

[CzechPunter]

Nick Kyrgios to beat Casper Ruud at 1.91 with William Hill

Not thrilled to be backing Kyrgios again, but he delivered for me today and the opening odds at William Hill are definitely worth taking. Also thinking about backing Chardy in some form, but not sure yet.

 

[four-leaf]

Vika Azarenka to beat (-1.5 sets) Elina Svitolina at 2.75 with betfair

I think Vika is in good spot now. She's playing better tennis than before and seems to be getting into her better shoes again. When Vika is looking like she's finding some form after many months without even a final she could be worth backing to win this in straight sets. Elina is the defending champ in Rome but when looking at her results this season it doesn't inspire confidence. She's a player with many retirements nowadays but in one match or two it's worth backing her to win. Vika ran over Shuai Zhang 6/2 6/1 so it doesn't look like she's gonna retire in this match and she should be pumped up for a meeting against a top 10 player.

Meanwhile Elinas form on clay this season is one loss in straight sets to Pauline Parmentier last week in Madrid. I think there could be some chance that Elina isn't in her best form in Rome this year. She's won it two straight times but a third in a row I don't think is going to happen so I'll start by going against her in this match.

[increaseval]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nick Kyrgios to beat Casper Ruud at 1.91 with William Hill

Not thrilled to be backing Kyrgios again, but he delivered for me today and the opening odds at William Hill are definitely worth taking. Also thinking about backing Chardy in some form, but not sure yet.

 

Bet365 offers only 1.72 on Nick and I still find this as value.

[four-leaf]

12 hours ago, eros said:

Not the best odds but according to conditions and in front of home crowd I think Kohli won't have a chance.

Marco Cecchinato @ 1.645 Pinnacle

7/10 

He should have a chance. Not impossible that Philipp takes a set.

[four-leaf]

Amanda Anisimova/Kiki Bertens under 19.5 games at 1.91 with betfair

Amanda played a terrible game last time when beating wild card Elisabetta Cocciaretto ranked 700+ and that's just the game she isn't supposed to play. It was on a 150 rank level. She struggled to hold serve almost every game she played and got broken lots of times. Kiki should be in for a short match here which is probably just what she needs after winning Madrid.

[four-leaf]

Alexander Bublik to beat Jozef Kovalik at 2.40 with betfair

I think Alex should be treated with a little bit more respect than to give him 2.40 to beat Jozef in Heilbronn. Alex met Jozef in Heilbronn 2017 and won in straight sets and Jozefs results this season hasn't impressed me at all. He's been injured and hasn't played well enough to get more than 3 wins. It was ages ago since he won a challenger title and Alex has although on hardcourt been racking up challenger titles since November when he won the Bratislava challenger. Alex is a big talent and should be treated with respect so giving him 2.40 makes no sense even if it is on clay this match is to be played.

[four-leaf]

13/14 breakpoints saved by Alex and he's looking horrible with a ton a of unforced. Only the serving is holding him up. Finally when he lost his serve there is no coming back for him as he's only had one breakchance in the hole match. 

[Gully_22]

Typical... Kovalik beats Bublik but he cant beat Napolitano.... ah tennis is a funny old sport!

[Blackroses]

I'm going to say that Ruud makes all things in the world right and beats Nick. Nick will get frustrated at Ruud's ability to keep grinding and I'm banking on him having one of his Nick meltdowns. Obviously Nick on serve is top 10, arguably top 5. Ruud will have to break but I'm hoping he takes advantage of the one or two looks he'll get in the first set. Hence setting the Nick meltdown and tirade.

[Gully_22]

The problem with Ruud is he rarley beats anyone hes not suppose to. Looking at his results this season the only stand out one I see is demolishing Paire 6-1 6-1. Im guessing Paire had a meltdown in that match like you are hoping Kyrgios will. If Nick is motivated willing to fight, I can't see Ruud with much chance.

[four-leaf]

Simona Halep/Marketa Vondrousova over 20.5 at 2.02 with unibet

I can't see Simona taking this easily, it should be a battle with some big hitting from Marketa to even the score.