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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - May 13 - May 19

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Stefanos Tsitsipas/Rafa Nadal total games first set over 10.5 at 3.75 with betfair

Stefanos looks better this week than last and has had some suitable rest with rain delays, short matches and a walkover. I don't think we will see any easier match for Rafa this time. Nando Verdasco fell apart and it's not a big surprise but Stefanos shouldn't fall apart. I see this match as one that should be tight but the only value I can find on betfair is over 10.5 games in first set. How likely is that to happen? It's just as likely as the odds suggest I'd say but where there's value I want in and since bet365 is 3.50 on the same bet I think there is value on betfair.

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Marc Andrea Huesler to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 7.73 with pinnacle

I'm not allowed to bet on this myself since pinnacle has blocked swedish customers from betting with them since January 1 this year because of the new swedish bettinglaw. Anyway Marc is coming into this in a pretty good spot. He's at his best on clay and has recently won his first challenger title but it was on hard but doesn't matter here. While I think Marc comes in a good spot I think Grigor comes into this in a pretty bad spot and he literally sucks nowadays so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.

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Since @DrO so kindly asked - I don't think that there's any value in the match of the day. Nadal is finally in a clay finals, but Djokovic has been the better player by far so far in the clay court season and I'm not getting the right vibes from Nadal right now. He's clearly not in a great shape fitness-wise and Djokovic is going to push him much more than any of the other guys so far. Had the Serb not played two long back-to-back matches, I'd be on him at the current odds. But he has - and he had to run a lot against both Diego and Juan Martin, quite late on both days as well, that might be a factor if this goes to the third set, which it very well might. If I was absolutely pushed to post a bet, I'd back Djokovic to win a set.

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I'm a little surprised to see Nadal so short (4/7 best price).  I know he's been playing better recently and appears to be getting stronger as the clay season progresses and was impressive against Tsitsipas in the semi.

Djokovic by contrast has been mugging about in some of his recent matches and should have lost to Del Potro in the quarters. But we know he raises his game massively when playing Nadal and has has the better of him in recent years, even on clay. 

I agree with you CP, although Nadal appears to be getting stronger, I still think he's missing something and I'm not convinced he can regain some of his old mojo. Djokovic is a bad match up for him, so at the prices I'll be on the Serb.

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