French Open 2018

[CzechPunter]

GGL + Paire won, Hsieh lost, not too bad. Adding a small double for tomorrow.

Johanna Larsson (vs. Mattek) + Shuai Zhang (vs. Kucova) at 1.79 with Marathonbet

Both are at least a class above on clay and I really am not worried about the small issues in their form books. Larsson has had enough time to recover from the finals given the Tuesday start and Zhang should be much more focused here than she was last week. Mattek is yet to do anything half-decent this season (and the conditions shouldn't help her at all) and Kucova has been playing on the lower levels for a while now, so I don't fancy their chances at all.

[WinningTipster]

2 picks for Ladies Roland Garros tomorrow matches:

GARCIA-6 games over DUAN @ 1.45 pinnacle
Garcia probably prefers faster surfaces but she is a top player on clay also. Duan can't play on clay.

SVITOLINA-KUZMOVA 2-0 SETS @1.34 pinnacle
Svitolina is one of the 2-3 favorites for the tournament for sure. Kuzmova is very talented young player but still not on the same level.

 

[divelloso]

Ebden M - Fabbiano T - Over 9.5 games in 5. set - 1.88 (rivalo)

Really hard to guess who is winning this match, Ebden is a good sever and Fabbiano plays better on clay. The game will be rescheduled so the players will be rested for 5 set. I don't think any of the players will have the service broken twice.

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @divelloso   

[bobix]

Back Stefanos Tsitsipas (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Did not really understand why Thiem "forced" himself to the final last week in Lyon, rather than saving his energy for the next (two?) week(s), but at least he got his reward and won the tournament. It was no surprise he went through the first round quite easily but will face a tricky opponent in the next turn. The Greek guy already caused him plenty of problems in their previous meetings, at these odds I definitely have to give it a try.

Back Benoit Paire (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Once again staying on the safe side and playing set handicap. Kei did not really impress me in the first round, in all honesty, I expected a stronger performance from him. He might have played good tennis in Rome, but at the same time is used to make matches difficult for himself. Stats are also on my side, Paire should be well able to take at least (!) one set in front of the home crowd.

Back Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Carreno Busta at 3.00 with Bet365

The set handicap seems to be obvious for me here, but now I will risk an play the money line. I am not at all impressed with the Spaniard recently. Shaky performance in Rome, not to mention Madrid and Estoril. Ok, Delbonis is not in a hell of form either, but he holds a decent H2H record, so let's see.

Back Martin Klizan to beat Gael Monfils at 2.45 with Marathonbet

Even if probably his main focus from the beginning of the season was to get in good shape for these weeks, I am not really sure about Monfils. Not because he dropped a set in the first round against an unknown player on the big stages, but the French fun-maker is no longer the player he used to be. This match can definitely go into 5 sets, maybe worth to risk a small amount on that, but I definitely think the Slovak has a good chance here.

[four-leaf]

11 hours ago, bobix said:

Back Stefanos Tsitsipas (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Did not really understand why Thiem "forced" himself to the final last week in Lyon, rather than saving his energy for the next (two?) week(s), but at least he got his reward and won the tournament. It was no surprise he went through the first round quite easily but will face a tricky opponent in the next turn. The Greek guy already caused him plenty of problems in their previous meetings, at these odds I definitely have to give it a try.

Back Benoit Paire (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Once again staying on the safe side and playing set handicap. Kei did not really impress me in the first round, in all honesty, I expected a stronger performance from him. He might have played good tennis in Rome, but at the same time is used to make matches difficult for himself. Stats are also on my side, Paire should be well able to take at least (!) one set in front of the home crowd.

Back Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Carreno Busta at 3.00 with Bet365

The set handicap seems to be obvious for me here, but now I will risk an play the money line. I am not at all impressed with the Spaniard recently. Shaky performance in Rome, not to mention Madrid and Estoril. Ok, Delbonis is not in a hell of form either, but he holds a decent H2H record, so let's see.

Back Martin Klizan to beat Gael Monfils at 2.45 with Marathonbet

Even if probably his main focus from the beginning of the season was to get in good shape for these weeks, I am not really sure about Monfils. Not because he dropped a set in the first round against an unknown player on the big stages, but the French fun-maker is no longer the player he used to be. This match can definitely go into 5 sets, maybe worth to risk a small amount on that, but I definitely think the Slovak has a good chance here.

You are going for some statistically good bets. I know Martin Klizan beat Gael Monfils in 3 sets when they met in the Rotterdam final so Martin is a good bet I hope and Stefanos surely will cause Dominic some more troubles.

[four-leaf]

Johanna Larsson to beat (-1.5 sets) Bettanie Mattek-Sands at 2.10 with bet365

I think this bet should have a decent chance of coming in today. Bettanie has played a few three set matches on clay, in fact 4 in a row and lost 3 of them but I don't think she will have as mutch chance to take a set of Johanna as she had in her 3 recent losses in Rome, Madrid and Rabat. She's also beaten Caroline Dolehide on the Madrid clay in qualies. This might be a risky bet but I think Johanna does have a quite decent chance of taking this in two. They've met twice and Johanna lost the first on hardcourt in 3 in Copenhagen and not surprisingly on Johannas favourite surface she won the other 7-5 6-2 on clay in Gstaad.

[yogg]

Fognini -1.5 sets and Lopez -1.5 sets

double @ 2.56 with Unibet

good luck all 

[CzechPunter]

Rain ruining everything today, including the court for Larsson/Mattek . The forecast not looking great either.

[divelloso]

I think is a good opportunity to bet on Larsson after the rain, 2,4x

[CzechPunter]

Hard to say. Larsson was better at the start, but didn't convert her chances. Then they started messing around with the court and Mattek took the initiative. Anything can happen after the break, rain delays tend to do crazy things to WTA matches.

[bobix]

For decent odds definitely worth to back Larsson. Mattek-Sands probably the most unreliable player (at least for me) in the WTA circuit. Can easily lose from set and break(s) up. Also, as CzechPunter highlighted the rain delay can do "wonders"  keeping my fingers crossed for you! Come on!

[CzechPunter]

Magdalena Rybarikova to beat Belinda Bencic at 1.53 with Bet365

Watched a bit of Bencic in the first round and she was way off as expected, especially early on. She's going to get better as the season progresses, but this showdown should be way too early for her with Rybarikova being one of the more crafty players. Chiesa wasn't really able to exploit Bencic's weakness, but Rybarikova is experienced and skillful enough to do that. I'd be shocked to see Bencic win this (although it would certainly help my pre-season bet on her).

Fernando Verdasco to beat Guido Andreozzi at 1.96 with Unibet

Martin Klizan to beat Gael Monfils at 2.40 with Unibet

Ernests Gulbis to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.78 with Pinnacle

I'm obviously not exactly thrilled to be backing this particular trio of players, but I'd say that the odds are worth the risk at the end of the day, as they have enough class to beat their opponents if they are at least somewhat focused, which they should be after fighting so hard in the first round. Andreozzi is one of the more overrated players imo, Monfils has no form whatsoever, and Berrettini is still choky on the big stage (his performance against Zverev in Rome comes to mind).

[yogg]

Van Uytvanck A. vs Wallace I.

Wallace makes her Grand slam debut and has never faced a top 50 player! 

Van Uytvanck -7.5 games @ 2.65 with 10Bet

Van Uytvanck -10.5 games @ 12.00 with PaddyPower

I think Wallace will be lucky to get zero!

[bobix]

6 hours ago, four-leaf said:

You are going for some statistically good bets. I know Martin Klizan beat Gael Monfils in 3 sets when they met in the Rotterdam final so Martin is a good bet I hope and Stefanos surely will cause Dominic some more troubles.

I've highlighted mostly the statistical side of my picks. Sorry, I am too lazy to write a longer analysis and go into deeper details... I also had Hurkacz and Marterer for today, but of course did not post them... This usually means the rest of the picks will fail xD

[yogg]

1 minute ago, bobix said:

I've highlighted mostly the statistical side of my picks. Sorry, I am too lazy to write a longer analysis and go into deeper details... I also had Hurkacz and Marterer for today, but of course did not post them... This usually means the rest of the picks will fail xD

don't be lazy I'm sure I'm not the only one who enjoys reading your analysis. 

[yogg]

omg, anyone seen what Serena's wearing? 

not even a pocket for a spare ball.

I won't mention her arse 

[yogg]

9 hours ago, yogg said:

Fognini -1.5 sets and Lopez -1.5 sets

double @ 2.56 with Unibet

good luck all 

 

5 hours ago, yogg said:

Van Uytvanck A. vs Wallace I.

Wallace makes her Grand slam debut and has never faced a top 50 player! 

Van Uytvanck -7.5 games @ 2.65 with 10Bet

Van Uytvanck -10.5 games @ 12.00 with PaddyPower

I think Wallace will be lucky to get zero!

a very good day for me with lopez spoiling it slightly 

[yogg]

Kyle was brilliant today, still 80/1

 

[four-leaf]

Diego Schwartzman to beat (-2.5 sets) Adam Pavlasek at 2.00 with bet365

I don't get many bets correct these days but this one I think I have a pretty good chance of landing. Pavlasek just beat the non-clay player Mirza Basic and it didn't surprise too many people I think. I was not surprised by it happening myself at least, he mostly did what he was supposed to do as he is the better clay player of the two. But here Adam will face a guy who's got a game in the class of top 10 clay players this season. I saw Diego playing in first round where he beat Calvin Hemery pretty nicely, he played as solid on serve that you simply have to wonder how far can he go in RG 2018. He went out in a 5 set match to Nole last season but I think he's improved his game a lot and doesn't lose sets easily to guys ranked below 50 in the world. He's now ranked 12 and I suspect we might see him even closer to top 10 soon or he will break the top 10. For me he is too solid in his game to lose a set to this czech even though he is kind of specialized on clay. Adam simply is a few levels below Diego so Diego has a pretty good chance of taking it without droping a set. But there can be some tight sets here with tie-breaks to come or maybe even Diego can lose a set by a break so watch out for that because it can get tough as always with small margins deciding the winner of a set. But having seen Diego playing as good as he did in first round made me confident that he can win next round in 3 sets but I count on Adam to make this bet hard to bring home so I'm a bit worried but I trust Diego at the same time. So all in all this might get tricky but I'm hoping Diego plays solid enough to break Adams serve a few times.

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter if Leo Mayer beats Julien Benneteau easily in 3 straight I can consider taking Leo to beat JMDP who even admited on Eurosport that he doesn't like clay after his match against Nico Mahut.

[CzechPunter]

@four-leaf Could happen, but JMDP isn't a guy that would give up easily.

[owenclass]

Gilles Simon vs Sam Querrey

Over 40.5 games 10/11 paddy power

I think this is going to be a long match as they both are evenly matched and I can't see any of them not winning a set. So expect a four or five set match especially on this surface 

Martin Klizan vs Gael Monfils 

Over 39.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I will be surprised if this match does not go to five sets as both these players are not really in top form and this is clay so expect plenty of breaks of serve and long rallies as well 

Edited May 30, 2018 by owenclass

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

@CzechPunter if Leo Mayer beats Julien Benneteau easily in 3 straight I can consider taking Leo to beat JMDP who even admited on Eurosport that he doesn't like clay after his match against Nico Mahut.

That admission by JMDP is more reason why JMDP should be backed against anybody. I wont be fooled by bluff talk. There was huge talk before the Mahut match about this same story that people were actually thinking Mahut to win or Del Potro to retire. It was neither. What we saw instead was a strong powerful and determined giant barging his way to victory. It was already obvious by the end of the third set that Delboy was in full control, yet he still kept pumping his fist after every shot. You could see the emotion at the end after he won. If you have any doubts, Del Potro has only played 5 matches on clay this year where he is 3/5. Just look at the kind of quality he played against there and look at the scores in each of those games and you will understand why you must let sleeping dogs lie!

Edited May 29, 2018 by liquidglass

[liquidglass]

KUZMOVA VS SVITOLINA

This is one game that has a whole lot of expectation wrapped around it for all that it threatens to deliver. Both players are in form with a h2h record of 8-2 each way. Svitolina would clearly seem to have the better form classwise although I feel Kuzmova will attend this conference well prepared. Surely among the formidable array of young ladies that have sprung up in modern day tennis, I believe it is high time we witnessed some of that quality. Kumova looks to be a young woman with a matured head on her shoulders. I strongly believe that she will not go down without covering the handicap or going over the total games. Verdict: Total games over 18.5

[four-leaf]

Yulia Putintseva to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.61 with bet365

Seems like Yulia is good to go here and ready for another deep run in RG but she might not reach the quarters like in 2016 but maybe 4th round. In this match she is up against the RG inexperienced Jen Brady, last season Jen pushed Kiki Mladenovic in round one to lose 9-7 in deciding set. Other than that Jen only had one appearance in RG qualies losing to Daniela Hantuchova 2016. She's getting better defenitely but clay is not a surface I think she is supposed to be good on and it shows with recent losses in every clay tournament to better ranked players and even a loss to lower ranked player Silvia Soler Espinosa. Clay is most likely not her best surface but Yulia is pretty good on clay and right now I rate Yulia a level above Jen.

[four-leaf]

Sam Querrey to beat Gilles Simon at 1.90 with bet365

The bookies don't have a clue who's gonna win this match. No lean in any direction, completely even but I think Sam is closer to the win because of the following: Sam has played god awful tennis in his last 4 tournaments, winning just one match.

However, somehow, he came out and dominated a very good player in Frances Tiafoe in the first round. It was a completely different player on the court, and I can't help but think that the same player shows up against Gilles and then Gilles is likely toast. They have a pretty even head to head record, with Gilles ahead 4-3. Gilles posted a nice result in Lyon last tournament, making it to the finals, but it should be noted that he faced little competition along the way with his best win coming against the 85th ranked player in the world in Cam Norrie. I simply think Sam digs deep, and pulls off a second round win because with the right attitude Sam is nowadays better than Gilles even on clay but only if he comes in with the right mindset which I'm hoping he will do here.

[owenclass]

4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Sam Querrey to beat Gilles Simon at 1.90 with bet365

The bookies don't have a clue who's gonna win this match. No lean in any direction, completely even but I think Sam is closer to the win because of the following: Sam has played god awful tennis in his last 4 tournaments, winning just one match.

However, somehow, he came out and dominated a very good player in Frances Tiafoe in the first round. It was a completely different player on the court, and I can't help but think that the same player shows up against Gilles and then Gilles is likely toast. They have a pretty even head to head record, with Gilles ahead 4-3. Gilles posted a nice result in Lyon last tournament, making it to the finals, but it should be noted that he faced little competition along the way with his best win coming against the 85th ranked player in the world in Cam Norrie. I simply think Sam digs deep, and pulls off a second round win because with the right attitude Sam is nowadays better than Gilles even on clay but only if he comes in with the right mindset which I'm hoping he will do here.

Do you think this match will go to five sets as it looks like a match that it could be a classic. I also don't know who will win it. But would you say that Simon has got the edge because he is better on clay 

[four-leaf]

Carla Suárez Navarro to beat (-1.5 sets) Maria Sakkari at 2.25 with bet365

This bet is about which player that plays the best tennis right now. Carla has been pretty good in RG every year she's played, at least third round she's reached every year except one year when she went out in first round to Olga Govortsova. I think her form this season has look pretty good and she could easily repeat her straight sets win over Maria from last years RG here. Carla have 2-0 record over Maria with their second meeting just last year in RG. I expected more from Maria in RG but she dissapointed in first round to Mandy Minella when she could'nt cover a 5.5 handicap. She wasn't playing well enough to make me believe she will challenge Carla here in her next match. Meanwhile Carla breezed through her first round over Ana Konjuh by 6-0 6-1. She's defenitely playing well enough now to make this in 2 sets and Maria didn't play well enough to take a set from Carla. If Maria wants to win this she better have her accuracy on a high level which was not the case in first round. She just missed to many balls and gave away points, if she does the same here it's Carla for the win in 2.

[four-leaf]

8 minutes ago, owenclass said:

Do you think this match will go to five sets as it looks like a match that it could be a classic. I also don't know who will win it. But would you say that Simon has got the edge because he is better on clay 

Gilles have won a few clay titles and a few hardcourt titles outdoors and indoors. Most recently in Pune but you're asking if Gilles is the better player on clay I'd say no right now, it's even steven and ofcourse from the odds view it looks like a match that could go to five sets but it's not that easy, it can easily end in 3-4 sets with a good display from Sam or equally bad from Sam. I think it's about which Sam that shows up. If the better one shows up I think Sam wins in 4 maximum as I see him as the better player overall nowadays.